Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Aristeia]

I dont think its fire at all

so my thought process was:

I think the partner should be off-coalition and not on your original coalition for dats to ate me into dragging him into your coalition

which leaves [fire, mala, nk15]

and I don't think dats has the wim to work that hard if he was partnered with either mala or nk15

which leaves fire

[Roden]

Well that's an interesting night kill ...

I probably want to flip nk15 today

its probly just fireisred

i will have to reread

This is where I'm at.

Myself and Ari will probably have to be limmed after this. This leaves us with one more lim. Who?

Why Ari? Also why did you disappear around the time one of your preferred elims actually had momentum on their wagon?

[bloodhail]

ANYWAY std iso

101 i dislike because it's a v easy way to get onto what's popular at the time. also the explanations for the votes are kinda lackluster because the description of my 37 is very uncharitable and "skitter seems to be solving" is like, such a low bar to place for someone like skitter

then, his vote of mena for 145/146. maybe it's me who's used to mena's sense of humour and writing style and those posts seemed very normal to me. (in fact they were a bit of a positive sign after the first few posts which felt way too boring but anyway.) std immediately jumping onto that feels like scum who saw a townie acting wacky and decided to try to spin them into looking bad, i.e. performative, because the words that they wrote were level-zero-thinking bad. like, i usually find that town is more likely to critically think about *why* mena would write something that maybe looks weird while scum is more likely to try to make it seem bad because that is their job description. yes i'm aware std later said he misunderstood or changed his mind or whatever no i still don't like it.

the rest of his iso is also... kinda boring. like, a bunch of it is joking around or arguing theory with mena. like, afair i don't think std usually puts out a lot of content as town or rather not a lot of "serious, well structured content", but there's usually some sorta thought process i can follow and here i don't think i can follow a lot of it. not sure if i could explain the reason of one read he had.

like, again, page 15 48 hours but it's not a Great look.

i feel that both irrel and std are some sorta vibe townreads for the majority of the game, and either my vibe radar is broken or they're getting read for nonsense reasons and idk which and mafia is a fuck

so i didn't go into this fully yesterday but one of the things that tipped me off on datisi was this about how he played the coalition stage:

it looked like he was systematically trying to weaken townreads on players like relly and std - as compared to everyone else who was trying to assemble a towncore, he loooked to be putting doubt on players as a means of making himself more likely to be included in the coalition

i don't think he pre-emptively tries to keep his partner out of the coalition if they're getting townread and i want to say this makes STD town (i think in general STD is, like, way way outside his scumrange this game but additional evidence helps)

[Aristeia]

I guess we could just flip nk15 cuz he's uber scummy

[Roden]

i mean that slot was very likely hardspewed town regardless but still

was kind of looking forward to getting night killed and not rereading tbh :<

same tbh

You're probably alive because you said you wanted to elim me next. Tbh you likely would've died if Mena hadn't replaced out since he was tunneled on town slots.

[Aristeia]

gosh fire has such a cute iso mb its not him ~_~

[bloodhail]

I dont think its fire at all

so my thought process was:

I think the partner should be off-coalition and not on your original coalition for dats to ate me into dragging him into your coalition

which leaves [fire, mala, nk15]

and I don't think dats has the wim to work that hard if he was partnered with either mala or nk15

which leaves fire

i dont think datisi mails it in regardless of who his partner is

i dont think fire is impossible but let's analyze a bit more thoroughly

[skitter30]

Ig i'm not sure fire joins the eod dats wagon when partnered with dats

And nk15 spent like all of day1 insisting ari/dats were svs and then started pushing ari alone day2, and then just dropped this theory
And my understanding is this is p much his scum-meta

Dats had a few posts particularly objecting when i mentioned the dats/nk15 theory
(And he even said @bloodhail that if he were scum with nk15 the approach you just described is how he'd approach the game ... )

~
Ari probably isnt scum with that eod but yeah
I do kinda stand by my point that the point of failure was including ari/dats

[Aristeia]

i dont think datisi mails it in regardless of who his partner is

mm yea but last time i saw him play scum in spring fling he was definitely not trying nearly as hard as here tho :>

[bloodhail]

i mean that slot was very likely hardspewed town regardless but still

was kind of looking forward to getting night killed and not rereading tbh :<

same tbh

You're probably alive because you said you wanted to elim me next. Tbh you likely would've died if Mena hadn't replaced out since he was tunneled on town slots.

i had nk15 ahead of you in my poe - there are things that make me doubt it being him but now that i have more time to analyze i can give people consideration

i think regardless the important thing is we figure out people who aren't likely to be mafia, as long as we trust in our townreads assembling a winning poe here should not be too hard

[Roden]

Ngl, I wanted Datisi even before Blood replaced in but didn't think I could ever get him that late into Day 1. He has a better social game than me and is a master of AtE. Tbh I'm shocked he actually got voted out, even just a little bit of support from a team mate would've saved him imo.

