Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Roden]

I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie. I think their frustration with this Day phase is also genuine. Going back further, though I don't think STD is scum, I do think Mena's case on him came from a solvey mindset.

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

i have an iso >.> but basically, thinking mena is town for [meta reasons that seem to not vibe with anyone other than skitter], ari is town for the way she played d1. have been thinking skitter is most likely scum in the coalition for a while (but i've kinda liked her more recent posting i guess??? jury's still out), and getting increasingly nervous about irrel

outside the coalition, thinking fire is town but fuck if i know about the other three -- std is more likely to be town than the other two i guess but i am v low confidence on all of those

I actually did read your ISO, I just wanted an updated take since EoD is approaching and you've been fence sitting.

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum, and everyone here is competent enough to coach him to not flail with his reads/solves going into Day 2. Fire is null to me only because they didn't seem to have the spotlight at all so far. I agree with STD likely being town, but disagree with your Skitter scum read, consensus nominations tend to be town and nothing in her ISO sticks out as scummy to me.

I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari, and while I agree, I think it's odd that no one really seemed to push you two. It's too late in the day to do it now, but you two should've been leading wagons imo, that would've given everyone plenty of info seeing who would push who and if your wagons would naturally dissipate. If you were both town, I believe scum would see you two as the optimal push on Day 2, and if I'm right on NK15 being town then scum likely would've backed him when he scum cased the two of you. I just don't see how there could be zero momentum towards wagoning either of you if you're both town and part of the coalition.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

Not sure how this isn't a choice.

[Aristeia]

how does Datisi's elim clear fire?

The way Fire played it felt unaligned. They added pressure that wasn't necessary if they were partnered, and it wouldn't indicate associatives between them if Fire just voted out Blood. The mad scramble to flip Datisi at the last couple hours shouldn't have happened if the team was Datisi/Fire.

Then again, we're on Day 4 now and it wasn't NK15. Also wasn't Skitter apparently, which I didn't expect since I did town lock her but I don't understand why she was killed.

I don't understand.

Fire didn't vote Datisi until like the last minute when Datisi was at 3 votes[roden, me, std] and BH/Skitter are likely to vote for Datisi, I don't really see how fire voting for Datisi means anything atp.

Because he put Datisi in hammer range instead of just voting out Blood earlier when he had the chance.

1] Putting Datisi in "hammer range" doesn't mean anything because Datisi was at 3 votes and skitter/blood hail had both not voted for Datisi yet, Blood Hail obviously has no issue with voting for Datisi and Skitter had unvoted Blood Hail and I kind of doubt she votes for BH after BH offered to self-vote himself off to resolve the 1v1.

2] "voting out bloodhail when he had the chance"

like blood hail wagon at peak was at 4 [nk15, skitter, mena, datisi] - so 3 flipped townies + datisi!mafia. Which means any partner of Datisi's had the oppurtunity to vote off Blood Hail, it's not really clearing if it's something p much anyone can do?

[fireisredsir]

Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

[fireisredsir]

1] Putting Datisi in "hammer range" doesn't mean anything because Datisi was at 3 votes and skitter/blood hail had both not voted for Datisi yet, Blood Hail obviously has no issue with voting for Datisi and Skitter had unvoted Blood Hail and I kind of doubt she votes for BH after BH offered to self-vote himself off to resolve the 1v1.

2] "voting out bloodhail when he had the chance"

like blood hail wagon at peak was at 4 [nk15, skitter, mena, datisi] - so 3 flipped townies + datisi!mafia. Which means any partner of Datisi's had the oppurtunity to vote off Blood Hail, it's not really clearing if it's something p much anyone can do?

fwiw i think these are fine points and i agree that my datisi vote is not clearing and don't really expect anyone to think it is

i do think my initial reaction to bloodhail's entrance would have been different as scum tho unless i was super confident in my ability to get him to townread me and survive elo (which i don't really think i would be)

[Aristeia]

what would you do as scum?

[Aristeia]

hi bloodhail!! good to see u hope you're town

like I dun see why scum!you can't react like this?

[fireisredsir]

my reaction to seeing him was to let myself reset my read a little bit and listen to his fresh perspective and encourage his solve which i don't think i would want to do as scum, id be nervous that he'd catch us

[Aristeia]

ok so if you're scum and you're nervous he catches you, then what do you do about it?

[fireisredsir]

ok looking at my own posts i guess i pushed back more on his datisi read than i thought i did lol

internally at least i was open to it and liked his direction

[fireisredsir]

ok so if you're scum and you're nervous he catches you, then what do you do about it?

idk focus somewhere else maybe and try not to let him be the spotlight of attention

prob bring up mena being inactive or something

[Aristeia]

like the way I see the game state there

we're at 3-3 Mena/Irrel

me/datisi/you are not voting

Datisi is aiming to vote Irrel because he has a rock hard townread of Mena chiseled in stone.

