Newbie 2090 (Game Over)

[furtiveglance]

Marci please claim, I want to bring down the hammer

[marcistar]

However I'm not certain She's scum anymore.

Why'd you say this originally? Without reasons it just looks like your chickening out.

[furtiveglance]

Marci pls claim role!!!

[TTTT]

Marci your next post should claim your role or state that you are refusing to claim

Furtive - if she claims do not hammer yet
we need to discuss no matter the claim
I have no problem with you hammering if she doesn't claim in her next post
but that's just me
not sure how others will see it

[TTTT]

changing topics...
not a fan of BigTerp's push on me
or his reading of Goldie's posts

[PlmPestPlaY]

This thread has gotten really chaotic hasn't it?

[TTTT]

the closer it gets to an end of day the more interesting it gets

[furtiveglance]

The more it devolves

[TTTT]

PPP are you opposed to a marci elim here?
you haven't really talked about her since you said it was interesting that she didn't jump on your wagon when it started looking bad for her
at that time you said you had scumleaned her before that
but I don't see where you've came out with an updated read on marci since then

[Lukewarm]

It looks like Marci is the elim today, but I would appreciate one more round of Goldfish posts before the day ends. I have a couple hanging questions for them that I would like answered

[PlmPestPlaY]

PPP are you opposed to a marci elim here?

I find marcistar's posts the least helpful. So no, I'm not opposed. I guess statistics still say marcistar is more likely town, but that doesn't matter.

[PlmPestPlaY]

Will just say this though.

Mr Turtle could you expand on why you scum-read furtiveglance after #1 scum-reading marcistar, who you said made the most well thought out case against furtiveglance?

The furtiveglance read and the marcistar read are largely independent. I thought marcistar's post on furtiveglance was the townies thing she had done up to that point and I agreed with some of the reasonings in the post. I don't see the need to do associative reads before we have a concrete alignment flip. With that being said, I'd like to revisit my scum and town leans (including furtiveglance) soon.

Are those reads independant though? If furtiveglance and marcistar are both mafia, that would mean marcistar made "the most well thought-out case in the game" against the other mafia player. Do you think that is something marcistar would do?

[Mr Turtle]

Spoiler:

I've decided to ISO Lukewarm to see if I was able to move them out of my null range.

Regarding marcistar

: During the first twenty four hours of the game, Lukewarm pretty much waits for her to show up (11, 77 & 157) with the reasoning that she is "easiest to read in the very start of the game, before she has found her footing". What I don't like about this is that they barely do anything and it feels as though they are hiding behind said reasoning to not do anything. Having someone to meta read at the beginning of the game makes it easier to "get into" the game so to speak, but it's also an easy way for scum to look busy. Then Luke has a bit of a back and forth of friendly banter with marcistar (160 & 164) and paired with their hyper-focus regarding their interactions with her (162 & 282), I deem them unlikely to be mafia partners. Note that when 164 was posted, 7 out of 10 posts in Luke's ISO had explicitly mentioned, quoted or been about marcistar. Later, Luke starts defending marcistar based on meta reads (286 & 299), claiming that most of her lack of vote and joke scumfession were NAI. In 294 they post their first concrete read on marcistar as "null scum". To me, this progression seems a bit messy, which I rate as being more likely towny than not. In 313, Luke voices his distaste with the E-1 vote, something which I also see as towny. They then make a non-read on marci by saying that they "want to hold off comitting to a read on her" and place them in their null range (317 & 318). Furthermore, Luke cements marcistar's null position by defending their retracted vote and subtly defending her (347, 348 & 352). I like Luke trying to slow the thread down on the marcistar wagon, it doesn't strike me as benefiting the mafia. 396, 399 & 400 are used to defend marci once again based on their scum reads, however Luke backtracks a bit by saying "I don't think that this is a slam dunk Marci is town case". I am not overjoyed by the hedginess on marcistar since a lot of Luke's posts have been used defending her. The hedginess is continued in 412, the posts 413, 414, 415 & 419 are meta dives into marci's past games, but Luke admits that he doesn't have any reliable meta tells and thus marcistar stays in the null range.

Conclusion

: Lukewarm spends a lot of time and posts semi-defending marcistar by dismissing many reasons for scum reading her as NAI while staying null throughout the entire game (minus the occasional "maybe town" or "maybe scum" comment). What makes me dislike the null read especially is the fact that I count 25-30 posts made that more or less directly have to do with marci in a 70 post ISO. With that being said, I don't think that Luke can be mafia if marcistar is. No-one enters the thread and spends a third of their posts on their scum buddy. Overall, I rate Luke's interactions with marci as lean town for them. If marci is town, I'm going to scrutinize Luke some more. Outside of the associative reads, I understand that Luke latches on to the player they best know to post about. This is something I would do as well. However, I'm a bit disappointed that the reads always end nullish.

General thoughts

: On the other hand, the rest of Luke's ISO has been quite towny since their reappearance 281. I don't want to dwell on this as long as the Luke-marci interactions, but I have a couple comments here as well. What stuck out to me the most was Luke not going with the flow. When Luke reemerged at 281, their reads were independent from thread consensus. Multiple reads lists had been posted, it would have been really easy to simply "copy" them without having anyone really bat an eye. But Luke didn't, instead they scum-cased Somnus and placed a scum lean on BigTerp in 316. The lock-town on TTTT also doesn't benefit scum!Luke (420). As mafia, Luke would want to either
a) push for TTTT to get lynched, or
b) night-kill TTTT without having a strong connection tied to the kill.
But by putting TTTT as their highest town, scum!Luke wouldn't be able to do a) or b) without receiving suspicion. The fact that Luke town-locked TTTT without having pressure on them to do so makes me feel better about them.

