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[Yeet]

Malcolm why are you just sitting on your vanity wagon with 2.5 days to deadline but not pushing me?

[VP Baltar]

VP what would you be doing differently if you were scum this game?

Not listing so many people off and drawing so much attention to myself. I probably would have played nice with Nero earlier and wouldn't have opened the day in a very aggressive manner. I'd be calling town players who are on the wrong track smart and be playing with my long term survivability in mind.

[VP Baltar]

It seems like the case is basically that Galron is stupid then?

No. Math was suspicious of skitter before and he thinks galron made a TMI error, which happens all the time to scum.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so I checked the timestamps and what Galron is saying does check out, at least chronologically.

I told galron at 9:38am (my time) that Math was a mason.

At 9:52 am, galron posts his Math "looks like he is town".

I think if you're being generous to galron, that could read as him lumping a bunch of ideas together into a single post. In that case, he would be saying something like 'I read the last few pages, here is what I think, oh and regardless Math is town.'

You could also interpret that post as galron trying to give a town read of Math for town points, but my thought would probably just leave it in the NAI bin since we can't know for sure.

[Yeet]

VP what would you be doing differently if you were scum this game?

Not listing so many people off and drawing so much attention to myself. I probably would have played nice with Nero earlier and wouldn't have opened the day in a very aggressive manner. I'd be calling town players who are on the wrong track smart and be playing with my long term survivability in mind.

Yeah, this kind of checks out, honestly. I'm once again fine with you being town here.

[Cape90]

Malcolm why are you just sitting on your vanity wagon with 2.5 days to deadline but not pushing me?

probably because he is town.

Profound idea I had there

[Yeet]

Malcolm why are you just sitting on your vanity wagon with 2.5 days to deadline but not pushing me?

probably because he is town.

Profound idea I had there

?

[MalcolmTucker]

I am at the bottom of page 123 and

at that point

I think I have more or less developed reads that look like this:

Town reads: Nero, VP, Enchant, fire, STD, Deas

Almost-Town: Yeet, Malcolm

Can't decide: Scorp, Datisi, skitter, April, Cape

Scum leans: tene, frog

Note that these are mostly impressions although claims do play a part of it. Also names in each category are not necessarily ordered

VOTE: Malcolm

Willing to give this a try but I reserve the right to retract my vote if I am not satisfied with the result.

Malcolm why are you just sitting on your vanity wagon with 2.5 days to deadline but not pushing me?

Quite simply I've just not bothered changing yet - if VP is going out I'm okay with that but you've been a bigger mafia read for me so far. I generally only vote sparingly whenever I play anyway, and aware VP's votes are building up so not necessarily wanting to just jump in and let someone hammer if there are any last minute changes to be had.

But if it makes you happy:

UNVOTE: Yeet

[Cape90]

tene's suspicion on people on scorp doesn't make sense either, i don't see why scum would try so hard to get a nothingburger slot limmed over one of the two wagons people posting

I think this line of thinking only works if both VP and Malcolm are mafia (as far as tene's suspicion on scorp.

I am glad someone is on the same page as me, and I would not have expected that person to be Save the Dragons

[MalcolmTucker]

Sorry did not mean to quote Eyes above - was in regards to a different post re their varying suspicion of me so far, and how it kinda suddenly flipped, with Eyes' excuse for that being fairly poor. But yeah, that addresses Yeet's enquiry anyway.

[MalcolmTucker]

VP what would you be doing differently if you were scum this game?

Not listing so many people off and drawing so much attention to myself. I probably would have played nice with Nero earlier and wouldn't have opened the day in a very aggressive manner. I'd be calling town players who are on the wrong track smart and be playing with my long term survivability in mind.

Yeah, this kind of checks out, honestly. I'm once again fine with you being town here.

I kinda feel like quite a few players are TR'ing VP without making a particularly substantive or developed case for him being so that might implicate anyone else. Mostly it's just "I'd be sad to see VP eliminated" or "he's town" but VP himself is the only one who has particularly made a strong "VP town" case.

[Cape90]

Malcolm why are you just sitting on your vanity wagon with 2.5 days to deadline but not pushing me?

probably because he is town.

Profound idea I had there

?

