Open 848: Chromavalon: A Bouquet of Colors [Game Over]

[implosion]

Implo, what is your actual read on Enchant rn? Do you think they're scum and this "likely to get miselimmed anyway" argument is just the icing on the cake, or what?

Yes, I think Enchant is scum. I don't see any reason for him to play this way as town and I'm going to be rather frustrated if he is. That line of reasoning was essentially why I'm not really interested in thinking about alternatives today (at least, unless he plays the game).

[Enchant]

This way is exactly what way?

[implosion]

as far as i can tell you have given exactly one post where you effectively gave an opinion on another player's alignment; it was the post where you hammered dunnstral.

[Enchant]

Less is More.

[butterflies]

Nornor we've BOTH been on the recieving ends of Nancy tunnels and survived.

And it's a lucid Nancy with my approval behind her or a vaguely lucid flea making wild accusations and logic I can only follow at the time I throw it.

I mean I'm game to wake up the old Flea meta and ISORip our suspects :p

+1

I didn’t pull the PoE of furtive, Umlaut, Enchant out of my ass. I have analyzed the playerlist and this game from multiple angles, including interactions and readslists and it all points to that being > rand chance the most probable scumteam.

That said, they way furtive has and continues to react to my push is extremely higher > rand chance of them being scum in this game. I can be just as insightful as Pooky. I caught ducking in Pokemon, Kitty in Market, and pushed Bell in Happy Face. And I also correctly caught scum SS in several games. As for Flea, they correctly nailed scum!Alisae in Market and fae are 100% in synch with my solve.

~Nancyfly

Adding on to this, if I get a gut hit like this its often right.
I've hit Alisae to the point I got told to never play with eir again, I've hit Gamma with it, and I hit NANCY with it as MHTP.
When I've ignored it I've regretted it.

-Butterflea

Nornor I backed you up on Dunn, you know my gut is good

[Noraa]

[fireisredsir, butterflies] has scum
[implosion, umlaut] has scum

[butterflies]

[fireisredsir, butterflies] has scum
[implosion, umlaut] has scum

How are your reads seriously this off?

What scumgame ever have you ever seen me play like this?

Umlaut is in my PoE along with furtive and Enchant. I’m okay with limming any of those 3.

I’m not opposed to Implosion but I don’t think he makes a lot of sense as a furtive buddy or an Enchant buddy for that matter and I see associatives with both furtive and Enchant with Umlaut. I’m not interested in limming outside of

furtive, Umlaut, Enchant

today.

I would really also love to know why you have me pitted against fire who is one of my top towns?

~Nancyfly

[Noraa]

i dont remember calling you scum in that post

[butterflies]

i dont remember calling you scum in that post

[fireisredsir, butterflies] has scum
[implosion, umlaut] has scum

You’re saying that one of us/fire is scum, are you not? Which I totally don’t get.

Can you - and everyone else - ISO me, to understand why I am so confident that furtive, Umlaut, Enchant makes the most sense as the scumteam?

Cuz that would be super.

~Nancyfly

[fireisredsir]

Can you - and everyone else - ISO me, to understand why I am so confident that furtive, Umlaut, Enchant makes the most sense as the scumteam?

i understand why you believe in it. i think it does make some sense, and maybe you're just right. i kinda think it's unlikely that it's both umlaut and implosion, though, and right now im scumreading implosion more than i am umlaut

i think flipping anyone in galron/implosion/furtive/enchant/umlaut would give us a lot of info tho, and i think >90% chance that all 3 scum are in that group

[fireisredsir]

also i think noraa is wrong on the read of there being scum in [me, butterflies], and i think i was wrong on my earlier read of there being scum in [noraa, butterflies]. if noraa is scum here, ze could easily just follow the solves that are focused away from zir and accept the townreads from me/butterflies/furtive/most people i think. having some paranoia on me/butterflies doesn't really get zir anywhere if ze's scum, so prob just town

[butterflies]

Can you - and everyone else - ISO me, to understand why I am so confident that furtive, Umlaut, Enchant makes the most sense as the scumteam?

i understand why you believe in it. i think it does make some sense, and maybe you're just right. i kinda think it's unlikely that it's both umlaut and implosion, though, and right now im scumreading implosion more than i am umlaut

i think flipping anyone in galron/implosion/furtive/enchant/umlaut would give us a lot of info tho, and i think >90% chance that all 3 scum are in that group

