Large Normal 238 | Mafia Thread

[Titus]

Let's lim VP then.

[Titus]

Galron, you should claim a PR.

[Titus]

Nevermind

[Titus]

Ok we need you here.

[Titus]

Frogsterking why bus. Now you are forcing my hand

[Titus]

Yeet, psychologist?

[Frogsterking]

Frogsterking why bus. Now you are forcing my hand

I'm trying

[Frogsterking]

Yeet, psychologist?

Does psychologist report inno the same night the nightkill is sent in?

[Titus]

Invests after kills.

We may just kill yeet to frame Galron as innocent.

[Frogsterking]

Invests after kills.

We may just kill yeet to frame Galron as innocent.

We can always follow Yeet first to make sure.

[Titus]

Killing him and being wrong makes it look like we feared it anyway.

Also flashing eyes isn't serious. It's distancing. It should be too late.

[Frogsterking]

Okay we got VP back to e-3. I think it's going through.

[Titus]

As long as it's not Galron

[Titus]

Poor Math is tilted. :/

[Frogsterking]

First question to ask ourselves is how worried we are about a save on Math

[Titus]

I can just visit Math for my cover. Math will likely discredit himself. No one wants April. Galron is "cleared" if we shoot yeet, doubly so if he's the psychologist.

If we're wrong, we can say that scum must have thought yeet was an investigator so Galron is clear.

Then we just have me and eyes to worry about.

That's of course if the vig doesn't shoot.

We could have me cage Enchant and claim I visited Math.

[Titus]

Frogsterking kills yeet
Titus aliens Enchant
Eyes targets Nero

Subject to change

[Frogsterking]

I'm fine with this as a default plan, I'm probably going to sleep on it and suggest some changes tomorrow.

[Titus]

No problem. I just like actions early. I put subject to change so the mod knows they aren't locked.

[Eyes without a face]

My action is yours to direct

I agree shooting Yeet is best kill tonight and probing Enchant is a must so that's a good plan

[Mizzytastic]

Frogsterking kills yeet
Titus aliens Enchant
Eyes targets Nero

Subject to change

Assuming no changes ( ) these will happen

[Frogsterking]

tl;dr

I request that we

please

don't go through with the night kill on yeet and simply target Math or Enchant, and if you really like the idea of killing yeet to make galron look innocent, then follow yeet first tonight to verify yeet could have a role which might make the narrative believable.

So first I'd like to say that I love the plan of killing yeet as a concept; it's very creative, and like many brilliant innovative ideas, it has a significant chance of not working at all. This is the price of being creative! We can solve problems other people can't but we can also create problems for ourselves unintentionally.

In this case I'm skeptical that 1) yeet is actually an investigative 2) town will react in a way that's fortunate for us ie galron will actually be townread because of the nightkill 3) it's a good idea to leave Math alive until N4 or N5 4) the urgency is misplaced because if you think this same plan won't work if we try it on N4 then on it's not going to work if we try it on N3 either and 5) the best argument in favor of it, avoiding a protective role targeting Math, is better applied by targeting Enchant and conserving our role block shot for the protective role later.

1) yeet is the same player who delayed the start of the game because their original name was offensive to a Chinese player so the mods forced him to change it. Yeet is a little trolly in that they're very unconcerned with what others think and feel, yeet is also whimsical and probably creative himself. I think yeet is likely to be full of shit here. Some players pointed out yeet's earlier treatment of the galron slot suggested he didn't have an inno on him. I haven't verified this yet but am planning to do so this morning.

Another example; why are we assuming yeet's soft is real and luminary's isn't? Are we accepting all soft claims as true? No, so are we selecting which claims we believe and which claims we don't based on how likely they are to be true or based on how much we wish them to be true?

2) Scum team already made the mistake of assuming over-optimistic ideas about how town will react to our kills. For example, look in the scum chat how confident we were that fua/Enchant would be scumread because of our roleblock N1, and look how pushing this narrative at the start of D2 backfired on Datisi and skitter, many town players didn't buy the narrative at all and it actually increased the suspicion on the Datisi and skitter slots. Yes, there is some lasting suspicion toward Enchant which may or may not result in a mislim. Does that mean our plan worked? Not necessarily; notice how the suspicion is increasing over time toward all players including Datisi's slot, skitter's slot and the fua/Enchant slot. Suspicion is increasing toward everyone over time without a mech clear regardless of what we do or how logical the suspicion may be. We know that even if yeet is an investigative (which I find unlikely) galron can't be mech cleared.

I think the idea that galron will be pseudo-mech cleared because of yeet's death is only true in a best case scenario, and even in this best case scenario, galron isn't necessarily going to be trusted because of it. I think accelerating suspicion toward a particular slot and eliminating suspicion toward a slot are different objectives entirely, because players are already predisposed to become more suspicious, so those ideas may work better or at least happen anyway if our own narratives are rejected.

