Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[catboi]

Like to me, Mastina’s catch up looks like damage control.

I kind of agree, but I wasn't sure if I was reacting to what seems like an ill-founded suspicion on me. I was also hesitant because it seems like a few players have found her to be townie so far. I'm especially curious about catboi's read.

mastna's reads are often not very logical as town.

[catboi]

damage control for what

Probably a Catboi partner

There’s definitely scum in the people that are defending/town reading Catboi. At least 1, even if Catboi ends up being town

I'm fairly certain there's much more than 3 people defending me, so it's not like they can all be my partners. I wouldn't doubt that there's some scum defending me, just by sheer amount of numbers and the fact that not every scum is going to want to push an elim, especially if they think I'm town, but this is a very vague accusation. It's a broad brush stroke that avoids getting into specifics about who might be scum to instead blanket discredit the people defending me.

[catboi]

By the same token though, I wasn't too keen on Catboi's equal willingness to join the wagon before then backing off again. Felt quite opportunistic and was a useful way to get the heat on them to die down a bit, while perhaps agreeing a bit more with players they'd clashed with a bit.

I am fairly certain I am still voting bnuuy, and haven't backed down on that, although I haven't been pushing it because I wasn't really fully present in the game yet. bnuuy was also someone I had wanted to look into because I had read their ISO before that and felt they were null-ish and wanted to look into them more, and a comparsion to how they played in another game as town felt like they were being pretty scummy here.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Neither player is too interested in the game. Inactive, lazy takes and easy shades. Etc.

I have both posted more than you and certainly had more thought out takes than you. For the record, I was stuck in a high-intensity game offsite when this started that severely diminished my ability to focus on this game which is why my posting did lapse for period of time. I hadn't intended it to be that way, this game just kind of filled by surprise when I was signed for other one. I had assumed being MS and this having a long deadline I could take it easy for at fisrt. Regardless, that's done now and I can focus my full attention on the game.

Ok?

[catboi]

I super dislike flavor leaf maneuvering toward a possible elim of mastina for the beloved princess claim

[NorwegianboyEE]

Catboi did you think i referred to you or did you just want to say you've done more than me and had better takes than me for shits and giggles.

[catboi]

So that's where I'm at, would prefer Catboi, but will go Mastina.

On second thought, i'm not sure i trust Mastina because last game with scum!Mastina went like this:

Mastina: I'm going to town and scumread people for their one-liner RVS posts and make a big reads list.
Mastina: Norwee is top town.
*Dips from game for a long time*
Mastina: Cephrir is scum for a vague reason. I'm going to harp on this vague scumread for the rest of the game.

This game:

Mastina: I'm going to town and scumread people for their one-liner RVS posts and make a big reads list.
Mastina: Norwee is top town.
*Dips from game for a long time*
Mastina: Butterchurn is scum for a vague reason. I'm going to harp on this vague scumread for the rest of the game.

I JUST DON'T TRUST IT ANYMORE.

This is super lazy analysis, though. Like, yes, she did that last game as scum but the things you're describing are generally playstyle indicators for her, she's frequently inactive and behind, especially if a game is as fast as this one, but it happens to her as town too, and comparatively this game is still only midway into day 1. The thing is as scum she doesn't really do any solving and tends to leak TMI which leads to playing in a bus-heavy way (which I sort of got at that game but didn't have a good way of explaining it that would convince people). This game, I think butterchurn is more or less obviously town, which is why mastina is way more likely to be town for coming in with a scumread on him.

[catboi]

Catboi did you think i referred to you or did you just want to say you've done more than me and had better takes than me for shits and giggles.

oh, I COMPLETELY misread what you were saying. I feel like an idiot.

[catboi]

I think I would happily elim either

Nashville or catboi

at this point, with probably a preference for Nashville? I can definitely see a case for mastina being scum, but am less sure on that.

Nashville is also embodying the characteristics of an scum hydra.

Neither player

is too interested in the game. Inactive, lazy takes and easy shades. Etc.

I realize now you were referring to

the hydra

, but I saw "neither player" and thought it was in response to wallflower mentioning my name along with Nashville. My bad, reading is tech, etc.

