Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Aristeia]

I dont like it because I have doubts that both you and dats are wrong about mena at the same time

but also like we did kind of sideline 4 people out of coalition and this is the flip they want so for the sake of fairness maybe I should just shut up.

I am conflicted

also mena not talking really doesnt help -__-

[Aristeia]

1 seems like a poor choice considering you aren't likely to really get much cred for it

I mean if you're scum and off coalition and everyone else off coalition wants to vote your scum partner I think you kind of just go with the flow?

it's not really about good strategic choices as much as "meh whatever"

[Save The Dragons]

i dunno about nk15 but i'm feeling a little better about them now that they're not tunneled but i still don't know how i feel. i think they're wrong about ari and datisi and it's hard to reconcile that feeling but i've liked recent posting so i'm not so sure they're scum

i think i just need to take a breath

i'm not confident in menalque but i'm not really confident in any other person being scum inside the coalition and i'm not convinced by arguments

- i don't think he's so out of tune with the viable coalitions as scum
- i don't think he's so picky about who gets in/out as scum
- he tries to buddy me more as scum / get on my good side / defer to my reads/pushes to try to win some points
- he tries to have more of an ~impact~ as scum, as town i don't think he cares (see: his last scumgame, where he faked a guilty on his partner. he's way more out of tune with what's going on rn)
- i think he'd try to keep up more and exert more influence as scum, here he's more laid back and less trying to control/direct things

in short i don't think how he's played this game is how he would have as scum

i don't know that he was out of tune with viable coalitions i think he had mostly a viable coalition

i don't know that he was picky other than not me, see below

If I need to change because we don’t have numbers tell me literally right now who I need to change it to

I’m not voting StD tho

as for the rest like maybe i can't argue how he'd behave i don't really know him but they're not super impactful arguments to me. i feel like some of it is nai he's been busy like have you asked yourself if scum!menalque just doesn't have enough thread presence here because he's been busy? i mean maybe you're right and he's been too laid back to be scum i dunno i don't really know what to do here

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: unvote
want to hear from mena

[Irrelephant11]

the general willingness from most of menalque's viable partners is certainly giving me pause
Really really really really really really really don't want him to be town though because almost every post I read from skitter, datisi, and aristeia feels so pure and solve-y and effort-y and TvT, to the point where I have started skimming them so I don't town-tunnel (is that thing?) too much on that trio. just being honest here.

I know there's stuff I need to reply to but I'm waiting till tomorrow, I really shouldn't even be spending time on MS today I'm so busy but like I said it's a compulsion

[Menalque]

okay I'm kinda back

[Menalque]

miles behind and disliking how I seem to be sliding into the default elimination position tho

[Menalque]

VOTE: StD

[Menalque]

I refuse to live in a world where StD is town

[Menalque]

Let's see:

[snip]

i don't know how to argue against my reads not being nuanced or "real" because they are real and i don't do a lot of nuance i don't think so that's kind of a playstyle thing i think

i think that it's menalque for reasons i've already outlined and i think you are a possible partner so it could be both of you. i need to go back to your posts and see if there's something there, i guess i owe you that but i don't know if i'll do that soon or not

[snip]

let's get into this because both things are why I think StD is probably scum

makes two claims here that are important: (1) his reads are real and (2) he's outlined why he thinks I'm scum

now, referring back to earlier StD posts:


This is probably counted in the "why mena is scum" grouping, but it's actually mostly just arguing against why Datisi's towncase for me is any good

[snip]

but not talking about me, i just don't see what's so townie. like yes there's talk about ari/skitter and there's talk about irrelephant being town but what else is there? some questions? that's in his scumrange according to the game you linked which i still think is a poor example of meta that you're trying to pigeonhole into a good argument.