The reason why I think it’s furtuve/umlaut/enchant, is that furtive was both scumreading and defending Umlaut in his posts and Umlaut never talks about furtive. My scumread on Umlaut increased since he’s seems to be trying to move away from limming Enchant to now prefering Implosion after tr him and this seems to be coinciding with my push on furtive. Umlaut was pretty much gung ho on limming Enchant but now that furtive is in a much weaker position, he suddenly seems to be flipping his reads on both Implosion and Enchant but never once addresses my case on furtive. He just seems to be completely ignoring it, which is really strange.

~Nancyfly

[implosion]

i think that describes a lot of the remaining universes imo. And I guess if you're scum it's fairly likely you're heavily bussing which seems kind of pointless. I still think it's possible but eh.

I think enchant/galron/furtive is my most likely bet at this point. But if one of them is wrong Umlaut is probably next most likely.

[implosion]

above being @ fireisredsir

[implosion]

The reason why I think it’s furtuve/umlaut/enchant, is that furtive was both scumreading and defending Umlaut in his posts and Umlaut never talks about furtive. My scumread on Umlaut increased since he’s seems to be trying to move away from limming Enchant to now prefering Implosion after tr him and this seems to be coinciding with my push on furtive. Umlaut was pretty much gung ho on limming Enchant but now that furtive is in a much weaker position, he suddenly seems to be flipping his reads on both Implosion and Enchant but never once addresses my case on furtive. He just seems to be completely ignoring it, which is really strange.

I mean yeah this seems reasonable. I just feel like you're writing Galron off too easily. I feel like he's done some townish and some scummish things, and I just think lurking is a natural thing scum could wind up doing in this gamestate, but if he's just flaked then, well, shrug.

[butterflies]

Current reads:

butterflies

: I reassessed both butterflies and Noraa after that Dunnstral flip, but I've landed town on both. It's not just the high post count, but both players are either playing incredibly transparently or faking a level of transparency that should be impossible to fake.

Noraa

: fireisredsir suggested in 380 that it's unlikely both butterflies and Noraa are town. I had doubts about Noraa yesterday, but ze seem more town than ever after being so wrong. I understand if that doesn't seem logical, but zir doubting in the twilight seemed genuine to me.

fireisredsir

: Progo was null/town but fire has quickly become a strong townread - 380 and 411 are full of analysis which is great. They agree with my scumread on Umlaut and I agree with their take on Enchant which I will explain below.

implosion

: I like the vote on Enchant but not much else beyond that. 288 is too vague, 'maybe Galron or Titus' feels unsubstantiated. They make a lot of posts which are easy for scum to make - 289 is LAMIST. That said I would rather not eliminate implosion as they could become more town for me after some flips.

Galron

: Coasty like me. Not enough for me to get a read on yet.

Titus

: Voted Dunnstral yesterday with no explanation. Voted implosion today with no explanation. No analysis all game but unlike Galron, I get scummy vibes from Titus. I don't like the day 1 focus on Muses/wifom and she sussed me for a joke in my first post. I think I can tell when other town suspect me, and this is not it. A red flip wouldn't surprise me at all, and I can now see an Enchant/Titus pair after she 1) failed to mention the lolhammer yesterday and 2)voted implosion who later voted Enchant.

Umlaut

: 'Policy voting' Enchant pinged me. I wouldn't policy vote someone I thought was town. I also still think omgussing butterflies day 1 was scummy, followed by voting Progo who's slot is now town in my eyes. Seems to be pairing with implosion. I can't see implosion/Umlaut as much as I can see Enchant/Titus, but scum might not openly pair anyway.

Enchant

: Hammered a town, then had some very awkward twilight chat. Not good. Other players have mentioned that 'lolhammering' is part of Enchant's meta, but like fireisredsir said in 411, her play seems scum-motivated to me. I'm slightly wary of voting for Enchant as implosion and Umlaut have started the vote quite early today, and they are null and scum respectively for me. However, individually Enchant is my biggest scumread.

