Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Irrelephant11]

Aristeia do you have any strong reads? I’m getting a little paranoid of the way you’re flitting around, pointing out logical inconsistencies and explaining people’s posts to each other… and meanwhile avoiding getting in fights with anyone except skitter who tried to lead a lim on you to start the day. Can you put down some hot takes that you stand by?

[Aristeia]

probably Datisi/Skitter both being town.

I am conflicted about you/Mena

[fireisredsir]

skitter me saying "why don't you want to vote scum" isn't me trying to pivot to you, and if mena flips green I'm the one that looks bad.
I said it because I'm dumbfounded that you don't want to vote menalque after the way he's played this game day

@fire? @std? Am I missing something here? Is skitter just a stubborn towny?

you saying that v much seemed manipulative and i prob would have voted you at that point too

[Irrelephant11]

I used to feel pretty uppity about getting mislimmed but if mena does flip green I would probably not even mind going next because I'll have nothing left to offer but paranoia and sadness

this is mostly a joke but I guess it's also me reflecting on the fact that I've really gone all in on menalque and I've kinda screwed myself and potentially all of town's ability to win if it flips green

[Irrelephant11]

skitter me saying "why don't you want to vote scum" isn't me trying to pivot to you, and if mena flips green I'm the one that looks bad.
I said it because I'm dumbfounded that you don't want to vote menalque after the way he's played this game day

@fire? @std? Am I missing something here? Is skitter just a stubborn towny?

you saying that v much seemed manipulative and i prob would have voted you at that point too

Alright fine, I'm definitely getting too heated. taking a break unless anyone has questions for me before I go

[fireisredsir]

i also don't really get the sense of urgency cause assuming mena has some time to post today i think it will be useful to see what he posts

[Aristeia]

like you seem to be saying that

Mena + NK15/Mala is your solve.

and Mena is scum by POE cuz skitt/dats/me are town

but everyone outside the coalition is ok with voting off Mena

and everyone inside the coalition is having cold feet with voting off Mena

and I think that doesn't really compute with your worldview in some ways?

Like does either Mala/Nk15 really get to endgame after Mena!scum goes down today? Niether of them are out-towning STD/Fire and they have to survive 3 lims?

I do recognize that like maybe they just got dealt these cards and this is the only way they can really play them cuz saying no doesn't really work out for them but I feel icky about it.

[skitter30]

@irrel i recognize that it wasnt you trying to pivot to me today
But you were trying to get me to do something i didn't want to (i.e. manipulate me to do something), backed with a lowkey threat that i was in the wrong for not voting mena (with the implication that i would look bad if he flipped green and i wasnt voting him)

[Irrelephant11]

I don't feel urgency, if that's @ me. I just want to lay on all the pressure on mena (and then also put a bunch on skitter). No rush from me yet

[Menalque]

sup

[Aristeia]

Mena can you talk to me about why you think Mala is town this game since KTANE ended and she basically awoled all of that game too

[Menalque]

if he doesn't think this will work doesn't it just make this performative?

I was thinking it probably wouldn't fly but figured it might if I could get skitt and datisi on board -- either way, it's hopefully useful after I get flipped if I do go down today

I'd kinda forgotten that skitt was TRing StD

Also given that we have around 3 days left and there’s no PRs and I’ve very clearly not been able to play, maybe we slow the fuck up on ending day before I get testy

Especially when if I get my teeth into things I can do things like what I did in ktane, which if I do here and anyone doesn’t see I’m town, they’re essentially scumclaiming

I don't think I've been trying to rush the day at all.

You should know that I want you to push someone inside the coalition because pushing outside is kind of a non starter?

We didn't put all the LHFs outside to begin pushing them now coalition has failed.

the "rush the day" comment was directed at Relly

and we put them outside because they were non-townie, not because they were LHF -- not sure I get the relevance of the point here on if we should lim there or not, or are you saying it's harder to find the scum among the scummy players than to find the real town amongst the towny ones?