regarding ari and skitter i just don't see it dude 1) he could easily back out of it if needed 2) it's NAI to have reads on certain players for being "good" or "better" 3) i don't see how he's planning for the future see point 1 4) there's a slight chance that ari/skitter are a partner that they're trying to downplay and distance from 5) not doing something last game as scum isn't really a precursor to not doing it as scum in the future if he thinks ari will "play around" his tell of her so he's not telling us what it is certainly he knows how to change his own damn meta

i dunno maybe i'm just wrong and i'm looking in the wrong place??? but i don't think your case is as ironclad as you want to believe

like look at the first para -- it's not addressing the substantive points of what dats is saying but instead trying to simplify it down to "empty ISO"

look at the second -- the only points actually relevant to me being scum are "1) he could easily back out of it if needed" and "4) there's a slight chance that ari/skitter are a partner that they're trying to downplay and distance from" -- 2, 3, and 5 are all just negative points trying to critique Datisi's reasons for me being town instead of saying why I'm scum

okay, what about earlier?

[snip]

i just don't see 146 as a jokey vibe

142 sucks unless it was a joke

i dunno man i'm not sure what this is trying to say

[snip]

i don't think 150 says at all what you are saying it says and i think you are trying hard to make it fit this narrative that he is town

[snip]

i read this iso and i get that the case is not "he lurks as scum and he's not lurking here!" but then you bring up the post count argument so i guess it kind of is? but i just don't think there's enough to really tell, i don't think the vibes feel that different

[snip]

not wanting to heal ari/skitter on the basis of clout is just as NAI as me not believing in that shit. in fact i think it's more likely to come from scum to try and pocket.

i think just because he's playing to his town meta here doesn't make him town, i think "not wanting to form townblocs until he's ready" once doesn't equate to him being town here.

[snip]

you use the phrase empty air i dunno what i'm supposed to take from this other than he was kinda lurking. i just don't know what mena's done to accomplish a solvable game. i will state i noticed he asked a lot of questions as scum and hasn't done that exactly here so maybe there's something there but i'm not seeing it. i don't even like meta arguments anyway i'm just indulging it for the sake of argument but i just don't see it, sorry.

[snip]

maybe

[snip]

the two town cases look a little different i'll give you that but i don't think it's outside the realm of possibility they come from the same alignment.

[snip]

still yuck, you're trying to throw everything against the wall to see what sticks

[snip]

674 looks performative to me like "look i can't be scum i'm hunting but i'm not going to tell you how hehe"

look at these on their own. is any single one really a believable reason for a read? like, they're all about trying to argue for why Datisi's reasons are bad but they're not advancing why I'm actually scum

146 "doesn't seem jokey" 150 "doesn't say what you think" "don't think the vibes feel that different" "not wanting to heal ari/skitt is NAI'" -- not even scum, just NAI "just because he's playing to his town meta doesn't make him town" "hasn't accomplished a solvable game" "not out of the real of possibility they came from the same alignment" "still yuck, trying to throw everything at the wall to see what sticks"

not until the FINAL POINT do we hear anything approaching a positive reason for why datisi is wrong and I'm scum, which is an old fallback of StD's that we'll talk about again, "674 looks performative to me"

VOTE: menalque i don't think i'm convinced by datisi's case

i don't think the meta argument that this is not his scum game is a very good one, the game linked doesn't have a ton of posts from him and i don't think it's outside the play other than he lurked i guess but he kinda lurked a little here too

the post count argument sucks sorry

someone tell me i'm crazy paranoid for thinking datisi and menalque are the team and they took a concerted effort to force me out of the coalition by sandbagging me at the last minute and datisi bringing menalque's star upward

there's no way. they both had each other in their coalition somewhat early too.

[snip]

i think this was mena's first heal, so if they are the team i guess they would have had to decide to both be in the coalition or to try for it

looking back i'm not sure why irrelephant got pushed up and i got pushed down despite having similar takes on the game that sounds like a playstyle thing not a scum thing that bothers me a bit

i dunno if you want a reason for the vote maybe his iso is shallow. no but seriously i think the tone is off it feels fake to me at times

i want to look at ari a bit next

"if you want a reason for the vote maybe his iso is shallow. no but seriously i think the tone is off it feels fake to me at times"

so again, there's a shitload of qualification as he makes the vote "maybe" his iso is shallow "feels fake to me

at times

". it's "the vibes" that are off. so far

the only actual reason that StD has given is that I've been performative at one point

the

entirety of his game and "read" on me have been based around that since post 146

there is no progression here. there is no nuance. there is no development or weighing or genuine intent to engage with what is being said.

