Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[skitter30]

I feel like I promised it.

menalque case ig

Just like... reread EOD1. menalque loses all sense of reads when he has a chance into the coalition. NK15 loses all sense of reads when he has a chance to hammer a coalition with mena. Three of us tried really hard to get a coalition w/o menalque and it failed, but probably would have succeeded if scum had wanted it. menalque and nk15 are just haphazardly trying to find anyone limmable today. It's a wrap (I hope and pray)

this isn't a mena scumcase, this is you announcing that you think the team is exactly mena/nk15 which i'm just ... dubious of
like hwy is mena scum independant of nk15?

[skitter30]

I did not but I’m about to go to sleep

Essentially I revisited fire and once I was happy with fire town I thought ari was much more likely to be as well

ok did any of that thought process end up in thread?

[skitter30]

if the gamestate is skitt/dats r t-t then like;

I don't like mena basically being awol for so long this phase[yes he said he was vla weekend but like its monday night in spain atp]

i find scum often have trouble interjecting into t v t game states because they dont want to fuck up the conflict or give themselves away - so if dats/skitter is t-t i can see mena being uncomfortable wading into it.

whereas irrelephant is just full on going in with the t-t -> mena push?

i mean maybe he is just exceptionally gifted scum who sees the t/t conflict being resolved eventually and needs to get a jump on mena but that would be some foresight.

i guess it could just be that he thinks flipping mena and preserving the schism between dats/skitter is worth it for f7 but theres no gurantee the embers get rekindled or that skitter/dats dont unite vs him for getting their mutual townread mena yeeted d1

i mean i would argue that irrel also didn't much wrt the t/t push in this universe and just didn't interact with it to push mena
i'm nto sure i see the difference between the two of them

[skitter30]

I like how present Dats is and his willingness to engage with people[it feels very different from how he played Spring Fling as mafia] and he just feels so mindmeldy with me at times like when he recalled Mena saying we do not guillotine inside the coalition etc from that game years ago.

and like maybe I'm just pocketed but it's hard for me to see scum!him? [Like maybe you can say that your coalition of 4 + me would've won and he saw that coming and he decided to preempt you by convincing me to back his coalition instead but like it's not exactly something town him wouldn't do?]

like dats i read this and just do not Gel with this at all
like i wish i can say somethinig better here than that but this doesn't really resonate with me

like for irrelephant i just think it's much cleaner and easier line for him to play into the dats/skitter conflict and maybe chain your elims rather than being like "no we r going to kill mena" who you both townread.

It's a gamble yea but like most of the time scum don't burn towncred if they don't need to and if the elim is falling inside dats/skitter he doesn't really need to?

for irrel tho:
- i don't think he could with his trajectory from yesterday? wasn't he strongly townreading both of us? being able to chain it seems very unlikely to me
- it's a lot cleaner to go onto the person he's already scumreading and who looks like a viable wagon, i don't think he burns a lot of towncred by going after mena
- i don't think me/dats were inevitable

i don't think this is a good reason to townread him at all

[skitter30]

like i don't even know why i townread irrel to begin with at this point tbh
i don't think his play this phase has been very townie at all either
admittedly not super scummy
but i don't see something that i should be massively townreading

[Aristeia]

skitter I dunno if I'm being unfair but like shouldn't you be trying to convince Mena that STD is town since he's one of your top townreads and trying to get them to not murder each other today?

cuz like time is running out and rereading your iso since mena dropped his case on STD it doesn't feel like you're really trying to get him on the same page as you with regards to STD and you're not really pushing an alternative here?

[Irrelephant11]

skitter stop reading mena based on his meta for sec

Are any of these things towny to you:
- having the scummiest player in the pl lolhammer you into the failed coalition
- voting yourself into a failed coalition that goes against your previously stated reads
- posting less than anyone else in the coalition by a long shot (in coalition setups especially, postcount has p much always been a useful metric, even if it's not always bottom-2-equals-scum. Because scum isn't fun to play in this setup)
- Having very few townreads all game long in a game about townreads
- Hopping into day 2 tunneling the third-scummiest player outside the coalition

I have more points but tbh I thought his entrance to this game day was so laughably scummy I didn't need to write it all out. I will today, not least because I'm finding your refusal to do mena pretty partner-y (my case does not rely on NK15 as partner like you keep saying, btw, it's just one point among many that they make quite a bit of sense as a team)

