KTaNE [game over!]

[Dwlee99]

It's day 5 and you're still alive?

You really this dense as town?

You're arguing that my argument doesn't make sense cause you'd get limmed day three but it's day five what am I missing

Do you think what I'm saying or what you're saying is the more likely outcome? Which furthers scum win cons more?

No shit I'm alive. Unless I'm nostradomus, pretty sure that's not relevant to what I'm saying.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about here

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: dwlee

Cool. I think you're a smart person and not this ridiculous. You can die now.

[Dwlee99]

You literally proposed a scenario that didn't happen as an explanation for why you wouldn't have defused or something? I don't know how that makes sense at all

[VP Baltar]

I didn't say that was why I wouldn't have defused. I'm saying if I was scum, I would have killed and laughed at actually getting two defusals. What are you even talking about????

[VP Baltar]

And then you said how does that make sense.

And then I explained very clearly how that makes sense.

And now you're playing dumb or something

[VP Baltar]

Just straight trolling me

[Cephrir]

I didn't say that was why I wouldn't have defused. I'm saying if I was scum, I would have killed and laughed at actually getting two defusals. What are you even talking about????

this would be a pretty terrible move so i dont really believe that it would definitively have occurred

[Bell]

*insert Mandatory Pooky paranoia*
Straight up position reversal sucks. And even if I’m wrong and they’d suspected vp all along I still say the same.

[Dwlee99]

I'm pretty sure VP townreads me because he is literally factionally informed I'm town but okay

This is an insane thing to say. If you want me to scum case you, I can read lots of your posts with bad intent.

I'm trying to right this game state and willing to risk my lim to do it because I think if someone doesn't correct course, we are headed to a very bad game state.

You should take a step back and think about what I would actually gain from approaching the game this way as scum (nothing), and then help me lim mistyx.

So you ask what you'd gain as scum from not trying to lim me

Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?

I point out if you are successful in evading a 1v1 with me that you don't get limmed and that you don't confirm that scum have 2 defusals towards their 4 defusal win con.

Not getting limmed and not exposing scum as having at least 2 defuses seems like a pretty big win to me?

I already would have had two defusals before there was a risk, yeah? This makes no sense.

I don't follow what makes no sense about it

Scum start the game with 1 kill.

I defuse N1.
Scum have 2 kills, kill N1.
I defuse N2.
Scum have 2 kills. Kill N2.
Town ZOMG VP IS SCUM! Lim VP.
Scum kill N3, town worried rest of game about defusals, never let defusals happen.

As opposed to what are you proposing? Scum have like 3 NKs or something they are sitting on? For what reason? To keep me alive when I was always going to get limmed at some point for having two defusals?

And now I have no fucking clue how what you're saying is relevant. What does any of this have to do with you positioning to try to lim mistyx instead of me? Nothing. There's no connection. I have no idea what you're even attempting to say

[Dwlee99]

I didn't say that was why I wouldn't have defused. I'm saying if I was scum, I would have killed and laughed at actually getting two defusals. What are you even talking about????

To this part I guess... greeting is dead and it's possible bell was protected N2 or Pooky was protected N1. That would leave you with no night kills left so ?

[Dwlee99]

Er there would be one night kill left but you could be saving it and/or you're trying to keep the game in evens.

[Dwlee99]

vote count 3.00

• with
  16
  votes in play, it takes
  9
  to make a decision.
  
• day 3 ends in
  (expired on 2022-04-18 21:00:00)
  .
  
• 3
  players who have the most nominations will be bomb experts on n3.

execution:

not voting [16]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Andante, Mistyx, VP Baltar, GuiltyLion, Enchant, Dwlee99, Cephrir, Greeting, Andresvmb, Cat Scratch Fever, Menalque, Titus, Malakittens, StrangeMatter, Bell

bomb expert nominations:

not nominating [16]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Andante, Mistyx, VP Baltar, GuiltyLion, Enchant, Dwlee99, Cephrir, Greeting, Andresvmb, Cat Scratch Fever, Menalque, Titus, Malakittens, StrangeMatter, Bell

ineligible to be nominated:

Andante, Greeting, Andresvmb, Menalque, PookyTheMagicalBear, Cat Scratch Fever, Cephrir, Bell, Mistyx, GuiltyLion

mod notes:

• Menalque v/la weekends.
  