what is there are excuses to continue voting where he wants, sidestepping engagements with actual arguments, and clinging on to self-reference when asked to justify anything

[snip]

ari - i don't know. i mean i think it's genuine i think there's something about her posts that i just *believe* you know. i get the paranoia though.

datisi started off as a scumread for me but maybe i was wrong about it but maybe my gut was onto something there. i don't know, i need to read datisi again, but i remember really liking a lot of his posts

irrelephant i just don't think is scum. there's a small tiny teensy weensy part of me that is like "what if they're scum trying to pocket you" but i guess i don't really see the point so i'm not really indulging this theory

menalque suspects me for reasons that in my opinion are weird or NAI so i don't know it's hard for me to ignore that but i should probably get over it like i said and see what else this slot contains. i still think the entrance was potential performative scum entrance but i dunno about other stuff

i don't really see skitter as scum but i don't know this seems kind of different from the go game skitter seems to have more energy and thread presence but maybe that's because the go game was a large and it's easier to get lost. also i knew she was scum because i was traitor so i probably didn't analyze her posting as much as i could have. arg i don't have a good reason to sr skitter though; i've really liked her posts.

[snip]

so what about StD's other reads? what are the reasons behind them?

ari "there's something about her posts that I just *believe*"
datisi "maybe my gut was on to something there" "remember really liking a lot of his posts"
irrelephant "just don't think is scum"
skitter closer to actual reasons but still incredibly weak and unconvincing "skitter has more energy and thread presence". "I don't have a good reason to sr skitter" "I've really liked her posts"

mena "suspects me for weird or NAI reasons" "performative entrance"

are these believably, on the balance of probabilities, real thoughts? does StD have an opinion on absolutely everyone yet not have the capacity to say for a single one where his feelings of whether they're town or scum come from apart from "gut" or "vibe" or "I just think so"

because, as I've said before, if you can't give the reasons why your gut feels a certain way, then you don't have a reason for it and you're just guessing. unless you're right A LOT, in which case it should be easy to provide lots of evidence if you don't happen to already be a player known to be insanely accurate (e.g. Thor, Cabd etc)

the sorts of things above are exactly the type of thing scum do and say -- pick who your target is, don't re-evaluate, lack of actual reasons for suspicion, lack of beyond surface level thinking about that, focus on attacking reasons against why they're town instead of making your case for why they're scum

but let's go back to before this too, for the sake of ~progressions~:

i'm starting to think maybe i need to be okay with a coalition without me in it which makes me sad

Menalque - i wish he posted more, i wish he was around now, we'll see but i've felt good about the slot but i'm also nervous because i feel like it's the slot i might mostly likely be wrong about but i'm willing to trust people if they say menalque is good

Not Known 15 - more like not in a coalition 15. but probably town so maybe it's okay to have them in a coalition?

Skitter30 - skitter seems pure i really want them in the coalition. i've liked their emotion, their solviness, i think this is town

fireisredsir - i dunno!!!! i'm waffling so hard on this, is it town is it scum, i think i'd probably choose to leave him off just because i'm so unsure. i really like some of their recent posting, it seems town, and i liked their energy in the beginning, but i hated the way he scumread me, and i didn't really agree with his read on irrel either. i think ari had some good points about his early play.

Datisi - i'm not really afraid of the flirting and i hear ari's argument that datisi tr her so early if he always scum reads her that's a little concerning for a pocket attempt. but he seems engaged and is not trying to take control of the thread in a way that seems like he's trying to solve and justify his reads. i don't think he was trying to get into the coalition in a way that seems town, not in a way that seems like scum hiding to let their partner get in

Aristeia - again i'm not afraid of the flirting, maybe afraid isn't the right word. anyway she seems genuine and i'm sure she could fool me but i trust my read and i think she is town here.