I currently have two theories: Enchant/Titus is my favourite solve, but if Enchant is town I'm looking at Umlaut/implosion. If I had to vote right now I would vote for Enchant, but I want to use more of the day for discussion.

See, look at these posts. Furtive has both Umlaut and Enchant at the bottom of his readslist but [post]455[post], he is pushing Enchant and Titus > Umlaut. This makes me think furtive knows Enchant will flip scum and his positioning that as clearing for Umlaut but - for reasons unexplained - is positioning Titus as a possible Enchant buddy.

~Nancyfly

[butterflies]

The reason why I think it’s furtuve/umlaut/enchant, is that furtive was both scumreading and defending Umlaut in his posts and Umlaut never talks about furtive. My scumread on Umlaut increased since he’s seems to be trying to move away from limming Enchant to now prefering Implosion after tr him and this seems to be coinciding with my push on furtive. Umlaut was pretty much gung ho on limming Enchant but now that furtive is in a much weaker position, he suddenly seems to be flipping his reads on both Implosion and Enchant but never once addresses my case on furtive. He just seems to be completely ignoring it, which is really strange.

I mean yeah this seems reasonable. I just feel like you're writing Galron off too easily. I feel like he's done some townish and some scummish things, and I just think lurking is a natural thing scum could wind up doing in this gamestate, but if he's just flaked then, well, shrug.

It’s possible Galron could be scum, it’s also possible you could be as well but if furtive is scum, then his reads point to Umlaut and Enchant as being his buddies. Why would he have Umlaut at the bottom of his readslist along with Enchant but position Titus as a possible buddy for Enchant but not Umlaut? He has Umlaut much lower on his list than Titus.

If your main reason for sr Galron is lack of activity, then how is that more damning then the much more obvious associatives between furtive/Umlaut/Enchant?

And Umlaut never comments on furtive but now seems to be pivoting to you but Galron’s read on Progo’s last post, seemed odd to make as scum, since I now strongly tr that slot but he’s definitely fallen off since then but other than lack of activity, I don’t really understand why he’s scummy?

But the main reason is that the associatives between furtive/Umlaut/Enchant are through the freaking roof. 455. How can anyone ignore 455? It screams tmi on Enchant but why would he position Titus - who is higher up on his readslist but not Umlaut - who’s at the bottom?

And why isn’t Umlaut commenting on my furtive read at all? His only take is that I must be town but no opinion at all wrt to my reasons for sr furtive.

Also both are currently voting Enchant and Enchant getting on my case earlier for sr/voting Umlaut, really doesn’t make a lot of sense of they aren’t the same alignment, because that’s exactly what happened in Anything uPick. I sr and hardpused Enchant’s buddy SS and he jumped on me and hard defended SS. That’s why I thought those two were the same alignment. I think if one flips scum, so likely does the other. And this is apart from my other reasons for thinking the 3 of them are all connected.

So, that’s why I’m so confident that furtive/Umlaut/Enchant are all connected. If the associatives between those 3 were less obvious, then sure I’d been open to considering other possibilities like Galron, Titus, you but all the associatives point to those 3 and not Galron/Titus/you.

~Nancyfly

[implosion]

I just as a rule tend not to put any stock in pre-flip associatives, period. Maybe that's unwise in a setup where 3/9 living players are scum but :shrug:.

[butterflies]

I admit that I have been scummy. Because of that, I find it suspicious how furtive is still on my side after all this time. Definitely feels like they have some ulterior motive.

I'm willing to sheep in the Dunn/Furtive theory.

VOTE: Dunnstral

If this is wrong, you might flashwagon me instead of Noraa, because I doubt my reputation would recover after that.

butterflies, what do you think of this post?

Does a scumProgo outright say they've been scummy?

I think it was these two posts that made me lean slight town on him but if he’s flaked, then he needs to be either prodded or replaced.

@mod, please prod Galron, it’s been over 4 days now.

[butterflies]

I just as a rule tend not to put any stock in pre-flip associatives, period. Maybe that's unwise in a setup where 3/9 living players are scum but :shrug:.

Normally I’d agree with you but in this case, they’re pretty damned hard to ignore. and I have to look ahead because I think I probably don’t live to d3 or much longer than that, which is the main reason furtive’s read on me pinged me so hard. It just read so unnecessary and over the top. I just want to do as much as I can before I die. Surely you can understand this?