Oh

I thought you were referring to 2 different people in 4277 and not just yourself twice. Which is kinda odd like, wouldn't voting a vanity wagon that is you

be

a push on you?

Not sure I like Malcolm's unvote on you right after that to be fair with you

[MalcolmTucker]

Malcolm why are you just sitting on your vanity wagon with 2.5 days to deadline but not pushing me?

probably because he is town.

Profound idea I had there

?

Oh

I thought you were referring to 2 different people in 4277 and not just yourself twice. Which is kinda odd like, wouldn't voting a vanity wagon that is you

be

a push on you?

Not sure I like Malcolm's unvote on you right after that to be fair with you

I think it's fair enough - for the moment it seems fairly evident Yeet isn't going to go out unless anyone else in potentially willing to join me on that wagon at all. If they aren't then it's a completely wasted vote and I'm best reconsidering. As stated before I generally vote sparingly in most games anyway and will assess any larger wagons before jumping on them. If we're at an impasse and struggling for numbers I'd be happy to put through the VP wagon to move the game on. But Yeet would still be my first choice for elimination if the game as a whole was open to an elimination other than me, Scorpious or VP at this stage with the deadline nearing.

[Nero Cain]

isn't 4280 against new site rules? It's kinda dumb though, the rule.

[MalcolmTucker]

Also to address Yeet's point - I have pushed them regularly and if they want I'm happy to continue doing so, but I'd say I've made most of my main points for now and the wagon does not appear to be convincing anyone for this turn even if it may work next round. What else is there for me to say? If I kept on at Yeet constantly right now I'd likely be accused of tunnelling them in a way that'd be perceived as unhelpful. Also I've just generally not been active and I haven't made a lot of posts in the past couple of days.

[Cape90]

Going through the hood, wrt 3610, it's not like Baltar is scum reading Nero in there, but Nero is scum reading him. At least Baltar hasn't said he's scumreading, because it does look like he is, but it seems to me it just as easily could be a case of town trying to give a generous reading of what Nero is posting.

VP was blatantly scumreading Nero day 1, but swapped focus to me today when I hammered the vote on GeneralWu yesterday. Who which was going to be distracting everyone anyways if left alive that day 1, which was also highly unlikely

[VP Baltar]

EBWOP (ie, fuck you autocorrect)

VP what would you be doing differently if you were scum this game?

Not

pissing

so many people off and drawing so much attention to myself. I probably would have played nice with Nero earlier and wouldn't have opened the day in a very aggressive manner. I'd be calling town players who are on the wrong track smart and be playing with my long term survivability in mind.

[fireisredsir]

ok paranoid thought but what if it's cape and the reason he was hard scumreading VP but then lost interest when the wagon picked up is cause he doesn't actually want the flip cause that narrows down the hood. cape/malcolm seems very compelling to me tbh

[VP Baltar]

ok paranoid thought but what if it's cape and the reason he was hard scumreading VP but then lost interest when the wagon picked up is cause he doesn't actually want the flip cause that narrows down the hood. cape/malcolm seems very compelling to me tbh

Seems like we flip Malcom first in that scenario, right? A Malcom scum flip probably makes you look better and gives April big credit.

[fireisredsir]

if you mean malc before cape, then yes, cause starting a new wagon at this point is probs not a good idea. if you mean malc before you, then yes ofc we do bc in that world you are town. im not sure if it is a world i believe in or not but im thinking and rereading rn

[MalcolmTucker]

What I'd say re me/Cape is that they've quite strongly TR'd me in a way that would be a bit obvious and potentially OTT for someone who - if they're mafia from a town POV - seems to have played relatively well so far without coming under heavy suspicion. But I do accept there's nothing which would disassociate ourselves from each other - we've both consistently TR'd each other. That's honest on my part, would expect it is from Cape too but could obviously be playing well.

Part of me does wonder if we're looking in the wrong direction here. It's rightly pointed out above that we seem to have settled on one of three (maybe two) eliminations now and I'm interested as to why that's the case - feasibly there's no reason we can't develop further wagons or make fresh pushes but the game has notably quietened down, which makes me wonder if mafia are either in a place they're content with if VP is town, or if they feel the writing is on the wall with VP if they're mafia and don't want to double down on any major defence of countervote which could seem suspect in retrospect if said person were to come back town.

