KTaNE [game over!]

[Bell]

Talk.

[Enchant]

Nah

[GuiltyLion]

I felt all three of Pooky/Ceph/Titus were townie in the hood and I think if scum in any of them were trying to get rid of me they could have just openly scumread me and blown me up without much consequence

I think Baltar is scummier than Dwlee

[Bell]

I felt all three of Pooky/Ceph/Titus were townie in the hood and I think if scum in any of them were trying to get rid of me they could have just openly scumread me and blown me up without much consequence

I think Baltar is scummier than Dwlee

Okay

[Bell]

Nah

Not you, everyone else. I have no expectations for you.

[Enchant]

Nah

Not you, everyone else. I have no expectations for you.

AHAHAHAHAHAHA.

[Enchant]

Nice quickhammer you organised btw i rated.

[GuiltyLion]

Baltar and Andante, can you both talk about your reads on each other?

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: VP Baltar

ESSAY INCOMING

Please actually read! Thanks! At least the end summarizing everything, please?

First, posts that kinda got ignored but were actually smart in hindsight:

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

The VP!scum angle is: vp was the most townread in our hood going into night, so if he can rely on that then he gets off two mislims in exchange for his life which is worth when VP probably will be flipped at some point.

The strange!scum angle is: ??? hope that there's enough wifom about this sort of thing that they don't get limmed. But then they'd have brought that up right? Wouldn't they be arguing right now that they wouldn't explode it because they'd be the obvious elimination after, and therefore they wouldn't explode as scum?

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

I also want to note that VP was in fact the last person to submit info in the hood, which is mildly suspicious. I was pretty in the air, and I wonder if VP was hoping I would just choose to blow up Andres myself, but then I chose to solve the bomb, and then VP posted but didn't post his solve, and then Strange posted her solve, and then VP posted his.

Okay so turns out these were right. Note to self: stop thinking once you land on the right conclusion

Anyway, I want to include more of my progression and what I think about the game right now. When I went from "paranoia about VP" to "wait maybe it is actually VP" was when Menalque posted these

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

Strange > dwlee > baltar

Could be strange and dwlee I guess, but that’s my preference for limming them

CSF, GL, bell, ceph, VPB all town

Pooky, Andy, enchant prob town?

Misty still scum

Titus can be scum, and is likely to be scum if only 1 in strange and dwlee

VOTE: strange

This post combined with what Menalque said here:

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

vote count 3.03

• with
  16
  votes in play, it takes
  9
  to make a decision.
  
• day 3 ends in
  (expired on 2022-04-18 21:00:00)
  .
  
• 3
  players who have the most nominations will be bomb experts on n3.

execution:

Malakittens [6]:

Dwlee99, Cephrir, VP Baltar, Cat Scratch Fever, PookyTheMagicalBear, GuiltyLion

VP Baltar [4]:

Enchant, Menalque, Andante, Greeting

Dwlee99 [1]:

StrangeMatter

not voting [5]:

Mistyx, Andresvmb, Titus, Malakittens, Bell

bomb expert nominations:

VP Baltar [4]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, GuiltyLion, Enchant, Cephrir

Dwlee99 [2]:

GuiltyLion, Enchant

Titus [1]:

Enchant

Malakittens [1]:

Enchant

StrangeMatter [1]:

Enchant

not nominating [12]:

Andante, Mistyx, VP Baltar, Dwlee99, Greeting, Andresvmb, Cat Scratch Fever, Menalque, Titus, Malakittens, StrangeMatter, Bell

ineligible to be nominated:

Andante, Greeting, Andresvmb, Menalque, PookyTheMagicalBear, Cat Scratch Fever, Cephrir, Bell, Mistyx, GuiltyLion

mod notes:

• Menalque v/la weekends.
  
• the vote counter is acting weird and i'm counting votes by hand, let me know if i make any mistakes.

