In post 6182, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Was just thinking about the scum nightkill situation and I wanted to write this out.[Assuming Andante!Town - which from the dayplay, the bussing, the faked guilties, the rigged bomb spec probably is close to 100% atp]
We know scum started 1 NK, got 2 NKs from VPB defusals, and 1 NK from GLion/Andante then +.5 NK from Glion.
which puts us at 4 scum nightkills.
We have 1 used on Greeting and 1 used on Cephrir which means scum can have max 2 banked at beginning of the night.
If Bell/Enchant/Andante are scum, they can blow up GuiltyLion and shoot someone - that opens today with 5 players alive; mislim me, they go to 4 -> Blow up someone/shoot someone game over -> 2 Game over.
If scum is not in Bell/Enchant/Andante - for example Dwlee/CSF/Pooky - this is still the correct play to accelerate to elo today because there's no reason to expect Glion to survive - there is literally no reason to save the nightkill.
So the only reason scum don't pursue this line of play is if one of their nightkills was blocked somewhere along the way and they're actually sitting at [1.5] kills tonight and they need the extra mislim. (for example if Andy town then 4.5 kills -> .5 kills means they can't nightkill tonight)
Now take a look at when a kill might've actually been blocked;
N1: GuiltyLion(Mena) Pooky(Andres) Frogster(CSF)
N2: Bell(Andres) Bell(CSF)
N3: Greeting Killed
N4: Andante(CSF)
N5: Mena(CSF)
N6: Cephrir Killed
Bell says that I tried to kill him on N2 - but this theory makes very little sense if you actually think about scum strategy - why would any scum decide to SKIP shooting on N1 and shoot instead on N2?
It makes sense in exactly one scenario - if you are trying to frame the defuser on N1 - as in trying to make it look like the player who defused on N1 successfully is actually mafia then maybe you skip the n1 kill to pretend it got blocked and then shoot on n2.[We know scum didn't do this because VPB is mafia and it doesn't make sense to frame your own defuser - if anything scum definitely SKIP nightkilling on N2 because if you NK on N2 you make your own defuser look shady as fuck]
I think the reason the scum shot on N3 is to make it look like VPB defusing twice N1/2 gave them a NK and they used it on N3 -> which supports scum shooting on N1 on N1 and getting blocked somewhere.
There's little reason for scum to shoot either GLion or Frogster on N1 - ergo I was the target of being NKed on N1 or the scum nightkill on Andante(n4) was blocked.
I strongly believe now that I was the target on N1 because I don't think scum decide to not kill in that scenario[remember the ideal situation for scum is nightkills on N1/N3 that makes it look like VPB is town defuser and scum are following standard nk procedure]
Now why does scum decide to shoot me of all people on N1:
1) The top group of townreads is being set up with a rigged bomb - literally no reason to nightkill in that group.
2) I'm in the second group of townreads and I am the most skeptical person of all of them in terms of scumreading VPB.
3) I'm kind of a pain in the ass for them to deal with and VPB does not really want to continue keeping me at bay and he knows I can readflip on a dime if he fucks up anywhere down the line - this has the added bonus of freezing my reads in place on him.
4) It looks really really good for scum!VPB if I get shot after he convinces me to let him live because why would scum!VPB shoot town!pooky after town!pooky lets him live?