• the vote counter is acting weird and i'm counting votes by hand, let me know if i make any mistakes.

There's actually not really a reason to NOT save it unless you need to kill a PR. Kills are just EV way more valuable later in the game actually. If you kill sooner that's a townie that can't get mislimmed. If you kill later then you only thin out the pool when it reduces town EV ie gives them one less mislim.

[Dwlee99]

Ignore quote was checking even/odds

[Dwlee99]

9:3

Assume scum have 2 night kills. Then if a bomb explodes and they night kill and we mislim

6:3

3:3

Scum need two mislims, two bombs, and two night kills to win. So why not save it?

[Dwlee99]

If GL is scum then they probably night kill last night cause they know he is living. So GL!town unless we live in andres essentially threw the game world

[Dwlee99]

*insert Mandatory Pooky paranoia*
Straight up position reversal sucks. And even if I’m wrong and they’d suspected vp all along I still say the same.

I don't think Pooky is scum fwiw but also Pooky paranoia is fine

[Dwlee99]

I do think enchant is scum

Is VP/Enchant/Menalque viable

[VP Baltar]

It wouldn't matter when you kill. A number is a number. This is nonsense. Scum have to lim the same number of people to win start to finish. There's no way I make an endgame situation after two defusals, so your 3:3 is silly in a VP!scum world.

[Dwlee99]

If you lim mistyx and then me you could

But also, no, it isn't just a number, and you're ignoring how probability of random lims works when you kill sooner vs later

[Dwlee99]

Two kill example in a 8:1 9p cause I don't feel like doing multiple scum odds:

Chance of limming scum each day assuming haven't limmed correctly yet:

(Kill two at start, then none):
1/9, 1/7, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, scum win

Kill two at end:
1/9, 1/8, 1/7, 1/5, 1/3, scum win

Note the 1/8 chance of limming correctly vs 1/4 (math is more complicated than this but shows they're not equivalent EV)

[VP Baltar]

If you lim mistyx and then me you could

In a scum me world, why wouldn't I just lim you first and then try to get mistyx? A bird in hand etc.

The simpler answer is I'm town. Starting to think you're scum with mistyx and and that's why you're so dead set on killing me today. If you were town, you'd have similar worries to me about the game state.

[VP Baltar]

Two kill example in a 8:1 9p cause I don't feel like doing multiple scum odds:

Chance of limming scum each day assuming haven't limmed correctly yet:

(Kill two at start, then none):
1/9, 1/7, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, scum win

Kill two at end:
1/9, 1/8, 1/7, 1/5, 1/3, scum win

Note the 1/8 chance of limming correctly vs 1/4 (math is more complicated than this but shows they're not equivalent EV)

This isn't a 9p game and doesn't factor in the fact scum can get multiple kills in a phase.

[Dwlee99]

Those literally just exacerbate that saving kill til the end of being able to maximizes scum EV ignoring power roles

[Dwlee99]

If you lim mistyx and then me you could

In a scum me world, why wouldn't I just lim you first and then try to get mistyx? A bird in hand etc.

The simpler answer is I'm town. Starting to think you're scum with mistyx and and that's why you're so dead set on killing me today. If you were town, you'd have similar worries to me about the game state.

How would you flip me and then not get limmed tomorrow? Are you forgetting we are in a 1v1 right now?

Simpler answer is you're scum because the alternative is that Andres fucked up the description of the bomb cause I've already shown by the rules that there is no way a scum role could cause a bomb to explode

[VP Baltar]

It would make the pool smaller if town start blowing every bomb and scum held kills to the end.