Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

I didn't like that he didn't give me any pushback to scumreading him at all because I think town!him would wonder why I'm misreading him right away but scum!him might feel more scared and fearful of engaging immediately.

idk exactly how i responded to you misreading me in panic room but i feel like it was similar? except this time i find you more suspicious but thats unrelated i think. idk i don't usually push back that hard on people scumreading me in general

panic room was more cuz of the bella repout due to pressure from being a bomb theory then actually reading your play tho :<

mmm it may have been but i don't think that came across in thread, you were talking about how my tone was less confident and more careful etc. felt p similar there to here

except that there it seemed like you believed it

here idk if you really believed that from a page 1 suspicion i would just freeze up and stop posting as scum lol

[skitter30]

i dont really get the awkward read

he feels fine to me >_>

Dunno. Early interactions between the two of u certainly felt forced and unnatural

[fireisredsir]

I could get here. Why is malakittens more town than save the dragons? @NK15 and @fireisredsir

mala vs save the dragons is just vibes to me. save the dragons has scummy vibes and mala has slightly towny vibes. sry if you wanted a convincing explanation lol

not very strong on mala, but im feeling less sure on datisi/menalque and ari is kinda scummy imo so mala is what's left

[Aristeia]

if we're t-t i think its just my fault for being more restrained than usual I guess.

[skitter30]

Like 37 -> 38 -> 47 feels really off, for example

It wasnt entirely you, was dats also. This whole sequence + extended dialogue felt weird

And tbf so does 253

Why are u townreading me again?

[Menalque]

like, re: skitt

what do you think you could have done to reliably sort skitter when she hasn't even got 30 posts yet? I'm really sceptical that literally anyone on site could say that they're confident she's town based on that amount/what she's done so far

that doesn't mean treat her like scum -- I advocate the opposite -- but even doubling up on that, it's going to be very hard to reliably read her as town based on what she's actually done without anything concrete

To begin with: there's a 75% chance she's town.
Then: She said things in the dat/ari/skit opening to the game that I agreed with (like "you two feel weird")
Following: She rightly pointed out that me saying "more people should heal me" is sketchy without really coming for me. If she's scum she probably should have come for me as a widely townread townie, unless she thinks I'll lead town off a cliff based on my current trajectory

Even if the second & third things are only worth like 2% points of towniness each, there's now a 79% chance she's town. Good enough to sit in my coalition until the paranoia comes for me

okay, here's my problem with this:

(1) any player has a higher chance of being town than scum looked at purely randomly -- if you applied this to each player you'd be right in each case that the random % chance was better for scum than town, but you'd still just be shooting in the dark at random, which only leads to whatever the non-charisma based version EV gives for win %. it is a good argument for why to deal with people in good faith though
(2) do you think that scum!skitter wouldn't be able to note the same "weirdness" between dats/ari? if scum!skitt would also be able to recognise these things, then why would she not also point them out? I think this is NAI
(3) I can see why that can be perceived as sketchy but don't really think it is. I don't see any reasons why scum!skitt would necessarily see anyone as being a big enough threat at this point in the game that she'd risk compromising herself by going for them off the bat

again, not saying I think skitter is scum here, but I don't think the arguments you've put forth for why she's better-than-rand % town are convincing

[Menalque]

I think mena is probably town
(Fwiw r.e. your approach to me: i think my game has gotten a bit worse recently, and that ari should probably be in the bucket you usually put me in, and that i'm probably not in the same tier as her these days, but i dont like inherently oppose or object to this approach to me, and can understand it
)

okay, noted -- I'm inclined to still sort you as normal, but I'll maybe put a bit less of a BoP on you than I have sometimes in the past as acknowledgement of that

Sure. Like i said feel free to do with this as you will, i'm not saying you should change how you approach me, or not, i'm just sharing how i feel abt my game now vs in the past

no, I appreciate the heads up, ty!

[Aristeia]

Like 37 -> 38 -> 47 feels really off, for example

It wasnt entirely you, was dats also. This whole sequence + extended dialogue felt weird

And tbf so does 253

Why are u townreading me again?

didnt we already have this conversation

[Aristeia]

also I kind of don't think scum!skitter directly comes at me this early >_>[if she did it just to get townread I guess I'm dumb]

Nah, i dont

[Menalque]

It's the only thing able to throw off Ari off balance like that

could you please say in your own words what you mean by Ari being thrown of balance

[Menalque]

ari
skitter
irre
nk15
std
datisi

hmm

don't think I like this list

at all

[Irrelephant11]

like, re: skitt

what do you think you could have done to reliably sort skitter when she hasn't even got 30 posts yet? I'm really sceptical that literally anyone on site could say that they're confident she's town based on that amount/what she's done so far

that doesn't mean treat her like scum -- I advocate the opposite -- but even doubling up on that, it's going to be very hard to reliably read her as town based on what she's actually done without anything concrete