That's the main reason I'm reevaluating my read on NK15, because while I think it's possible Fire bussed, I don't think the scum team was prepared for a last minute Datisi elim. I think it's just more likely he didn't get any help rather than him getting bussed.

[skitter30]

Ok actually i cant find where dats said that but i very distinctly remember him telling me that that's how he'd be approaching the game here as scum

[Aristeia]

Ok actually i cant find where dats said that but i very distinctly remember him telling me that that's how he'd be approaching the game here as scum

was it in the scum pt? :#

[bloodhail]

Spoiler: dats talking about mala

good morning friends!!

v/la tuesdays and wednesdays

- uni is hell on these days. i see the *extremely* short deadline for the coalition however so i will do my best to at least check in on my phone during these days if need be

HEAL: datisi
HEAL: fireisredsir
HEAL: malakittens
HEAL: aristeia

fire reads kinda tonally the same as he did last game. yes i did misread him that game shut up. i have a probably very horrible reason for a townping on malakittens. and i was always gonna heal ari anyway but i do genuinely like the callout in 26 to keep an eye on the deadline.

VOTE: aristeia <3

ari, why do you think fire is mafia?

hello i am alive

i will be reading through what i missed properly in a bit, but there are two things i wanna cover right away

re 224:

(1) i healed malakittens because 8 is a post that i don't think? scum makes if they have a pregame chat with their partner and either one of them has bothered to plan ahead. because afair recent coalition games usually started with "hello i am healing a random group of people" not "i am voting for a random person". and someone who went to check previous games would probably remember that.

if you're now thinking "wow that's bullshit, scum can be lazy and not check previous games for meta", yes, absolutely! which is why it's a townping based on a single post on page 1 rather than a read set in stone!

(2) irrel: enters the game saying how he's haha so town while doing nothing that a townie entering the game would be doing
also irrel: why am i being questioned

yes, i get that this section is probably(?) criticizing me for my vocabulary choice and not the substance of the question. but it gives me a way to introduce my reasoning for the third point so i am taking it while making fun of the criticism because i'm pretty sure irrel can also see it's not a very good point.

(3) boy oh boy.

first, i don't do second hand meta cases. i know you've never played with me so it's very unlikely you know this, but i've said this multiple times over in the past.

then, the reason why i almost decided you were "just scum" was because you entered that game and had some sorta game-related action within a minute of entering. while here, you entered the game with "wow look at me i sure did roll town in this game" and then nothing for a while.

the *reason* why seeing you start at post 900 was that it made me realize that, oh shit, you were a replacement that game, therefore there was much more content in that game once you started playing in it than in this one, and you could've been reading the game yourself before you repped in, which is all variables that i cannot control and do not care to control therefore it's easier to just dump my case in the trash.

what did you think was my point here anyway? that i arbitrarily decided to trash my case because you just so happened to be a replacement that game?

i didn't like save the dragons's read on mena on pages 7/8, it felt more like trying to find something Weird to attack rather than actually having a read on something that makes someone scum

i can see and agree on ari's points in 177 but my read on fire is usually bad and i don't have too many townreads reads otherwise so i am not like, Convinced yet

datis is prob town
ari feels town as well.

