Large Normal 238 | Weiqi, Baduk, Go | Endgame

[fireisredsir]

wait also cape obv must have realized before the flip bc vp was talking about it in the hood

???

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Galron

No I haven’t read anything

Work is exploding

Have like zero time to post.

I still think Galron is scum.

[VP Baltar]

However, I don't expect all three of Nero/Frogster/Dragons to be scum. All three scum going in on an agency capture move is highly unlikely.

Sure, I'm kind of shooting the moon here I'm sure. In terms of confidence, I'd probably go Frogster>>>>Nero>>>>>>>>>Dragons.

I do feel good that frogster did not believe what he was doing around that wagon.

And I do think at least some scum were hyping Math because when he gets tilted it takes up a lot of oxygen.

[tenebrousluminary]

I don't like tene saying protect Math or else with an invest soft in the game.

I regret this now. I will refrain from doing this in the future.

[VP Baltar]

wait also cape obv must have realized before the flip bc vp was talking about it in the hood

???

He definitely knew overnight because I was talking about it a good amount

[Titus]

I don't like tene saying protect Math or else with an invest soft in the game.

I regret this now. I will refrain from doing this in the future.

Are you an alt or new?

[fireisredsir]

random question

if fua/enchant vig claim was fake, would their maf partners likely want to bus them, knowing they'll have to at some point anyway? probably depends on the maf players ig. but i remember thinking it was a lil weird the way that datisi was insistent on pushing fua/enchant day 2 when it will just get resolved later on

[DeasVail]

I would prefer to park the thought of potential Enchant-scum for now

[VP Baltar]

The biggest thing we need to do today is have the town find each other and block up. We can't really afford to miss today.

[Nero Cain]

if fua/enchant vig claim was fake, would their maf partners likely want to bus them,

on d2? doubt it

[MathBlade]

VP, I need a bit to review what you wrote.

Not a problem. It is a lot. I hate big cases like that, but it really stuck out in my notes, so I felt like this is a time I should wrote out all my thoughts.

Alright, I read most of your case. However, I don't expect all three of Nero/Frogster/Dragons to be scum. All three scum going in on an agency capture move is highly unlikely. Second, Nero is easily distractable and stubborn. He's not MathBlade levels of stubborn but still stubborn. A denial of a soft could come as much as pride rather than anything else. I don't see all three scum pushing a soft clear as they'd be boned if a flash wagon appeared. I'd look at people who pushed Galron exclusively as it was a sign they couldn't make content.

I do feel you cased DV the best in your post.

I don't like tene saying protect Math or else with an invest soft in the game.

Then there's scorpious and eyes.

The problem is I'm not left with an aggressive scum unless I am wrong somewhere.

I don’t like any of those three for scum

If I am wrong somewhere on VP/Galron/April/you could swap in tene

Yes I am aware Yeet checked Galron no I don’t really care his defense was that bad

AND having two scum in that hood makes hella sense if Galron is traitor.

Yes I am tunnelled but I really think VP+Galron is a thing and Galron slipped

[MathBlade]

Like that role PM from Yeet is a huge freaking clue that a traitor likely exists

So I really wanna nuke in the hood if at all possible

[Nero Cain]

yeah but even if Gal is a traitor its the main scum team thats a threat. Let's finally get out VP like we should have been done yesterday.

[Nero Cain]

like its me or VP today, one one of yes. VP is being a wus and won't vote me b/c he knows he can't win a 1v1 against me.

[tenebrousluminary]

We are not eliminating galron so please get off it.

[Nero Cain]

*vote

[MathBlade]

I have to go. Crit role 7th anniversary.

But I wanna see what boon does here. They’ve been quiet

I know it’s been a few hours but I want to see how they shift their reads.

Because they’re also a mighty fine elim.

Pedit: Nope I am AFK for a few hours. It can sit

I think VP is traitor to be clear.

[Nero Cain]

math....gal is either town or a traitor

[Cape90]

Can we talk Eyes for a sec?

So Eyes in 3750 they "are willing to give Malcolm a try" and they will unvote if they don't want them. Okay? In a list they gave PRIOR to voting Malcolm (3372), Eyes puts Malcolm as almost town.

Eyes was not pushing Malcolm earlier, they were pushing April... until 3740.

The most logical progression from voting April according to 3372 for Eyes to do is not to go to Malcolm, but to go to their... actual scum leans? Like tene and Frog right?

Malcom actually saw this in 3762 and Eyes' answer to this is

really

weak 4013, just being like, "well I moved you to unsure because I merged the almost town into my nulls" which sounds like "haha I must go consensus instead of actually pushing who I feel are mafia" to me .

Eyes never unvotes Malcolm from here even though there was a good amount of time between this and the end of the day.

VOTE: Eyes without a face

Boy I sure prefer this then killing April of all people

[Cape90]

How many normals have 3rd parties?

