Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[bloodhail]

bloodhail, do you think there's any merit to the argument that mena's cases aren't strong enough to justify his level of frustration/confidence?

wondering cause im not like super confident in it but it is kind of a sticking point for me atm

(references: 1794, 1796, and 1797 I talk about this, 1558, 1744, 1746, 1767 are examples of the kind of attitude i was talking about from him)

i think you're making a very basic mistake here

what you are calling out is that mena's expressed confidence level in his

read

does not match the strength of the

case

presented

the thing is, a case is only words someone puts together to try to make a read understandable to other people but the read is something that you develop before you put any words to it. that he is unable to explain it adequately doesn't make him scum. and i don't necessarily feel like the read feels like scum-flail as much as someone wrapped up in an ego clash (biased because i've ego clashed with him multiple times before)


i see what you're saying and, like, it's entirely possible that this is him putting on a show as scum but. that's not how i lean on it. when i've seen him as scum with his back against the wall it was bluster and stalling and not even really being able to manufacture a push on town. this looks more real. could be off base but thats my assessment. if i have time i'll reread him to be sure.

[fireisredsir]

hmmm ok ty

i do also feel like there were times when he talked about it in a way that made it feel like he didn't actually have that strong of confidence in it, and times where he did, depending on who he was talking to/the situation, so that factored in as well to me thinking it was putting on a show

[Roden]

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

[skitter30]

not my fault you're an easy read lmao

uhhhh ... see prior examples where i was decidedly not an easy read for you?
and i don't think you've had a chance to read me properly since then, no?

and if you think she's with me or datisi, then you should basically always flip one of us first rather than ari b/c we have more potential partners than ari

fair enuf, i think that this is actually a decent approach

because mena is an omgussy boy and he doesnt want to get on his bad side. (that's how i played around mena as scum, lol)

the reasoning for mena-town is more or less accurate. that doesnt matter a ton to me. scum can give reasoning for townreads that is true and accurate because they have perfect info.

ig this is kinda what dats is sort of paranoia-scum on me for ...
like ig why am i not scum who's just townreading mena to get on his good side and why isn't dats just town who knows how to read mena properly?

[fireisredsir]

hmm i will prob not be around at deadline o'clock tomorrow

will try to figure out where i want my vote to go tonight if i have time

but im not really at all close to feeling confident about anything atm and not sure if that's likely to change

[skitter30]

i'm not sure i'm going to get to a better answer than 'bloodhail' today before deadline

[bloodhail]

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

you do realize i am suggesting

you

are the most likely partner, right

anyway i hold no secrets

[fireisredsir]

i'm not sure i'm going to get to a better answer than 'bloodhail' today before deadline

i kinda buy that he wouldn't have entered like this as scum but im not sure if that's like reasonable at all

idk i am weak

[Roden]

Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario,

I dont understand this bit

Basically scum doesn't make those posts and final read lists if they know they're gonna die. Rena/Elephant and Rena/Ari don't work as scum teams at that point either since they don't fit a scum agenda. I wish was more eloquent in getting my thoughts across but I can't think of a better way of explaining it.

[bloodhail]

uhhhh ... see prior examples where i was decidedly not an easy read for you?
and i don't think you've had a chance to read me properly since then, no?

i am half trolling you because it's fun, but i was going to turn against you in panic room before i got the rug pulled from under me. i decidedly do not get the same feeling from you here.

like, eh, maybe i'm wrong and dumb and letting myself get owned by you again, but if i'm right i get to lmao to the graveyard by reading you easily while you get me wrong again, and that is extremely funny to me

like ig why am i not scum who's just townreading mena to get on his good side and why isn't dats just town who knows how to read mena properly?

you just feel genuine in your scumhunting and he does not

that's probably an unsatisfying answer but i'm not too intent on proving myself to you here given time constraints - would rather you just flip me if you feel it's necessary and then consider my reads

[skitter30]

I was more thinking of the slaughterhouse example

[skitter30]

i'm not sure i'm going to get to a better answer than 'bloodhail' today before deadline

i kinda buy that he wouldn't have entered like this as scum but im not sure if that's like reasonable at all

idk i am weak

I mean sure but idk who i would vote otherwise

[skitter30]

So if u flip town here you'd want us to flip dats tom?

