Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

meh idk maybe im wrong on how things would have progressed

still don't think that you voting datisi is any more clearing than me voting datisi

and i don't really think either are

[bloodhail]

/shrug

i think it's ari

going to leave and not explain that for several hours

can talk about this with you if you want to

it is fine if you don't want to as well

I think skitter probably was killed to make me look bad because she was like "flip ari at elo"

well after 2 nights where i felt i should've eaten the nightkill i have not, and so i have to question why that is

that's the start of it, anyway

[Aristeia]

ok and scum!me doesnt nightkill you because?

[Save The Dragons]

I'm not going to just tunnel you roden for things mala did

I wanna talk about it

[bloodhail]

ok and scum!me doesnt nightkill you because?

because i had expressed thinking you were town on day 1 and while i wavered on day 2 i didn't want to flip you then and certainly was inconclusive in my reads

where i saw that skitter had had lingering paranoia on you throughtout the game and was more likely to turn on you out of fear

there's more to it than basic nka stuff but that's where i started. i'll get into it more but it's 12:30 am so i don't have time to explain stuff, but i've reread the game again and had some new thoughts

[Aristeia]

what does your read on me have to do with me willing to kill you at night?

[Aristeia]

I'd kill you at night regardless of whether you scumread me or townread me

[bloodhail]

well the main question is why roden/fire/std make those kills and i have a harder time seeing them doing that than you


but no matter - that was only the tip of my suspicion


what it comes down to is that i wanted to revisit my read on you, because while i could find reasons for townreading other people, when i revisited you i don't have much beyond "vibes". on day 1 i felt datisi was the scummiest in the coalition (and i was right) but it doesn't equate to an explicit townread. the biggest point in favor of ari (agreeing to be left out of the coalition) doesn't mean a whole lot since datisi flipped scum.

you could argue datisi wanting ari in the coalition is not the approach he'd take with a teammate, but i'd say it makes even less sense to take town-ari in, even if she's very pocketed, knowing the possibility he might have to push her (although there's all sorts of odd strategy i can see happening in the coalition phase, it's hard to read into)


so, on a reread what struck me is that datisi and ari both had townreads on each other that they wrote long justifications for that were kind of underdeveloped. 356 1201 (kind of) and 1702 are instances of this from datisi. ari's explanations for her read on datisi are stuff like 302, 1056 and 1595, which feel especially reach-y in their reasoning. the problem with this is it doesn't feel like it's displaying the requisite paranoia - in the large normal where datisi is scum ari was fooled pretty hard by him and i don't really get the sense she'd so willingly throw herself into his arms and not display skepticism, just because she's friends with datisi.

the lack of paranoia is also sharply demonstrated in 1705/1708 - ari offers a rebuttal to datisi's reasons for townreading her and says they're "not very good", but only makes a joking comment about being pocketed by him - it feels like there's no genuine curiosity toward datisi. it doesn't make much rational sense to respond that way - why would she not be more suspicious of him if his reasons for townreading her are not good?

on a similar note, i find the sequence of 1829 and 1843 to be suspect - ari says she's townreading datisi but is also setting up conditionals for if he's scum. this doesn't really compute to me, i don't think people generally set up possible scum associations for someone they're generally townreading - it reads more like a pre-emptive hedge.


i think if you look at their play day 2 it makes a lot of sense as them trying to powerwolf the game by mutually townreading each other. they both stay hands off on the irrel-mena fight and make vague pushes at skitter. ari mostly doesn't really consider datisi and doesn't really strongly look for scum in the coalition. i think her posting on day 2 is lazy, and i associate that more with scum not trying to make waves. you note that she tries to deflect attention from skitter vs datisi in 1436 toward the tvt fight. 1475 is a pretty gross overture toward voting the menalque wagon that is mostly leaning on people outside the coalition suspecting mena - reads like excuse-making for joining a mis-elim.


i also think there's pretty heavy scum motive in trying to deflect attention onto town-mena when i entered the game calling out datisi and trying to 1v1 him. i think that's relevant because i think that play more heavily fits a scum profile than other players who were less influential/more indecisive. i think trying to save a partner in a 1v1 by deflecting onto town is something scum-ari would do.