And for that I can't figure out in my mind re a VP wagon. The defences of him feel soft and non-committal, in a way that could either be mafia not wanting to stop the bandwagon without wanting to seem too keen for it if VP is town, but which could also be perceived as mafia teammates offering soft defences of their buddy without going into too many specifics.

But I do worry how much we'll actually find out if VP comes back town post-elimination. A lot of the mafia reads of VP have felt genuine in a way that could be feigned by potential mafia members. Likewise I don't feel as if anyone has batted for VP to an extent or in a way which clears them, could be an easy way to grab some town cred given VP has been under pressure for so much of the turn.

There is a part of me which wonders if I'm the best elimination from an info POV if VP isn't mafia - when I come back town you get to see who pushed me and when and why they did so, how they were wrong and in what way, and how others reacted as a result given the push was mostly out of nowhere and has never been backed up by any solid logic - even now half of my voters are players who admit they don't even suspect me all that much but obviously see me as the only alternative now to a VP wagon. There's some potentially interesting stuff in there - Yeet, April, Eyes and fire would all come out from it looking quite poor I reckon, although obviously not all of them are going to be mafia.

If VP was definitely confirmed town in my mind I'd maybe push more strongly on this but it's the fact they're still in my top three/four mafia reads without being nailed on that makes me unsure. Could be a convoluted way to just throw an easy escape to mafia.

[MalcolmTucker]

if you mean malc before cape, then yes,

cause starting a new wagon at this point is probs not a good idea

. if you mean malc before you, then yes ofc we do bc in that world you are town. im not sure if it is a world i believe in or not but im thinking and rereading rn

I won't push this too extensively, because it doesn't look like it's going to go anywhere, but why is this an inherently bad idea?

It seems like common consensus right now that a lot of us are inherently unsure about the top three potential vote-outs in the game. Why have we not spent our time, as a result of this, trying to deduce potential alternatives when we had around half a week remaining to do so? The game has slowed down - who is inherently benefiting from this and why? I just find it interesting that a lot of players seem to have stopped pushing any new potential wagons and seem content with a state of play we're agreeing is less than satisfactory. Maybe it's just the confusion with all the replace-ins, hard to tell.

[DeasVail]

then again ig he did disappear last friday too so maybe that's just an irl schedule thing. kinda weird tho that he said multiple times "i will defend myself tomorrow!!" and then never came back

On this, I think that if he didn't have support this would make more sense, but I think it is very encouraging for scum to have even one vocal town member saying they're not scum, so I feel like even me saying that I thought Malcolm could be more likely town would... motivate him somewhat if he were scum. An exception could be if he and VP were both scum, which would be understandably demotivating.

[MalcolmTucker]

then again ig he did disappear last friday too so maybe that's just an irl schedule thing. kinda weird tho that he said multiple times "i will defend myself tomorrow!!" and then never came back

On this, I think that if he didn't have support this would make more sense, but I think it is very encouraging for scum to have even one vocal town member saying they're not scum, so I feel like even me saying that I thought Malcolm could be more likely town would... motivate him somewhat if he were scum. An exception could be if he and VP were both scum, which would be understandably demotivating.

I'd argue that in general it's still a comfortable minority who have actually been suspecting me at all. You've TR'd me. Cape has largely TR'd for me as well. If I remember correctly Nero hasn't exactly been behind the case. Until April started suspecting me I'd basically been subjected to little pressure throughout the game so far barring the occasional vote. And even now only two players voting for me remain confident I'm actually mafia, with the main one who started it essentially admitting they had no effective case against me.

[DeasVail]

His play doesn't make sense coming from scum in this position. He's had multiple outs to get out of this, but he isn't really caring to change his reads too much, and have been pretty stagnant, which to me is coming across as town who's getting pushed, and has done a spider leap trying to hold themselves up between two walls to avoid falling after being thrown into an acid pit by his own townies.

I don't think the reads have been that stagnant. Frogsterking pet scumread turned into a fireisred pet scumread. Previously scumread tene but then stopped talking about that after me/fire backed off and is now treating tene as town. At least as of this post, remains fence-sitting re: Malcolm, probably hesitant to opportunistically switch wagons but also not wanting to close it off as an opportunity. It makes a fair bit of sense as scumplay to me