@bloodhail

[bloodhail]

I'm writing his scumcase in a word doc but let's imagine we're scum!mena for a minute, and look at our options when we enter the thread ~48 hours(? Can't remember exactly) after D2 starts.

> try to lim datisi? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim skitter? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim aristeia? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim irrelephant? And look like one of the worst OMGUS's in a long time?

Hm. Realistically the lim will probably be inside the coalition, but if I can get the heat off me for a minute maybe one of them will look bad. Not to mention, if I can take someone (anyone) down before I go down, that's 1/3 of the way to a win. So let me think if there's anyone else limmable:

> try to lim nk15? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim malakittens? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim fireisredsir? Doesn't everyone think fire is town? Doubt this gets any traction and gains me an enemy where I currently don't have an enemy
> try to lim std? Enough people scumread him that he didn't make it into the coalition, maybe I could get votes there. At the very least it fits with what I've posted previously in a way that is town. PLUS he's coming for me so I kinda need to discredit him so people don't listen to him. Keeps an enemy where I have an enemy, nothing lost there. Yeah this is the best of 8 sucky options

Gamestate reasons that point to menalque

Spoiler: Scum is in the coalition

---> this is obvious, but is a reason why there’s no point in thinking about scumreads outside the coalition. Therefore, I’m ruling out voting for four players until I see a red flip.

Spoiler: Scum voted for the coalition

---> I think I’m the only one who has suggested this, but I find it extremely unlikely that fire or nk15 are the only scum who voted for it and skitter is the singular scum (and, from anyone else’s POV, that I’m the singular scum) in the coalition. It’s just like a mislim in any other setup, it furthered scum’s wincon so scum almost certainly voted for it, though maybe not both.

---> For this reason, I think scum!skitter’s partner must be fireisredsir or notknown15.

---> This also suggests it’s pretty likely that menalque, datisi, or aristeia is scum

Spoiler: Some players got their preferred coalition and some didn’t

this is a little galaxy-brain of me so be warned it might kill your desire to keep reading my post.

---> This might sound like the last point, but it’s distinct. There were two viable coalitions at EOD1. Skitter, std, and I wanted std in. aristeia, datisi, fire, nk15 and menalque wanted menalque in. malakittens didn’t vote for either. This matters because I believe std to be town, and he was left out. In a world where std and menalque are both town, I think the std coalition would have hammered. In that world:
>>>>>> scum!datisi wouldn’t have objected to std so strongly because std was easier for him to mislim than menalque
>>>>>> scum!aristeia would have continued being accommodating to me/skitter and let it be std to blame us when it failed
>>>>>> scum!skitter is unlikely to get so lucky that a counterwagon appears and goes through without her vote

---> But if menalque is scum, the shift in momentum is obvious: to get menalque into the coalition.

Spoiler: Scum felt comfortable day 1 (disclaimer: weak point)

--->In the two games I’ve played of coalition, a way that scum became obvious in those games was a slight undertone of desperation when it seemed likely that town was on its way to forming a coalition without them. The only player I felt that from in this game was fireisredsir, which was a reason I thought he was scum for awhile. But I don’t think fireisredsir would feel desperate on behalf if partnered with any of players in the coalition, since it was consensus from pretty early on that 5 of me/std/aristeia/datisi/skitter/menalque would probably make the coalition. So scum never felt desperate. Well gee how is that helpful since like I just said the reads were mostly consensus all game. Well I personally think it’s a good reason to townread aristeia, who like me offered to stay out of the coalition with fire (I meant it so maybe I’m projecting but I think she meant it too). The more I think about this point… the less impactful it feels. Do with it what you will.