[Irrelephant11]

- Hopping into day 2 tunneling the third-scummiest player outside the coalition

this being the charitable, mena POV, where I could see him or some players reasonably TRing fire more than std (I think fire is almost definitely town)

[Irrelephant11]

i mean i would argue that irrel also didn't much wrt the t/t push in this universe and just didn't interact with it to push mena
i'm nto sure i see the difference between the two of them

A pretty big difference is I went "well these 3/4 really seem like town, therefore the fourth is scum, which I was already thinking"
mena went "I have no idea which of these 4 could be town, not really going to try to sort them, anyway std is scum, which I was already thinking"

Like my tunnel on mena (the scummiest in the coalition fmpov) is totally different than mena's tunnel on std (a random person outside the coalition, after totally refusing to sort within it)

[Ydrasse]

VOTECOUNT 2.2

[2] Menalque:

Save the Dragons, Malakittens

[1] Irrelephant11:

Not Known 15

[1]Save the Dragons:

Menalque

[1] Irrelephant:

fireisredsir

[4] Not Voting:

skitter30, Datisi, Aristeia, Irrelephant11

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate!

The deadline is in (expired on 2022-05-20 18:52:45).

MOD NOTES

- if i made mistakes let me know i’m doing this from mobile. also yes i am reusing the flavor temporarily. sue me!!!

- clicky here for joined mod iso.

[skitter30]

skitter I dunno if I'm being unfair but like shouldn't you be trying to convince Mena that STD is town since he's one of your top townreads and trying to get them to not murder each other today?

cuz like time is running out and rereading your iso since mena dropped his case on STD it doesn't feel like you're really trying to get him on the same page as you with regards to STD and you're not really pushing an alternative here?

I mean i guess i was a little more concerned with my read on mena since that looks to be more imminently going to a flip

I also dont have a great alternative, as i said last night. I'm just p convinced that this is wrong. What did u think abt my points r.e. irrel

[Irrelephant11]

Spoiler: skitter how do you feel about this progression

I am not certain but I'm heading in the direction where I think that this may be the best play

need to do due diligence on other slots too, but I think that StD redding essentially solves the game?

I am not certain but I'm heading in the direction where I think that this may be the best play

need to do due diligence on other slots too, but I think that StD redding essentially solves the game?

If STD is scum, then me/mala/fire are all confirmed town.
From your perspective, that means one scum in Skitter30/Datisi/Aristeia/irrelephant.
Who is it?

Fucked if I know

There’s a reason I want to do StD first

skitter why is it towny for mena to think std (your strongest townread from d1) is scum over both mala and nk15

[Aristeia]

I guess the difference for me was that Irrel was posting and saying hey I think skitt/ari/dats are all town; let's lim mena, whereas Mena wasn't atp in the game.

like if he's mafia doesn't that just cause him to get limmed the next day after mena flips town?

[Irrelephant11]

skitter why don't you want to vote scum

[skitter30]

skitter stop reading mena based on his meta for sec

Are any of these things towny to you:
- having the scummiest player in the pl lolhammer you into the failed coalition
- voting yourself into a failed coalition that goes against your previously stated reads
- posting less than anyone else in the coalition by a long shot (in coalition setups especially, postcount has p much always been a useful metric, even if it's not always bottom-2-equals-scum. Because scum isn't fun to play in this setup)
- Having very few townreads all game long in a game about townreads
- Hopping into day 2 tunneling the third-scummiest player outside the coalition

I have more points but tbh I thought his entrance to this game day was so laughably scummy I didn't need to write it all out. I will today, not least because I'm finding your refusal to do mena pretty partner-y (my case does not rely on NK15 as partner like you keep saying, btw, it's just one point among many that they make quite a bit of sense as a team)

I dont know how to divorce the meta tho >.>
Thats part od my problem

I'll admit that the first two (particularly the top one) have some merit
But i'm not sure the third point is ai at all given how busy he is irl
He had a bunch of townreads this game
And for the fifth point - it's ????? And not especially town-motivated, but i'm still having a hard time seeing him doing it as scum

Also wrt your point abt nk15 being partnered with him: a couple of times now, when i've asked you why you scumread him, it basically boiled down to being partnered with nk15 1431 + surrounding convo, the main point of 1546, titled 'menalque case i guess' is that he makes senss as scum *when partnered with nk15*. Your point that scum pushed him in the coalition, which seems to be a large part od your scumread on him, is that nk15 voted him in. You're not casting any doubt on the earlier voters od that coaliton. Even now your first point in the list above is only valid if he's partnered with nk15.

