Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Irrelephant 11
No one except me so far has said that this game isn't just out of skitter's or ari's scumrange but also not outside of Irrelephant's scumrange. And with the recent trajectory I wonder if Mena is right and the team is STD/Irrelephant

lol

[fireisredsir]

why do you think im partnered with nk15

why do you think nk15 is scum

It’s not an associative-based read, you’re both my individual top picks for scum

I’m going to answer the second part after I hear back from NK15 on my most recent question

don't think you ever answered the second part

why do these points you're making about lack of progression and lack of believable reasons for reads apply to std and not nk15

like what made him your target for today instead of nk when they were previously both your top scumreads

[Not Known 15]

Case incoming.

[Not Known 15]

STD ->Irrelephant interactions:

Irrelephant11 - i really don't get any suspicion here i feel like he's trying to lead the game and i've mindmelded so much with his thought process. i want him in the coalition.

irrelephant i just don't think is scum. there's a small tiny teensy weensy part of me that is like "what if they're scum trying to pocket you" but i guess i don't really see the point so i'm not really indulging this theory

i can't do irrelephant without a really good case

STD is semi-conftown and being entirely ignored!

i felt this in my soul because i feel like i took effort to be less vibey and more analytically for the gamestate and i got mostly shot down and it made me feel small ngl so i appreciate you seeing me i know i'm being a little too emotional and need to step back but i did appreciate this so thank you

the fact you have the same scum read as i still means you're either pocketing me hard for no reason because i have no influence in this gamestate or we're kindred town and we may be onto something here so i'm thinking it's the latter

Irrelephant->STD interactions:

HEAL: Save the Dragons

Agree and noting here that I am kinda mindmelding with the dragons

I could get here. Why is malakittens more town than save the dragons? @NK15 and @fireisredsir

HURT: all

HEAL: irrelephant
save the dragons
aristeia
menalque
skitter30

Sheeping the dragon.

why

If it’s the latter, we can just agree now: neither you nor I will be in the coalition. If it’s the former, explain how I (the player who I would argue has done the most to move the game forward, but I digress) am scummier than malakittens, NK15, and your other scumread, Save the Dragons (who has the same reads as me but has done less to make the rest of the playerlist sortable).

Scummiest thing std has done is put himself in his coalitions

If dragons and I are both town, then I think it's easy to see how fire's actions could be very scum-motivated. The push needs to be hard and fast to get one or both of us out of the coalition

But if dragons is scum, fire has a good read (that either I or std is scum) and I'm just mad at him for thinking it might be me and struggling to get over myself and see that it's dragons

Fire I have to go make lunch but can you remind me your scumcase on std (can be quotes of your own posts, but also if there’s anything new) and I’ll write a towncase on him and we’ll see who, uh… idk, wins?

Pedit: why std/nk15 over nk15/menalque or nk15/skitter

@Fire I don’t think you’ll keep both me and std out of the coalition. Which of us do you scumread more and why?
(Towncasing std currently)

well i sure would like to! i kinda think that both of your most likely partners are each other

this is actually a major reason I townread std

i like 932

Just had a fun idea of sorting StD’s by pointing out key posts as scum or town posts and seeing what pops out.

