KTaNE [game over!]

[Bell]

Uh, I have a lot of off games.
So it’s just the standard now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't think Andante is easy to mislim

and I know you are using Mena's dead body to hard shove me.

Also I'm kind of surprised you think scum!me tries to shove town!you at this point in the game when you are basically UTR and by your own admission Andante/Enchant are "easy mislims" so it's kind of strange to me that you are now saying that me pushing you is a scumclaim.

What should I even be townreading from you atp?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Uh, I have a lot of off games.
So it’s just the standard now.

Uh you just got both scum correct in the dance game

here you have wrong reads on every scum and shoved three town deaths and I would make #4.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

not even wrong reads

you more or less avoid discussing any of the three scum slots in any detail

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

still kind of wild you can say andante/enchant are easy mislims and you also say you are hard to mislim as town and you seem to think scum me would push you here

like lol funnies

I'm p sure i just get yeeted here but maybe i will get deadsheeped let's see

[Bell]

I’m fine with that too.

[Datisi]

vote count 8.01

• with
  7
  votes in play, it takes
  4
  to make a decision.
  
• day 8 ends in
  (expired on 2022-05-14 20:45:00)
  .
  
• 2
  players who have the most nominations will be bomb experts on n8.

execution:

PookyTheMagicalBear [2]:

Dwlee99, Bell

Enchant [1]:

Andante

Andante [1]:

Enchant

Bell [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

not voting [2]:

GuiltyLion, Cat Scratch Fever

bomb expert nominations:

GuiltyLion [1]:

Dwlee99

not nominating [6]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Andante, GuiltyLion, Enchant, Cat Scratch Fever, Bell

eligible to be nominated:

PookyTheMagicalBear, GuiltyLion, Dwlee99, Cat Scratch Fever

ineligible to be nominated:

Bell, Andante, Enchant

mod notes:

• the vote counter is acting weird and i'm counting votes by hand, let me know if i make any mistakes.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Was just thinking about the scum nightkill situation and I wanted to write this out.[Assuming Andante!Town - which from the dayplay, the bussing, the faked guilties, the rigged bomb spec probably is close to 100% atp]

We know scum started 1 NK, got 2 NKs from VPB defusals, and 1 NK from GLion/Andante then +.5 NK from Glion.

which puts us at 4 scum nightkills.

We have 1 used on Greeting and 1 used on Cephrir which means scum can have max 2 banked at beginning of the night.

If Bell/Enchant/Andante are scum, they can blow up GuiltyLion and shoot someone - that opens today with 5 players alive; mislim me, they go to 4 -> Blow up someone/shoot someone game over -> 2 Game over.

If scum is not in Bell/Enchant/Andante - for example Dwlee/CSF/Pooky - this is still the correct play to accelerate to elo today because there's no reason to expect Glion to survive - there is literally no reason to save the nightkill.

So the only reason scum don't pursue this line of play is if one of their nightkills was blocked somewhere along the way and they're actually sitting at [1.5] kills tonight and they need the extra mislim. (for example if Andy town then 4.5 kills -> .5 kills means they can't nightkill tonight)

Now take a look at when a kill might've actually been blocked;

N1: GuiltyLion(Mena) Pooky(Andres) Frogster(CSF)
N2: Bell(Andres) Bell(CSF)
N3: Greeting Killed
N4: Andante(CSF)
N5: Mena(CSF)
N6: Cephrir Killed


Bell says that I tried to kill him on N2 - but this theory makes very little sense if you actually think about scum strategy - why would any scum decide to SKIP shooting on N1 and shoot instead on N2?

It makes sense in exactly one scenario - if you are trying to frame the defuser on N1 - as in trying to make it look like the player who defused on N1 successfully is actually mafia then maybe you skip the n1 kill to pretend it got blocked and then shoot on n2.[We know scum didn't do this because VPB is mafia and it doesn't make sense to frame your own defuser - if anything scum definitely SKIP nightkilling on N2 because if you NK on N2 you make your own defuser look shady as fuck]

I think the reason the scum shot on N3 is to make it look like VPB defusing twice N1/2 gave them a NK and they used it on N3 -> which supports scum shooting on N1 on N1 and getting blocked somewhere.

