Newbie 680: In this town of Cookieland... Over!

[guy0]

there's also the thing about his investigation choice, which is what i was referring to mainly. What i'm still working out is why he investigated barros instead of you (pops). Seeing as you would likely be the next candidate in his mind for the lynch (since he had not seen the heat he got for the hammer at this time) he would have investigated you if he was truly worried about the 3 town 2 mafia LYLO day 3. If he was truly afraid of this, he'd make the investigation that had the greatest probability of having a helpful result, being that, in his mind, at that point, you (pops) were next on the chopping block, he could either correct the mistake if he got an innocent result for you, or reinforce the idea of lynching you (pops) if he got a guilty result.

Do you see what I mean? His explanation of why he chose to role-claim and why he chose to investigate Barros (which, as he described it was almost a shot in the dark since he had a hunch that Barros was guilty AT THE TIME OF HIS INVESTIGATION) are essentially contradictory.

Did that make sense?

[Moratorium]

No.

My reasoning for investigating Barros was to maximize information.

Please indicate in my posts where I refer to this investigation as a "shot in the dark". Then refer to post 64 (Page 3 goddamn) where I am initially suspicious of Barros.

If all of my posts are just going to be "hey wow you're not paying attention, read post X", this game, which initially I was pretty pumped about because of the guilty verdict, has just turned into a big pointless slog.

Lynch Barros. If he flips town, lynch me. If he flips scum, I may die to NK anyway, but with a chance at a doc protection and another investigation result. It's not more complicated than that. Just do it already. Are you expecting me to bust out some fucking "I'm a Ninja Death Miller with 3 daykills and a Utility Belt" claim on Day 3? Jesus, half of you are overthinking this game. You're not that brilliant. The game doesn't always involve crazy 3-step plots and triple-crossing backstabs. Let it go. Lynch Barros.

I'm starting to agree with you pops, the claim may not have been the best play. But it wasn't because of the math. It's because I didn't foresee people's willingness to play dumb.

[jerseygoomba]

The other option is to lynch Moratorium and if he flips town, lynch Barros. Speaking of Barros, where the hell is he? Im pretty surprised that a guy with a bandwagon ready to hang him isn't trying to defend himself. I wouldn't be giving up when Moratorium has just as good a chance of getting dragged through the streets.

[guy0]

I decided to investigate Barros because I thought it was suspicious that as soon as I brought him up in post 64, he went super-quiet. My case against him was how he was contradicting himself in back to back posts, and I think it spooked him into not talking too much.

I'd like to add that although I'm currently voting for pops, if either pops or Eric get to L-1 at this point without a drastic change in arguments or debate, that I'll be happy to switch to either one and hammer. I'd have to see something pretty convincing from either one at this point to stop being suspicious of them.

My reasoning for investigating Barros was to maximize information.

At the end of day 1, you were CLEARLY most suspicious of pops and eric judging by, not only your willingness to hammer either, but your vote being on pops for the time until you hammered eric. If it is agreed that in your eyes, from the end of day one pops was likely to be receiving some heat for the lynch, an investigation on him would have maximized information as opposed to an investigation on barros since you would have information on pops that would, in your eyes, have been the MOST relevant information for day 2, whether or not we should lynch pops.

The bottom line is, there is no way you can say you didn't suspect pops by the end of day 1, and there is no way you can say that other people didn't agree with you. If you truly wanted to steer the town in the right direction with your investigation results, you would have investigated pops since AT THE TIME YOU THOUGHT he was the most suspicious, judging by your willingness to hammer and your vote being on him up until the time you hammered.

With you thinking that knowledge of pops' alignment would be of the utmost importance for day 2, it would have been the investigation that maximized information, and once pops' alignment was out of the way you could investigate the second most suspected (which would either be barros or someone else who showed suspicion on day 2).

In response to what you asked about the shot in the dark investigation, perhaps that was a little over exaggerated. What i meant was that you have small suspicions on him, and larger ones on pops.

to end it off.

Lynch Barros. If he flips town, lynch me. If he flips scum, I may die to NK anyway, but with a chance at a doc protection and another investigation result. It's not more complicated than that. Just do it already. Are you expecting me to bust out some fucking "I'm a Ninja Death Miller with 3 daykills and a Utility Belt" claim on Day 3? Jesus, half of you are overthinking this game. You're not that brilliant. The game doesn't always involve crazy 3-step plots and triple-crossing backstabs. Let it go. Lynch Barros.

Don't be in such a hurry to lynch, we have plenty of time so lets use it to our advantage. It can only help the town to have more time to discuss, and have more statements to analyze.

[guy0]

I saw jersey's post after i posted mine, and I totally agree with the comment on Barros. Where is he? I feel like we should lynch him just because of his inactivity, but lets give him more time, since, like i said, we have time to spend.

