Mini 2270: Spring Fling!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

The Dance ends in: (expired on 2022-05-02 15:00:00)

The Mafia have elected to kill Noone

Players may now leave their partners[Double Death] and vote for Pairs to leave

Upon an elimination[either via vote or leave, we will check for ELO and go to Final Dance or Till Death do Us Part]

Upon reaching deadline I will ask the Mafia to privately submit a pair to eliminate

[Ginngie]

Oh fuck off

[mykonian]

I don't see the problem here.

Not sure I believe that they don't realize it's night phase

but what if she did!

[Cephrir]

anyone have a read on whether scum are happy with the gamestate or scared to do anything

yeah me neither

[Ginngie]

It would have been one less player i have to read and mafia took that from me.

[Ginngie]

I will say Andantes vote has made me lose a lot of confidence.

It feels like faking emotions. Like this is my first game playing dance but even i figured out what actions are viable during whichever game phase.

[mykonian]

I'd have my ideas about it but I don't think this is the place to go into that kind of wifom.

And you have plenty of reads, hardly a problem.

[Ginngie]

I’m chill with Datisi Dunn or myself and Andante tbh

Also @Bell: if you mean how i post here, it’s a style i adopted during 2016-2018 where treating the thread as Twitter became super common. There was a geriatrics playerlist that formed to have games that banned that style lol

[Bell]

Lol.

[Bell]

This player list is very good, but I can’t imagine what went through their minds for that choice.
Though yes, I immediately thought of cephrir and their “let’s just bluff that everything is fine”
Nk stuff. Then they just said it in thread. But i’m not really clear who *else* makes that choice.

[Bell]

VOTE: Datisi

[mykonian]

I'm happy to go along with that.

[fireisredsir]

anyone have a read on whether scum are happy with the gamestate or scared to do anything

yeah me neither

if i were to guess it would be that they are happy with who is likely to be the top choices for elimination and don't want to mess with any of the pair dynamics

[fireisredsir]

there's 4 pairs left and 2 scum. there must be at least 2 pairs that are fully town. i think there's a lot of reasons why scum might not want to shoot their own partners (if they aren't paired together). the question is, why would scum choose not to shoot in one of the fully town pairs?

the two possible reasons i can think of:
- those pairs are likely to get elimmed
- among those players, there's too much risk that whoever gets left behind will ask to pair with someone who is paired with scum

the second possibility imo points to datisi or maybe myko as scum. dunn is the most townread player and likely would leave datisi if given the chance. bell is also pretty townread and i think might leave myko depending on who asks?

[mykonian]

I'd have love to have seen that.

I think I'd have a fair chance.

[Ginngie]

Ginngie - Andante

Mykonian - Bell

Cephrir - fireisredsir

Dunnstral - Datisi


I gotta math real quick

3 town/town pairs, 1 scum/scum pair

6v2 This phase
4v2 Final dance
2v2 GG


2 town/town pair, 2 town/scum pair
6v2 This phase

1 town/town pair, 2 town/scum pair
4v2 Final dance
elim town/town pair GG
[line]100[/100]
4v2, Final dance
elim town/scum pair

1 town/town pair, 1 town/scum pair
3v1 Final dance

no matter what we gained the ability to eliminate a pair today and try again.

Based on the numbers I feel like I have no clue what to derive from all that.


Well, one thought is that a scum/scum pair is widely townread and not worrying at all and think they can coast to victory.

The town/scum pair, I feel like that leans more into the four players in those pairs reads are wildly varied.

So with no kill, I'd point to one of the pairs that have no votes on them at all being a scum/scum pair because they'll just see town eliminate each other.

Actually no, no kill points moreso to it being a 2 town/scum pairs.