18 is the first heal, on someone who had just done something lightly towny (fire) 101 is the start of a long list of times where StD healed someone and at the time I thought “yes that’s exactly right, that’s who’s towniest based on the game so far” Actually let me just add the rest of the list here as I go: 121, 170, 192,
[post]106 had what I felt were good points on datisi and fire and skitter, felt like real solving. I do remember being both impressed and surprised by the quick de-escalation of 117. Not sure that means anything AI though.
122 felt like the excited town vibe I expect from town in this setup. It’s like a fun race to gather four townies and go “yay I got 5” and that’s why I’ve played this setup so much and I felt that vibe in this post and I don’t think scum thinks to fake that?
125 and 139 seemed reasonable. I guess otoh they don’t really remove the possibility of those two scum pairings like I wish they did.
149, 152, 158 is a realistic sorting push on menalque, though I am a bit surprised at how it didn’t go anywhere. Like it started so strong and fizzled so fast. This led to some of my std/menalque paranoia later
170 was a strong townvibe post for me, *even more so* because he later updates the list twice. Aside from being funny, it’s also just kind of audacious for scum to be like “I did it!” “No I didn’t but now I did!” and I think that sort of flip flopping is towny. I suppose the fact std is always in his coalitions makes this less towny than I want it to be, though?
179 --> 182 felt real. 192 was a mindmeld for me.
292 I thought std townreading menalque for whiteknighting me was towny. Goes away if they’re s/s I guess, because I’m maybe just their target to pocket?? 300, 301 feel like a genuine effort to sort menalque though. Actually the overall trajectory on menalque seems real (313. I think.
Antacid jokes were funny, doesn’t make him town but does contrast with fire’s read that “scum std doesn’t want to be there” – it seemed like dragons wanted to hang in the thread, was having a good time. Jokes about the word “ping” too
432 was a good post
488 suggests nk/std team less likely
More back and forth with menalque around 500… meh not doing anything for me
616 was a mindmeld
I read 621 just now and thought “wait I literally thought I wrote that post. I remember writing that post. So mindmeld ig
694, 695 mindmeld. Like. I feel pretty darn confident std is town because if he’s scum I guess his plan was “somehow know everything irrelephant will think and often type it first”

I don’t have time to keep going right now, I wrote the below paragraph on and off while writing everything above. Enjoy this post it’s my Thursday Mafia Effort Post




I think everything about fire is now shouting town by play… except that I’m still scumreading the trajectory of slowly trying to replace me/std in the coalition. The one thing that feels like, starkly missing if he’s town is working harder to turn around the collective townread on me (because despite both his and my objections I’m showing up in most coalitions) or a reconsideration that since so many people are townreading me (including his townreads) I just might be town. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm is it skitter/mala or skitter/nk15 and she’s just playing as if she’s solo town, knowing she gets coalition’d in most realities, while her partner… doesn’t play?
Wait I haven’t cleared menalque either yet, probably should reread menalque before skitter. I’m doing so much work just on the chance it’s not NK/mala and that is… something.

@fire

i dunno if i agree because i've been pretty vocal about including both of us in the coalition and even if he's said it i don't think he's taken me out

I did offer to leave myself out of the coalition and my current coalition doesn’t include me so I get fire’s point. But I also think we’re both town and I would hammer a coalition with both of us

HURT: all
HEAL: fireisredsir
Save the dragons
Me
Aristeia

Town summary of std:
-having fun coalitioning (I think scum kinda dread it)
-seemingly not manipulating his way into the coalition, even when three people scumread him
-reads I agreed with
-townreading lots of townies, dangerous play for scum imo

Datisi who’s std’s partner if you’re not so sure he’s town?

StD <- I don’t see a world where scum and I have all the same thoughts for an entire phase, I think my townread is stronger than datisi’s “ehhh I don’t see it” read. See previous towncases

STD is semi-conftown and being entirely ignored!

STD is semi-conftown and being entirely ignored!

i felt this in my soul because i feel like i took effort to be less vibey and more analytically for the gamestate and i got mostly shot down and it made me feel small ngl so i appreciate you seeing me i know i'm being a little too emotional and need to step back but i did appreciate this so thank you

the fact you have the same scum read as i still means you're either pocketing me hard for no reason because i have no influence in this gamestate or we're kindred town and we may be onto something here so i'm thinking it's the latter

I would be really impressed if StD wrote me this post as scum. Like, really impressed.

But I'll hear you out, Menalque. If you're town and StD is scum, why do you think the last second swap happened to get you into the coalition? Do you think scum got what they wanted there or no?

You actually make some good points, though I also think you make some bad ones. Like a big part of your read seems to require the least charitable meaning of some of StD's words. But town do that sometimes, especially when OMGUS-ing, so like I said I'm willing to hear you out.

