Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Datisi]

maybe not specific meta points but like the AtE in general clearly did have an effect on ari

okay, but that's not what i'm interested in there, it's whether scum!mena would've thought it would've had an effect -- which my gut tells me "no" but i don't know of every single game they've played in before so y'know

anything interesting from perpetual melo?

[fireisredsir]

just that he is willing to get tilted and yell at people as scum and call them bad much more than he has here

[fireisredsir]

i still think that here he doesn't have the evidence to back up his level of confidence that would result in the emotion he has displayed

[Datisi]

fire, how confident are you in your vote? also i assume you're planning to vote mena, but correct me if i'm wrong

[fireisredsir]

oh not at all confident

i would say im slightly leaning mena at this point

[Datisi]

okay i looked over parts of mala's iso, coupled with the vc in 766, and hmm. mala came into the game saying how she wanted to remove me/ari/std from coalitions -- i'm the most consensus townread of the three at that point, the other two are kind of likely to get in but also not a lock.

basically i think her actions there, if scum, make most sense if she's partners with mena? like, she doesn't outright strong townread him, she's "okay" with him being in, but also her preferred coalition has both her and nk15 in (lol) and i think she'd definitely be aware enough to know that is not happening so then by process of elimination, who gets in...?

i'm not sure whether mala's vote on mena on early d2 makes sense, i guess it does if it was pure distancing and hoping the wagon turns to someone else, but meh. and roden's quick turnaround on mena is not Good, i guess. if we do end up yeeting mena and he reds, i will give this more thought. but like, nowhere near convinced these associates are so bad that they override my individual read of mena.

[fireisredsir]

what was the impetus for looking at mala specifically at this time

[Datisi]

writing 1868 reminded me that she was the only person who i recalled explicitly noting "hey, this person suddenly started looking panicky" and it made me wonder if it would give any revelations about the game

it did not, but like, the hope was there i guess

i'm basically procrastinating making a decision on the actual issue because making decisions is scary >.>

[fireisredsir]

fair

[Roden]

I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie. I think their frustration with this Day phase is also genuine. Going back further, though I don't think STD is scum, I do think Mena's case on him came from a solvey mindset.

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

i have an iso >.> but basically, thinking mena is town for [meta reasons that seem to not vibe with anyone other than skitter], ari is town for the way she played d1. have been thinking skitter is most likely scum in the coalition for a while (but i've kinda liked her more recent posting i guess??? jury's still out), and getting increasingly nervous about irrel

outside the coalition, thinking fire is town but fuck if i know about the other three -- std is more likely to be town than the other two i guess but i am v low confidence on all of those

I actually did read your ISO, I just wanted an updated take since EoD is approaching and you've been fence sitting.

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum, and everyone here is competent enough to coach him to not flail with his reads/solves going into Day 2. Fire is null to me only because they didn't seem to have the spotlight at all so far. I agree with STD likely being town, but disagree with your Skitter scum read, consensus nominations tend to be town and nothing in her ISO sticks out as scummy to me.

I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari, and while I agree, I think it's odd that no one really seemed to push you two. It's too late in the day to do it now, but you two should've been leading wagons imo, that would've given everyone plenty of info seeing who would push who and if your wagons would naturally dissipate. If you were both town, I believe scum would see you two as the optimal push on Day 2, and if I'm right on NK15 being town then scum likely would've backed him when he scum cased the two of you. I just don't see how there could be zero momentum towards wagoning either of you if you're both town and part of the coalition.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

[skitter30]

mmm, what's the actual idea? because i think you're asking two different questions here

fire is a player that at one point became seemingly "desparate", yes, but i think the same can be applied to mala and her sudden burst in posting at one point that i thought was very odd. obviously neither of these is actually like, indicative of much, since the coalition did ultimately fail, but maybe it's indicative of partners... i'll go check that after breakfast

{ari, dats, irrel, skitter} (i'm adding you there because i feel like it applies) were exceedingly likely to get in, nobody there didn't seem to be much desperation from anyone else, therefore there's scum in that group? i guess i disagree with the premise of people not being really desperate since i think both fire and mala fit that criteria at least at some points... mena was absent for a bit, so not like he could've gotten depserate anyway, and he voted in a coalition that was not his first choice when he got back; and std did not seem thrilled about being out...

like let me know if i'm misunderstanding your point, but i feel like "there wasn't much desperation about the coalition, therefore there's scum in the more narrow consensus" is not correct?