Asking because this is my first normal game here after all. Also because Nero seems to be discussing traitor (I have reservations with the Nero slot)

[fireisredsir]

math....gal is either town or a traitor

or did the n1 kill

[Nero Cain]

traitor can't carry out the scum teams kill

[Nero Cain]

How many normals have 3rd parties?

not that often, I think. Sometimes I see SK get sprinkled in but something like a survivor is super rare.

[Cape90]

Ok, so I spent a lot of time overnight reviewing the Galron wagon, the counter push onto me, and Malcom's elimination yesterday. I have shared this case with my hood already. Nero has called it garbage.

Given that both my wagon and Malcom's wagon were two town being pushed, I think the chaos of the Galron wagon and Yeet soft are highly likely to have thrown scum into a bit of confusion when they had a comfortable position of two town being run up.

I'm still thinking this through, so bear with me if this gets a little long winded. I'll put a tl;dr at the end.

The big takeaway here is that I think the scum team is probably Nero/Frogster/Dragons/????

---

Phase 1: Galron wagon into Yeet soft

So this all starts around 4433 when fire off hand suggests a "flash wagon" on glaron. Math picks this up and runs with it 4440. This arises when Galron comes in and drops a vote on Malcom with little explanation, tipping the weight of the day toward Malcom. I would call these reasonable responses to Galron's vote.

We then get a series of votes from Cape, fire, tenebros and Enchant. 4442444444464447

I then join the Galron wagon because I wasn't super satisfied with the malcom wagon. 4457

Meanwhile, Nero is calling galron scum, but not willing to join the wagon for some reason. 44534455[pos]4456[/post]4462

Yeet starts his soft in 4470 by saying "absolutely not on Galron." Nero pushes back. I pick up on the soft at the top of page 180, when Yeet says again he is "*staunchly opposed*" to Galron. 4475 The weirdness of the language was a dead giveaway that Yeet had some kind of info pointing to Galron town. We can see now from the NK that I was right.

I unvote in 4478, and we firmly enter Phase 2 of this wagon, which I'll call the scramble.

----

Phase 2: The scramble

There is a lot of Yeet and myself trying to guide people gently away from the Galron wagon at this point without being anymore explicit than Yeet already has been.

Unfortunately, Math doesn't know what is going on and starts promoting a wild ass theory that Galron and me are scum together. 4499 This is key because the scum had been wanting me dead yesterday and this gives them the cover of a mason to come back at me. From my perspective, scum completely bungle this next part, however.

question I have during this time:

fire, can you tell me which post specifically you figured out that Yeet was softing?

Back to my main thoughts: DV comes in post 4525 to pump up Math. I'm very suspicious of people doing this at this time because I don't believe the scum team had picked up on the soft yet, and Math's theory is potentially pushing a new town lim, leaving Malcom/VP for a tasty D3 dueling town wagon again. It's a dream scum scenario.

Nero starts to fight with Yeet a little bit. I perceive this as Nero getting annoyed at the galron interference coming from yeet that Nero!scum doesn't quite understand yet. 452945314532

Nero says he'd like to vote Galron over Malcom, even though Nero has supported Malom wagon a bit in the past. 4550 Weirdly in this post, he says he wants to see where Frogster, DV, Titus, and dragons put their votes. DV has already said he's not leaving me. Titus also voted me. That leaves Nero signaling Frogster and Dragons.

Nero votes galron in 4588, even though he doesn't really give much reason and in his next post, 4599, he says "there's still enough votes to vote Malcolm out."

We get a bunch of April arguing against the Galron lim, and Math pushing his very bad theory, and then this is where the day truly gets interesting because Frogster returns.

In post 4623 Frog says he thinks "Galron is most likely to flip scum" out of the counterwagons to me. He hedges a bit saying Galron is a frequent miselim target, but clearly frog is expressing support for Math's point of view here. Again, I don't think scum have picked up on Yeet's softs yet, but the softs are becoming increasingly urgent at this point.

Dragons then appears in 4626 with a mostly naked vote, stating "this is better than Malcom". Yeet rightfully calls this out as scummy.

Fire starts to consider the softs in 4638 and unvotes.

THIS IS WHERE IT STARTS TO SLIP AWAY AS AN EASY DAY FOR SCUM

Frogster quotes Dragons' vote on Galron and says it is better than a malcom lim. 4640 Then he pumps up Math's dumb take again that VP and Yeet are the scum team trying to save Galron.

Nero says in 4642 that even if Gal is town, it's no big deal if they are limmed.

Frogster in 4645 again pumps up math and says that "VP Galron Yeet (April)" is a good solve.

(This point is key in a bit)

Yeet says in 4651 that he is willing to put his slot on the line that Galron is town. I confirmed overnight in the hood that this is the post that tips Nero off that Yeet is softing.

Cape calls yeet town, and dragons shades that in 4655. Frogster backs up dragons's shade in 4662. I believe this is scum trying to pull back the galron lim from the brink by looking for a final couple votes they can sway to power galron from E-2 to a lim.

This is their fatal error.