Irrelephant11 - i really don't get any suspicion here i feel like he's trying to lead the game and i've mindmelded so much with his thought process. i want him in the coalition.

Save the Dragons - that's me!

Malakittens - i'm actually worried the increased posting comes from a scummy desperate hail mary to try and get into a coalition but maybe i'm reading it wrong, either way i'm too concerned to let her in. maybe it's a little omgusy but i'm also not convinced of her scumread of me

my preferred pool is me and 4 of {skitter, irrelephant, aristeia, datisi} which is 4 so i guess that's a coalition. i could do menalque if people really believe but i don't think i could do a coalition that strays too far from what i've said.

i wish there was a case i could argue against

i feel like fire is like vibes but i think my vibes are townie
i feel like mala is like i can't read you but i don't know why that's the case
i feel like menalque is...actually i dunno :< why are you scumreading me?

but all three can't be scum so i guess i'm doing something wrong and i'm afraid it's affecting the people who read me correctly initially and i guess it's affecting me more than it should

soooo pre-coalition I'm someone he's "felt good about" and he's "willing to trust" people who say I'm town

NK15 is "probably town" for "[no reason given]"
skitter "seems really pure"
fire is "seems town" bc "liked their energy" but "hated the way he scumread me" for "[no reason given]"
dats has actual reasons supplied
ari "seems genuine" and he "trusts [his] gut"
Relly "mindmelded" (where?) and is "trying to lead the game" -- why is this town? but it is a reason so I guess kudos on including that
mala -- "increased posting could be a scummy Hail Mary" this is an actual reason, I guess, but it's more absolute surface level engagement

this is a really busywork and meaningless readslist. there's actual explanations attached to less than half the players, and those are often weak and often fakeable. tellingly, I think his progression on me is bad because he suddenly is willing to go with me and has felt good about me but most of his earlier interaction is as seen below

I don't think it's believable that StD's reads are real. I don't think that it makes sense that StD is suddenly okay with my posts and alright with my being on the coalition only to then immediately switch back to me being scummy for fundamentally a reason that has been consistent from the start of the game.

if that reason were genuinely compelling to StD, StD would not have been okay with me going on the coalition. if it were not, and that's why he changed his mind, then his reasons for scum reading me now would be different but all we've had is critiques of Datisi's towncase and a return to the "performative" argument. along with some very non-specific "shallow ISO" comments that haven't been evidenced at all


and our final selection for the flight this afternoon:

i tend to scum read

performative

entrances

i think people have trouble getting into the thread as scum and overcompensate by being zealous or bombastic or performative

In 146 I was trying to make it clear that I was aware that 145 was not actually a compelling argument at all

But once I’d had the idea of the argument, I decided to post it anyway, because it would be funny to make a post that was trash arguing for why I’m town, only to immediately give a wink wink nudge nudge acknowledgement that it wasn’t that at all

ok how is this not

performative

Spoiler: brief point I also wanted to make but thought the ending was punchier if I finished with the above posts

also wanted to again briefly touch on how I don't think it adds up that StD is arguing about scumrange (mine, specifically) later, when this is apparently something that doesn't concern StD

this is really a playstyle gripe and is nai as far as i'm concerned

I mean I’m writing it off as mostly NAI but I think you’re wrong to take that position and I find it odd that you don’t find the reasons for why I think you’re wrong compelling

It’s the not seeing why the reasons are compelling (or perhaps me not understanding why you don’t find them compelling) that makes me suspect they may be false reasons to justify putting ari/skitt into the coalition more easily, which I would want to do if scum because it would be good cover for me

i mean i think you're wrong for putting people on a pedestal and having that affect your reads on them in this game so i'm not sure why i would find your reasons compelling

like i intellectually understand why you're doing that

but i don't think it's right

[Menalque]

I am not certain but I'm heading in the direction where I think that this may be the best play

need to do due diligence on other slots too, but I think that StD redding essentially solves the game?

[Not Known 15]

I am not certain but I'm heading in the direction where I think that this may be the best play

need to do due diligence on other slots too, but I think that StD redding essentially solves the game?