For the purposes of this question i'm looking at people in the coalition: we know there's at least one scum in it

Yet nobody who got in was really anxious or panicky about getting in - to me that kinda implies that there's scum in the earlier consensus who didnt need to worry abt getting in

Like i'm not so worried abt fire getting desperate, cuz if he's scum one of his partners was basically in already
Same with mala

[skitter30]

Unless we want to posit that they're like scum with exactly mena

[skitter30]

Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario,

I dont understand this bit

[Menalque]

Okay self then

Why did you post this?

because I was frustrated and also because Relly is apparently certain I'm scum and doesn't want to consider any other flip

I've outright stated that if we flip Relly first and he flips town, I won't fight my lim tomorrow and that if I try to do so it's a scumclaim

now I don't know if town!him would actually do it, but I'd expect town!him to at least weigh it up if it leads to his guaranteed desired lim on who he's supposedly sure is scum, but scum him can never even entertain the idea because it's essentially a throw

[Menalque]

i guess i can do irrelephant cuz i dont like listening to toxic mena rage at me ~.~

I'd like to point out that since my return I've played like 5 games and have been toxic in none of them (I hope) so this doesn't seem like an accurately founded concern

[Menalque]

like if you're going to vote Relly do it because you think he's scum not because you're worried about something that won't happen

[Menalque]

also hi Roden, nice to see you

[Aristeia]

mena i just want to be clear here

if irrel flips town you get flipped tomm and you never call bop in any game with me again ok?

[Aristeia]

like if you're going to vote Relly do it because you think he's scum not because you're worried about something that won't happen

I'm going to vote for Irrel today because that's the elimination you want to happen and I personally don't enjoy the type of things you've said about me. I do not want it to get more unpleasant.

[Datisi]

For the purposes of this question i'm looking at people in the coalition: we know there's at least one scum in it

Yet nobody who got in was really anxious or panicky about getting in - to me that kinda implies that there's scum in the earlier consensus who didnt need to worry abt getting in

i see what you mean now, ty

i don't think that's actually very helpful since 4 of the 5 seemed kinda likely to get in for a while, and the 5th one is mena who was v/la for a decent portion of that time iirc, and who did vote for the first coalition that had himself in, so /shrug

[Datisi]

consensus nominations tend to be town
...
I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari

how is skitter being a consensus nomination +town for her, but not for other people that were consensus too?

who is the "a lot" - and there *have* been people pushing for ari, why do you think they're not scum? who was trying to stop our wagon?

[Irrelephant11]

I had a long post and it got deleted D:

[Irrelephant11]

Ari I have to say that the idea you might vote me today because you’re trying to avoid unpleasantness with mena freaking sucks (I don’t swear but insert swear words mentally if that helps you get how I feel). I’ve played this game so hard for town, like so so so hard. Hours of my life that nobody asked for but that I am putting in because I think I’ve caught scum and don’t feel heard. Vote me if you scumread me. Don’t you dare vote me to appease mena.

[Irrelephant11]

Skitter me memory is that mena was more likely to end up in the coalition until I flipped on him near end of day, and ari was not a lock for the coalition (you and ari both were suggesting she be left out). So I could be remembering wrong but my impression att is (skitter, irrel, Datisi, mena) would be the comfortable ones. It’s part of why I flipped on mena before end of d1, was realizing fire is probably town and nobody else had seemed desperate and so someone I was townreading was probably scum. I decided mena. I still think it’s mena.

[Irrelephant11]

I lost another long post I’m very distressed