Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Irrelephant11]

I don't want skitter to be scum, @aristeia @std @fire please determine if this is tvt or tvs so I can proceed accordingly

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: menalque

This is his third vote based on the last VC. No need to keep my vote there in spirit when there's so much empty room on the wagon

[Aristeia]

@Skitter

Day 2 has strengthened my townread on Aristeia and my scumread on mena
Datisi and skitter are each, if scum, knocking it out of the park.

We are flipping Aristeia. If Ari is town, we are flipping skitter. If Ari is scum, we flip Datisi. Does anyone disagree?

Yes I absolutely disagree

i dont have enough from the two that aren't talking rn

Trust me I’ll have lots to say when not on v/la


Menalque has not posted in day 2. His entire ISO reads fake to me and skitter has him as locktown for not trying very hard. STD is semi-conftown and being entirely ignored! I’ve skimmed everything after 1333 because Datisi and skitter are pushing skitter for being inconsistent and thoughtless (does that sound like her scum game?) and skitter is pushing Datisi. Fire at one point suggested Menalque is my last-minute attempt to find a mislim inside the coalition which… lol I was trying to push Menalque out of the coalition att. I feel like everyone has lost their minds and refuses to even consider Occam’s razor: low-poster is scum. Like - at least consider it? I’ll write the same thing but in 900-word paragraphs if that’s the only way to get through to you people

EBWOP: “Skitter is pushing Datisi for lame reasons too imo”.

Occam’s razor: low-poster is scum.

so the scumteam is nk/mala and ydrasse is trolling us?

i'm like, i will consider scum!mena. but i need a bit more to actually convince me he's viable to be scum considering i feel like he has hit multiple towntells while he's been here...

Obviously not
but I do think the most likely team is [lowest poster in the coalition] + [lowest poster outside the coalition] AKA mena/nk15

I think the strongest point in town!std’s and scum!mena’s favor(s) is the competing wagons. The majority wagon flipped red, and I do currently think that’s a lot of scum points towards the 3 who were both in the coalition and voting for it. But then I think datisi and aristeia are town. So: Menalque. This is not my entire case, it’s just a major point nobody has brought up, full case will come tomorrow (or you know, read StD’s posts/interact with him like he might be seeing something you’re not, instead of waiting for me). @skitter and @datisi, you’ve both acknowledged at least one weird thing about menalque’s ISO recently iirc. Nobody is saying you have to lim him, just to give him more scrutiny than “until someone PROVES BEYOND A SHADOW OF A DOUBT I WILL NEVER VOTE THERE”

Oh also the only people pushing menalque this game day are
A. outside the coalition
B. Me (and I know I’m not scum)
Which makes the idea that he’s low-hanging fruit not ring true for me. YMMV

Tbh skitter suggesting menalque is the one place she’d basically never vote is the scummiest thing she’s done this game. I get a townread on menalque but also… is it TMI? Partners, which is why she wanted StD in instead? This is why skitter is 5% less town than datisi/aristeia. That said I don’t actually think skitter is scum at all, really.


This is what datisi/aristeia/skitter feel like imo.

[Aristeia]

I don't want skitter to be scum, @aristeia @std @fire please determine if this is tvt or tvs so I can proceed accordingly

why would scum!skitter defend scum!mena in this game state?

[Irrelephant11]

hmmm good point
town!skitter can't see the case and defends weird-townie from Irrelephant who's spearheading a mislim
scum!skitter knows if her partner goes down she can't get three mislims before it turns on her, as someone who's been named as a potential partner?

Yeah I guess the first is a little more likely? Let me write it out:
Scum!skitter who turns around on mena chains mena > NK15 > mala > datisi/aristeia
Whereas defending mena, she goes Irrelephant > mena > NK15 > mala
Well wait now that I've written out I feel like the second does sound like a better route for scum her?