I'll feel real bad if StD is scum because I've really fought for him but also on second thought, not that bad, because it's not like anyone else was voting for a scumless coalition Day 1 either even if he is scum


pedit: I mean I'm not voting outside the coalition, not sure if anyone else will. And it's not like I'm even asking you to not scumread StD, just find his partner if you're so sure it's him

"if I were wrong on StD it could be that NK15 was hammering to try and make us look aligned"..... I'll let you rethink this one on your own time

"if I were wrong on StD it could be that NK15 was hammering to try and make us look aligned"..... I'll let you rethink this one on your own time

Oh actually I misread you, ignore this.

what about this post makes it so hard for StD to write as scum?

Nothing about it is "hard" to write as scum

sidenote: what is with everyone's obsession on MS with sorting people by "hard to do as scum" vs "easy to do as scum"? The same stuff is hard and easy for both alignments most of the time. We should all be sorting by "more likely to be a thing this person does if they're scum than if they're town" vs "more likely to be a thing this person does if they're town than if they're scum". I think it's very unlikely that scum!StD thinks to humbly thank me for amplifying his voice.

what do you mean last second swap? you mean the NK15 hammer? I think if that's what you mean it should be p much clearing for a me/NK15 team

It's very much not clearing for a you/NK15 team. You can say it's done to frame you, but even in doing so, you acknowledge that it makes you look bad. Which it does.

You still here?

Do you have any partners for StD that feel likely to you? I'll even accept "Irrel" as an answer if that's where you're at, I just want to hear you talk it out. Or you could discuss how Day 2 has gone if you'd rather. You're pretty important to sort right now, I guess is what I'm saying, and you can make that easier by doing more solving

I've not looked into these interactions in detail, but that's definitely the scumteam. These interactions are extremely partner-y.
STD is towning Irrelephant for shallow and evasive reasons and mostly ignores irrelephant.
Irrelephant is doing the reverse - flooding the thread with reasons to townread STD - but only after a trigger. Before post 910, when fire asks irrelephant to make a case on STD, both are acting nearly the same way, except that Irrelephant is also saying "sheeping Save The Dragons" once.
After this trigger, though, the interactions from irrelephant about STD flood the thread. But if we look into these frequent assertions of towniness these things stand out:
1.Why is there so much STD in irrelephants ISO? It completely dwarfs everything else.
2. The arguments are nearly all unconvincing, especially arguments that basically say "STD is town because I am", because if they are partners...

Conclusion:
STD has these classic partner interactions with irrelephant.
Irrelephant, triggered by a request to read STD, went into overdrive and completely over-interacted with STD to prevent being read as their partner. I really don't see why town would spend that much time on a townread.
Both townread each other to avoid their loss condition.... which is a possible plan for scum, and fits the rest of the play.
They are scum partners.

[Irrelephant11]

okay going back and rereading parts of day 2 that I skimmed earlier~

lol

I lol'd at 1378
I lol’d at 1421
I lol’d at 1447
I lol’d at 1471

i. would love a response from Mena to skitter's question in 1334

ii. 1340 reminded me I would love skitter to explain why std was her towniest read day 1

iii. @NK15 can you link some scummy posts of Aristeia's? No explanation needed, just some links. I don't want to count you and your reads out, esp. since I'm currently leaning toward a scumteam without you in it

iv.

like having std over mena isn't an indictment of mena

It sure did seem like you were upset at daystart that mena got in instead of std. Can you explain what about that made you feel annoyed, since you're confident mena isn't the reason the coalition failed? having std in the coalition instead would have had the same result if you're right.

v. skitter what is your read on me

vi. responding to skitter in 1378, mena scumcase coming soon! Today I hope I can write it out fully, but at the very least I will put all the reasons he's scum in one post.

vii.

i'm like, i will consider scum!mena. but i need a bit more to actually convince me he's viable to be scum considering i feel like he has hit multiple towntells while he's been here...

