Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[skitter30]

skitter doesn't use tigers!?!??!?!1?!11?!?!?

I know!!!!!!
(Will interact with real things after work!)

[Datisi]

ok, i'm reading page 65 and i get this weird feeling of... panic? from irrel's 1606, 1611, 1613. what i mean is, a good amount of these posts boil down to "things that this person did are weird and do not have obvious town motivation, therefore they come from scum" when i feel like most of experienced players don't use level-zero-logic like that in order to argue their points. or rather, they go through the thought process of "does it actually make sense for scum to do this". like, i get that it's not optimal to want to yeet outside the coalition but what does scum!mena gain with that?

ok i stopped typing the above thought bc i see skitter did argue some of the points i was thinking but the tl;dr is that i am not impressed with irrel's arguments for scum!mena here

Either way, playing bizarre has scum benefit by being WIFOM-y. Playing bizarre isn't something townies do unless they're, like, hiding a PR

what

also i think if skitter and mena were partners in this economy, i think she would've been bussing him for like 2 years now

increasingly bad as he continues to tunnel me and not acknowledge that NK15 hammering a coalition with me in it is dumb as fucking bricks for a team made up of the two of us

unironically i think nk15 would've done that in an nk15/mena team (i don't think they're the team for different reasons but uh look me in the eyes and tell me scum!nk15 wouldn't do that)

[Datisi]

my eyes are glazing over and i don't like the way the vc in 1700 is looking at me - am gonna take a break and then see how i feel about the state of the universe

@menalque pls explain how std redding solves the game (1485)

[Irrelephant11]

i get that it's not optimal to want to yeet outside the coalition but what does scum!mena gain with that?

y'all. the thing scum mena gains by tunneling std. is your post. the one I am quoting.

[Irrelephant11]

I'm writing his scumcase in a word doc but let's imagine we're scum!mena for a minute, and look at our options when we enter the thread ~48 hours(? Can't remember exactly) after D2 starts.

> try to lim datisi? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim skitter? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim aristeia? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim irrelephant? And look like one of the worst OMGUS's in a long time?

Hm. Realistically the lim will probably be inside the coalition, but if I can get the heat off me for a minute maybe one of them will look bad. Not to mention, if I can take someone (anyone) down before I go down, that's 1/3 of the way to a win. So let me think if there's anyone else limmable:

> try to lim nk15? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim malakittens? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim fireisredsir? Doesn't everyone think fire is town? Doubt this gets any traction and gains me an enemy where I currently don't have an enemy
> try to lim std? Enough people scumread him that he didn't make it into the coalition, maybe I could get votes there. At the very least it fits with what I've posted previously in a way that is town. PLUS he's coming for me so I kinda need to discredit him so people don't listen to him. Keeps an enemy where I have an enemy, nothing lost there. Yeah this is the best of 8 sucky options

[Irrelephant11]

He made no enemies of his friends, he didn't have to 1v1 someone inside the coalition before there was momentum to do so (see: his vote on me appearing only after I already had three votes), what option would have been better for scum!mena in day 2? none imo

[fireisredsir]

my eyes are glazing over and i don't like the way the vc in 1700 is looking at me

so what you're saying here is that me and ari should each vote one of irrel/mena, leaving them both at e-1 with only you left unvoted and you get to choose who to hammer?

that's what you want, right?

[Irrelephant11]

Gamestate reasons that point to menalque

Spoiler: Scum is in the coalition

---> this is obvious, but is a reason why there’s no point in thinking about scumreads outside the coalition. Therefore, I’m ruling out voting for four players until I see a red flip.

Spoiler: Scum voted for the coalition

---> I think I’m the only one who has suggested this, but I find it extremely unlikely that fire or nk15 are the only scum who voted for it and skitter is the singular scum (and, from anyone else’s POV, that I’m the singular scum) in the coalition. It’s just like a mislim in any other setup, it furthered scum’s wincon so scum almost certainly voted for it, though maybe not both.

---> For this reason, I think scum!skitter’s partner must be fireisredsir or notknown15.

