Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[skitter30]

Like i guess i dont understand your point around the difference between 1 and 2 scum being in. Isnt 2 scum being in better?

why were you thinking it's better for scum to have 2 in rather than 1?

I think that's a given, no? If we find one scum in the coaliton people are gonna think rhat's clean and start looking out of it (std even said he didnt think of that possibility iirc)

[skitter30]

i just woke up from my nap

i had a dream that me/skitter/dats were drinking at a bar

I snoozing on Datisi's shoulder because I had a bit too much to drink and his shoulder smelled nice

Skitter was fighting with the waiter because she had too much to drink and he wanted her to drink this giant pitcher of water and she was not having any of that.

Not terribly useful but just something cute I wanted to share. <3

Thats v cute thanks for sharing

[skitter30]

Ok i'm very indecisive and need to like Think things over but rn i'm leaning towards dats/irrel with a healthy amt of paranoia for the other 2, there is a fair chance this will change significantly by, like, when i wake up in the morning

[Aristeia]

on the other hand

1) you double the odds of hitting scum in coalition where the elims always start.[makes it hard to mislim early]

2) you have awkward associatives because they have to townread each other to get in in the first place.

3) you have to nightkill in coalition after hitting scum to maintain the "illusion" that the coalition is clean which means the second scum has to be positioned perfectly[can't be too townread]

4) you don't have anyone out of coalition which is usually more influential after coalition failure just from having.


I think it's more likely we have 2 in if like scum are less in control of who is going in coalition and unsure about getting in which doesn't really fit with how d1 played out imo.

[skitter30]

1. I dont think that's such a big issue tho, because again once we're found the scum people wont be scrutinizing the remainder so strongly
2. I mean a lot of people in that coalition were townreading each other (i.e. were widely townread), so i dont think it would be super hard to townread each other in this game
3. Ok this is a fair point
4. True but looking at this pl. And the 4/5 split here, i dont think it would be super hard for, say, scum-me me to be very influential after flipping scum-dats lets say, and i think you can swap those names around and add you/irrel to either position too

So i dont find this super compelling
I'm not saying we have 2 in but i dont think it would be super difficult for these possible permutations of the scumteam and i dont see a reason why it would be

I also disagree with ur last point as well: i think a game where both scum are fairly highly townread would have an easier time than a game like you're proposing

[Aristeia]

like from my POV you had a core group of 4 - [skitter/irrel/mena/std] that you wanted - you couldn't decide on #5 and you were ok with putting Datisi in for #5.

So if there's 2 scum in the coalition + you are town it would have to be 1 person in Irrel/Mena + Datisi or exactly Irrel/Mena.

If you had someone in Irrel/Mena already scum, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Datisi to push his way in too so it would be basically Irrel/Mena?

[Aristeia]

scum-me me to be very influential after flipping scum-dats lets say

I think it would be very strange for you to survive the night after flipping Datisi!scum given your UTR status going into coalition.

[skitter30]

I mean fair but basically everyone wanted him in and was townreading him, do u think he would have declined putting himself in as scum?

Like i'm not sure he's pushing himself in in that universe, he i think towards eod was close to a given.

Pedit i was putting random names in each spot, i could have just as easily written scum-you
My point was i dont think the surviving scum of those 4 names inherently loses influence by virtue of not being out od the coalition

[Aristeia]

I mean fair but basically everyone wanted him in and was townreading him, do u think he would have declined putting himself in as scum?

I don't think he works that hard to get in if his partner is already in and you've stated you want to flip him if the coalition fails

[skitter30]

I dont think he worked that hard tho, ans he made ir p clear he was planning on putting up a fight
Either way this is kinda a moot point, i'm not saying there are 2 scum, but rather that i dont think its impossible/unlikely

[Malakittens]

VOTE: mena

[skitter30]

Why do u think mena?

[fireisredsir]

ok some thoughts on this phase so far

skitter: i don't really think she has that reaction to the coalition failing as scum? like yea obviously the play is to look like frustrated town and to be all like "ah i knew we should have done this instead", but the thing is that i don't think the direction she went was ever gonna hold up?? like i feel like doing that is only ever going to weaken her position (and it did, datisi started scumreading her more for it). and its just not really the kind of play i have seen from scum skitter, i don't see why she fakes that and weakens herself just for a hope at a tonal townread. that's not at all what I would expect from scum skitter

ari: ari feels genuine to me this phase in her responses to skitter. it feels to me like she is really trying to solve and advance town wincon with her posts without necessarily pushing the narrative that she wants. i also think the whole "ill just sheep skitter" followed by "i wouldn't do that as scum because it's giving up too much thread control" is like... she made literally those exact two posts as town, about skitter, in the previous game, as town. i just... do not think she would mirror herself that hard as scum bc its like way too noticeable for me/skitt/datisi who were in that game as well. maybe that's dumb. idk.

datisi: datisi i feel has somewhat painted himself into a corner if he is scum here by having too many townreads. i really just don't think he's scum cause imo he would be playing up the paranoia way more (which i think tbh everyone would expect him to be doing anyway) and he literally would need that paranoia to be kicking in right about now so that he can have a believable progression on whoever he wants to miselim next day phase. he would end up being fine without it, probably, but i feel like its just kinda risky and limiting his options too much. im less confident about the townread on ari point tho cause i went and looked and he did similarly townread her as scum in the large 238 without much explanation (altho he did think she was traitor secretly)

ive realized that a lot of these points are "i don't think this person would do this as scum" which i also realize is probably not the strongest reasoning even tho it is something that i tend to do a lot. idk. maybe i should accept at some point that i don't actually know what other people would do, but its more fun to imagine that i do

anyway i think these are all town and will be very unlikely to vote for them unless someone really convinces me or mena and irrel have both died and flipped town in which case i hope im nk'd by that point cause i don't want to have to figure that shit out

