Open 848: Chromavalon: A Bouquet of Colors [Game Over]

[Gamma Emerald]

I’m saying regardless if one muse outs or not, scum has a 60% chance of getting it right. I don’t see why a muse necessarily has to do that but Dunn said basically that they should take their guilty to the grave, which makes it extremely easy for scum to push anyone on that list of 5, if they assume that the muse will allow themselves to get run up anf take their guilty to their grave.

His post bothers me because it makes it much easier to push muses/muse guesses and the specific focus on muses getting run up, is the part that I find so concerning. It’s the perspective that makes me wonder.

your statistics seem off
scum has to guess colors, not just who is a muse

[Gamma Emerald]

If the Mafia are all eliminated, they have one more shot at winning by correctly identifying all 3 Merlins,

including their colors

.

[ProgoWoshua]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y

Two people made a big deal of an obvious joke. This didn't sit well with me.

[butterflies]

I'm leaning town on Noraa because something about zir tone strikes me townish and also I think zir attitude of keeping muses as secret as possible is more helpful to town than scum

Want to clarify this more because whether muses refusing to ever out is

itself

necessarily best for town is up for debate and I think there are pros and cons, but I think the natural inclination for scum is to try and fish for information, not to insist information be kept secret.

I’m saying regardless if one muse outs or not, scum has a 60% chance of getting it right. I don’t see why a muse necessarily has to do that but Dunn said basically that they should take their guilty to the grave, which makes it extremely easy for scum to push anyone on that list of 5, if they assume that the muse will allow themselves to get run up anf take their guilty to their grave.

His post bothers me because it makes it much easier to push muses/muse guesses and the specific focus on muses getting run up, is the part that I find so concerning. It’s the perspective that makes me wonder.

your statistics seem off
scum has to guess colors, not just who is a muse

Dunn wanted muses kept secret but in the context of them getting run up, so I just don’t understand why he would mention that specifically, because running up a possible muse, is obviously the best move for scum, so long as they die with their guilty.

[butterflies]

Oh and math has never been my strong suit.

[butterflies]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y

Two people made a big deal of an obvious joke. This didn't sit well with me.

@titus, @gamma

furtive's intro was just a joke, right? What's so suspicious about it?

His entrance didn't feel like a joke and he didn't claim it was.

Uhh...

This is my first non-Newbie game, I think this setup is magic. To everyone claiming Merlin, I am not aMused.

Titus, jokingly, claimed Merlin. This game reflavors Merlins as Muses. The post ends with a pun on "Muse".

How is this not a joke?

Hi everyone, I'll read through, give my thoughts on players, and vote tonight when I get home. As for the strategy talk, I read a previous game of this setup and town actually lost the main game, and the mafia wouldn't have guessed the Merlins correctly. Therefore we might have slightly more wiggle room in terms of Muses influencing the game or even claiming outright than you might expect. The main thing is to ensure we at least win the main game.

This post also flagged to me so I'm supporting the vote.

We have 2 miselimimations, there's no wiggle room there.

Each game is different with different factors - the players being a big variable shift. Me, I can't guess guess crap. I'd have no chance so I would be pushing the primary goal, not the secondary.

[...]

- £!3 ButterFlea

I think you might have misunderstood furtive here. The "wiggle room" they've mentioned is about the Muses potentially giving clues about their identities in order to increase the Town's chance to catch scum. So defending against the primary goal in expense of the secondary, not the other way around.

Why are you assuming 95 is what people are concerned with and not 82?

[ProgoWoshua]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y

Two people made a big deal of an obvious joke. This didn't sit well with me.

@titus, @gamma

furtive's intro was just a joke, right? What's so suspicious about it?

His entrance didn't feel like a joke and he didn't claim it was.

Uhh...

This is my first non-Newbie game, I think this setup is magic. To everyone claiming Merlin, I am not aMused.

Titus, jokingly, claimed Merlin. This game reflavors Merlins as Muses. The post ends with a pun on "Muse".

How is this not a joke?

Hi everyone, I'll read through, give my thoughts on players, and vote tonight when I get home. As for the strategy talk, I read a previous game of this setup and town actually lost the main game, and the mafia wouldn't have guessed the Merlins correctly. Therefore we might have slightly more wiggle room in terms of Muses influencing the game or even claiming outright than you might expect. The main thing is to ensure we at least win the main game.

This post also flagged to me so I'm supporting the vote.