There's little reason for scum to shoot either GLion or Frogster on N1 - ergo I was the target of being NKed on N1 or the scum nightkill on Andante(n4) was blocked.

I strongly believe now that I was the target on N1 because I don't think scum decide to not kill in that scenario[remember the ideal situation for scum is nightkills on N1/N3 that makes it look like VPB is town defuser and scum are following standard nk procedure]

Now why does scum decide to shoot me of all people on N1:

1) The top group of townreads is being set up with a rigged bomb - literally no reason to nightkill in that group.

2) I'm in the second group of townreads and I am the most skeptical person of all of them in terms of scumreading VPB.

3) I'm kind of a pain in the ass for them to deal with and VPB does not really want to continue keeping me at bay and he knows I can readflip on a dime if he fucks up anywhere down the line - this has the added bonus of freezing my reads in place on him.

4) It looks really really good for scum!VPB if I get shot after he convinces me to let him live because why would scum!VPB shoot town!pooky after town!pooky lets him live?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I vote we wait for a little more clarity on Titus' plan cause I don't think I understand what she was suggesting

but I also am fully reassured Ceph/Pooky are both town now

^

Read the sequence from this post.

Bell is very clearly "paranoid" about this turn of events from our hood where Titus gambited a fake investigation on VPB and it caused everyone in the hood to decide that this was an all town hood.

That's the worst possible scenario for Scum!Bell to see POE shrink like that.

Now I know for 100% certain this 4 player hood is all town [Ceph(nightkilled) Titus(blown up by Bell) GuiltyLion(Defused Twice) Me]

It makes sense for Bell to kill this hood because he doesn't

know

exactly what happened in this hood but he does know that he can't let the hood survive because he can get POE'd out.

Hence why the Ceph Nightkill and Titus getting Blown up. I suspect he might've wanted to kill GuiltyLion but maybe something GuiltyLion posted in the PT last night caused him to change his mind on whether he's better off with GL alive rather than dead.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Bell gave me some minor pings in the PT, he was asking a few busywork questions to Baltar about whether he prefers playing town/scum, how often VP Baltar posts as scum, which I thought could be fake solviness. I didn't understand why he was assuming the bomb defuse was likely to succeed, and he was expressing suspicion towards me which I thought might have been positioning to push me today when the bomb blew up. He did have one really townie feeling sentiment about being able to outpost me if I'm scum and I try to push him. But frankly the bomb defusing successfully I feel points to him being town again - I don't see why scum!Bell would swap misty into the hood and yet then give correct info and not sabotage the bomb.

uh this makes a lot of sense

VPB went again cuz (2/3) people in the bomb PT were his scum buddies

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

final bomb squad is:

experts:

• Bell
  
• Mistyx
  
• GuiltyLion

defuser:

• VP Baltar

the information for the defuser and experts will be going out shortly. night 2 starts now and ends in

(expired on 2022-04-04 20:35:00)

.

look at this bomb PT again and see if it makes more sense if you're the only town player in there and they're just doing some bullshit scum theatre

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the swap where VPB -> defuser and Misty becomes an Expert is designed to make it look like scum are trying to kill VPB again - spared once, spare again.

Misty jumping into the open VPB spot maintains the scum influence in the PT at 2 experts and really they only have to convince GL to get VPB his second defuse

[Enchant]

Andante and enchant dragged me into sparing GL.
It was against my will. :< I’m weak to peer pressure.