If STD is scum, then me/mala/fire are all confirmed town.
From your perspective, that means one scum in Skitter30/Datisi/Aristeia/irrelephant.
Who is it?

[Menalque]

Fucked if I know

There’s a reason I want to do StD first

[Not Known 15]

Fucked if I know

There’s a reason I want to do StD first

And that reason is...?

[Menalque]

1484

[Irrelephant11]

Menalque do you understand that mechanically we have to lim inside the coalition? There's guaranteed scum inside the coalition, while those outside the coalition could possibly be 4 townies

[Irrelephant11]

STD is semi-conftown and being entirely ignored!

i felt this in my soul because i feel like i took effort to be less vibey and more analytically for the gamestate and i got mostly shot down and it made me feel small ngl so i appreciate you seeing me i know i'm being a little too emotional and need to step back but i did appreciate this so thank you

the fact you have the same scum read as i still means you're either pocketing me hard for no reason because i have no influence in this gamestate or we're kindred town and we may be onto something here so i'm thinking it's the latter

I would be really impressed if StD wrote me this post as scum. Like, really impressed.

But I'll hear you out, Menalque. If you're town and StD is scum, why do you think the last second swap happened to get you into the coalition? Do you think scum got what they wanted there or no?

[Menalque]

Menalque do you understand that mechanically we have to lim inside the coalition? There's guaranteed scum inside the coalition, while those outside the coalition could possibly be 4 townies

I understand that there is only guaranteed scum in the coalition

I also know that limming successfully outside coalition gives 3 conftown

STD is semi-conftown and being entirely ignored!

i felt this in my soul because i feel like i took effort to be less vibey and more analytically for the gamestate and i got mostly shot down and it made me feel small ngl so i appreciate you seeing me i know i'm being a little too emotional and need to step back but i did appreciate this so thank you

the fact you have the same scum read as i still means you're either pocketing me hard for no reason because i have no influence in this gamestate or we're kindred town and we may be onto something here so i'm thinking it's the latter

I would be really impressed if StD wrote me this post as scum. Like, really impressed.

But I'll hear you out, Menalque. If you're town and StD is scum, why do you think the last second swap happened to get you into the coalition? Do you think scum got what they wanted there or no?

what about this post makes it so hard for StD to write as scum?

what do you mean last second swap? you mean the NK15 hammer? I think if that's what you mean it should be p much clearing for a me/NK15 team

if I were wrong on StD it could be that NK15 was hammering to try and make us look aligned

[Irrelephant11]

You actually make some good points, though I also think you make some bad ones. Like a big part of your read seems to require the least charitable meaning of some of StD's words. But town do that sometimes, especially when OMGUS-ing, so like I said I'm willing to hear you out.

I'll feel real bad if StD is scum because I've really fought for him but also on second thought, not that bad, because it's not like anyone else was voting for a scumless coalition Day 1 either even if he is scum


pedit: I mean I'm not voting outside the coalition, not sure if anyone else will. And it's not like I'm even asking you to not scumread StD, just find his partner if you're so sure it's him

"if I were wrong on StD it could be that NK15 was hammering to try and make us look aligned"..... I'll let you rethink this one on your own time

[Irrelephant11]

"if I were wrong on StD it could be that NK15 was hammering to try and make us look aligned"..... I'll let you rethink this one on your own time

Oh actually I misread you, ignore this.

[Irrelephant11]

what about this post makes it so hard for StD to write as scum?

Nothing about it is "hard" to write as scum

sidenote: what is with everyone's obsession on MS with sorting people by "hard to do as scum" vs "easy to do as scum"? The same stuff is hard and easy for both alignments most of the time. We should all be sorting by "more likely to be a thing this person does if they're scum than if they're town" vs "more likely to be a thing this person does if they're town than if they're scum". I think it's very unlikely that scum!StD thinks to humbly thank me for amplifying his voice.

what do you mean last second swap? you mean the NK15 hammer? I think if that's what you mean it should be p much clearing for a me/NK15 team

It's very much not clearing for a you/NK15 team. You can say it's done to frame you, but even in doing so, you acknowledge that it makes you look bad. Which it does.