I find it notable that the two players townreading menalque are the two with (seemingly) the most experience with him. Could that be because you two are right and the rest of us are not seeing his obvious towntells, or because he's catering his scumplay to your meta expectations? (I'm guessing the latter currently, I think it's common for scum, me included, to play to the expectations they know others have of them, but then miss the expectations of players they don't know as well)

viii. 1394 makes sense to me as a progression fire had on datisi & I had similar feelings and anyway I think fire is pretty much definitely town and datisi is pretty towny today too.

ix. 1395 had me questioning my scumread on nk15 and also getting annoyed at potential-town-nk15 for how little he's played the game

x. I kinda believe skitter when she says in 1402 that her scum plan would not be to go for aristeia. That said, her theoretical scum plan included std in the coalition. Not sure what the logical end is to this thought train, sorry, my brain is boop.

xi. I kinda agree with aristeia in 1433 that nk15 is within his townrange, just based off really old memory. I wish I could 100% scumread him, but my gut is saying it’s not a 100% sure thing.

xii.

I mean ok so you're saying one of ur strongest pieces of evidence necessitates him being partnered with like exactly nk15/myself to work out?

And in the nk15 universe i honestly dont think its super likely that mena gets in in the first place (doesn't necessarily apply to the me universe i suppose).

Also per ari meta that isnt really how nk15 interacts with his partners either
Like if he's scum i think its with ari or dats

Pedit @irrel i sometimes have to pretend to work >.>

ATT I thought his potential scum partners, in order of likelihood, were NK15 > you > mala > datisi. Not sure I’d use that order anymore but at this point I still think it would be within that grouping.
I too think it’s unlikely mena gets in the coalition if he’s scum with nk15 but like… his and nk15’s votes sure did make it happen. If he’s scum I think we were gonna win until datisi/ari/fire decided they couldn’t get there on std.

xiii. Datisi has fine points for skitter being scum in 1442. Not exciting but I see the case, I read it, it makes sense.

xiv. 1450 is giving me the most hesitance about mena being scum out of anything. Definitely pulls the rug out from under one of my reasons for scumreading mena.

xv.

Nk15's vote should be alarming for everyone generally, and for irrel specifically, who thinks that's mena's partner

It was alarming to see, true.

xvi.

like nk15/mala/std contains max 1 mafia by mech so 2/3 town there at least.

and irrel is in your towncore last i checked? - if irrel is town it's a 3/4 town wagon or maybe even 4/4 town.

Hey yeah good point

xvii.

with every outside coalition person either already voting or willing to vote mena (fmpov everyone is, ig you could argue im faking willingness to vote, but w/e), either

1) someone is bussing
2) there's 2 scum in coalition
3) mena isn't scum

1 seems like a poor choice considering you aren't likely to really get much cred for it

2... maybe, i guess. purely on associations i feel like skitt or ari would be more likely than datisi/irrel? but on play i think those are town so idk

This is true but malakittens could have voted for distancing without trying to lim, but is currently not unvoting because at this point it would look suspicious

xviii.

I mean if you're scum and off coalition and everyone else off coalition wants to vote your scum partner I think you kind of just go with the flow?

Aristeia do you have any strong reads? I’m getting a little paranoid of the way you’re flitting around, pointing out logical inconsistencies and explaining people’s posts to each other… and meanwhile avoiding getting in fights with anyone except skitter who tried to lead a lim on you to start the day. Can you put down some hot takes that you stand by?

xix. I feel the same as std in everything he says below, and think the “not picky” point is esp good:

i dunno about nk15 but i'm feeling a little better about them now that they're not tunneled but i still don't know how i feel. i think they're wrong about ari and datisi and it's hard to reconcile that feeling but i've liked recent posting so i'm not so sure they're scum

[snip]

i don't know that [menalque] was picky other than not me, see below

If I need to change because we don’t have numbers tell me literally right now who I need to change it to

I’m not voting StD tho

as for the rest like maybe i can't argue how he'd behave i don't really know him but they're not super impactful arguments to me. i feel like some of it is nai he's been busy like have you asked yourself if scum!menalque just doesn't have enough thread presence here because he's been busy? [snip]

xx. Join me in enjoying this three post trajectory:

I am not certain but I'm heading in the direction where I think that this may be the best play

need to do due diligence on other slots too, but

I think that StD redding essentially solves the game?