[skitter30]

[quote="In post 1631,

And again given mena and irrel's respective townreads/trajectories going into this part of the day, i dont think the difference you're making holds merit

why didn't I re-evaluate one of my top scumreads when he made it into the failed coalition? The answer is in the question.
why didn't menalque re-evaluate one of his top scumreads when he didn't make it into the failed coalition? :nerd:

That wasnt really my point. Ari is saying you're townier than mena by comparison in that you got involved in the me/dats thing and mena didnt; she think scum would avoid it

I'm saying that with your respective reads, you wouldnt have flipped on either of me/dats just then

[skitter30]

So like ... why is he tanking his chances kf winning in nk15/mena ?

what a bizarre question. He gets limmed today or does something outside the box so that he doesn't get limmed today. the second almost always better, elo plans or not
mena is also repeatedly asking that: "how does this line up with me having a plan for elo?"
I don't know, how am I supposed to know the plans for elo? I'm sure most mafia chats don't include planning to get tunneled by Irrelephant, but here we are and something has to happen next

I dont think he has a path to victory in the nk15/him universe flipping std today

[Menalque]

Mena can you talk to me about why you think Mala is town this game since KTANE ended and she basically awoled all of that game too

I don't think I've ever said that mala is town based on what she's done

to the extent I think she is, it's an extrapolation from StD being scum rather than based on her own play

[Aristeia]

the "rush the day" comment was directed at Relly

and we put them outside because they were non-townie, not because they were LHF -- not sure I get the relevance of the point here on if we should lim there or not, or are you saying it's harder to find the scum among the scummy players than to find the real town amongst the towny ones?

I'm uncomfortable liming outside coalition before we find at least one scum inside coalition unless the degree of certainty is extremely high and if it ever is that high then you can treat the slot as preflipped anyway?

[skitter30]

Mena i feel p strongly that std is town and i dont think i'll be voting him today

[Menalque]

Ari is saying you're townier than mena by comparison in that you got involved in the me/dats thing and mena didnt

this was over the weekend?

[Aristeia]

Mena can you talk to me about why you think Mala is town this game since KTANE ended and she basically awoled all of that game too

I don't think I've ever said that mala is town based on what she's done

to the extent I think she is, it's an extrapolation from StD being scum rather than based on her own play

yes I know

but for you to think STD is lock scum it would require you to also believe Mala is town and I'm looking at her iso today and I have trouble putting her there.



it's just ??? and I don't see how from your POV you get there?

[Menalque]

Mena i feel p strongly that std is town and i dont think i'll be voting him today

can you tell me why

I'm going to try to engage (*shudders*) with the monstrosity of a wall of text he posted yesterday, but I wasn't seeing it based on the final paragraphs that I did read

[Aristeia]

like you just played a game with scum!her [KTane] where she was extremely lurky as scum and I dunno how you see her just voteparking you with not much posting and basically afk and think "this is a town player"

[Irrelephant11]

I inserted numbers:

like you seem to be saying that

[1] Mena + NK15/Mala is your solve.

and [2] Mena is scum by POE cuz skitt/dats/me are town

but [3] everyone outside the coalition is ok with voting off Mena

and [4] everyone inside the coalition is having cold feet with voting off Mena

and [5] I think that doesn't really compute with your worldview in some ways?

Like does either Mala/Nk15 really get to endgame after Mena!scum goes down today? Niether of them are out-towning STD/Fire and they have to survive 3 lims? [6]

I do recognize that like maybe they just got dealt these cards and this is the only way they can really play them cuz saying no doesn't really work out for them but I feel icky about it. [7]

[1] My solve is rn mena, then lim nk15 if red, then re-evaluate if nk15 flips green atp
[2] This is one of many reasons. Std has reasons I agree with, and I think mena's play is objectively scummy today regardless of PoE. I also think his day 1 was scummy (I even said as much when trying to get my preferred coalition)
[3] 0-1 of them are scum, so this should be a reason to like the wagon btw
[4] makes sense given that's how he got into the coalition
[5] You're right that this all doesn't totally jive with my preferred partners for mena, but it does suggest his partner is in the coalition or playing poorly. I think Nk15 or skitter or datisi fits, as I've said many times. I should maybe not be considering mala, I guess
[6] If mena/nk15 is the team I do not see any winning path. I like to think this is because I and other townies have cut them all off, not because they're town. I recognize this is a read from ego, but I still think it's possible to see from your perspective.
[7] right yes, I think scum can still be scum when it's hard to see how they could win

[Menalque]

with no intentional offence to mala, I have no idea what to expect from her and that she's done fuck all today doesn't really tell me anything about whether she's scum who's avoiding everything, or town who is just not helpful

or in other words: yes, she's playing similarly to her scumgame from Ktane, but idk if she just plays like that all the time

what she hasn't done is try to give fake reasons for reads or to act like she's town -- that could just be bc she's scum and lazy, but I think StD has been more actively incriminating himself by trying to

look

town and only one of them can be scum

that make sense?

[Irrelephant11]

I think my being here while mena catches up is more likely to lead to threadclogs than to sortable content so bye

[Aristeia]

ok

what do you think of irrelephant ?