[Moratorium]

With you thinking that knowledge of pops' alignment would be of the utmost importance for day 2, it would have been the investigation that maximized information

you would have investigated pops since AT THE TIME YOU THOUGHT he was the most suspicious

Glad you're thinking for me. Here's what I was actually thinking.

1) I investigated Barros because I had a choice from my two FoS's in post 64: Barros or Pops. Pops was talking like crazy, Barros wasn't saying a thing. I figured if I investigated Barros, I might also be able to learn about Pops just from his constant talking. But if I investigated Pops, I probably wouldn't learn anything about Barros since he was so quiet. I went with the option that maximized information.

So what are you saying exactly, "Your investigation makes no sense because your reasoning wasn't the same as what my reasoning probably would have been in hindsight"? Plus, following you here, had I actually investigated pops, and got an innocent (which I now believe I would), I'd have no read on Barros at all, and nothing to reveal of interest on pops. And Pops continues to write novels, and Barros continues to say not very much, and town is nowhere.

I refute your hypothesis.

[popsofctown]

He makes a case for his choice it's clearly enough case to explain the motivation for his claim. Bear in mind he doesn't have to prove his claim was the best decision for town, he only has to prove his claim was a decision that seemed optimal to him.

guy0,
extend this to include Moratorium's investigation choice as well

[guy0]

i don't totally understand what you mean pops, but in response to moratorium.

First of all, there is absolutely no way you can use the argument "well look what happened, i didn't investigate pops and it turned out to be good" because thats a just a dumb argument because at the time you made the investigation you didn't know that, which is the main point of my argument.

I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense but you're still ignoring the fact that, by being the cop, you can CONFIRM anyone's alignment, so pops chatterboxyness, which could either be town or scum would have been confirmed.

Consider these scenarios. (what you should have been thinking when making an investigation choice)

Moratorium investigates pops and gets guilty result: this one is simple, since moratorium thought he would be next, he helps lynch pops.

Moratorium investigates pops and gets innocent result: This would have been a very informative investigation result, as it would have allowed you to steer the town towards not voting pops, and towards another, since you and pops were now clean, there would be 2 scum and 3 town to choose from, which, combined with reasoning would be easier.

Moratroium investigates Barros and gets innocent result: This result would provide ABSOLUTELY NO RELEVANT INFORMATION FOR DAY 2 (in your eyes during the night phase of day 1), it would just eliminate your suspicions on someone, which were not too strong by the end of day 1, and could have been made better by what he said during day 2.

So you "should" have thought (i use quotes because technically we are not 100% of your copiness), when you made your night choice, that an investigation on pops would be very beneficial with either investigation result as your would stop a mislynch, or reinforce a good one, with barros you only get a good amount of information from a guilty result, since an innocent result would simply allow you to scratch one person who hadn't been talking much off your list.

You (at the time) would have gained the most net information from investigating pops as opposed to barros. Therefore an investigation on pops would have maximized information.

This may seem a little confusing since it goes by what moratorium would have thought/known by the time of the day one night phase.

[guy0]

So what are you saying exactly, "Your investigation makes no sense because your reasoning wasn't the same as what my reasoning probably would have been in hindsight"? Plus, following you here, had I actually investigated pops, and got an innocent (which I now believe I would), I'd have no read on Barros at all, and nothing to reveal of interest on pops. And Pops continues to write novels, and Barros continues to say not very much, and town is nowhere.

I refute your hypothesis.

Also, the town would by no means be nowhere with an innocent pops result, it would have essentially prevented a mislynch, which, i'd say, is very helpful.
And on the other note you raised, i am not saying thing that I would have thought, i'm merely saying things that anyone in your shoes would have naturally thought at that time, with that information (given your behavior in previous posts).

[Moratorium]

First of all, there is absolutely no way you can use the argument "well look what happened, i didn't investigate pops and it turned out to be good" because thats a just a dumb argument because at the time you made the investigation you didn't know that, which is the main point of my argument.

Mis-representation of my argument.

I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense but you're still ignoring the fact that, by being the cop, you can CONFIRM anyone's alignment, so pops chatterboxyness, which could either be town or scum would have been confirmed.

And I chose to CONFIRM Barros.

Bunch of words about what I "should" have done.

I didn't do what you say I should have done, I did what I thought I should have done. You're not refuting my investigation choice, you're just trying to come up with what you think is a better one and trying to pin me to the fact that I didn't follow suit.

I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense

What?

I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense

I'm sorry, what was that? I missed that...

I guess your investigation choice makes a little sense

Yeah.

[guy0]

first, please represent your argument the way you intended because thats what it sounded like to me.

second, CONFIRMING barros is not what should have been done. What i mean is since you had thought the town thought pops was scum, you'd confirm their suspicions, the suspicions on barros were less at the time.