[fireisredsir]

also side note but i really like this setup

its so cool having a day 1 where everyone is still alive but we also have a bunch of voting pattern info and some mech info from the coalition forming phase

i almost don't even mind that we got it wrong cause this way we get to play more (((:

maybe its a different feeling being outside the coalition vs inside lol

[Aristeia]

it would be lowkey so ironic if the scumteam is just skitter+datisi

[Aristeia]

rite ratobarita urusu ariarosu baru netoriiru

[fireisredsir]

[Aristeia]

it takes a lot of effort to restrain myself because I really do want to be carried :<

[Aristeia]

skitter: i don't really think she has that reaction to the coalition failing as scum? like yea obviously the play is to look like frustrated town and to be all like "ah i knew we should have done this instead", but the thing is that i don't think the direction she went was ever gonna hold up?? like i feel like doing that is only ever going to weaken her position (and it did, datisi started scumreading her more for it). and its just not really the kind of play i have seen from scum skitter, i don't see why she fakes that and weakens herself just for a hope at a tonal townread. that's not at all what I would expect from scum skitter

what do you expect scum!skitter to do

[Datisi]

good morning to everyone except my neighbour who decided to loudly mow the lawn right underneath my window at early morning hours of a sunday

[Datisi]

Datisi can you stop whiteknighting menalque and make him play his own game? thank u

i mean i can but like. that towncase i made is one of the most efforty cases i've done on someone and i do not like it when i feel like my points are being handwaved away simply because i'm not able to explain them properly or because people don't actually care to get it right so

Not terribly useful but just something cute I wanted to share. <3

this is very cute thank you for sharing <3 though i think i am very rarely the least-drunk friend in a bar :>

At eod tho, again, my point goes back to u wanting dats/yourself over std, and that's where my suspicions are stemming from, as that's the point if difference in my mind, and nof really what i wanted, and i very strongly consider him town

this is something that i wanna circle back to later but the tl;dr is that i went though skitt/ari interactions and there were a lot of posts from skitter where skitter was very much open to the idea of ari being in a coalition, or like slowly nudging in that direction

so the immediate pushback on d2 how this is not what skitter wanted and she is so frustrated that this isn't the coalition she wanted when she pretty much spent more time hinting at being fine with ari being in the coalition and saying how she's not really pushing her own coalition or not playing that hard feels a bit Off

Is it bad that i'm kinda rekindling nk15/dats here?

yes
(1) why do i bring up the game where he loltunneled his own partners first
(2) this universe would be 100x easier to win if i don't shut down the nk15 townreads in the beginning but instead scumread enough other players to get him into the coalition, flip him, then carry myself; as opposed to getting myself into the coalition and banking on winning by flipping 3 out of skitt/irrel/mena/ari before myself
(3) i don't have the wim to play like this with a deadbeat partner who's doing nothing but tunnelling me in thread
(4) i'm not scum

These are kinda like two different things in my mind, but i will try to explain
My point of failure for the coalition is like ari/dats
I dont think the issue was mena being in there, but given ari/dats i had a stronger townread on std and would have preferred him over mena
You can kinda add an arrow after mena pointing to std in the second quote to explain my read hierarchy

so basically what you're saying is: you townread std over all of the current coalition members (excluding yourself)?

[Datisi]

also skitt when you're back i do want a kind of an elaboration on 1189 - how do you see the gamestate at the moment of the coalition forming that you think it's viable for ari to do this? like i said in 1201 why i don't really think it's realistic for ari to try to do that but i want to hear your pov i guess

I think i answered but lmk if u wanf something else

not quite, you just gave up on the idea you were proposing earlier which was puzzling to me - read my first paragraph in 1201. from my pov, it feels like if scum!ari attempted to do what you were describing earlier, flip me first, it would end up Very Badly for her because that's not where the consensus is and she knows how screamy i get when i'm being pushed for bullshit and also she has set zero foundation for actually doing that.

like i was asking how did you think she was gonna accomplish that / why did you think it was a viable path for scum!her to do that

[Datisi]

i was gonna ask fire what does he think scum!skitter would be doing after the progressions she had on d1, but i see ari already asked that >.>

anyway when you're around, skitter, let's jam because i feel like the only reasons you suspect me are (1) awkward interaction with ari back on like page 0.5 (2) ~*paranoia*~ and like. those are not really good reasons.

[Datisi]

Mend?

He was kinda my idk if I want to switch him in or out player

(1) have you read my towncase on him (2) do you have reasonings for any of those reads

VOTE: mena

Why do u think mena?

ok i'm gonna channel my inner dkkoba for a second:

malakittens explain the scumread on menalque challenge (120% impossible) (gone wrong) (not clickbait) (not sponsored)

[Not Known 15]

I've found another possible scumteam:
Menalque/Malakittens
These two players ignore each other completely(mena) or waffle on the other's alignment(Mala).