you can argue that yes, ari did eventually shift to push datisi, but that was after i went so far as to selfvote and mena had a toxic meltdown that made him likely unflippable. we also know

for a fact

that someone who is alive bussed datisi. so i think putting due skepticism of everyone alive through that lens is necessary - at some point datisi realized he was not endgaming and his partner had to bus. this is undisputable fact. so the question of timing becomes a relevant one. and i think datisi suddenly making gestures at suspecting ari feels antispewy in a way. i think that if you look back, datisi was much more keen on arguing against skitter when she was expressing suspicion of him than he was in arguing back against ari.

and this is kinda notable because earlier in the game he was defensive of the notion he was "townlocking" ari in 1868 - i think if it was a confident tmi read like the one on menalque he just rides with it. and this is

particularly

interesting because of this post:

yep, i reread the case and i feel like i could write another wall on why i don't think the reasons are Good but i also don't really think that would be much helpful for anyone

Okay for the sake of this conversation which if skitter/ari is more likely scum fypov

skitter

it's like, i think there are way more things that i can point out being +town for ari than i can for skitter. yes i know most of my reasons got shot down as bad but i don't think they all are. i don't think scum!ari plays d1 the way she did and i don't think she offers to sheep and be out of the coalition unless she's like, 100% sure her partner is already inside. and if that's the case, then

her partner has to be within you/skitt i think, which means it's better to flip there first either way then re-eval ari after the flip

i know i'm town. i know skitter is town. i think the way datisi tries to deflect from ari here is decently likely to be partner-indicative.

[bloodhail]

lol low effort alt

[bloodhail]

there's stuff about how i've felt the way she's played d3/d4 that makes sense from a scum pov but that's more minor/vibe-y stuff that is less worth elaborating on because it's somewhat speculative

[Aristeia]

I think you're spending a lot of time thinking about things when it's fairly obviously to me that if I were scum I would just power wolf instead of whatever this angsty rom com version of me is.

[Aristeia]

i also think there's pretty heavy scum motive in trying to deflect attention onto town-mena when i entered the game calling out datisi and trying to 1v1 him. i think that's relevant because i think that play more heavily fits a scum profile than other players who were less influential/more indecisive. i think trying to save a partner in a 1v1 by deflecting onto town is something scum-ari would do.

it would be significantly easier for me to just mislim you and then chain mena on d3 rather than try to start a wagon on mena from 0.

also as scum I mostly just townread mena because it's not worth the omgus from him to push him esp when he's busy tunneling townies.

[bloodhail]

I think you're spending a lot of time thinking about things when it's fairly obviously to me that if I were scum I would just power wolf instead of whatever this angsty rom com version of me is.

by any decent indication that looks like what you were doing

i also think there's pretty heavy scum motive in trying to deflect attention onto town-mena when i entered the game calling out datisi and trying to 1v1 him. i think that's relevant because i think that play more heavily fits a scum profile than other players who were less influential/more indecisive. i think trying to save a partner in a 1v1 by deflecting onto town is something scum-ari would do.

it would be significantly easier for me to just mislim you and then chain mena on d3 rather than try to start a wagon on mena from 0.

also as scum I mostly just townread mena because it's not worth the omgus from him to push him esp when he's busy tunneling townies.

you didn't have the trajectory on irrel to be able to pull it off and if you swapped to pushing me after i come into the game gunning for datisi it's bad optics for you

[bloodhail]

also you're not solving right now, just interjecting into the argument between fire and roden

[Aristeia]

I think you're spending a lot of time thinking about things when it's fairly obviously to me that if I were scum I would just power wolf instead of whatever this angsty rom com version of me is.

by any decent indication that looks like what you were doing

i also think there's pretty heavy scum motive in trying to deflect attention onto town-mena when i entered the game calling out datisi and trying to 1v1 him. i think that's relevant because i think that play more heavily fits a scum profile than other players who were less influential/more indecisive. i think trying to save a partner in a 1v1 by deflecting onto town is something scum-ari would do.

it would be significantly easier for me to just mislim you and then chain mena on d3 rather than try to start a wagon on mena from 0.

also as scum I mostly just townread mena because it's not worth the omgus from him to push him esp when he's busy tunneling townies.

you didn't have the trajectory on irrel to be able to pull it off and if you swapped to pushing me after i come into the game gunning for datisi it's bad optics for you

optics don't matter to me

[Aristeia]

also you're not solving right now, just interjecting into the argument between fire and roden

?