Leaving this because it was a reason I had until I wrote this post and I guess that’s useful info:

Spoiler: Low posters are usually scum and top posters are usually town in this setup. Proof:

- scum were #5 & #6 posters

- scum were #2 and #9 posters

- shoot another one where scum included the #2 poster, I guess maybe this isn’t a good point

- and another where scum were #1 and #4, alright nvm I concede the point. I guess it was based on my experience only, and is dumb

Menalque’s play itself

Spoiler: generally, a lack of townreads

---> As I outlined in 518, scum have to play this setup kind of awkwardly. While it’s usually useful to get some townies pocketed by handing out townreads, it’s much more dangerous during the coalition stage of this setup, because oops you made townies townread each other and now they’ve coalition’d without you.

---> Meanwhile, I think town enjoy this setup because it’s all about finding fellow townies. We quickly heal because yay found one, we quickly hurt because ~wait~uh~oh~paranoia~ and then heal someone else. This is anecdotal but I think holds up better upon reviewing multiple coalition games than my point about low posters.

--->Menalque does not do the townie-looking-for-townies thing, like at all. By 137 he had a single read (compare to 138 where datisi has a full coalition) – me as town. By 415 he has not shared any further reads, with the minor exception of 272 where he hints he might be okay with datisi being in a coalition. 416 he heals me and datisi. 455 (455????) he shares a readslist where every single read is town-but-heavily-hedging, null, or scum.

---> In 272 he suggests 5 players shouldn’t be townreads for ari yet, without explaining why any of them might be scum or helping to sort them at all. Just feels like he’s pushing townies down in general

Spoiler: questions that go nowhere

---> Relly, why are you getting paranoid of skit? (followed by explaining why I shouldn’t be townreading skitter)

---> @nk15 could you please say in your own words what you mean by Ari being thrown of balance (followed by asking it multiple times, escalating to threatening to yeet NK15 about it, then ignoring NK15 this game day despite never getting an answer)

Spoiler: strange things that are NAI at best

---> WIFOM-towncasing himself in posts 145 and 146.

---> scumreading ari/fire based on a secret ari tell he refused to explain

---> Refusing to explain why datisi was townish in earlygame until late d1, and the explanation was “datisi, when you asked about the list earlier, the reason you were an exception wasn't bc I was TRing you at that point, but more because I objected more to everyone else than to you, but didn't want to elaborate as I wanted to allow some more natural interactions to play out w/out me influencing them” (???)

Spoiler: trajectory on std

go read std’s posts on the topic

I didn't even write everything, but I came close, and I can't. Play mafia any harder than this. So this is what you get, take it or lim me, I guess

yall think this is scum??? WILD

i didnt even see this post before i replaced in but like. cmon.

[bloodhail]

So if u flip town here you'd want us to flip dats tom?

@bloodhail

yeah. only had a few hours of reading but i have enough meta on all of you that i'm reasonably confident in the read and if i get one called shot in the game, that would be it

i do want to reread menalque to cover my bases on him but other than that, i feel secure enough in you as town and ari as town, and i think std and fire are almost always town here

[bloodhail]

I think he's just trying to get me mislimmed before he goes down. If he comes for me, he can maybe get 1/3 of the way to a scum win. Anyone else and he just goes down

Like the push on me is so so opportunistic. Meanwhile I've burned all my towncred making this case and it still might not go through?

Anyone see town!mena telling me to self-vote, please link me to the last time he did. 100% AtE to get one mislim in before I take him down

this is like, classic town committed to an ego tunnel

Ari I have to say that the idea you might vote me today because you’re trying to avoid unpleasantness with mena freaking sucks (I don’t swear but insert swear words mentally if that helps you get how I feel). I’ve played this game so hard for town, like so so so hard. Hours of my life that nobody asked for but that I am putting in because I think I’ve caught scum and don’t feel heard. Vote me if you scumread me. Don’t you dare vote me to appease mena.

The long post that I wrote and lost twice was weirdly similar to menalque’s above posts

Here’s the summary: I’m pretty angry. I want to confine those emotions to one post for game pleasantness.

Datisi, stop being lazy about sorting between me and Menalque.