[Irrelephant11]

You still here?

Do you have any partners for StD that feel likely to you? I'll even accept "Irrel" as an answer if that's where you're at, I just want to hear you talk it out. Or you could discuss how Day 2 has gone if you'd rather. You're pretty important to sort right now, I guess is what I'm saying, and you can make that easier by doing more solving

[Menalque]

You actually make some good points, though I also think you make some bad ones. Like 1 a big part of your read seems to require the least charitable meaning of some of StD's words. But town do that sometimes, especially when OMGUS-ing, so like I said I'm willing to hear you out.

I'll feel real bad if StD is scum because I've really fought for him but also on second thought, not that bad, because it's not like anyone else was voting for a scumless coalition Day 1 either even if he is scum


pedit: I mean I'm not voting outside the coalition, not sure if anyone else will. And it's not like I'm even asking you to not scumread StD, 2 just find his partner if you're so sure it's him

"if I were wrong on StD it could be that NK15 was hammering to try and make us look aligned"..... I'll let you rethink this one on your own time

(1) okay, where am I doing this? I'm aware it's something I do at times but I try to catch myself in check

(2) well, yes, ideally, but I am confident in StD scum and not sure who is scum out of (you, ari, skitt) at this point

I think datisi is town, though

[Menalque]

what about this post makes it so hard for StD to write as scum?

Nothing about it is "hard" to write as scum

sidenote: what is with everyone's obsession on MS with sorting people by "hard to do as scum" vs "easy to do as scum"? The same stuff is hard and easy for both alignments most of the time. We should all be sorting by "more likely to be a thing this person does if they're scum than if they're town" vs "more likely to be a thing this person does if they're town than if they're scum". I think it's very unlikely that scum!StD thinks to humbly thank me for amplifying his voice.

what do you mean last second swap? you mean the NK15 hammer? I think if that's what you mean it should be p much clearing for a me/NK15 team

It's very much not clearing for a you/NK15 team. You can say it's done to frame you, but even in doing so, you acknowledge that it makes you look bad. Which it does.

if you are town. StD, if town, would say that and it would make you more likely to TR them. if StD would/could make the exact same post as scum quite easily, then the post is meaningless when it comes to determining StD's alignment.

if it's very, very difficult for someone to make a post as scum but easy for them to make it as town (see: perspective slips) then that person is more likely to be town, even if it's not for sure.

one thing that is normally hard for scum to do is to having convincing read progressions because they already have all of the info on who is good and bad. therefore someone who has lots of clear progressions in their read and you can see how they're thinking about things and reassessing is someone doing something that's hard to do as scum (pretend you don't have knowledge of anyone's alignments and then read their posts as if you can do that while also playing into a larger strategic plan which requires you to fabricate reasons to TR/SR strategically important players) vs easy to do as town (just playing the game and trying to solve lol) is incredibly likely town, and it's a useful metric

***

it's clearing for a me/NK15 team bc how the fuck does that team win in elo if NK15 hammers my coalition when we're both scum?

[Menalque]

You still here?

Do you have any partners for StD that feel likely to you? I'll even accept "Irrel" as an answer if that's where you're at, I just want to hear you talk it out. Or you could discuss how Day 2 has gone if you'd rather. You're pretty important to sort right now, I guess is what I'm saying, and you can make that easier by doing more solving

I'm missing about 4-5 pages from the middle of D2 so it's hard to judge in total

I think datisi is town still but idk where scum would be between (you/skitt/ari) atp

from what I read of the ari/skitt back and forth I'd probably lean skitter town there of the two, but ari/dats don't make a lot of sense as scum (I hope!) and I thought the argument ari made about how she wouldn't throw dats under the bus as a fall-person is true

but then that leaves you, which could be correct, but I feel greater conviction in my StD read and wonder if you would tie yourselves together so much

plus neither of skitt or ari have done anything that would be that difficult for them to do as scum