---> This also suggests it’s pretty likely that menalque, datisi, or aristeia is scum

Spoiler: Some players got their preferred coalition and some didn’t

this is a little galaxy-brain of me so be warned it might kill your desire to keep reading my post.

---> This might sound like the last point, but it’s distinct. There were two viable coalitions at EOD1. Skitter, std, and I wanted std in. aristeia, datisi, fire, nk15 and menalque wanted menalque in. malakittens didn’t vote for either. This matters because I believe std to be town, and he was left out. In a world where std and menalque are both town, I think the std coalition would have hammered. In that world:
>>>>>> scum!datisi wouldn’t have objected to std so strongly because std was easier for him to mislim than menalque
>>>>>> scum!aristeia would have continued being accommodating to me/skitter and let it be std to blame us when it failed
>>>>>> scum!skitter is unlikely to get so lucky that a counterwagon appears and goes through without her vote

---> But if menalque is scum, the shift in momentum is obvious: to get menalque into the coalition.

Spoiler: Scum felt comfortable day 1 (disclaimer: weak point)

--->In the two games I’ve played of coalition, a way that scum became obvious in those games was a slight undertone of desperation when it seemed likely that town was on its way to forming a coalition without them. The only player I felt that from in this game was fireisredsir, which was a reason I thought he was scum for awhile. But I don’t think fireisredsir would feel desperate on behalf if partnered with any of players in the coalition, since it was consensus from pretty early on that 5 of me/std/aristeia/datisi/skitter/menalque would probably make the coalition. So scum never felt desperate. Well gee how is that helpful since like I just said the reads were mostly consensus all game. Well I personally think it’s a good reason to townread aristeia, who like me offered to stay out of the coalition with fire (I meant it so maybe I’m projecting but I think she meant it too). The more I think about this point… the less impactful it feels. Do with it what you will.

Leaving this because it was a reason I had until I wrote this post and I guess that’s useful info:

Spoiler: Low posters are usually scum and top posters are usually town in this setup. Proof:

- scum were #5 & #6 posters

- scum were #2 and #9 posters

- shoot another one where scum included the #2 poster, I guess maybe this isn’t a good point

- and another where scum were #1 and #4, alright nvm I concede the point. I guess it was based on my experience only, and is dumb

Menalque’s play itself

Spoiler: generally, a lack of townreads

---> As I outlined in 518, scum have to play this setup kind of awkwardly. While it’s usually useful to get some townies pocketed by handing out townreads, it’s much more dangerous during the coalition stage of this setup, because oops you made townies townread each other and now they’ve coalition’d without you.

---> Meanwhile, I think town enjoy this setup because it’s all about finding fellow townies. We quickly heal because yay found one, we quickly hurt because ~wait~uh~oh~paranoia~ and then heal someone else. This is anecdotal but I think holds up better upon reviewing multiple coalition games than my point about low posters.

--->Menalque does not do the townie-looking-for-townies thing, like at all. By 137 he had a single read (compare to 138 where datisi has a full coalition) – me as town. By 415 he has not shared any further reads, with the minor exception of 272 where he hints he might be okay with datisi being in a coalition. 416 he heals me and datisi. 455 (455????) he shares a readslist where every single read is town-but-heavily-hedging, null, or scum.

---> In 272 he suggests 5 players shouldn’t be townreads for ari yet, without explaining why any of them might be scum or helping to sort them at all. Just feels like he’s pushing townies down in general

Spoiler: questions that go nowhere

---> Relly, why are you getting paranoid of skit? (followed by explaining why I shouldn’t be townreading skitter)

---> @nk15 could you please say in your own words what you mean by Ari being thrown of balance (followed by asking it multiple times, escalating to threatening to yeet NK15 about it, then ignoring NK15 this game day despite never getting an answer)

Spoiler: strange things that are NAI at best

---> WIFOM-towncasing himself in posts 145 and 146.