[implosion]

I mean yeah, I see the logic, I just think that kind of logic is the kind of thing where it can be easy to read into things that aren't actually there. I'm not trying to be critical, and if you die tonight I'll certainly be putting stock in what you're saying, I just don't personally look at games that way.

[numberQ]

@mod, please prod Galron, it’s been over 4 days now.

I indicated Galron was prodded in a recent vote count. Since he has not responded to my prod in over 24 hours at this point, I will begin looking for a replacement as soon as I get back to a computer.

[Umlaut]

The reason why I think it’s furtuve/umlaut/enchant, is that furtive was both scumreading and defending Umlaut in his posts and Umlaut never talks about furtive. My scumread on Umlaut increased since he’s seems to be trying to move away from limming Enchant to now prefering Implosion after tr him and this seems to be coinciding with my push on furtive. Umlaut was pretty much gung ho on limming Enchant but now that furtive is in a much weaker position, he suddenly seems to be flipping his reads on both Implosion and Enchant but never once addresses my case on furtive. He just seems to be completely ignoring it, which is really strange.

Tell me your case on furtive and I'll address it. My attention has been kind of elsewhere than Mafia lately.

I absolutely have not flipped my read on Enchant and I'll thank you to scumread me for things I am actually doing and not things you just made up.

[butterflies]

I mean yeah, I see the logic, I just think that kind of logic is the kind of thing where it can be easy to read into things that aren't actually there. I'm not trying to be critical, and if you die tonight I'll certainly be putting stock in what you're saying, I just don't personally look at games that way.

I mean sure that’s always possible but it’s rare that I am this confident in my solve and I really just think it fits - definitely better than any alternative theories.

Anyway, with any luck, day won’t end before Galron replacement replaces in, so hopefully that slot will become a lot more readable.

~Nancyfly

[butterflies]

The reason why I think it’s furtuve/umlaut/enchant, is that furtive was both scumreading and defending Umlaut in his posts and Umlaut never talks about furtive. My scumread on Umlaut increased since he’s seems to be trying to move away from limming Enchant to now prefering Implosion after tr him and this seems to be coinciding with my push on furtive. Umlaut was pretty much gung ho on limming Enchant but now that furtive is in a much weaker position, he suddenly seems to be flipping his reads on both Implosion and Enchant but never once addresses my case on furtive. He just seems to be completely ignoring it, which is really strange.

Tell me your case on furtive and I'll address it. My attention has been kind of elsewhere than Mafia lately.

I absolutely have not flipped my read on Enchant and I'll thank you to scumread me for things I am actually doing and not things you just made up.

Furtive has also accused me of that but that isn’t my main reason for sr you. It’s Enchant initially jumping on me for initially voting/sr you, which made me first think there was a connection between you two and based on Anything uPick and the way he jumped on me for pushing and sr/voting his buddy SS in that, it’s unlikely scum!him would do that if you weren’t buddies. So Enchant!scum makes it significantly > rand chance you’re his buddy based on that if he flips xcum. However, it’s a large part due to 455 as well.

Ironically it was fire replacing into the Progo slot that me realize how fake furtive’s posts read to me because both fire and furtive like to make long detailed posts but while I can really see the wheels turing in fire’s head and the townie thought process in his posting, I got the exact opposite sense from furtivre.

Then his unnecessary and way over the top townread on mre, screamed tmi to me plus his seemingly constant attempts to manipulate me into tr him, so furtive having you at the second to bottom of his readslist but then positioning Titus as making more sense as an Enchant buddy, was just straight up weird, if he’s scum here. And I also don’t understand your progression on Implosion, because it seemed you started to sr him, after a lot of people started to vibe with my furtive sr.

But if you want to address my furtive case, just look up my ISO and your response to two posts I made regarding srs on furtive either by me or in another case Progo, you made no comment on it.

In the Progo post, you ignored his suspicions on furtve to focus on him and Gamma and in response to my casing of furtive, you only gave a read on me.


That’s another thing that’s pinging me because fire, Implosion and Titus have all referenced my furtive read, you didn’t until I actually pointed out that you haven’t.

So, do you even have a read on furtive at all or did I somehow miss it?

~Nancyfly