To begin with: there's a 75% chance she's town.
Then: She said things in the dat/ari/skit opening to the game that I agreed with (like "you two feel weird")
Following: She rightly pointed out that me saying "more people should heal me" is sketchy without really coming for me. If she's scum she probably should have come for me as a widely townread townie, unless she thinks I'll lead town off a cliff based on my current trajectory

Even if the second & third things are only worth like 2% points of towniness each, there's now a 79% chance she's town. Good enough to sit in my coalition until the paranoia comes for me

okay, here's my problem with this:

(1) any player has a higher chance of being town than scum looked at purely randomly -- if you applied this to each player you'd be right in each case that the random % chance was better for scum than town, but you'd still just be shooting in the dark at random, which only leads to whatever the non-charisma based version EV gives for win %. it is a good argument for why to deal with people in good faith though
(2) do you think that scum!skitter wouldn't be able to note the same "weirdness" between dats/ari? if scum!skitt would also be able to recognise these things, then why would she not also point them out? I think this is NAI
(3) I can see why that can be perceived as sketchy but don't really think it is. I don't see any reasons why scum!skitt would necessarily see anyone as being a big enough threat at this point in the game that she'd risk compromising herself by going for them off the bat

again, not saying I think skitter is scum here, but I don't think the arguments you've put forth for why she's better-than-rand % town are convincing

You're right that I'm sort of misusing random chance as a way to read people as town. But on the other hand I think it IS actually a good reason to not just write off good scum players who are also good town players - since they're more likely to be town, you shouldn't be afraid to townread their towniness

[Irrelephant11]

I don't know the more I argue it the less I believe in it but at the same time it helped me win coalition games before so I'll just keep it as my own thing and convince you skitter is town later if I feel the need to do so

[Aristeia]

ari
skitter
irre
nk15
std
datisi

hmm

don't think I like this list

at all

who do you scumread on the list?

[Irrelephant11]

I guess the team I would like currently is

5 of

ari
skitter
irre
nk15
std
datisi

if thats what you were asking about.

Why is NK15 town fypov?

[Aristeia]

i think he believed what he wrote about me

[skitter30]

Ari do u think i ought to be townreading u?

[Irrelephant11]

Hm.

and why is datisi town fypov? @aristeia

[Aristeia]

i might be biased about dats but i tend to townread him when he digs in on things in realtime

[Aristeia]

Ari do u think i ought to be townreading u?

well i do think im p townie but other people say im not so ~shrug~

[Aristeia]

I guess one way you could tell is that I'm trying to dial back on my thread presence because last time it was quite unpleasant for everyone that I was that loud and forceful and I wouldn't really exercise similar restraint if I'm mafia because I'd feel obligated to force my way into coalition whereas here I'm fine letting others lead.

[Aristeia]

yes I know that sounds silly given that I have the most posts but I really am trying to restrain myself more! >__< [which is also another reason you don't see like 200 posts from me flirting with Dats <3]

[Menalque]

ari
skitter
irre
nk15
std
datisi

hmm

don't think I like this list

at all

who do you scumread on the list?

I don't really have any scum reads yet but I don't think that any of (you, skitt, dats, nk15, std) have done enough to warrant inclusion on the coalition yet, with a marginally lower objection to dats being there than anyone else

[Aristeia]

I don't really have any scum reads yet but I don't think that any of (you, skitt, dats, nk15, std) have done enough to warrant inclusion on the coalition yet, with a marginally lower objection to dats being there than anyone else

do you think any of mala/fire/you have done more than the people on my list?

[Menalque]

You're right that I'm sort of misusing random chance as a way to read people as town. But on the other hand I think it IS actually a good reason to not just write off good scum players who are also good town players - since they're more likely to be town, you shouldn't be afraid to townread their towniness

I would definitely agree with not writing them off -- in fact, I think the best way to catch them is often from trying to work with them instead of tunnelling them, or from just sort of observing and seeing what they do without trying to pressure them off the bat

I guess what I'm really trying to say is that there need to be hard reasons for TRs on them -- thoughts or progressions that would be very hard to fake as scum, behaviours that wouldn't come from scum -- narrowing down which of those things are actually likely/unlikely depending on alignment becomes easier with more information (i.e. flips, results). but I think on D1 in particular, reads of X person as being towny should be thoroughly interrogated because people are often wrong in mafia, gut is often wrong, and if gut can't be substantiated with reasons for why person would do a thing as town but not as scum then it shouldn't be trusted (unless person has an exceptionally high accuracy with this borne out across multiple games)