Conclusion

:

I'm comfortable with putting Luke as a town read

. What Luke lacks in towniness regarding their marcistar read they make up with their other posts. Particularly if marci turns out to be mafia it will make me more confident in my Luke read. They have just had a towny thread presence in this game.

Would you null-lean Lukewarm, if marcistar flipped town?

If marcistar flips town, I'd be more cautious of Luke. Scum!Luke benefits from not committing on a read on marcistar. At the same time Luke has been towny in areas not pertaining marci. So to answer your question, yes I'd move Luke down to a town lean or null range if marcistar flips town.

Will just say this though.

Mr Turtle could you expand on why you scum-read furtiveglance after #1 scum-reading marcistar, who you said made the most well thought out case against furtiveglance?

The furtiveglance read and the marcistar read are largely independent. I thought marcistar's post on furtiveglance was the townies thing she had done up to that point and I agreed with some of the reasonings in the post. I don't see the need to do associative reads before we have a concrete alignment flip. With that being said, I'd like to revisit my scum and town leans (including furtiveglance) soon.

Are those reads independant though? If furtiveglance and marcistar are both mafia, that would mean marcistar made "the most well thought-out case in the game" against the other mafia player. Do you think that is something marcistar would do?

When I say independent, I mean that I read them independently. Yes, if marcistar flips mafia, I think that makes furtiveglance look much better. I don't think marcistar makes her first case on her scum buddy.

But

I see no reason for me to find furtiveglance scummy and then dismissing it because marci cased them.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

PPP: something is very off about their posting, they seem desperate to get somnus voted off, I wonder if it is a bus.

Why do you jump to him being desperate to bus his partner vs desperate to save his partner (Marci) vs wanting to look like he was trying to stop a town miselimin (Marci) depending on how she flips?

That's a good point that honestly didn't occur to me because as I said in 590, the busing thing is what I would have done.

@Goldie, what changed in the like 20 mins between these posts?

TTTT accused me of possibly being scum with Marcistar and I freaked out.

Lots of questions.

Why were you certain to begin with?
What changed your mind to being uncertain?
What prodded you towards putting it back?

So firstly I originally unvoted Marcistar because I wasn't ready for the day to end since I only just joined and I wanted to interact more with some players and get reads. NOT because I didn't think she was scum.

I wasn't certain to begin with, to be clear I'm very confused about what is going on here which is why I was asking a lot of questions.

However I'm not certain She's scum anymore.

Why'd you say this originally? Without reasons it just looks like your chickening out.

I said this because I realised I had 3 different people who I thought were scum and there can only be 2 mafia which means that one of those people is actually town.

[Lukewarm]

@Goldie, what changed in the like 20 mins between these posts?

TTTT accused me of possibly being scum with Marcistar and I freaked out.

This is an unexpectedly candid answer. Thank you.

Well I'm not informed, it's just the most obvious scumteam right now, which is never usually the case.

Putting a pin in this.

Have a response, but think it bad to express right this second

To pull the pin back out of this - Furtive, this is basically why.

Reading through Goldfish's trajectory at the time, my read of the situation was that she got spooked at the suggestion that she was scum with Marci and that was the reason for my questions. (and why I did not want to express that that was my read until after she responded, hence the pin in our conversation).

Getting spooked at the suggestion that they were a team obviously makes more sense if they are the team (I think that TTTT and I were picking up the same thing here) - So, to see you shoot it down that no one would seriously consider that team definitely raised my eyebrows.

[Lukewarm]

@Goldie, what changed in the like 20 mins between these posts?

TTTT accused me of possibly being scum with Marcistar and I freaked out.

This is an unexpectedly candid answer. Thank you.

Not sure I know how to feel about it with her being this open with it though. Definitely something to think about over the night phase.

It seems that Marci has chosen not to claim

VOTE: Marci

Spoiler: @furtive

no hammer for you

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

@Goldie, what changed in the like 20 mins between these posts?

TTTT accused me of possibly being scum with Marcistar and I freaked out.

This is an unexpectedly candid answer. Thank you.

Not sure I know how to feel about it with her being this open with it though. Definitely something to think about over the night phase.

It seems that Marci has chosen not to claim

VOTE: Marci

Spoiler: @furtive

no hammer for you

I don't like this. You didn't post an intent to hammer before hand and you haven't waited for Marci to claim (although Marcistar has been given lots of time to claim and hasn't yet so they probably had it coming)

This said please note this is not intended to accuse Lukewarm of being scum I still town/null lean them. I just thought per game etiquette there was supposed to be more warning before the hammer vote.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

Actually I just read over the rules in the beginning, intent to hammer isn't required. So it's fine, ignore my last post.

[marcistar]

"chosen not to claim"
bruh i literally just got home from work what

But anyways its fine yall wouldnt get off my ass no matter what I say so this is needed.

[marcistar]

Bet you they'll ignore my reads too!

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

Bet you they'll ignore my reads too!

Can you give us some reads?????

[TTTT]

"chosen not to claim"
bruh i literally just got home from work what

But anyways its fine yall wouldnt get off my ass no matter what I say so this is needed.

you posted after intent to hammer was given
boo-hoo

no last minute thoughts?

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

no last minute thoughts?

The fact that Marcistar isn't giving any is very suspicious

[TTTT]

yeah I think this is >50% chance of being a red flip

[TTTT]

and if it is that tells us the partner is more likely an inexperienced player because they didn't craft a fake claim