[Irrelephant11]

skitter do you have any recent solo scumgames? I only see hydra scumgames which might be useful but isn't my preference rn

[skitter30]

and you havent explained why this is inherently *scummy* of him, just not townie

bleh I think menalque's entrance does feel towny actually but his actual *actions* (to try to lim outside the coalition) are pretty scummy with obvious scum motivation (e.g. the towny townies in the coalition are too towny to win against in a 1v1, both scum might be in the coalition, etc)

If the other scum is in the coalition, limming outside of it has obvious scum benefit
If the other scum is outside the coalition, limming std is the only real direction mena can go that has any town momentum (see: the PL's inability to townread std day 1)
Either way, playing bizarre has scum benefit by being WIFOM-y. Playing bizarre isn't something townies do unless they're, like, hiding a PR

I do think NK15 is his partner, I'm at like 50% confidence that's the scumteam. 50% confidence the scumteam is anything else. But mena regardless of if he's scum with you (didn't want him in the coalition because it makes today harder), datisi (got his way EOD1 to get him in), or malakittens (mena got lucky and nk15 is just an anti-town townie), it doesn't change the fact that mena is very much the scummiest in the coalition, his actions make no sense for town to be doing, he's playing bizarrely only because I and StD have given him no room to maneuver, and he's not even trying to sort within the coalition. So if nk15/mena isn't the team it's still him. Like FINE I'll MAKE THE FULL CASE in a few hours it just feels so blatantly obvious that the fact that you have him anywhere higher than [mm not sure] is so. weird to me

Ok again one of the Big points that you're pointing to as being damning is nk15 voting him into the coalition which is only damning if he's partners with nk15
Maybe i'm just way overthinking this and am stubborn but you're kinda simultaneously trying to play up that reason for mena being scum and then trying to talk down its significance when i point out your a large part of the scumread is based on a precise teamread with no flips yet

Also again think he's the scummiest in the coalitioj, but i can understand why people think hes the keast towniest: but that doesnt make him scum. Misflips literally happen because people think townies arent being townie. It isnt inherently a scum indicator. Nor is his actions not making sense coming from town

And if nk15 isnt the partner, your point abt: it looks like scum pushed to get mena into the coalition
Goes away

[skitter30]

and you havent explained why this is inherently *scummy* of him, just not townie

bleh I think menalque's entrance does feel towny actually but his actual *actions* (to try to lim outside the coalition) are pretty scummy with obvious scum motivation (e.g. the towny townies in the coalition are too towny to win against in a 1v1, both scum might be in the coalition, etc)

If the other scum is in the coalition, limming outside of it has obvious scum benefit
If the other scum is outside the coalition, limming std is the only real direction mena can go that has any town momentum (see: the PL's inability to townread std day 1)
Either way, playing bizarre has scum benefit by being WIFOM-y. Playing bizarre isn't something townies do unless they're, like, hiding a PR

Ok but he knows as scum that it'll be *immensely* scummy for him if he flips town outside of the coalition
If he's scum eith nk15 like you're positing: you think that scumteam wins elo with mena pushing town-std today? Like what's the gameplan for winning the game here? Like maybe he benefits in the short term tofay because of that, but i'm sure he knoes this wont lead him to winning the game overall: he actually said it himself

So like ... why is he tanking his chances kf winning in nk15/mena ?

[skitter30]

VOTE: irrel

:roll:
how about we flip mena and then you can flip me if it's green. deal?

No, and this is also manipulative

[skitter30]

skitter why don't you want to vote scum

I mean if this is you asking me to vote mena:
- i made it significantly clear that i townread him
- this is very manipulative and is casting me in the 'wrong' for not voting someone that we dont know is scum rn

I made it significantly clear that I scumread him and you should be too
It only casts you in a bad light if he flips red?? There's 0 worlds where I pivot to limming you today

I dont think i should be scumreading him
The tone of that post was manipulative: trying to get me to vote him with you while i'm implying you're right and i'm wrong, while also vaguely threatening in the sense that i'll look bad if i dont but only *in the universe that you're right and i'm wrong* nd we dont know that we're living in that universe now

[Irrelephant11]

And if nk15 isnt the partner, your point abt: it looks like scum pushed to get mena into the coalition

I hear you. You're right that this is a point I've emphasized, and that it could be invalid if they're not the team (though don't you suspect NK15 of being an outside-the-coalition goon too?). I have a wide variety of reasons to scumread menalque, though, and just have thought the case was becoming so obvious I could just point out a few things that stick out to me, like the point about him/nk15 being a very likely team. When I write my full scumcase in a few hours I'll write it as if NK15 doesn't exist, so you and I both can see if the case still holds up

[skitter30]

@ari thanks:
I dont rhink those are *substantial* posts given what was going on at the time - they were kinda popping in at the sides

And again given mena and irrel's respective townreads/trajectories going into this part of the day, i dont think the difference you're making holds merit

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: irrel

how about we flip mena and then you can flip me if it's green. deal?