The math if there was a scum/scum pair and they killed

6v2 Till death phase
5v2 proposal
[IF SCUM/SCUM PAIR] lolreject town if they try to elim your scum partner
4v2 final dance

---

6v2 Till death
5v2 proposal
[IF SCUM/TOWN PAIR] proposed to town and scumbuddy ejected
5v1 dance
3v1 Final dance


If there was a scum scum pair, they could easily get rid of an entire voting phase to win the game. Just auto reject the proposal and you're in final dance(for clarity an auto reject is equivalent to town eliminating someone in a town/town pairing).

Idc who you are, no amount of wifom is worth trying to fight an entire extra voting phase.

So I think we're looking at two town/scum pairs because what we're seeing is the only real optimal play.

I gotta be legit if it's 2x Town/Town and 2 Town/Scum

Ginngie-Andante Town/Town
Ceph-Fire Town/Town
Bell-Myko Town/Scum
Dunn-Datisi Town/Scum

Now I just need to prove these reads.

[mykonian]

there's 4 pairs left and 2 scum. there must be at least 2 pairs that are fully town. i think there's a lot of reasons why scum might not want to shoot their own partners (if they aren't paired together). the question is, why would scum choose not to shoot in one of the fully town pairs?

the two possible reasons i can think of:
- those pairs are likely to get elimmed
- among those players, there's too much risk that whoever gets left behind will ask to pair with someone who is paired with scum

the second possibility imo points to datisi or maybe myko as scum. dunn is the most townread player and likely would leave datisi if given the chance. bell is also pretty townread and i think might leave myko depending on who asks?

I think the first one doesn't work.

Unless I'm doing the math wrong, they gave us an extra full elim (instead of just a new pair forming) right? So if they had something lined up, they could just shoot into the other pair. My first guess would've been the second, yes. But it's very wifom.


I am happy to be convinced about Dat scum.

I don't think it's Bell. I think if you bus mala you do it for points, and I could see her push on you as distancing, but that seems like effort from a lurking position. Odds are, you are on the right side too. Bell for one assures me that you always play that way. I think Andante is quite clearly being buddied by mala and I don't see that as a scum scum interaction, nor really the post that was quoted with Prism. I also think Andante started the game playing their town meta, they just really aren't with it now. I'd say Dunn is pretty town in general anyway.

That leaves three players. Datisi who I don't really know all that much about after all, Cephrir who I liked how they talked, except for when Bell suggested he'd pair with you, Fire, and we saw a bit of AtE thrown around.

admittedly the Mala interaction with Prism is weak and I have my worries about Ginngie at times.

[Bell]

If we’re looking for the scum pair that nobody suspects that’d be fire/Cephrir right now. They’re sitting the prettiest.
But like, the sheer idea of a ceph/fire pair both being scum isn’t even worth considering. The probability is 0.

[Ginngie]

Ya know, myko, we could come to an agreement, we both think Datisi is scum. There has to be at least one town in Datisi, Myko, and Ginngie.

So, really, even if we both suspect each other, we also share the ability to vote Datisi. Sure we could argue from each other's POV that it was a bus, but at the end of the day, mafia is eliminated regardless.

IDK if I'm making it clear, but like, from your POV, if I'm scum and Datisi scum, I'm simply bussing. From my POV, if Datisi scum and you're scum, you're simply bussing.

At the end of the day anyone can claim that you and I are bussing, but in both scenarios datisi is scum. So it's like, hey for this phase let scum bus scum if that's your opinion.

[mykonian]

we could also wait for Cephrir to vote first and say that's bussing.

[Andante]

I will say Andantes vote has made me lose a lot of confidence.

It feels like faking emotions. Like this is my first game playing dance but even i figured out what actions are viable during whichever game phase.

lmao what?? how am I faking emotions?? want me to leave the dance?

[Andante]

I think my partner might be maf… but then the question is with who…

[Andante]

if I leave, can I be assured datisi and dunn are next to go?

[mykonian]

no, you'd have to vote for that.

sit.

[Andante]

if for whatever reason datisi and dunn are t/t I’m auto leaving
VOTE: Datisi