Open 848: Chromavalon: A Bouquet of Colors [Game Over]

[butterflies]

Good morning.

I don't see why that post from furtive is suspicious.

Agree with this, I found it more awkward-person awkward than scum awkward

A lot of mech talk from implo, none of it bad per se but personally I plan to just play Mafia and plan to win that way instead of over worrying about who is a muse. Why can't the muses just push good cases on scum without having to say who they are?

Furt, would like you to clarify what you mean by suggesting muses claim outright, because obviously they shouldn't all do that unless I am misunderstanding something.

I think both this post, plus Umlaut’s pushback on me gives me town pings, because the perspective of not wanting muses to reveal is protown, so I’m happy with where my vote is currently.

~Nancyfly

[Dunnstral]

At the beginning of the game,

the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which

. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.

~Nancyfly

I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.

Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.

[furtiveglance]

Ok, I'm finally back home and ready to blow this game wide open. This post will serve as reads on everyone (10 other players!), and the next post will cover strategy/a previous game I read/confusion.

butterflies

: I townread butterflies. They seem to be actively trying to find mafia, and they explain their thought process behind each vote/suspicion well, which you don't always get here, not pointing fingers at anyone in particular. It's +town that they focus on scumreads rather than townreads. I think I will use this opportunity to answer their questions posed in 70 - thanks for the bone Flea! 1) Read down to find out my suspicions 2) Again, this post has the answers. 3) I haven't played with a hydra before. I now understand that ButterDrew is the same as NancyFly - please keep the names consistent. I haven't really discerned between the two of you - you haven't disagreed on anything yet. That is to say you are just as easy to read as each other because you have been one entity so far. The kind of things I use to scumhunt aren't really be determined by personality - I try not to look at tone or playstyle but rather game analysis/voting.

Galron

: Again, only a few posts, but they are actively voting and seem to be scumhunting which earns them a tentative townlean.

Gamma Emerald

: Again a low frequency poster, but I like the frankness and direct analytical thought. Townlean

Dunnstral

: 1 post so no read. Their post was strategy talk rather than analysis - not alignment indicative.

Enchant

: In the null range for me with so few posts. I'd like to see more analysis. My thinking with post count is that it doesn't determine alignment by any means, unless you are below a certain post threshold i.e. extremely low posting is scum indicative. But it's day 1 so we shall see.

ProgoWoshua

: Almost no analysis - the one exception is defending my first post as a joke. I'll have to say no read here.

implosion

: Guilty of giving information rather than analysis. Their one contribution reads-wise seems to be a townlean on me. Despite giving a lot of text and theory, I don't know who they think are scum and they seem to be looking busy rather than actually thinking about the playerlist. Null/scumlean.

Titus

: 89 is just bizarre. How did you not think my first post was a joke? Did you miss the pun? I was serious that I like the setup, yeah. I wasn't serious that I wasn't amused. I was amused by other people's entrances and made a joke about them. This apparent scumread on me is so baseless that it might be too risky for scum to do, as scum would probably be more careful and have more coherent reasoning. That said, I think Titus wanted an easy read and chose me, so they are a scumlean for now.

Umlaut

: I don't like the OMGUS on butterflies. Defending themself is one thing, but how does that correlate with an apparent scumread on butterflies? Although their tone is quite aggressive which is sometimes +town, I don't really like looking at tone so it's a scumlean for now.

Noraa

: Probably my top pick to be mafia. 49 is +scum for 1) giving a vague explanation for suspecting me and 2) the joke about the confirm thing seems to walk back/dismiss their own scumread of me. Beyond this one post, they have spent more time arguing about strategy than their reads (similar to implosion).

VOTE: Noraa

[furtiveglance]

Here is where I will outline my thoughts on strategy. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=83211 is the game I read in which mafia won outright. In post game one of the mafia guessed the Merlins and were wrong. In essence I am agreeing with implosion that our Muses must influence the game in order for town to win, and I don't want players to overestimate how easy it is for mafia to guess all three Muses and match them to each 'Painter's Block'. I agree that maximum 1 Muse claims, but if we had no Muses it would be 3 in 11 and Mafia would easily win. Our power is the Muses and we need them to influence things. I know this is a completely new game, but I want to learn from the previous game that was played. I wasn't advocating for lots of claiming, just for Muses to subtlely influence things.