HEAL: datis
HEAL: ari

idk about skitter,
i'm very bad about reading std
i dont have much exp with fire

mmm
this reminds me of like, lazy scum-mala i guess

the first thing that jumps out at me is the "i don't have much exp with fire" because i know mala's exp with me is one (1) game where we were both scum and i don't think the discussion about fire was so much about past experiences compared to discussion about other people that it warranted to mention specifically for him that she doesn't have experience

that sentence is a mess but it boils down to "explain pls"

190 does make me feel that ari is town, or rather it solidifies my read a bit more - it makes sense both with what happened in this game and in prior games and yeah

@ari why do u think fire gives me a townread and hedges a scumread on you
Kf anything i kinda feel like scum-him would do the opposite
(I am very prone to getting pocketed, yes yes yes)

correct me if i'm wrong, but this post kind of makes it sould like scum!fire would *have* to give one townread and one scumread in {aristeia, skitter}, so my q is why

and also like, why do you think fire would be likely to townread you here? i don't think he's familiar with your prone-ness to getting pocketed or whatever

200 from fire is a bit oof though

like i recall that fire said he wanted to wait for everyone to post before healing, but like, (1) mala had posted before (this point is pedantry tho so whatever) but (2) what about mala's 178 is something that makes you wanna heal her

done with page 9 and i'm tired and i'll be back in a bit

i think i'm at, like

i don't want mala or nk15 in the coalition - i feel like this setup, coupled with the extremely short deadline, can feel very demoralizing for scum if they don't get onto the train early and that makes sense from both of them. i think it's fairly unlikely they're both scum because games are almost never that easy but i would be somewhat surprised if they were both town. i guess nk15 is slightly townier than mala buh meh.

fire is kinda missing his usual fire (hehe) and while i did like the way we lowkey mindmelded on irrel yesterday night i'm wondering if that's enough. the posts i'm reading from him on the previous page feel like reads pulled out of random.org. like i don't get why he has them or that he actually believes in them or how he arrived at them and etc.

so i'm left with me/mena/skitt/ari and one of std or irrel? bleh maybe they're both town and i'm not giving enough credit to The Vibes but also time is short

why did i join this game

I promise that I am town but I think I might be able to exert more influence off-coalition if there is a failure and I really don't feel comfortable getting pushed for having a good scum game.

:<

from my experience playing and modding this setup, i feel like it's much more +ev for town to just add people who are town into the coalition rather than try to calculate an optimal coalition for solving the game for if/when it fails.

assuming me/skitt/mena/irrel will be 4/5, then it's a question who else to put in. say i can't put you in. mala and nk15 are out of the question. so it's between std and fire. looking at the vc last page, nobody is healing fire except for fire, and maybe i'm doing the same thing i did last game where town was just about to vote out scum!ceph and i tried to stop them because ??? because it would make sense for scum!fire to step on the gas if he's about to lose, but...

idk i didn't like the way std came around to a townread on me when i was starting to become a more popular townread while not engaging much with my points against him and bleh. if the majority of the game won't be changing their mind about possibly putting fire in rather than std (i say possibly because i haven't yet read fire's posts in depth to determine whether i actually wanna do that) then i'll vote ari out and vote std in because i don't have the time nor the energy to try to brute force things i myself am not sure about and that might be wrong.

but like, if there's a possibility that happens (i saw irrel talking about coming around to a townread on fire) and considering we'll get another 7 days after the coalition fails (assuming ari isn't lying about that because lol?) i think we can afford a day or two to just look at that possibility.

I'm kinda sus of mala's sr of ari tbh

^^^

up to here right now, and it feels like mala saw that a pure coalition is about to form so she's doing a hail mary of "leave out these 3 people are most have agreed should be in the coalition because *radio static*"

also this:

so id at least want to place myself over one of them because I KNOW i'm town via my own role pm via mod (unless the mod is just a jester)
so why would i leave myself out to possibly risk interchanging a mafia in it
naaaaaaaaathanks

is kinda funny because

while i get the "i'm not moving myself out of the coalition" mindset for townies, there's also the fact that if you have been prodging for the whole game and now drop in with takes that attack the current consensus and don't make sense, then it kind of makes sense that you're not getting in unless you significantly step on the gas in terms of towniness

and the fact that mala can probably sense that she's not doing that but there's still the "i want in bc i am town bc mod said so lol" is a sign of a non-existent self-awareness which i think makes much more sense from panicking scum than from town about to be left out

like idk if i'm town in mala's position and i see a coalition forming that i think is capital b Bad i probably try to spend the little time we have until it convincing people why it's bad not doing *this*

also like, not even mentioning the fact that mala's entrance read on me/ari was that we're town/town at a time when it was kinda popular to say our interactions are awkward

but now that we're kind of consensus townreads our interactions are pockety

where's the path from point a to point b

if scum really is mala and nk15 i am going to be so disappointed

I actually like this post by NK.
It actually lines up with how I'm feeling right now about this gamestate. Other than I disagree with how high std & mena are
although, i usually go for a townbloc rather than a scum bloc until late game w/ a scum flip and then i scumhunt hardcore for interactions/associates