You're aiming to vote for Mena because your trajectory is that his confidence is unlike KTane because its not backed up by an actual case.

That's fine for a scumteam of you/dats to do atp because its T v T and you it doesn't matter where I end up voting.

But when bloodhail replaces in, locktowns mena right away and votes Datisi, what are you supposed to do atp? You can't exactly switch sides in the 1v1 off Mena back to Bloodhail to chainsaw for Datisi, you're just kind of awkwardly telling him that Mena is the better elim but you can't really convince him.

[Roden]

how does Datisi's elim clear fire?

The way Fire played it felt unaligned. They added pressure that wasn't necessary if they were partnered, and it wouldn't indicate associatives between them if Fire just voted out Blood. The mad scramble to flip Datisi at the last couple hours shouldn't have happened if the team was Datisi/Fire.

Then again, we're on Day 4 now and it wasn't NK15. Also wasn't Skitter apparently, which I didn't expect since I did town lock her but I don't understand why she was killed.

I don't understand.

Fire didn't vote Datisi until like the last minute when Datisi was at 3 votes[roden, me, std] and BH/Skitter are likely to vote for Datisi, I don't really see how fire voting for Datisi means anything atp.

Because he put Datisi in hammer range instead of just voting out Blood earlier when he had the chance.

1] Putting Datisi in "hammer range" doesn't mean anything because Datisi was at 3 votes and skitter/blood hail had both not voted for Datisi yet, Blood Hail obviously has no issue with voting for Datisi and Skitter had unvoted Blood Hail and I kind of doubt she votes for BH after BH offered to self-vote himself off to resolve the 1v1.

2] "voting out bloodhail when he had the chance"

like blood hail wagon at peak was at 4 [nk15, skitter, mena, datisi] - so 3 flipped townies + datisi!mafia. Which means any partner of Datisi's had the oppurtunity to vote off Blood Hail, it's not really clearing if it's something p much anyone can do?

1. The hammer range actually matters a lot, there was barely any time left and nearly everyone was doubting that Datisi would actually flip scum. Blood E-1 and Datisi E-2 with some convincing AtE from Datisi can save him and mis-elim the player pushing him the most.

2. The timing of it and who was actually around is what mattered at that point. Fire was around and NK15 wasn't, so I leaned more toward the latter being scum at the time.

[Aristeia]

the vote count was

Datisi 3 [Roden, Ari, STD]
Blood Hail 3[Nk15, Datisi, Blood Hail]
Ari 1 [Mena]
Mena 1[Fire]

Not Voting 1 [ Skitter]


I think it's pretty clear skitter/BH could swing to vote off Datisi

voting for BH is dangerous because BH can always unvote and it's unclear where hammer vote on BH comes from.

[fireisredsir]

like the way I see the game state there

we're at 3-3 Mena/Irrel

me/datisi/you are not voting

Datisi is aiming to vote Irrel because he has a rock hard townread of Mena chiseled in stone.

You're aiming to vote for Mena because your trajectory is that his confidence is unlike KTane because its not backed up by an actual case.

That's fine for a scumteam of you/dats to do atp because its T v T and you it doesn't matter where I end up voting.

But when bloodhail replaces in, locktowns mena right away and votes Datisi, what are you supposed to do atp? You can't exactly switch sides in the 1v1 off Mena back to Bloodhail to chainsaw for Datisi, you're just kind of awkwardly telling him that Mena is the better elim but you can't really convince him.

i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

my own read of the gamestate was yes, which is why i think its believable that roden could take that path as scum partners with datisi

[Roden]

Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

You...realize I played a part in that game state change, right?

Datisi was never going to die without my vote and my reads countering his. It would've just been Blood's single vote against Datisi, which he later backed out of anyway when he self-voted soon after. I think it's completely disingenuous to pretend Datisi was in serious danger before that point.

[Roden]

the vote count was

Datisi 3 [Roden, Ari, STD]
Blood Hail 3[Nk15, Datisi, Blood Hail]
Ari 1 [Mena]
Mena 1[Fire]

Not Voting 1 [ Skitter]


I think it's pretty clear skitter/BH could swing to vote off Datisi

voting for BH is dangerous because BH can always unvote and it's unclear where hammer vote on BH comes from.

Why does Blood unvote when he self voted to secure that an elim actually happens? He was pushing Datisi harder than anyone and even he didn't think Datisi would get voted out over him.

[Aristeia]

i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

If you/datisi were capable of making decisions quickly as scum I think you probly elim relly when Mena hardpushes him and you can get them chained rather than wait for the game state to lurch out of your control thru replaceout.

[Aristeia]

the vote count was

Datisi 3 [Roden, Ari, STD]
Blood Hail 3[Nk15, Datisi, Blood Hail]
Ari 1 [Mena]
Mena 1[Fire]

Not Voting 1 [ Skitter]


I think it's pretty clear skitter/BH could swing to vote off Datisi

voting for BH is dangerous because BH can always unvote and it's unclear where hammer vote on BH comes from.