[catboi]

Yeah, I read that as him saying that Day 1 could actually be the most beneficial time to eliminate a Beloved Princess, because there are the maximum amount of town role actions available. So, I guess the risk is mitigated if she is a town Beloved Princess, and there's also a good chance of her just being scum. I'm not really sure how accurate that is, but I did have a thought along those lines as well.

there's also little to no other claims out there, so scum can't PR snipe well, so it's just mowing down people.

Scum can also choose not to kill because they only to kill 2 times in each 3 phases.

On this, do we reckon all scum teams kill tonight? I'd initially expect so since it's D1 and the game is still big enough that you can probably eliminate someone as scum and get away with it without people making obvious associatives. But then it obviously gets trickier further down the line once role player are perhaps revealed - if you don't have a kill, you risk them being able to live another day.

I would avoid engaging in any speculation about what scum will do with their night actions, I don't see it as being helpful.

[catboi]

Odds on Mastina's alignment:
Town(70%)
Scum(30%)

I just realized Mastina can't be a jester because the setup is pre-revealed. And while Mastina could be scum I am against eliminating her and find the idea of doing so scummy in general, but not as scummy as the bnuuy wagon.

30% is an insanely strong scum read on Day 1, btw.

That is almost never actually true. In a normal game it's >rand. In this game where the setup starts off at 39% scum, it's the opposite.

[catboi]

god I'm dumb I should read ahead a bit before replying immediately to everything

[catboi]

i think i'd still lim malcolm if given the opportunity

Reading through their ISO and I am really, really split on Cassowary.

On the one hand, I like their posts as a rule - not too confrontational as such but the logic is mostly solid.

They TR'd me at a time when it would have been easy and opportunistic for them to hop onto a wagon.

Their suspicion of Monkey felt perfectly reasonable at the time and similarly to me they have progressed on the slot as the game has gone on. They've pushed the slot a bit but not gotten too hyper-focused on it either.

And the fact they have TR'd Sword early on to a degree gives me an indication they're not just opportunistically pushing slots for easy eliminations.

But by the same token...given the multiball setup, it also feels like they're employing a fairly cautious and careful style that allows them to scumhunt in a way that helps them avoid any suspicion while perhaps managing to be subtle mafia. Their post count is fairly thin so far and in terms of pushes they've not done much beyond going for Monkey a bit before backing out and tentatively - but still not really - pushing Flavor a little bit.

like this doesn't say anything it just makes him look like that he's putting in work

Reading back I'd be surprised if Mastina/Nashville are aligned. Nashville saying they don't necessarily believe the claim but don't think it's scummy feels like an incredibly weird way for a teammate to try and defend another teammate...easier to just openly believe the claim.

If Mastina is town, perfectly feasible Nashville could be taking a punt on Mastina not being on the other team and viewing it as a good chance to try and build some town-cred going forward. In fact if Mastina is town I'd be very surprised if no scum attempt to do this. Obviously scum can't definitively know Mastina isn't rival scum but the odds drop significantly if Mastina isn't in one of their teams, statistically speaking.

like this doesn't really say much again a random toothless comment that makes it look like he's putting in work

Eh, no, I feel like the analysis is coming from a legitimate place even if it's fairly inconclusive, guy just bleeds town with what he's doing, looking all over the place, having takes on everything, reads are evolving and he's considering new angles. You might feel like the cassowary pos is busywork but it'd be just as easy for scum to NOT say anything there, guy feels like he's legitimately trying to solve the game. I think someone mentioned him being hedgy in other games? I might read some of his other games to check but I really don't think Malcolm is likely to be scum here.

[catboi]

FL continues to pick up Black hearts I see.
even sharing them with the MonkeyMan...

@The Keeper:

can I ask what you mean by this? I assume it equates to a scumread but the binding of isaac wiki tells me it's a powerup so it's a little confusing

[catboi]

Controllllll

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=88500

Thanks. On a first glance, that does have a similar feel to it. Interesting then that in her first readlist, the 3 people she said she was most suspicious of were her 3 scum partners. I feel like that's important context.

I doubt she would replicate that exactly

, and in fact, I know she didn't, since I was one of her top 3 in this game. Here it was me, Flavor Leaf, and MonkeyMan.