---> scumreading ari/fire based on a secret ari tell he refused to explain

---> Refusing to explain why datisi was townish in earlygame until late d1, and the explanation was “datisi, when you asked about the list earlier, the reason you were an exception wasn't bc I was TRing you at that point, but more because I objected more to everyone else than to you, but didn't want to elaborate as I wanted to allow some more natural interactions to play out w/out me influencing them” (???)

Spoiler: trajectory on std

go read std’s posts on the topic

I didn't even write everything, but I came close, and I can't. Play mafia any harder than this. So this is what you get, take it or lim me, I guess

[Aristeia]

my eyes are glazing over and i don't like the way the vc in 1700 is looking at me

so what you're saying here is that me and ari should each vote one of irrel/mena, leaving them both at e-1 with only you left unvoted and you get to choose who to hammer?

that's what you want, right?

p sure nk15 will hammer mena

[fireisredsir]

alas, it never would have worked, twas but a fleeting dream

[Irrelephant11]

I didn't even write everything

notably I didn't really get past the first half or 2/3 of d1 when reading mena's ISO, so I might be missing reasons he is town that happened close to deadline. But my memory is that he was pretty absent until he joined the coalition that had him in it.

I still stand by everything I DID reread and write about, though

[Irrelephant11]

Overall the case is weaker than I expected, actually. But I still see him as the most likely suspect and think he's done genuinely scummy things, and I needed to put that out there instead of just going see things my way

[Aristeia]

also relying on Dats to decide things is uh

hehe

[Datisi]

also relying on Dats to decide things is uh

hehe

fun if you want to see me suffer, not fun if you actually want to win this game of mafia

[Irrelephant11]

alas, it never would have worked, twas but a fleeting dream

curious what the goal was? I could tell it was a reaction test but not what kind

[Aristeia]

also relying on Dats to decide things is uh

hehe

fun if you want to see me suffer, not fun if you actually want to win this game of mafia

<3

there is a voice in my head that tells me i shouldnt trust you but i locked it inside a safe and dumped it into the ocean.

[fireisredsir]

alas, it never would have worked, twas but a fleeting dream

curious what the goal was? I could tell it was a reaction test but not what kind

was a joke, dats gets stressed out by having to hammer/make pivotal decisions

i don't think he likes it as either alignment so not really a reaction test tbh

[Datisi]

the actually very stupid part of this whole game is that reading irrel's case did make me start thinking about the fact that there are one or two things that might point to mena being scum... but they don't have much to do with the case that irrel actually brought out, which is uh, fun

[Datisi]

if it turns out that skitter was scum this whole time and i got distracted by these two, i'm gonna be ANGY

[Menalque]

We can lim me today so long as the following order is relly -> ari no exceptions

[Datisi]

there is a voice in my head that tells me i shouldnt trust you but i locked it inside a safe and dumped it into the ocean.

is there anything that i can do to help this? :<

@mena pls explain

[Menalque]

Sorry, I just don’t feel there’s enough time left/that I’m willing to make a big enough effort (given that players in mafia are notoriously bad at actually taking a step back and seeing that they’re confbiased) to try to avoid this

So I will content myself (hopefully) with being right here and trust that town see this out afterwards once my flip clarifies that relly is full of shit

[Aristeia]

there is a voice in my head that tells me i shouldnt trust you but i locked it inside a safe and dumped it into the ocean.

is there anything that i can do to help this? :<

@mena pls explain

what do you mean. do you want to fish him out of the ocean ? :>

[fireisredsir]

As I outlined in 518, scum have to play this setup kind of awkwardly. While it’s usually useful to get some townies pocketed by handing out townreads, it’s much more dangerous during the coalition stage of this setup, because oops you made townies townread each other and now they’ve coalition’d without you.

why do you think mena went to the effort of towncasing you in 414? i think the case helped make some people townread you and seems counter to the narrative you stated that he has here

[Menalque]

menalque pls explain how std redding solves the game

If StD reds we have 3 conftown in NK15, mala, and fire

Scum have to kill the conftown

It also basically clears me until elo (at which point sure, paranoia if I’m not dead and game is still going) so we just lim relly->ari and the game ends

It’s basically GG if you flip red and the coalition scum isn’t incredibly deep