Why does Blood unvote when he self voted to secure that an elim actually happens? He was pushing Datisi harder than anyone and even he didn't think Datisi would get voted out over him.

he self voted when me/mena were shit fighting because he wanted to force elim between himself/datisi instead of having a distraction derail the thread.

that was when there were only 2 votes on Datisi between himself and you.

when there are three votes on datisi, it makes datisi a more viable elimination than himself - and I assume he would prefer to eliminate Datisi to eliminating himself to resolve the 1v1.

[Aristeia]

i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

If you/datisi were capable of making decisions quickly as scum I think you probly elim relly when Mena hardpushes him and you can get them chained rather than wait for the game state to lurch out of your control thru replaceout.

I guess this isn't fair

a town player ragequitting isn't something forseeable. But Dats does have an issue with being decisive when he needs to be and he tends to wait too long for things. I don't really expect a team of you/him to be able to instantly decide on a strategy as soon as blood hail hits the thread.

I think you were probably disoriented and thinking about how to navigate things.

[fireisredsir]

Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

You...realize I played a part in that game state change, right?

Datisi was never going to die without my vote and my reads countering his. It would've just been Blood's single vote against Datisi, which he later backed out of anyway when he self-voted soon after. I think it's completely disingenuous to pretend Datisi was in serious danger before that point.

you realize that my point is not whether datisi was going to die that day, right? ive said that multiple times in multiple contexts. i think that as soon as bloodhail shows up with a scumread on datisi, that datisi was going to die even if bloodhail flipped first. there was enough lingering suspicion on datisi out there for that to be p much a certainty imo. and i think that if datisi + his partner recognized that, it makes sense for them to set up best for elo by having a suspicion on datisi as soon as possible

[fireisredsir]

i think i (together with datisi, probably) make the decision quickly as to whether bloodhail's read is going to have a lasting impact, aka is datisi going to die at some point now. if yes, then let bloodhail convince me asap so that i can be early on the datisi train. if no, then distract and either go all in to try to lim bloodhail or push elsewhere and don't give in to being convinced by bloodhail

If you/datisi were capable of making decisions quickly as scum I think you probly elim relly when Mena hardpushes him and you can get them chained rather than wait for the game state to lurch out of your control thru replaceout.

I guess this isn't fair

a town player ragequitting isn't something forseeable. But Dats does have an issue with being decisive when he needs to be and he tends to wait too long for things. I don't really expect a team of you/him to be able to instantly decide on a strategy as soon as blood hail hits the thread.

I think you were probably disoriented and thinking about how to navigate things.

ig if datisi has that issue then its understandable you would think that. i did feel like datisi was going to die at some point p quickly after bloodhail scumread him, and that was why i got super worried about mena bc if bloodhail was wrongtown and it was like mena/nk or something then we probably just lose

i think there's a lot of things that im not very good at but i do think that assessing gamestate and the possible directions it will go especially as it gets later in the game is something im decent at

[Roden]

Not sure how this isn't a choice.

bc the first one you say you are leaning towards voting irrel, and the second one is after irrel is gone, and bloodhail has come in with a scumread on datisi

the gamestate has changed significantly between those two, and by the point you made the datisi vote, he was likely to die even if bloodhail flipped first (assuming bh town)

at the time you voted datisi, voting irrel was not an option bc irrel was gone

You...realize I played a part in that game state change, right?

Datisi was never going to die without my vote and my reads countering his. It would've just been Blood's single vote against Datisi, which he later backed out of anyway when he self-voted soon after. I think it's completely disingenuous to pretend Datisi was in serious danger before that point.

you realize that my point is not whether datisi was going to die that day, right? ive said that multiple times in multiple contexts. i think that as soon as bloodhail shows up with a scumread on datisi, that datisi was going to die even if bloodhail flipped first. there was enough lingering suspicion on datisi out there for that to be p much a certainty imo. and i think that if datisi + his partner recognized that, it makes sense for them to set up best for elo by having a suspicion on datisi as soon as possible

This just isn't true, Mena was set up to go next after Elephant/Blood. It feels like you're just assuming Datisi rolls and dies in the Day phase which just, doesn't happen.

[fireisredsir]

if irrel dies before replacing out yea it goes to mena next prob

don't think thats true after bloodhail comes in

ofc datisi doesn't roll over but i think he dies

[Roden]

Who's pushing Datisi Day 3? Mena wanted Ari and STD. STD wants Mena and me. Skitter vs Datisi was a thing but she had doubts and wasn't make moves. Ari wants to trust Datisi. I don't really see you pushing Datisi the next day. Which just leaves me and NK, and scum can kill either one of us.

[fireisredsir]

i think between me/skitter/ari there was enough doubt there that if there was a green bloodhail flip after he said his one strong scumread was datisi that it would be enough

i know i would not be likely to go to mena in that situation. i know skitter wouldn't have. ari may have