Skitter, if you’re going to vote me make the scumcase. Right now it seems like you’re voting me just because I’m doing everything I can to get a mena lim (when I could have come into today confused and waiting for a lim to present itself - this is a reason youre townreading mena, remember?). Ive been angry and direct and, fypov, manipulative. I’ve seen you scumread shoshin for the same moves and you know I like how she plays. Consider my motivations, not just my most recent posts towards you pls.

Aristeia, vote me if you’re scum or you think I’m scum. Don’t vote me to avoid an argument or something, because you know I’ve put blood sweat and tears into this game.

Fire, you’re the only one besides std and I who seems to see that anything mena is doing is scummy. Consider why you and std are basically being ignored and I’m collecting votes for making a push you (at least sort of) agree with. Please appeal to those you think are town a little louder, if it’s something you believe in.

I get that I’ve put myself into this 1v1 but I’m so mad that multiple players seem to be shrugging instead of sorting us. I feel so unheard and I can’t tell who’s scum but I’m very upset about the general way this game day has gone because I really thought I came into the day confident on a read and making the case as best I could and now I feel like mena’s couple of “don’t you dare” posts is going to win the day because it satisfies some meta expectation of mena. This just sucks.

Angry pity party over (and this is the short version lol)

this is like. so obviously genuine. he's tilted because he thinks people are refusing to scumread menalque due to being friends with him. i guess there are worlds where you can see this as scum salt because they can't get their preferred mis-elim but i think it shines through as fairly genuine (but i am biased)


i don't think him taking a reflexive stepback is scummy i actually think not many players attempt that maneuver as scum

I did think it was scummy that ari’s single strong, non-sheep argument all game long is that skitter is wrong and bad for voting her. I’d kind of forgotten but isn’t it sort of scummy that her only emphatic push could be read as self-defense? @datisi

Petit: I’m just continuing mena’s argument that seemed reasonable I have no idea if skitter is town

are any of your reads not based in meta?

Have you ever seen scum!ari, Datisi? I thought she said she’s only rolled town before

But like maybe acknowledge that you don’t know how scum!ari would play this setup and decide if scum motivations match her actions here without regard for her username? Is my request

and this again is someone who seems to be cracking a bit because every time he scumreads someone he gets a meta shield dropped in front of him. again you can try and squint and call it scum but. you'd be wrong. dude was just trying to solve and hated getting smacked down all the time

[bloodhail]

this stuff was @ skitter asking me why i thought irrelephant was towny

[skitter30]

Ty

Maybe i should revive my read if dats/ari svt from way back when ...
Woule make a lot of sense tbh with how day1/now is playing out

[skitter30]

Also dats i'm a little confused why ur sticking with ur reasons to townread ari when even ari said they were bad reasons

[Roden]

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

you do realize i am suggesting

you

are the most likely partner, right

anyway i hold no secrets

Ironically, I thought your slot was partnered with Datisi before I finished catching up and you replaced in. I got the feeling that Datisi was fence sitting because his partner was one of the leading wagons and he possibly didn't know whether or not to bus. And I felt that he was trying to scare/pressure me into voting Mena by suddenly seeing Mena/Mala connections even though he also tried to fight me on my Skitter town read. Plus Datisi had awkward interactions with Elephant and had virtually no read on him until somewhat recently, and even that came off as tepid suspicion, like he didn't really want to elim there.

Tbh I'm not completely over this theory yet despite town reading you. However if we do get a red Datisi flip, logically I don't see why you'd bus here, so I wouldn't want to flip you next.

I will say though that if I were partners with Datisi here, I wouldn't be distancing from him or fighting against the leading wagons. In that scenario, I have an extremely easy mis-elim chain of Elephant -> Mena -> STD/NK, and Ari would be so deeply pocketed that even if I got voted out, Datisi is still practically guaranteed to win in ELo. Me not taking that path and instead resisting it should indicate that we aren't partners, as I would've just voted Elephant and let Datisi hammer.