[Noraa]

Ok, I'm finally back home and ready to blow this game wide open.

im sorry to inform you that it's day one and no one is blowing the game wide open.

[implosion]

I like butterflies' 80 and agree with that post from Umlaut being pretty good. For butterflies I think that way of describing that her mind changed on Umlaut is genuine more often than not. For Umlaut I think that description of wanting to play the game that way is mildly town. I also like the way he's addressing the hydra, I think that sort of play toward an active hydra at this point in the game is somewhat on the conspicuous side for scum to be doing.

Galron's 61-62 strikes me as townish; I think that 62 is a sort of rhetorical flourish that scum would have to go out of their way to make, it's the kind of thing that indicates that someone is genuinely trying to process information and get reads.

I think furtive's reads post is pretty good. Or at least I agree with a good amount of it (and I don't mind being listed as a scumlean there). I am a little bit skeptical of feeling the need to "blow this game wide open" with a reads list on page 5, though. I guess it depends on how much they persist with that level of effort or if it falls off from there.

UNVOTE: Gamma

[implosion]

I have mixed feelings on Gamma, particularly his last post, but I guess if he's town his post staying on furtive makes sense.

VOTE: ProgoWoshua

[Noraa]

i think dunn is scum. hard to say at this point since there's only one post.
if its true though, my dearest merlin friend, i'll do your job for you. fret not and be a nice little vt

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Noraa

Here's a second one to help

[Noraa]

keep going if you truly arent scared

[Noraa]

push me case me
do it

[Noraa]

but you won't because you are scum aren't you?

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y

[butterflies]

VOTE: Noraa

Here's a second one to help

Why is Noraa scum Dunn? Please enlighten me.

~Nancyfly

[butterflies]

but you won't because you are scum aren't you?

Idk if he is or not but that vote on you was scummy as all fuck.

~Nancyfly

[butterflies]

@mod, can we please get a VC. It’s really hard to play without updated votecoubts.:/

[numberQ]

@mod, can we please get a VC. It’s really hard to play without updated votecoubts.:/

Good timing, I was in the middle of making one anyway.

Spoiler: Flowers

Alex Katz,

Red Roses with Blue

(2001)

Vote Count (1.3)

butterflies

[1]

Umlaut
Dunnstral

[0]

Enchant

[0]

furtiveglance

[1]

butterflies
Galron

[0]

Gamma Emerald

[0]

implosion

[0]

Noraa

[2]

furtiveglance, Dunnstral
ProgoWoshua

[2]

implosion, Gamma Emerald
Titus

[1]

Enchant
Umlaut

[2]

Noraa, Galron

Not Voting:

ProgoWoshua, Titus

Deadline:

April 8th, 2022, 12:00 PM EST ((expired on 2022-04-08 12:00:00))

[butterflies]

At the beginning of the game,

the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which

. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.

~Nancyfly

I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.

Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.

For someone I know who excels at mech, this is an extremely questionable take.

You’re essentially arguing that all 3 muses should go to their graves with unouted guilties - if they’re being run up. It is true that at least one muse can never out this due to secondary scum wincon but if hypothetically one of the muse’s target’s was a consensus townread and as such had virtually no chance of ever getting miselimed.

That actually happened in my last game. The only player who could have checked that player got NK’d and both due to role and excellent scum theatre, everyone had this player as a lock clear, so we lost due to that. Also your perspective in referencing specifically a muse getting run up and sitting on their guilty just doesn’t sit right with me.

And now you vote Noraa for what reasons even?

See Umlaut’s vote on me was wrong but not in anyway scummy + their take on the gamestate read protown.

Noraa pushing people as scumreads is nai. Ze does that every game but zer post read like it came from a townie mindset to me.

~Nancyfly

[butterflies]

i think dunn is scum. hard to say at this point since there's only one post.
if its true though, my dearest merlin friend, i'll do your job for you. fret not and be a nice little vt

VOTE: Noraa

Here's a second one to help

Am I the only one not understanding this thought progression?

~Nancyfly

[butterflies]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y

I now have 3 slots majorly pinging me, which rarely happens for me on D1. All involve questionable posts about muses.

Noraa sussed furtive who’s now voting zir but at least his vote didn’t look scummy but then Dunn jumps on zir too and you have progo wk furtive. Can this all be some crazy coincidence?