I said since d3 that fire is the last scum

I'm not sure what more solving I am supposed to do

[bloodhail]

also you're not solving right now, just interjecting into the argument between fire and roden

?

I said since d3 that fire is the last scum

I'm not sure what more solving I am supposed to do

i asked you to explain it further and you haven't


i don't think the reasoning you laid out is remotely compelling - speculative guessing about datisi only having WIM with a partner he thinks is capable does very little for me

[Aristeia]

that's not solving

that's convincing you I am right

I am not sure I can actually convince you I am right

[Aristeia]

I think we have enough history where nothing I say to you is going to convince you I am right or that I am town.

but I think you respect my reads enough to sheep me after I'm dead.

so it makes very little sense for me to actually put much effort into casing fire.

[Aristeia]

I also wouldn't mind you ignoring my reads post my death either. I could always just be wrong? It is what it is.

[bloodhail]

I think we have enough history where nothing I say to you is going to convince you I am right or that I am town.

but I think you respect my reads enough to sheep me after I'm dead.

so it makes very little sense for me to actually put much effort into casing fire.

ok

[fireisredsir]

i think if you look at their play day 2 it makes a lot of sense as them trying to powerwolf the game by mutually townreading each other. they both stay hands off on the irrel-mena fight and make vague pushes at skitter. ari mostly doesn't really consider datisi and doesn't really strongly look for scum in the coalition.

this is slightly a sticking point for me actually, one of the main reasons i started to suspect datisi is that after coalition failure it felt like he was amplifying and supporting ari's push onto skitter while letting her do most of the work, and mostly just being kinda nitpicky about her progressions. it's sort of a strange direction to take as partners, bc it wasn't ever likely to succeed, and draws a lot of attention to datisi. it really just felt like hiding behind a townie to me

[fireisredsir]

the problem with this is it doesn't feel like it's displaying the requisite paranoia - in the large normal where datisi is scum ari was fooled pretty hard by him and i don't really get the sense she'd so willingly throw herself into his arms and not display skepticism, just because she's friends with datisi.

the lack of paranoia is also sharply demonstrated in 1705/1708 - ari offers a rebuttal to datisi's reasons for townreading her and says they're "not very good", but only makes a joking comment about being pocketed by him - it feels like there's no genuine curiosity toward datisi. it doesn't make much rational sense to respond that way - why would she not be more suspicious of him if his reasons for townreading her are not good?

im also not very sure that this makes ari more likely to be scum

i feel like if she was playing wanting to townread datisi but had some lingering paranoia that is more or less how i would expect her to behave

i don't think it makes her more likely to be town really, but i think its not a very strong point for me since that's just kinda their dynamic

[bloodhail]

i think if you look at their play day 2 it makes a lot of sense as them trying to powerwolf the game by mutually townreading each other. they both stay hands off on the irrel-mena fight and make vague pushes at skitter. ari mostly doesn't really consider datisi and doesn't really strongly look for scum in the coalition.

this is slightly a sticking point for me actually, one of the main reasons i started to suspect datisi is that after coalition failure it felt like he was amplifying and supporting ari's push onto skitter while letting her do most of the work, and mostly just being kinda nitpicky about her progressions. it's sort of a strange direction to take as partners, bc it wasn't ever likely to succeed, and draws a lot of attention to datisi. it really just felt like hiding behind a townie to me

meh she made her own point about how if townies are fighting each other she doesn't need to do anything and that felt like what was happening

it's also not strange whatsoever if skitter is literally the only player in the game who has an actual correct scumread

[Aristeia]