[Ydrasse]

VOTECOUNT 2.4

[3] bloodhail:

Not Known 15, skitter30, Menalque

[2] Datisi:

bloodhail, Roden

[1] Menalque:

Save the Dragons

[3] Not Voting:

Datisi, Aristeia, fireisredsir

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate!

The deadline is in (expired on 2022-05-20 18:52:45).

MOD NOTES

- tired vcs? with mistakes? more likely than you think. report it if you see it and thank you citizens

- clicky here for joined mod iso.

[bloodhail]

However if we do get a red Datisi flip, logically I don't see why you'd bus here

uhh bro did u even click that link cmon. everyone is going to yell at you that i would absolutely bus so i'll do it first

I will say though that if I were partners with Datisi here, I wouldn't be distancing from him or fighting against the leading wagons. In that scenario, I have an extremely easy mis-elim chain of Elephant -> Mena -> STD/NK, and Ari would be so deeply pocketed that even if I got voted out, Datisi is still practically guaranteed to win in ELo. Me not taking that path and instead resisting it should indicate that we aren't partners, as I would've just voted Elephant and let Datisi hammer.

i mean like

in this scenario datisi is deep and not sacrificing his thread position for the sake of a day 1 elim (and any sudden hammer there is pretty bad) so i don't find this super compelling but if i'm wrong i'm wrong, my highest priority was reading within the coalition

[skitter30]

Ok attempting to read thru dats's iso (backwards apparently)

It is kinda interesting that dats kinda just strongly defended mena in the mena/irrel thing but never really progressed a read on irrel

Honestlu for a lot of it the argument he's basically calling it tvt while putting a whole lot of scrutiny towards me. But without voting me either

His argument with me earlier is still very hmmmmm
And i'm honestly still not sure what he was scumreading me for there / was trying to get out of it

I still kinda think dats should recognize this is not my scumgame

Dats doesnt really have a firm scumread all day tbh, and honestly from the earlier part of the phase i'm unsure why he isnt pushing me more

I'm still having a hard time with the narrative of 1333, esp since i think he glossed over posts right in the middle that i feel went against his point
The main thing he had a strong reaction to all of day1 was me .... not even pushing him, but pushing ari. And then the sr on me just kinda fizzled out at some point too

Kinda just continuing to go thru it, a lot od his scumreads are a little ephemeral tbh

Dats why were u so opposed to std even being in the coalition again? Like i'm reading backwards but u very emphatically refuse me/irrel/std/mena in 1037 in favor of me/you/mena/irrel/std (i.e. taking out std, adding you and ari), but u have a post from later that morning iso-ing std and walking back the scumread a bit

Contrast between ari and dats: ari p consistently was fine with being out (and so was irrel). Basically all of dats' coalitions that i've been seeing always have him in it

Also like i referenced above: dats/ari right around rvs were really, really weird

Ok after that exercise not sure why i'm townreading dats tbh

[bloodhail]

okay so: i think the first half of menalque's iso is pretty towny. i think the thing that happened was the classic read entropy thing, where he was v/la when the coalition got hammered and failed, and people started suspecting him for being inactive because that's how mafia games go - people just get paranoid of whoever isn't talking at that exact moment

i think in particular him making the reactive omgus push on std is, like, always town - as scum he'd be more goal oriented and i think he knows a wagon outside the coalition isn't happening, and like i said it reads like a classic ego push thing (and im not trying to be condescending here i am recognizing this behavior because i often do it myself). i dont think he goes all-in trying to bury StD with a wall as scum to get townread because i dont think he has that confidence level in his play. it just reads a lot like...someone who doesn't get std's playstyle and thinks it's scummy. i mean i can see scum trying to push him because the playstyle can make him limbaity (i know because i did it myself!) but...he should know that that flip is not

happening

. i find it more likely that his read there is genuine even tho i do not agree with it.

[bloodhail]

okay i finished rereading menalque's iso and he is extremely town

you can laugh at me for being a scrub at this game if im wrong but i really wouldnt flip him ever

i dont have time for a towncase i just feel it in my bones