KTaNE [game over!]

[Dwlee99]

Didn't CSF claim a doc thing.. that was direct CCs with Mena... and the only reason mena was yeeted? what happened to that

You think that is why mena was yeeted?

[Andante]

I believe that became a major part yes

[Bell]

We were the exact same group that blew up Titus after all. Enchant and andante are pretty unstable and I didn’t endorse GL town much in thread. It felt more necessary I guess. ESP. Because I thought it was just mena going into the previous day and once that flipped I was back in oh shit mode.

[Enchant]

Who the fuck you call unstable.

[Bell]

Who the fuck you call unstable.

You two! You two are very random and confusing and I never know what you’re going to do! It’s really hard to read or understand you two! I don’t understand your logic!

[Enchant]

That's obviously not true. I can understand self well.

Yes Enchant? Yes i do.

[Dwlee99]

I believe that became a major part yes

It was the associatives

Mena wasn't even limmed the same day as CSF's claim

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Who the fuck you call unstable.

You two! You two are very random and confusing and I never know what you’re going to do! It’s really hard to read or understand you two! I don’t understand your logic!

I don't think either Andante or Enchant are as random and enigmatic as Bell is making them out to be.

Also like it's pretty clear imo the scum kills are following a plan and not like random wild shots in the dark.

Do either scum!Andy or scum!Enchant skip a nightkill to hold it for 5P? I have my doubts they plan that far ahead.

killing Titus, Cephrir and having Glion "defuse" is not a coincidence.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Didn't CSF claim a doc thing.. that was direct CCs with Mena...

and the only reason mena was yeeted?

what happened to that

what on earth

and yes I am lazy jk

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Pooky did raise a point I didn't think of before; Frogster was unlikely to be killed N1 because he was probably in that rigged group

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

At pooky re: all the nightkill stuff, I believe I have shown that it's the case that saving excess kills is correct from a scum EV standpoint, especially with no clear PRs to kill. I might be wrong but I think you should look at that before assuming scum attempted to kill N1. It's also kinda likely scum didn't know this, however, so it's actually still possible they tried to kill N1 as a result

except scum do not know from the beginning how many nightkills they will get and when - they only know at the end whether the schedule accelerates.

Also in this game elo happens at 5 alive because they can go 4 -> doublekill -> 2 alive game over if one scum left.

if there are two scum elo happens at 7 alive -> 6 - > 4

Town wants to be on Evens for elims not odds because of the way doublekill works into parity.

That's why 7 alive is not necessarily better than 6 alive.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

I'll be

v/la this Friday - Sunday

weekend tripping : )

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

have fun!

[Enchant]

I am lazy as fuck.

VOTE: Pooky

[GuiltyLion]

sorry all, work this week was a lot and it's my birthday this weekend so I got some fun plans for tonight and tomorrow. I might have some time to play late late tonight (no promises though) or tomorrow morning, but otherwise probably can't really commit hardcore time to this game until Sunday at earliest.

My one game related point I can make now is -Pooky, while you are right in a vacuum that scum could go from 4->2 and win which means 7 is not as much better than 6 as it is in a normal game, you're not really accounting for the fact that scum defuse is limited to only a subset of players, townies can safely defuse anybody who hasn't defused a bomb yet which is everyone other than Andante, and scum won't have an NK every single night unless they've still got one sitting around they haven't tried to use. So your argument is a little disingenous/misleading to downplay how 7 alive w/ conftown is still strictly better than 6 here.

I would argue that correct play for townies is to blow up Andante but defuse anybody else tonight

I will say you have an okay point about it making sense from scum!Bell if he thinks I'm deep enough in his pocket to set him up to win, but also when I reread the N2 hood a while back I came away with the impression that Bell wasn't aligned with misty/VPB. I'll reread it again at some point soon but yeah I remember Bell-Misty looked fairly unaligned in particular

[GuiltyLion]

[Assuming Andante!Town - which from the dayplay, the bussing, the faked guilties, the rigged bomb spec probably is close to 100% atp]

also I know I'm being Captain Buzzkill constantly harping on Andante this whole game but like, if I were town in Pooky's shoes, I really don't think I'd be anywhere near 100% townread confidence on Andante. I do feel like she's probably town, largely for the rigged bomb spec and her D1 associatives, but none of the fake guilty-ing or "bussing" (which she really didn't do this game...) are things I would say make me convinced she was town.

[Enchant]

I think GL heal should be avoided at all cost.

[Enchant]

HEAL: Dwlee99
HEAL: CSF

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

My one game related point I can make now is -Pooky, while you are right in a vacuum that scum could go from 4->2 and win which means 7 is not as much better than 6 as it is in a normal game, you're not really accounting for the fact that scum defuse is limited to only a subset of players, townies can safely defuse anybody who hasn't defused a bomb yet which is everyone other than Andante, and scum won't have an NK every single night unless they've still got one sitting around they haven't tried to use. So your argument is a little disingenous/misleading to downplay how 7 alive w/ conftown is still strictly better than 6 here.

Scum are at 1.5 nightkills(assuming andante town)

Assume I get mislimmed here(6 players)

Scum picks any townie to defuse tonight

either that townie will die or defuse.

if the townie dies and scum nightkill - they wake up at 4 alive - that's ELO tomm

if the townie defuses and scum nightkill - they wkae up at 5 alive and have 1 nightkill - that is also ELO tomm.

if the scum blows you up instead of letting you defuse - they still end up at elo tomm.

You living literally changes nothing except helping the scum if you are going to be voting for me.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

We know scum have 4.5 - 5 NKs (they have 4.5 if Andante is town and 5 if Andante is scum)

we have had 2 nightkills hit(Greeting, Cephrir)

So scum have either 1 nightkill saved up for tonight and they got blocked once OR they have 2 saved up OR they have been blocked twice.

I believe it doesn't make sense to save more than 1 NK because it doesn't help you get to elo any faster, look at the blocks - can you even find 2 potential nightkill blocks?

However it makes a lot of sense for scum to save exactly one nightkill because of the way they approach elo here.

[Dwlee99]

I think GL heal should be avoided at all cost.

Why?

[Dwlee99]

I believe it doesn't make sense to save more than 1 NK because it doesn't help you get to elo any faster, look at the blocks - can you even find 2 potential nightkill blocks?

I went over the EV, saving kills is +EV for scum

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

My point is that regardless of whether scum are at 6 or 7 alive -

their goal is to eliminate me today and win at elo tommorrow.

This is true regardless if GuiltyLion defuses or not in the PT.

If GuiltyLion is in the PT claiming that he will vote for Pooky - then scum in PT have no reason to blow GLion up.

It takes 4 votes to kill Pooky at 6P and 7P - why kill a potential Pooky voter when you can save them, make them indebted to you and get closer to killing Pooky and getting to Elo?

[Enchant]

I think GL heal should be avoided at all cost.

Why?

It merits nothing.

There's no need to protect GL from being defuser. There's now 2 defusers and thus blowing him up is death sentence. More over being defuser protects from being killed directly.

There's risk GL ends up in expert team with scum, who will simple blow up any person they want, NK GL and then claim it was GL decision to blow up, regardless of what GL really thinked.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

it literally doesn't matter who gets experted anymore