My hesitation wrt to progo is that his muse posts weren’t necessarily bad but his defence of furtive is like you said, “weirdchamp$.

I’m really trying to decide if I should stay on furtive, sheep on progo or Dunn who had not one but two posts I absolutely hated.

~Nancyfly

[Gamma Emerald]

At the beginning of the game,

the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which

. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.

~Nancyfly

I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.

Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.

For someone I know who excels at mech, this is an extremely questionable take.

You’re essentially arguing that all 3 muses should go to their graves with unouted guilties - if they’re being run up. It is true that at least one muse can never out this due to secondary scum wincon but if hypothetically one of the muse’s target’s was a consensus townread and as such had virtually no chance of ever getting miselimed.

That actually happened in my last game. The only player who could have checked that player got NK’d and both due to role and excellent scum theatre, everyone had this player as a lock clear, so we lost due to that. Also your perspective in referencing specifically a muse getting run up and sitting on their guilty just doesn’t sit right with me.

And now you vote Noraa for what reasons even?

See Umlaut’s vote on me was wrong but not in anyway scummy + their take on the gamestate read protown.

Noraa pushing people as scumreads is nai. Ze does that every game but zer post read like it came from a townie mindset to me.

~Nancyfly

only one muse should ever out
chance scum gets it right if 1 muse outs is 1/12
chance they get it right if 2 out is 1/3
and it's probably even easier for them to figure out that 1/3 than a 1/12 where they have to get two right out of 4 names

[butterflies]

At the beginning of the game,

the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which

. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.

~Nancyfly

I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.

Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.

For someone I know who excels at mech, this is an extremely questionable take.

You’re essentially arguing that all 3 muses should go to their graves with unouted guilties - if they’re being run up. It is true that at least one muse can never out this due to secondary scum wincon but if hypothetically one of the muse’s target’s was a consensus townread and as such had virtually no chance of ever getting miselimed.

That actually happened in my last game. The only player who could have checked that player got NK’d and both due to role and excellent scum theatre, everyone had this player as a lock clear, so we lost due to that. Also your perspective in referencing specifically a muse getting run up and sitting on their guilty just doesn’t sit right with me.

And now you vote Noraa for what reasons even?

See Umlaut’s vote on me was wrong but not in anyway scummy + their take on the gamestate read protown.

Noraa pushing people as scumreads is nai. Ze does that every game but zer post read like it came from a townie mindset to me.

~Nancyfly

only one muse should ever out
chance scum gets it right if 1 muse outs is 1/12
chance they get it right if 2 out is 1/3
and it's probably even easier for them to figure out that 1/3 than a 1/12 where they have to get two right out of 4 names

At the beginning of the game, the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

It’s actually a lot higher than 1/12. Scum already know that 3/5 players on their no n1 kill list are all the muses + 2 vts, so they know that whomever is not on that list is vt.

[butterflies]

I’m saying regardless if one muse outs or not, scum has a 60% chance of getting it right. I don’t see why a muse necessarily has to do that but Dunn said basically that they should take their guilty to the grave, which makes it extremely easy for scum to push anyone on that list of 5, if they assume that the muse will allow themselves to get run up anf take their guilty to their grave.

His post bothers me because it makes it much easier to push muses/muse guesses and the specific focus on muses getting run up, is the part that I find so concerning. It’s the perspective that makes me wonder.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE: butterflies

The initial suspicion was real but I think their reaction to my reaction to them is pretty good actually.

Not really sure who to vote instead. I like Furt (moreso how they're playing than the direction of their reads), I kind of like implo but am afraid that might be for more playstyle- than alignment-indicative things, I'm leaning town on Noraa because something about zir tone strikes me townish and also I think zir attitude of keeping muses as secret as possible is more helpful to town than scum, and I could take or leave pretty much everyone else. So I guess

VOTE: Woshua
because wagon.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are.

This probability is way wrong, btw: correctly guessing a subset of 3 from 5 is a 10% chance, not 60%, because there are 10 possible subsets of 3 to choose from.

[Umlaut]

I'm leaning town on Noraa because something about zir tone strikes me townish and also I think zir attitude of keeping muses as secret as possible is more helpful to town than scum

Want to clarify this more because whether muses refusing to ever out is

itself

necessarily best for town is up for debate and I think there are pros and cons, but I think the natural inclination for scum is to try and fish for information, not to insist information be kept secret.