I think the idea that we will push a narrative about scum taking yeet seriously and we can expect town to just accept this is folly, I've seen no evidence that any of us have any influence over which narratives are accepted or rejected by town, save perhaps maybe April, our likely traitor. In fact, there's already evidence of the opposite, town is likely to reject whichever narratives we push and our slots will be held accountable for pushing them.

3) Math already heavily suspects 3 or 4 players on the scum team. One of the main slots Math suspects outside of our team is yeet, the slot we're currently proposing to flip.

N3 Enchant will likely need to be killed to prevent a shot. N4 we may need to kill a different power role such as the real psychologist, or a different TPR if yeet is indeed the real psychologist. I think there is a very high chance we'll have higher priority targets than Math for the following two nights in a row, meaning we will leave town with a living mech clear who is calling for our heads for two or three more day phases. Math showed some restraint D2 which, if you skim our scum PT, we weren't expecting him to do, and this did a lot to remedy his credibility with the other townies. We can say Math will do this or that or the townies won't believe him, but again, we don't know what Math is going to do or what the townies are going to believe. We and the other townies do know Math is mech clear and hostile toward Galron, Titus and April, and after a yeet kill, will have a potential distraction between him and us removed from the game.

Now points 4) and 5) are relatively straight forward. There's no urgency to execute this plan; if yeet is indeed the psychologist with an inno on galron then this information will always be beneficial to us. If yeet is not an investigative then revealing this to be true won't necessarily make galron be viewed as innocent, for all we know it will make galron suspected more, and we will be suspected for pushing the narrative, and town will get to keep some of their TPRs who hardclaimed on D1 for far more days than necessary. If you're worried about a protective role and want to wifom the kill then preserve the role block to deal with the protective and eliminate Enchant now instead of on N3 like we'll most likely need to. If you want to leave Enchant alive for the potential of a tinfoil mislim on D3 then kill the outted mech clear now because we have other pressing needs for our night kill in the future.

I don't personally buy yeet's claim at all and suggest ignoring it entirely unless I find some convincing evidence when I review the thread. If you really like this idea of trying to frame galron as innocent, then use our follow ability on yeet tonight to verify that they actually have a chance at being some role which might make the narrative believable. I think this is a fair compromise and this isn't my first choice for our follow ability but I can get behind it. After I review the thread I'll share if I've changed my mind about or yeet or I will suggest my first choice for a follow target.

[Titus]

I understand where you're coming from but yeet being an investigative is a

town lead idea

. While Math suspects the scumteam, he's largely ineffective.

The idea to shoot yeet covers if we're right and wrong. If he flips psychologist, the inno is practically confirmed.

If he doesn't flip psychologist, then scum shot him thinking he was because they shot him over conftown. Thus Galron town.

We only need one to live.

[Frogsterking]

I looked through April's iso to see if they indicated any plans they may have for D3. It looks like they intend to create a new wagon on DV or fire. I'm guessing this is with the intent to make a TvT cross between DV/fire and VP keeping us alive again regardless of who *wins*. I think killing Math is probably more helpful to this plan because Math may try to get a Alice or Galron wagon running. I think Math is viewed with far more credibility than Enchant or VP so Math leading on one of us is the main threat to our survival.

[Frogsterking]

I understand where you're coming from but yeet being an investigative is a

town lead idea

. While Math suspects the scumteam,

#1

he's largely ineffective.

The idea to shoot yeet covers if we're right and wrong.

#2

If he flips psychologist, the inno is practically confirmed.

#3

If he doesn't flip psychologist, then scum shot him thinking he was because they shot him over conftown. Thus Galron town.

We only need one to live.

#1

Regardless of how persuasive Math is, he is a mech clear who is active in the game thread pushing reads that are more correct than not. He will need to be killed eventually and can hurt us immediately depending on what he chooses to do which we can't predict. I want to take agency away from town, not give them chances to outplay us.

#2

If yeet is going to flip psychologist his report is going to help Galron regardless of when yeet is flipped. I think there is a lot of reason to suspect yeet is full of shit. We have the ability to verify this because of our scum pr. Why not investigate yeet tonight to confirm, then if he's lying he will become a suspect for town now or later. If he's real we'll know who he visited and that info can be used to set up a more convincing scum narrative with a fake claim.

#3

There is no reason to believe town will buy this narrative. Dats and skitter were suspected for pushing a scum narrative against fua/Enchant based on the night kill as well. There is no guarantee this backup plan will work. It's just as likely to backfire as it is to be successful. If yeet is VT or some shit role we will have made things easier for town instead of more difficult. We have the opportunity now to chain kill TPRs and be guaranteed to make things more difficult for town.