We have 2 miselimimations, there's no wiggle room there.

Each game is different with different factors - the players being a big variable shift. Me, I can't guess guess crap. I'd have no chance so I would be pushing the primary goal, not the secondary.

[...]

- £!3 ButterFlea

I think you might have misunderstood furtive here. The "wiggle room" they've mentioned is about the Muses potentially giving clues about their identities in order to increase the Town's chance to catch scum. So defending against the primary goal in expense of the secondary, not the other way around.

Why are you assuming 95 is what people are concerned with and not 82?

Isn't it? I assumed that's what Gamma was talking about.

@titus, @gamma

furtive's intro was just a joke, right? What's so suspicious about it?

The integration of game terminology felt ham-fisted

Progo’s defense of furtive is pretty weirdChamp

[Dunnstral]

At the beginning of the game,

the Mafia Goons are given a list of 5 town, including the 3 Merlins and 2 random Vanilla Townies. They will not know which is which

. The Mafia cannot nightkill any of these 5 players on the first night.

This is why muses revealing is so bad, scum already knows that in that group of 5, 3 are Merlins, so they start the game with a 60% chance of correctly guessing who the muses are. So they might not know who the Merlins are but they 100% know who they’re not. So scum start the game knowing that 3/8 players are vts.

~Nancyfly

I believe that this part of the setup makes it disadvantageous for us to get a claim and then back out of the elimination.

Even if we are running up a muse, it may be disadvantageous for them to claim before death, because their pairing is not otherwise revealed, and can still be guessed incorrectly by mafia.

For someone I know who excels at mech, this is an extremely questionable take.

You’re essentially arguing that all 3 muses should go to their graves with unouted guilties - if they’re being run up. It is true that at least one muse can never out this due to secondary scum wincon but if hypothetically one of the muse’s target’s was a consensus townread and as such had virtually no chance of ever getting miselimed.

That actually happened in my last game. The only player who could have checked that player got NK’d and both due to role and excellent scum theatre, everyone had this player as a lock clear, so we lost due to that. Also your perspective in referencing specifically a muse getting run up and sitting on their guilty just doesn’t sit right with me.

And now you vote Noraa for what reasons even?

See Umlaut’s vote on me was wrong but not in anyway scummy + their take on the gamestate read protown.

Noraa pushing people as scumreads is nai. Ze does that every game but zer post read like it came from a townie mindset to me.

~Nancyfly

I'm leaning town on Noraa because something about zir tone strikes me townish and also I think zir attitude of keeping muses as secret as possible is more helpful to town than scum

Want to clarify this more because whether muses refusing to ever out is

itself

necessarily best for town is up for debate and I think there are pros and cons, but I think the natural inclination for scum is to try and fish for information, not to insist information be kept secret.

I’m saying regardless if one muse outs or not, scum has a 60% chance of getting it right. I don’t see why a muse necessarily has to do that but Dunn said basically that they should take their guilty to the grave, which makes it extremely easy for scum to push anyone on that list of 5, if they assume that the muse will allow themselves to get run up anf take their guilty to their grave.

His post bothers me because it makes it much easier to push muses/muse guesses and the specific focus on muses getting run up, is the part that I find so concerning. It’s the perspective that makes me wonder.

your statistics seem off
scum has to guess colors, not just who is a muse

Dunn wanted muses kept secret but in the context of them getting run up, so I just don’t understand why he would mention that specifically, because running up a possible muse, is obviously the best move for scum, so long as they die with their guilty.

I didn't say that

[Dunnstral]

Muses can use discretion

If it's somebody who won't get eliminated otherwise, sure, reveal, but keep in mind that there will probably only be 1 muse claiming a target this game. I do think it is disadvantageous for muses to always claim their target when being run up

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Noraa

Here's a second one to help

Why is Noraa scum Dunn? Please enlighten me.

~Nancyfly

I liked the read on noraa in post 102

I didn't like the response in post 104

I also didn't like the posturing in post 107

And then after my vote, I don't like the reaction in posts 108, 109, 110, which are also all made within 2 minutes of each other yet 8 hours after I posted

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: ProgoWoshua
I wanna go into that furtive defense a bit more. Regardless of furtive's alignment that feels very ulterior motive-y

And what is the ulterior motive?