No, and this is also manipulative

No it's not. How is it manipulative? It's me honoring what you think is happening: me trying to make you look scummy by the way you're treating mena's slot. But the idea that I'm trying to make you look scummy depends on the idea that menalque flips red. Otherwise, if he flips green, I'm just asking a dumb question that makes me look scummy and you look towny. So your vote on me only makes sense in a world where mena has already flipped red. So I'm suggesting we take that path together.

[Irrelephant11]

skitter me saying "why don't you want to vote scum" isn't me trying to pivot to you, and if mena flips green I'm the one that looks bad.
I said it because I'm dumbfounded that you don't want to vote menalque after the way he's played this game day

@fire? @std? Am I missing something here? Is skitter just a stubborn towny?

[skitter30]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=88987
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89172
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=87782
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=88043
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=87040
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=86336

I think (?) that these are the more recent ones but i believe there's one or two recent ones i might be missing

Some of these are more emblematic of my scumgame than others for various reasons, but i just went chronologically backwards pulling the ones i saw first

I can talk more abt them + answer your most recent posts a little later, i have to do some work now

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: irrel

how about we flip mena and then you can flip me if it's green. deal?

No, and this is also manipulative

No it's not. How is it manipulative? It's me honoring what you think is happening: me trying to make you look scummy by the way you're treating mena's slot. But the idea that I'm trying to make you look scummy depends on the idea that menalque flips red. Otherwise, if he flips green, I'm just asking a dumb question that makes me look scummy and you look towny. So your vote on me only makes sense in a world where mena has already flipped. So I'm suggesting we take that path together.

EBWOP

[Aristeia]

hmmm good point
town!skitter can't see the case and defends weird-townie from Irrelephant who's spearheading a mislim
scum!skitter knows if her partner goes down she can't get three mislims before it turns on her, as someone who's been named as a potential partner?

Yeah I guess the first is a little more likely? Let me write it out:
Scum!skitter who turns around on mena chains mena > NK15 > mala > datisi/aristeia
Whereas defending mena, she goes Irrelephant > mena > NK15 > mala
Well wait now that I've written out I feel like the second does sound like a better route for scum her?

I think she can get mala/nk killed fairly easily if she turns on mena and that gets her to elo. it makes much more sense than defending him here.

[Aristeia]

like if she yeets town!you here - I think mena/her just get chain flipped on d2/3? so it doesnt seem like a very good plan for scum!her to defend scum!mena

[Irrelephant11]

And again given mena and irrel's respective townreads/trajectories going into this part of the day, i dont think the difference you're making holds merit

why didn't I re-evaluate one of my top scumreads when he made it into the failed coalition? The answer is in the question.
why didn't menalque re-evaluate one of his top scumreads when he didn't make it into the failed coalition?

[Aristeia]

Irrel how sure are you that Mena is scum? cuz if you/him are T/T and one of skitter/datisi is WKing mena we are going to lose at the current trajectory.

I am not sure you've actually thought this out for very long.

[Irrelephant11]

So like ... why is he tanking his chances kf winning in nk15/mena ?

what a bizarre question. He gets limmed today or does something outside the box so that he doesn't get limmed today. the second almost always better, elo plans or not
mena is also repeatedly asking that: "how does this line up with me having a plan for elo?"
I don't know, how am I supposed to know the plans for elo? I'm sure most mafia chats don't include planning to get tunneled by Irrelephant, but here we are and something has to happen next

[Irrelephant11]

Irrel how sure are you that Mena is scum? cuz if you/him are T/T and one of skitter/datisi is WKing mena we are going to lose at the current trajectory.

I am not sure you've actually thought this out for very long.

I've thought it through more than skitter thinks but less than if I quit my job and only played mafia

Realistically I'd say I'm at like 80:20 mena:skitter/datisi/aristeia

[Irrelephant11]

like if she yeets town!you here - I think mena/her just get chain flipped on d2/3? so it doesnt seem like a very good plan for scum!her to defend scum!mena

I think there's more room than you suggest for scum!skitter to WIFOM post-mena-flip that she would not defend scum!mena so hard, using reasoning similar to what you're saying right now

But I see your point. skitter/mena is not jumping to the top of my scumteam list yet

[Irrelephant11]

I think any scumteam where both are in the coalition can count on nk15 being a mislim at some point, though, so if a skitter/mena team can get any two mislims before one of them goes down, that's a pretty good elo for them

[Irrelephant11]

Irrel how sure are you that Mena is scum? cuz if you/him are T/T and one of skitter/datisi is WKing mena we are going to lose at the current trajectory.

I am not sure you've actually thought this out for very long.

who do you think is scum in the coalition