Third, What i'm trying to say is that you're contradicting yourself in saying that your role-claim choice was a well thought out way to guide the town, when your investigation choice did not do this as well as another could

Fourth, you're just being annoying, any investigation helps, but one on pops would have been more useful, knowing what you did at the time.

[jerseygoomba]

guy0, I agree with you 100%. Now is there any reason you wouldn't vote prior to the replacement? (which we probably should prod the mod for again).

[guy0]

like i've said many times, we have plenty of time to talk things over and figure them out, there is no need to rush, so let's wait till we have the replacement's input so that we can make a more educated decision.

[popsofctown]

Are we actually going to have a shortage of votes for lynching Barros? That would be sad.
I'm kind of startled at my own position at this point. I used to be the guy on the fence, shouldn't i easily be swayed back to doubt about Moratorium's claim? I think the reason guy0 isn't swaying me back at all has to do with vibes, gut feeling, instinct, or plain failure of reason, all of which keep my position from budging much at all.

guy0, you are totally missing what Moratorium is trying to point out to you. The burden of evidence isn't to prove: Moratorium, cop and certified genius, made the super optimal best investigation choice last night. He has to prove: Moratorium, cop and human being, picked an investigation choice with reasonably good logic behind it and went for it.

I don't know why Moratorium isn't mentioning this, maybe he feels like he shouldn't be the one to say it because he hammered or because he thinks it makes him look bad, but Moratorium expressed all those quotes about my guilt

before

my supposed scumbuddy flipped town. That doesn't take me down to zero suspicion, but i'm sure that took a big bite out of my suspicion level, it puts page 2 in a totally different light (which, as a cop, i'm sure he reread).


His logic is not that bad. You can certainly make a case for investigating me instead of Barros, but you can make totally legit case for investigating Barros instead.

Say Barros was 50% chance of guilty after D1, i was 60% chance of guilty after D1. But I'm expected to go down 20% or up 20% the next day from my incessant talking (if you talk enough without being scummy, your suspicion slowly goes down. It's hard to manage that if you are scum).

So say he investigates me, and I'm guilty. That puts me at 100% (no millers, lol). But I was going to rack myself up to 80% anyway just from my constant talking. So he only gets a 20% improved chance of correctly lynching. If i come up innocent, I drop down to 0%, but i was going to drop down to 40% anyway, so that is only a 40% chance improvement in information.

Barros is at 50%. He investigates Barros, he's innocent or guilty. Either way, he gets 50% improvement in information, because his guilt wasn't going to change otherwise. So Barros provides the best improvement in information.


You can nitpick that, say the numbers aren't reasonable (i think they are). It doesn't matter if you can show that I was actually the best decision. The point is, there is a clear, compelling reason to investigate Barros, and it is plausible (beyond plausible) that Moratorium went for that reason and did it.

[guy0]

First of all the numbers are completely unreasonable and have no backing behind them at all and i essentially ignored them; but you did bring up one very interesting point that I overlooked, which was the thought of moratorium thinking pops and eric were in league, and by finding eric's allignment, had a better sense of pops. I'm going to take another good look at moratorium's day 1 posts but i'm really glad you just posted that, it gives me another thing to think about. thanks pops, well thought out.

[popsofctown]

Jerseygoomba, I want to hear your some words of your own.

Open ended question: is Moratorium's investigation choice plausible, and if not, why?

[guy0]

I see you and ERIC as scummiest at the moment.

I think Barros did some scummy things (see post 64), but he's in third place on my scum list, and only the top 2 get medals in the Cookieland Olympics.

I'd like to add that although I'm currently voting for pops, if either pops or Eric get to L-1 at this point without a drastic change in arguments or debate, that I'll be happy to switch to either one and hammer. I'd have to see something pretty convincing from either one at this point to stop being suspicious of them.

It's just things like these (moratorium said in day 1) that make me wonder why moratorium investigated barros over pops

[jerseygoomba]

I wonder if we could prod the mod to try to get a replacement. I REALLY want to hear from the new guy. Also, could someone poke Barros? I'm afraid he is asleep at the switch again.

[popsofctown]

Jerseygoomba, could I prod you to answer the question I asked??

[jerseygoomba]

Pops, are you really still so undecided that anything I say will change your cupcake from Barros to Moratorium? Plausible, yes. It still doesn't change the fact that I think it was scummy not to investigate you. I 100% agree with the two examples guy0 posted earlier.

[popsofctown]

Pops, are you really still so undecided that anything I say will change your cupcake from Barros to Moratorium? Plausible, yes. It still doesn't change the fact that I think it was scummy not to investigate you. I 100% agree with the two examples guy0 posted earlier.

I really don't like your defeatist attitude here. We're a team aren't we? Or are we jerseygoomba? For realz, it's at least possible to sway me back into neutrality.