[Gamma Emerald]

Don’t know, don’t care, I’m probably right about this

[butterflies]

Muses can use discretion

If it's somebody who won't get eliminated otherwise, sure, reveal, but keep in mind that there will probably only be 1 muse claiming a target this game. I do think it is disadvantageous for muses to always claim their target when being run up

Okay that’s a lot better then. So perhaps I misunderstood your intent then. Obviously at least one can never claim, that’s definite and probably only one should.

[Noraa]

I dont think dunn is town.

[Noraa]

Butterflea and Momma bear, huddle around huddle around
Imagine ... we're in our lovely little hydra
and all of a sudden noraa is spamming
DUNN IS SCUM DUNN IS SCUM DUNN IS SCUM

right now i would say i am at 80% certainty that dunn is scum. the reason it isn't 90% is because this playerlist doesn't look like one that would let 100% of town dunn shine through on day 1.

[Noraa]

8 hours after I posted

apparently ... noraas like sleep. it's kind of crazy

[butterflies]

VOTE: Noraa

Here's a second one to help

Why is Noraa scum Dunn? Please enlighten me.

~Nancyfly

I liked the read on noraa in post 102

I didn't like the response in post 104

I also didn't like the posturing in post 107

And then after my vote, I don't like the reaction in posts 108, 109, 110, which are also all made within 2 minutes of each other yet 8 hours after I posted

None of those posts are scum indicative for Noraa and I’d probably react badly to your vote too if I was zir. Was 104 where ze expressed zir initial possible scumreaad on you because I didn’t see it as scummy. The way ze expressed it read that townie to me and until you just recently clarified, I too thought you might be scum for that opening post.

[Noraa]

for the record, if i ever reach 100% certainty on dunn being scum here, dunn's gonna flip scum.

[Noraa]

ok actually i take it back, im definitely at 90% certainty that dunn is scum. 80% isnt enough.

[Noraa]

VOTE: Dunn
This is probably the right move. I guess this looks omgus-y but shrug it is what it is.

Like furtive SRs me for a RVS post, which i suppose is fair since I SRed them off a RVS post. It's just that SRing someone for their SR on your RVS post seems kind of ridiculous to me, but honestly, sure whatever i guess.
But dunn out here pretending that SR is actually good is kind of like mmmmmmmmmmm very sus. In general, dunn's vibes are also off this game so probscum off that alone.

I have a fairly good track record reading dunn. In fact I haven't read Dunn wrong in a while now, so much that i would say an incorrect read on dunn is basically the equivalent of a guilty on myself.

I'm still uncertain of this read because dunn hasnt posted anything that is like 100% scum or 100% town. But I've given this enough thought, and I think this is where my head is at right now.

/wordy wordy wordiness ahh

[Titus]

VOTE: Dunn

[Noraa]

MOMMA BEAR GOT MY BACK

[butterflies]

Butterflea and Momma bear, huddle around huddle around
Imagine ... we're in our lovely little hydra
and all of a sudden noraa is spamming
DUNN IS SCUM DUNN IS SCUM DUNN IS SCUM

right now i would say i am at 80% certainty that dunn is scum. the reason it isn't 90% is because this playerlist doesn't look like one that would let 100% of town dunn shine through on day 1.

Maybe? You have read him correctly in both versus and Happy Face, where most people adamantly disagreed with your read but what does concern me is that he should know that none of the reasons he’s given for that read are scum indicative and he’s not re-evaluating that read. despite both Umlaut and myself disagreeing with it.

I think that there is likely at least one scum in progo, Dunn and furtive, maybe more, so that’s where I’m at right now. Gun to head, my spidey senses make me think that the three of them might possibly be connected in some way and based on the takes both progo and furtive had wrt the muses - which was not protown, probably not merlins. I feel better about Dunn’s opening post but he’s just too confident in his scumread on you which I know aren’t good reasons to sr you. And I dislike that he’s not even questioning that read.

Dunn sheeps furtive and takes exception to progo push - and I recall he was a lot more careful to push srs in Happy Face and his reasoning in that game while wrong did make sense.

You could be right because he seems to be playing here more like in Royalty here. He treated town!Pooky and town!Hopkirk differently in that, than he treated town!Titus in Happy Face.

~Nancyfly

[Noraa]

You have read him correctly in both versus and Happy Face, where most people adamantly disagreed with your read

I also read him correctly in my past two games. Flea was in one of them!

[butterflies]

Well, if Dunn is scum, he’d be the hardest one to catch and the most lethal scum.