I would not make that assumption.

However, since you're likely to look at those games and go "wow she's doing the exact same thing in all of them, she is lock scum here", here's an ISO from a town game in a large. It's been a long time since I looked at it since it was over a year ago, but quick skim of the start, all the same stuff some people are taking issue with this game.

(kinda hate to drag the game down in meta discussion but mastina is kind of a singular player and

so much

of what is being discussed about her isn't really telling of her alignment at all)

[catboi]

We think that Flavor Leaf is scum and has taken great efforts to establish narratives this game to control the flow of the game. Setting up strong ideas that it is this person vs that person, or that this other person is pocketing people, that scum are covering for Catboi and that mastina is a good elimination (she's not). They feel like they're talking past us and setting up their own version of events for this game. It doesn't feel like he is focused on finding and killing scum so much as trying to push narratives today and trying to get people to think about the game in certain ways.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

Wow, this is what I was thinking, guess I shouldn't have read the scum PT with Well Done before I started my catchup and slipped that that's what we were talking about :3

(but seriously, good post.)

[catboi]

Yes and stop disagreeing with us about every single thing

Dumb read but I think this is an uber-towny post for Dunn

[catboi]

the zeal from FL just seems town tbh

i just don't know if he's right about things but i don't really see it coming from scum

Townreading Flavor Leaf for "zeal" is probably not a good idea. Granted, I didn't believe he'd play the way he's playing this game as scum but I'm wavering a bit now.

[The Keeper]

Someone might have to ELI5 the whole 2002 thing.

I'm just happily monching my playdough cookies.

[catboi]

omg

that's not the question that's being asked

OK

For your question, the probability of at least 1 anti-town player being within a group of 4 players in this game is 86%

so the point is that Flavor leaf in all his "mafia genius" is calling out 4 people as catboi defenders stating that there's definitely 1 scum within them.

i'm trying to point out how ridiculous that call out is. 86% is a high chance that any 4 people with at least 1 being scum

so i don't want him to be like "look at how right i was" if he turns out to be right because he's making a speculation where the odds are on his side

Great post thank you for putting it in more concrete terms

[catboi]

@Well Done - You wanna act like this is anything different when I know for a fact Dunnstral knows I play this exact way as town. Catboi is doing the same exact thing with the "pushing whoever pushes them" but you chose to ignore it.

That is super not true, the only person pushing me I called scum was Wallflower, and I suspected norwee, but that's hardly

everyone

and you know that. Total misrepresentation.

[catboi]

Sword of Ducks
Save The Dragons
Tracer Bullet
MonkeyMan576
Bnuuy

Malcolm
WallFlower
Menalque
Norwegian
Cat Scratch Fever

Toogeloo
MegaZumarill
Enchant
Butterchurn
Tictac
Klick

The Keeper
Well Done
Nashville Dreams

Mastina
cassowary

catboi

Those scumreads look really fucking bad for the most part to me

[The Keeper]

I should move my vote from StD at some point... the question is... to where...

oh and I was my own special lil tier. I found the Super Secret Room which I think had a soul heart in it... it's been a while.

[catboi]

Flavor Leaf calls anybody who pushes him scum.

There's also only been like 3 people, and Catboi has done the same thing with Tictac, Wallflower, and Norwegian with their post, as well as jumping on Bnuuy to get themselves free.

I suggested ticatac was scummy before he started pushing me though, not the same thing at all, and you're ignoring that I haven't called names like klick, megazumarill, toogeloo, or well done scum, all of whome were either voting me or expressing suspicion of me

[The Keeper]

I'm still 100% in support of day 1 eliming the Beloved Princess. Lowest risk for what could possibly also be scum, PRs are still hidden, scum would be firing blindly, possibly getting a few cross kills.

Is the Malefactor essentially just a 5th scum member for both teams with no ability to communicate with them? Or are they more akin to a Serial Killer? I didn't see anything on the wiki about a Malefactor, but their win con suggests they are aligned with either/both scum factions but don't get a kill of their own. I'd assume in this setup, they are bulletproof. Do they win even if dead as long as town loses?

3P who wins with town loss. Even if eliminated. They're a miselim and once identified, should just be given the Camo Pants and ignored.