Nero is the first person to publicly out Yeet's soft in 4665. I pressed him on this overnight and he did not have any explanation on the protown motivation for doing this. He said basically it was obvious scum probably knew...which isn't an answer to make it a point of public discussion. This is most likely a rolefishing attempt.

Math says he doesn't believe Yeet has an actual innocent in 4668, which probably gives scum some hope that they can still get this done with Math for cover.

Nero comes in again at 4670 to call Gal scummy even though he knows about the Yeet soft. Frogster also reinforces this with 4672, but then frogster votes me in 4674.

Dragons tries to discredit Cape's townread of Yeet again in 4687. Math, being big brain, also joins in this discredit of yeet in 4689. Cape maybe shows some signs of uncertainty in 4691, and I think this is another fundamental point where the scum misread the table, thinking they still have a shot at galron.

Frogster now votes galron to E-1 in 4699. Two things worth pointing out in this post: Frogster says he is voting Galron because my wagon is not going to happen. And, he once again reinforces' Math's worldview that I must be scum with Galron.

It's also worth noting here that if my read is correct on Nero/Frog/Dragons, Frogster's vote onto Galron would put the three of them back-to-back-to-back on that wagon. A town flip of Galron is a potential death sentence to three out of four scum members who kind of have shitty votes onto the wagon.

Frog joins in on the effort to sway Cape away from a townread on Yeet in 4708. They need a hammer here bad. This is where we get into phase 3

----

Phase 3: Damage control

It's my firm belief that these three realized they got in too deep here. I was actively bringing fire around to understanding Yeet is probably town here who has good reason to believe Galron is town. Fire has been a main person aligned with Nero/frog/tenebros against me. This is extremely bad for scum if I'm starting to have better dialogue with fire.

At the same time, Cape is not turning on Yeet. The number of people left to actually hammer Galron at this point is like...Titus. And she is not super keyed into the game yet/thinks Math is pretty far off base.

Dragons unvotes Galron in 4711 "just for a sec."

Titus then comes in 4714 and votes Malcom, which is essentially a death sentence for the Galron wagon.

Frogster next unvotes Galron in 4728. Keep in mind, frogster said he voted Galron in the first place because my wagon was no longer viable and because he didn't want to lim Malcom. Well, why unvote then? Nothing has fundamentally changed about my wagon at this point. It is not anymore viable than it was when he voted. There is only something like 20 minutes that pass between these votes.

The only thing that has changed is that the galron!town miselim ship has sailed because of Titus' vote.

Nero comes in right after in 4729 to say "yeet doesn't have an inno on gal." Another stupid miscalculation, probably meant to sway cape or Titus, but it's a misread of the game state. Scum are flailing here and unsure what to do.

Frogster calls galron "limbait" in post 4740...but who is using him as limbait? He boosted Math's idea just earlier that galron and VP were scum together, with Yeet and April as possible accomplices. This is

MINUTES AGO.

It makes no sense, unless you look at this as a failed push on galron that has gone very wrong.

Frogster in 4758 is making a case that my posts indicate Galron town...which does not make any sense. Read the posts he links. Also, I was calling Galron probably town based on Yeet. What is frogster even trying to say here? I don't know what kind of moon logic frogster is using, other than to try to make it look like there is an actual case against me now that the Galron push has shit the bed.

Then we get the usual crowd of Tene and Nero chiming in that I'm obviously the best lim for the day. 47604771

Dragons naked votes me in this cluster fuck as well. 4766

Frog votes me again in 4770 even though he was already voting me. Was this to make it seem like more votes were coming my way than actually were? I cannot truly believe he wouldn't remember voting me just a few posts prior. This is theater.

----------------

TL;DR

- Nero/dragons/Frogster all tried to use Math as cover to power through a Galron wagon yesterday, but misread the game state by missing Yeet's soft and by thinking they could still power the miselim through even after the soft was outted. I questioned Nero about his play around the soft overnight and he did not have logical explanations for his play and was continuing to state it is clearly because the scum team is VP-Yeet-Galron-????

Frogster should be the lim priority because even if you want to say I'm reaching by claiming these three are scum buddies, there are a lot of inconsistencies in Frogster's positions around Galron that don't make any sense with what he is saying his positions are over a very short period of time.

VOTE: Frogster

So VP wrote all this at night right?

How does Nero respond to this?

"VP, there is no way that you are town" (paraphrased)

Without any further elaboration on Nero's end.

This sets off alarm bells to me, and I likely think this is due to time, but I ask Nero why, have not received a response on that.

From Nero's end, i found this extremely wolfy

[Nero Cain]

Look at him today, he is trying to shade people on the Malcom wagon

is this any different than you arguing that the scum team is/was pushing you?

Also, your argument that I was pushing Malcolm is bullshit. I wasn't voting Gal even though I was calling him scum is b/c I was on your wagon which was bigger. A town 2008 should understand this.

Another stupid miscalculation, probably meant to sway cape or Titus, but it's a misread of the game state

if I'm scum then it's not a "misread" You seem to have a lot of understanding about this game.