Like i dont thinj that its unreasonable at all for me to be understanding your mena case really as a: i believe the scumteam is exactly mena/nk15 and here's why case

[skitter30]

Spoiler: skitter how do you feel about this progression

I am not certain but I'm heading in the direction where I think that this may be the best play

need to do due diligence on other slots too, but I think that StD redding essentially solves the game?

I am not certain but I'm heading in the direction where I think that this may be the best play

need to do due diligence on other slots too, but I think that StD redding essentially solves the game?

If STD is scum, then me/mala/fire are all confirmed town.
From your perspective, that means one scum in Skitter30/Datisi/Aristeia/irrelephant.
Who is it?

Fucked if I know

There’s a reason I want to do StD first

skitter why is it towny for mena to think std (your strongest townread from d1) is scum over both mala and nk15

I dont know but it follows his trajectory from day1 and it seems nonsensical to me for him to do this as scum

[skitter30]

Like you were saying earlier we need to weigh actions on the spectrum of 'does it make more sense for town or scum to do this'

You've successfully shown that this is bizarre as town, but i'm saying that its equally bizarre as scum (and you havent explained why this is inherently *scummy* of him, just not townie) so its hard for me to view this as damning

[skitter30]

I guess the difference for me was that Irrel was posting and saying hey I think skitt/ari/dats are all town; let's lim mena, whereas Mena wasn't atp in the game.

like if he's mafia doesn't that just cause him to get limmed the next day after mena flips town?

I mean both were basically on weekend vla and i dont think that irrel's incidental posting during the me/dats thing on sunday really is significant in the way you're describing

And i mean yeah idk what the next steps are for scum-irrel but it matches his current trajectory + the votes are there (vs trying to flip rn to me/dats/you when he's strongly townreading both) with mena gone he at least has the excuse of going tomorrow: whoops i was wrong i need to reevaluate the remainder !!!! Which is not something he can do as easily today imo

[skitter30]

Like @ari can you point to irrel posts from sunday that you think embody the behavior from irrel that you're describing?

[Irrelephant11]

I do think NK15 is his partner, I'm at like 50% confidence that's the scumteam. 50% confidence the scumteam is anything else. But mena regardless of if he's scum with you (didn't want him in the coalition because it makes today harder), datisi (got his way EOD1 to get him in), or malakittens (mena got lucky and nk15 is just an anti-town townie), it doesn't change the fact that mena is very much the scummiest in the coalition, his actions make no sense for town to be doing, he's playing bizarrely only because I and StD have given him no room to maneuver, and he's not even trying to sort within the coalition. So if nk15/mena isn't the team it's still him. Like FINE I'll MAKE THE FULL CASE in a few hours it just feels so blatantly obvious that the fact that you have him anywhere higher than [mm not sure] is so. weird to me

[skitter30]

skitter why don't you want to vote scum

I mean if this is you asking me to vote mena:
- i made it significantly clear that i townread him
- this is very manipulative and is casting me in the 'wrong' for not voting someone that we dont know is scum rn

[skitter30]

VOTE: irrel

[Irrelephant11]

and you havent explained why this is inherently *scummy* of him, just not townie

bleh I think menalque's entrance does feel towny actually but his actual *actions* (to try to lim outside the coalition) are pretty scummy with obvious scum motivation (e.g. the towny townies in the coalition are too towny to win against in a 1v1, both scum might be in the coalition, etc)

If the other scum is in the coalition, limming outside of it has obvious scum benefit
If the other scum is outside the coalition, limming std is the only real direction mena can go that has any town momentum (see: the PL's inability to townread std day 1)
Either way, playing bizarre has scum benefit by being WIFOM-y. Playing bizarre isn't something townies do unless they're, like, hiding a PR

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: irrel

how about we flip mena and then you can flip me if it's green. deal?

[Irrelephant11]

skitter why don't you want to vote scum

I mean if this is you asking me to vote mena:
- i made it significantly clear that i townread him
- this is very manipulative and is casting me in the 'wrong' for not voting someone that we dont know is scum rn

I made it significantly clear that I scumread him and you should be too
It only casts you in a bad light if he flips red?? There's 0 worlds where I pivot to limming you today