Was thinking this was weird if my reads are accurate but it could just be that scum weren’t around and figured piling onto the Baltar wagon would look really bad if mala went through anyway/went through today

Are what made me worried. Okay, it wasn't quite what Menalque said here, but rather the vote count he was quoting that showed him voting VPB combined with now thinking that VPB was completely town all of a sudden. He also came into today with this to say:

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

Why were dwlee and strange experted?

Compare that to

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

my very brief thoughts are that Baltar probably needs to die today, and if scum flip then pooky definitely needs to die

Look through Menalque's ISO from this "baltar needs to die" to complaining about me and strange being experted, but not baltar, there is no progression in between there. Which is why I immediately unvoted and:

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

UNVOTE:
Don't want day to end

Does anyone think it'd be weird for strange to choose to blow up the bomb when she knows she is extremely likely to be the one accused for and limmed for it?

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

Menalque: why were you voting VPB yesterday? Why are you townreading him now? Why do you scumread me and strange more than him?

Eventually got Menalque to say this:

Subject: KTaNE [twilight four]

Yeah, I saw dwlee, I just don’t really feel like engaging on it atm

It would be helpful for me if you answered that

In the barest of bones— it was less related to finding VPB actively scummy and more to do with paranoia around him being defuser twice

But I just think he reads as town, and that goes with how I felt about him in the PT, and I realised it was at least partly ego — I didn’t want to be the one who called VPB town only for him to single handedly win for scum by defusing 4 times

But fuck it, if he’s scum, he’s played really well and he’s fooled me

Anyway, this post is kinda out of focus because I'm trying to combine two things into one.

To summarize this into something hopefully more digestible:

1.) VP was weird in the hood in the way he went about choosing to solve, mainly that VP waited until both Strange and I had posted our solutions to post his, despite being confirmed to be around after I had posted my solve and before Strange had because he posted in the expert thread but didn't post his solution.

2.) VP was the one with the most reason to explode the bomb there. He was both best positioned in terms of being townread the most, and as someone with two defuses already under his belt he was almost certainly going to flipped at some point, meaning if he can take out two or three townies in exchange for his life before he gets flipped it would be extremely worth it, especially since one of them was the doctor.

3.) Menalque's progression on VP reeks of scum angling to get us (Strange/me) mislimmed. I mean, he literally came into the day complaining that we were made experts after the bomb had exploded, when really if town he should be considering VP the most suspicious given his previous thoughts that Baltar needs to die. It seems to me like he pushed Baltar for the bus cred on Day 3, but on Day 4 he now had to follow the new plan of getting as many townies killed before Baltar's flip.

This next point should probably get made into its own post but I don't feel like dealing with multiple drafts so here goes it:

4.) Baltar and Menalque pushed for Titus to be healed. Those with an especially keen memory will remember that Koba also wanted Titus to be an expert. There are further things that point to Titus being scum, especially with Menalque. Remember the weird flop that Menalque does with his VP Baltar read? Well turns out that he does a similar move regarding Titus. I'll now just go through the mentions of Titus Menalque makes to show why I think his progression is fake and why it points to Titus as third scum.

164: Menalque expresses a slight town lean on Titus
1678: He once again expresses a townread on Titus. He also expresses desire to vote for fire, MT (now mistyx), or Andres. This should be kept in mind now that two of these have flipped town. Possible if not Titus that third scum is still Mistyx based on rule of three, but also on further consideration I actually think Mistyx is playing with very little agenda and so might be town here. Back to going over progressions.
1681: Okay this one isn't about Titus but is further for burying Menalque: He expresses that he doesn't understand why VP is widely scumread. I'll try to find where this stance reverses into a scumread onto the slot but again weird progression here.
2566: Titus suddenly appears in the good odds of scum list with... nothing changing. I don't think Titus really changed amount of posting or how much content but was suddenly moved down to "good odds of scum." Misty is also listed as scum, again slight indication Mistyx isn't third scum. Baltar now becomes null.
2568: Menalque and Titus have this weird interaction where Menalque claims he thought Titus was softing masons with Frogs? This is just strange.