Really.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Let's assume we have All-Town Expert Team d1, which are SANE. Yes i know it's hard to believe but look. Mafia then chooses someone Townie-Townie who town wants to save, they obviously do, but "Bam", he dies anyway. Everyone pissed on everyone, chaos. Town can't possible kill all four too fast. Others fill in Expert Niche, others will be defusers. Of course, mafia will never make previous experts defusers, they make self. And more likely they defuse than not.

It was possible for mafia to win, while town tried to shred in search of day 1 sabotour which never existed in first place.


Of course, this plan failed, because of hilarious reasons, but VP still managed get 2 defuses. When i voted him and suggested to "check" how much defuses we have, it didn't find almost none support. Then VP just takes and blows up Andres for hellwhat reason, blowing his cover, just blows how many defuses mafia have. Of course it was idiotic move, so i supported him, because i didn't expect he really act like that as scum.

Enchant do you remember writing this yesterday about how Andante can't be scum because scum tried to frame Andante with a rigged bomb on N1 ?

[Enchant]

Oh hey Not_Mafia didn't expect to see you here!

[Enchant]

Let's assume we have All-Town Expert Team d1, which are SANE. Yes i know it's hard to believe but look. Mafia then chooses someone Townie-Townie who town wants to save, they obviously do, but "Bam", he dies anyway. Everyone pissed on everyone, chaos. Town can't possible kill all four too fast. Others fill in Expert Niche, others will be defusers. Of course, mafia will never make previous experts defusers, they make self. And more likely they defuse than not.

It was possible for mafia to win, while town tried to shred in search of day 1 sabotour which never existed in first place.


Of course, this plan failed, because of hilarious reasons, but VP still managed get 2 defuses. When i voted him and suggested to "check" how much defuses we have, it didn't find almost none support. Then VP just takes and blows up Andres for hellwhat reason, blowing his cover, just blows how many defuses mafia have. Of course it was idiotic move, so i supported him, because i didn't expect he really act like that as scum.

Enchant do you remember writing this yesterday about how Andante can't be scum because scum tried to frame Andante with a rigged bomb on N1 ?

I remember.

[Bell]

Andante and enchant dragged me into sparing GL.
It was against my will. :< I’m weak to peer pressure.

Really.

IRL I have a hard time saying no to things.
But not really in this case. I’m just making a joke.

[Enchant]

Yeah, i realised, it was just lame.

[Bell]

Yeah, i realised, it was just lame.

Yeah. I agree.
It’s just awkward. Because I think Pooky is scum and I can’t really take their case against me seriously.
Because it’s simply too convoluted for me, though I know me saying that will result in Pooky trying to say, ‘actually, it isn’t that convoluted” been down this road before.

[Enchant]

Bell, why you killed Titus actually?

[Dwlee99]

At pooky re: all the nightkill stuff, I believe I have shown that it's the case that saving excess kills is correct from a scum EV standpoint, especially with no clear PRs to kill. I might be wrong but I think you should look at that before assuming scum attempted to kill N1. It's also kinda likely scum didn't know this, however, so it's actually still possible they tried to kill N1 as a result

[Dwlee99]

Two kill example in a 8:1 9p cause I don't feel like doing multiple scum odds:

Chance of limming scum each day assuming haven't limmed correctly yet:

(Kill two at start, then none):
1/9, 1/7, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, scum win

Kill two at end:
1/9, 1/8, 1/7, 1/5, 1/3, scum win

Note the 1/8 chance of limming correctly vs 1/4 (math is more complicated than this but shows they're not equivalent EV)

[Dwlee99]

Town EV first scenario: 0.69523809523

Town EV second: 0.64444444444

Second maximizes scum EV

[Bell]

Bell, why you killed Titus actually?

It’s honestly hard for me to justify myself. I guess the difference is that, for the most part I had more confidence on GL town when he showed up to a party he wouldn’t have invited himself to if he were scum and Pooky is a big enough threat that I felt like if I didn’t take the risk we might lose.

[Andante]

Didn't CSF claim a doc thing.. that was direct CCs with Mena... and the only reason mena was yeeted? what happened to that