You say that the Barros investigation is plausible, but imply it's improbable. I don't see how you two are still stuck on this idea. He investigated Barros to get info from the mod on Barros and info from me from me, maximize information. I don't see why this doesn't make sense to you because IT FRIGGIN WORKED. He got a guilty verdict from the mod, and everything I've done all day has made people in general think i'm innocent.

I still want someone to explain what i did D1 that could put me oh so significantly scummier than Barros. He put suspicion on Eric for one reason, then flipped it around the other way and said that was suspicious too and voted. Then he shuts up for ever and ever, and comes back to jump on the bandwagon against Eric with little of his own thoughts or reasoning.

[guy0]

You say that the Barros investigation is plausible, but imply it's improbable. I don't see how you two are still stuck on this idea. He investigated Barros to get info from the mod on Barros and info from me from me, maximize information. I don't see why this doesn't make sense to you because IT FRIGGIN WORKED. He got a guilty verdict from the mod, and everything I've done all day has made people in general think i'm innocent.

There are two things I don't like about this post. 1. You are using the worst argument known to man, which is
"well who cares if it was a good idea or not, it worked didn't it?" Because if Moratorium is lying it doesn't matter how bad of an idea it was because he'd always say it would work!!!! Like i've said before, the investigation of you, in moratorium's eyes at the end of day 1 would yield for net information directly relevant to day 2.

There other thing I don't like is where you say "everything I've done all day has made people in general think i'm innocent," well in case you haven't realized, people who believe Moratorium think that Barros would have picked a townie as his "innocent result" and people who believe Barros, well, that's obvious. You were absolved of your guiltyness more based on "investigation results" than the way you presented yourself

[Barros]

I've been really busy, sorry.

Lynch Barros. If he flips town, lynch me. If he flips scum, I may die to NK anyway, but with a chance at a doc protection and another investigation result. It's not more complicated than that. Just do it already. Are you expecting me to bust out some fucking "I'm a Ninja Death Miller with 3 daykills and a Utility Belt" claim on Day 3? Jesus, half of you are overthinking this game. You're not that brilliant. The game doesn't always involve crazy 3-step plots and triple-crossing backstabs. Let it go. Lynch Barros.

as i have already said almost 100 times. You (moratorium) are in a big hurry to lynch someone.. First it was ERIC, now me. Don't you think that you're acting a little bit scummy? I don't know, just me wondering..

I haven't read everything yet, just an overlook. I see guy0 saying that moratorium's investigation target was too much random. I think the same way.. If he really wanted to kill a mafia (so town would be in an advantage situation) i think that the obvious target would be pops..

My reasoning for investigating Barros was to maximize information.

right.. you are always protecting town people, but when it comes to lynch someone you just want to maximize information.. good excuse

[Moratorium]

as i have already said almost 100 times. You (moratorium) are in a big hurry to lynch someone.. First it was ERIC, now me. Don't you think that you're acting a little bit scummy? I don't know, just me wondering..

PostPosted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject: 159
Day 2, you awake to a town without My Milked Eek.
My Milked Eek, townie, killed night 1
With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Day 2 started three weeks and a day ago. Thank you for your concern trolling, but I think there has been plenty of conversation to date, no one is injecting anything new, our mod has all but disappeared, several players are lurking, we're not getting replacements even though several dozen people have posted to the newbie queue in the last week, so I get to sit here and read all these garbageposts, plausibly being egged on by the other scum in this game, also plausibly being a bunch of townies trying to outwit each other. So thank you for letting us know what you are "just wondering", Barros the Mafia Goon, because surely it's not an attempt on your part to bring topics to the forefront that might get you off the hook.

I haven't read everything yet, just an overlook. I see guy0 saying that moratorium's investigation target was too much random. I think the same way.. If he really wanted to kill a mafia (so town would be in an advantage situation) i think that the obvious target would be pops..

How surprising that you agree with an opinion that someone else came up that takes people's eyes off of you. Can you come up with anything of your own?

right.. you are always protecting town people, but when it comes to lynch someone you just want to maximize information.. good excuse Wink

...what? What do you mean here, I don't understand the attack. I want to "protect town people", does that mean you don't? And why wouldn't I want to maximize information? Wouldn't you? I'm not following the logic of how this is an attack, it just seems like a string of words that don't go anywhere.

I am frustrated at the lack of moderation in this game.

[guy0]

Although I've been more on the side of moratorium throughout this game, and have simply pointed out all the possible viewpoints, that last post of his just makes him seem soooo impatient. I mean it was said that day 1 was not very well played and was incredibly short. I mean you can look at other games that have 20 pages by day 2 or, sometimes, even 1. Some interesting things have been brought up recently, and it's very anti-town (does not necessarily mean scummy, just not helping the town as much as it could) to not wait for the replacement. Jersey was kind enough to join the game at this point, so, hopefully we'll find another. I don't know what else should be done with that replacement.