[snip]
From your perspective, that means one scum in Skitter30/Datisi/Aristeia/irrelephant.
Who is it?

Fucked if I know

pedit: finally someone caught us, it's been exhausting putting up this front for so long

[Save The Dragons]

I've not looked into these interactions in detail, but that's definitely the scumteam. These interactions are extremely partner-y.

I've not looked into these interactions in detail

definitely

uh

okay

[Save The Dragons]

HEAL: save the dragons
HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: skitter30
HEAL: irrelephant11

i'm just vibing with irrelephant here, content seems very stream of conciousnessy in a way that scum would avoid for fear of revealing too much.

just a couple more for your collection

where i first tr irrelephant in post 121. Post 121.

and another reason i tr irrelephant

[Aristeia]

maybe its just mena/nk15 and this game isnt that hard

[Aristeia]

its such an incredible leap to think std is the scummiest out of the 4 left out

i should probably actually read mena's case huh.

[Irrelephant11]

HEAL: save the dragons
HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: skitter30
HEAL: irrelephant11

i'm just vibing with irrelephant here, content seems very stream of conciousnessy in a way that scum would avoid for fear of revealing too much.

just a couple more for your collection

where i first tr irrelephant in post 121. Post 121.

and another reason i tr irrelephant

Yeah he left out multiple posts, not sure there's much reason to uhhhhhh argue about that

[Irrelephant11]

Aristeia I forgot to say: you're scum for using the light theme of MS. Dark theme only for us townies

[Aristeia]

dark theme is so ugly tho

[fireisredsir]

nk do you wanna talk about how during coalition forming you were dead set on one team and nothing in the world would make you reassess but then now you've proposed like uh... 5 different teams now or something? and keep jumping to a new one and disregarding whatever the previous one that you were convinced of was?

[Irrelephant11]

I don't make the rules aristeia I just enforce them. Switch to dark theme or I WILL tunnel you

[fireisredsir]

Aristeia I forgot to say: you're scum for using the light theme of MS. Dark theme only for us townies

i use sepia what does that make me

[Irrelephant11]

anyway I was gonna scumcase mena/nk15 but they did it themselves, lmk tomorrow if you need me to write one out, too

pedit: 3rd party

[Irrelephant11]

which fits with your play tbh

[Irrelephant11]

Not voting menalque yet because I think it could hammer w/o me online and I don't want skitter/datisi/anyone to feel like the day ended before they were ready, feels rude. But it's there in spirit

[Save The Dragons]

it's all about tiger theme

[Aristeia]

tiger theme is gross

[Save The Dragons]

tiger theme is amazing i just changed it to tiger theme and i'm living holy crap this hurts my eyes but i'm living for it

[Irrelephant11]

I feel like I promised it.

menalque case ig

Just like... reread EOD1. menalque loses all sense of reads when he has a chance into the coalition. NK15 loses all sense of reads when he has a chance to hammer a coalition with mena. Three of us tried really hard to get a coalition w/o menalque and it failed, but probably would have succeeded if scum had wanted it. menalque and nk15 are just haphazardly trying to find anyone limmable today. It's a wrap (I hope and pray)

[Irrelephant11]

tiger theme is amazing i just changed it to tiger theme and i'm living holy crap this hurts my eyes but i'm living for it

[fireisredsir]

yea no mena/nk case necessary, id be down to vote there as well

[Save The Dragons]

proof i'm using tiger theme



orange is my favorite color so it's orange but this is like ORANGE and i'm not sure anyone even someone who loves orange like me can handle just how orange this is

ok i'll stop talking about themes and get my head back into the game