@relly this is the one that felt unaligneed to me

If she knows she can’t get in to the coalition she needs to prop him up

yeah, that was my thought upon reading it too

it did occur to me that scum!mala can leave false trails (like she did in a recent game where we were both scum), but i kinda realized i don't really know how to tell between "scum!mala is panicking because both her and her buddy are about to be left out" and "scum!mala is doing distancing from a townread partner"

also thanks

god this is so fucking stupid

whichever iso i open i feel like i *could* make a scumcase if, like, i really needed to make one, but my mind just keeps going back to "nk15 and mala are scumfucks tho right" and no matter what i think about i can't justify scumreading someone over the two of them even if it's rarely that easy and afchgvuhiCf this game

I may have just gotten the warm and fuzzy feeling in his inital i'm going to townping her and I like how he didn't care to give his POV.

so, you went from townpinging on me, to... thinking i might be scum because me and ari townread each other and because YOU are prone to getting pocketed?

how is me/ari townread different than any other townread between two players in the game?

Datisi who’s std’s partner if you’re not so sure he’s town?

*potential partner, not asking for a scumcase, etc

spending about 15 seconds on it, i'd say mala because the "hey, std that all of you townread is Scum, Actually" into "actually nvm i guess he's maybe town lol idk" is weird and has a clear scum motive if she's scum with std for distancing then panicking that he might not even get into the coalition

i'm awful at d1 preflip, especially for people that i don't even have a Strong Scumread on

Ugh.

Maybe I’m coming around to a ari and dat town again

who do you think is scum in the coalition then?

(1) have you read my towncase on him (2) do you have reasonings for any of those reads

Mend?

He was kinda my idk if I want to switch him in or out player

(1) have you read my towncase on him (2) do you have reasonings for any of those reads

VOTE: mena

Why do u think mena?

ok i'm gonna channel my inner dkkoba for a second:

malakittens explain the scumread on menalque challenge (120% impossible) (gone wrong) (not clickbait) (not sponsored)

this is unedited because im lazy but like


this...kinda looks like textbook distancing, no?

[Roden]

Ngl, I wanted Datisi even before Blood replaced in but didn't think I could ever get him that late into Day 1. He has a better social game than me and is a master of AtE. Tbh I'm shocked he actually got voted out, even just a little bit of support from a team mate would've saved him imo.

That's the main reason I'm reevaluating my read on NK15, because while I think it's possible Fire bussed, I don't think the scum team was prepared for a last minute Datisi elim. I think it's just more likely he didn't get any help rather than him getting bussed.

To add on to the "scum weren't prepared" idea: I think all of Datisi's WIFOM attempts at the end were fake.

[skitter30]

No, i remember him saying it i thought in our big argument but i cant find it now

[Save The Dragons]

My reads suck

[skitter30]

Why does roden kill faker instead of either of the 2 people sayong its dats/mala?

[Aristeia]

you read so much faster than me :<

[bloodhail]

My reads suck

its ok dude everyone has misses sometimes


i think a big thing is that i came into the game when there were already 80 pages of content and it was fresh to me, i didnt have ideas stuck in my head from memory i was fixated on

if id been in from the start dunno if i do any better

just gotta pick yourself up and keep trying

[fireisredsir]

hi i think its nk but its possibly roden

[fireisredsir]

gosh fire has such a cute iso mb its not him ~_~

[fireisredsir]

def thought bloodhail was dying so kinda interesting that he didn't ig

[bloodhail]

i should also say i dont think skitter is ever scum from the interactions between her and datisi - knowing now there was a raging tvt between my slot and mena i dont see why datisi ever distances from his partner who is getting townread at that time, just seems wildly anti-wincon. his shade on skitter was s0 nitpicky, too

(this is to say nothing of the fact that scum-skitt never unvotes when i have stated my willingness to selfhammer to end the day)

so if we can confidently set std/skitter as town i think 1 more confident town read wins us the game

[fireisredsir]

i dont think datisi mails it in regardless of who his partner is

mm yea but last time i saw him play scum in spring fling he was definitely not trying nearly as hard as here tho :>

wasn't that during exams

i could see him just trying to hard solo carry here