[post]2582: Update reads list from 2566. Now Baltar is town and pooky gets moved up to null town. Also note that Strange and I are listed as

null

. This is day two but I feel like if Menalque nullread Strange and I us being experts wouldn't be worthy of such a strong reaction on day 4 start (3465).
4059: Menalque is weird about not liking Titus' slot but being willing to just trust she is town. I don't feel like this accurately reflects how Menalque did in fact townread Titus at the beginning of the game.

To now summarize this section: Menalque acts kinda wonky around Titus. Townreading her, scumreading her randomly, being willing to just trust pooky on her slot, etc. I think this demonstrates Menalque is scum and with a good likelihood that Titus is the third scum.

ULTRA SUMMARY: VP is scum (duh) and Menalque is his partner. Titus has a decent chance of being the third. Please sheep ty

Edit upon GL selected as defuser: Because VP is scum, scum might actually be going for the 4 defusals win condition. If this is a successful defuse we probably have to eliminate GL at some point.

[Andante]

VOTE: VP

[Menalque]

Bum bada dum

I was right all along

VOTE: dwlee

[Menalque]

I think Baltar is scummier than Dwlee

Go on

Also, why do you think that scum picked you to defuse?

[Menalque]

they could have just openly scumread me and blown me up without much consequence

Actually, expand on this too please

I still think anyone unilaterally using the expert role to vig someone who isn’t a p consensus SR is kinda scumclaiming, so this doesn’t figure to me. I think you’re broadly p townread this game, so I’m not seeing how there would have been likely no consequence from them killing you

[Menalque]

Also I’m treating dwlee’s suggestion that I would make sense as scum with titus as a scumclaim unless someone wants to sell me otherwise lol

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

titus is extremely unlikely to be scum she towned it up p hard in that pt

[Dwlee99]

Also I’m treating dwlee’s suggestion that I would make sense as scum with titus as a scumclaim unless someone wants to sell me otherwise lol

The associatives are there

titus is extremely unlikely to be scum she towned it up p hard in that pt

Okay well I couldn't have known that when I wrote my post after strange's flip, BUT what I wrote convinced me more that menalque is scum than that Titus is scum w/ menalque.

[Menalque]

Well that seems like something I’m entirely happy to take on trust

[Menalque]

Did you spend the weekend at the bmx park dwlee?

[Dwlee99]

Bum bada dum

I was right all along

VOTE: dwlee

Also, this completely lines up w/ what I pointed out, namely that your read on VP completely turned town and your read on me/strange turned scum with no progression as soon as VP blew up Andres.

[Dwlee99]

Did you spend the weekend at the bmx park dwlee?

I have no idea what this means

[Cat Scratch Fever]

We have a 50-50 chance of limming scum between Baltar and dwlee. We should be able to get it right today, right?

laughs nervously

Anyway, I'm feeling VPB is more likely scum between the two

The reason I started thinking he was town in the first place was a combo of drinking the wine (by buying into the logic that scum!VP wouldn't make himself defuser N1) and also because I liked his push on Andres

And the latter flipped town, so I'm not sure how much stock I should place in that anymore

Also I kind of like dwlee's wallpost. Forget the paranoia stuff, why are you townreading vp in the first place, mena?

[Menalque]

Did you spend the weekend at the bmx park dwlee?

I have no idea what this means

Because that was some impressive back pedalling in 4340!

[Cat Scratch Fever]

they could have just openly scumread me and blown me up without much consequence

Actually, expand on this too please

I still think anyone unilaterally using the expert role to vig someone who isn’t a p consensus SR is kinda scumclaiming, so this doesn’t figure to me. I think you’re broadly p townread this game, so I’m not seeing how there would have been likely no consequence from them killing you

I don't think guilty lion is consensus townread this game

At least I wasn't

[Cat Scratch Fever]

What was the back pedal?

[Menalque]

why are you townreading vp in the first place, mena?

I need to run through this again, but I liked his posting in the N1/D2 posting

Pedit: maybe not consensus but has anyone been scumreading him? I think it certainly would have raised several eyebrows if anyone had vigged him