Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[fireisredsir]

ok i think this sequence is really significant so i wanted to put it together to have it in one place

Spoiler: sequence from coalition forming

skitter wants skitt/mena/irrel/std as core and is deciding who else to include, considering one of ari/dats

I kinda think scum is in fire, mala, nk15
Which kinda makes me think i have to include one of ari/dats

would like greater explanation of this please

Which bit? I see no strong reason to townread fire/mala/nk15. That's 3 players, with 6 remaining. If i exclude those 3 i need to include one of ari/dats to get to 5

(And my current coalition i think is exactly pl - fire/mala/nk15 - ari/dats)

skitter considers if i might be town, maybe

ig ari fwiw:
i do understand your point. like rn i'm kinda focusing on the 'borderline' reads and who i can stomach putting in the coalition most easily, and i'm not really focusing on my biggest scumreads at all
but tbf to fire, my biggest scumreads also aren't really in the coalition to begin with, so i'm not super concerned about them at this moment

but if my biggest scumread were someone who was relatively widely townread and it looked likely they would get in, i can understand being v. concerned around said scumread, because from my pov we wouldn't insta-win if they did indeed get in

so like i'm not particularly convinced this is town-fire, but focusing on irrel doens't inherently bother me or make me scumread him

only including these cause i feel like they're kinda towny and may have affected people's read on me in the moment

yes that would be a misinterpretation then and its maybe my bad for not giving you a super clear "your answer is x". but yea that's not at all what i was saying. my answer at the time was mala, but it seemed like there was an implied question/confusion (not just in that quote but in the surrounding context) of "I don't get why you're pushing the people you're pushing" so i wanted to explain why i was focusing on irrel despite him not being my strongest scumread

ig cause you said "strongest scumread that you would 100% not want to be on the coalition"

and like

strongest scumread was mala

but strongest WANT was irrel, and the reason why my wanting/caring/focusing was more on irrel was cause he was more likely to make it in, so my level of caring about pushing him out was stronger. no need to care about pushing mala out bc she was already out. but that had no effect on my scumread, just on my level of focus

-snip spoiler of my posts on irrel-

main points summarized:

1) the big thing is that it feels like he cares more about looking towny than about actually doing pro-town things

2) his responses to peoples suspicions about him have felt slimy to me, like he is dodging the point and trying to make it about something else in a way that feels deliberate. he has done this multiple times

3) i think his tone in responses as well has felt like he is frustrated that he isn't getting as much credit as he expected to from doing things that look surface-level towny. this frustration seems more likely to come from scum than town to me

4) his positioning in general and the way that he chooses to engage with different people seems dependent on what benefits him rather than coming from a genuine town solvy mindset

5) not really a key point, but i did read some previous games and he is well in his scumrange, and he is capable of making towny-looking progressions and being proactive as scum, so i don't think people should be townreading him for that despite his complaints otherwise

std:

ok i haven't really played much with std but i did meta read a bunch of games when i was trying to sort him in large 238 d1. i felt like i got a decent feel for how he approaches games differently as town vs scum, and thought that he was likely scum that game, so that's why i TA checked him n1. unfortunately he was traitor so i got a false inno

i feel somewhat hesitant to even try to justify this read bc i don't think im going to explain it very well but whatever

basically i feel like there is a certain energy that he has when town, like he is generally excited to solve the game and also just... wants to be there. he usually has reads that it feels like he really cares about, or even if he doesn't exactly, he still is trying to work with people and help move the game forward

as scum he has fine read progressions and etc and still can joke around and whatnot but he lacks that town energy. he seems content to be a background character and pop up occasionally with a Good Post, and yet not really drive things. when i read posts that he makes as scum i picture him making a face and being like "ugh do i have to do this".

here is a recent scumgame that i feel is illustrative:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... lect[]=629
and a towngame:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13237692

these were just the first ones i saw but i think p much any of them would fit imo

i think his iso this game looks way closer to his usual scumgame. ive thought that since like his first 3 posts so maybe im confbiased idk, and maybe he's just lacking energy due to non-alignment-related reasons, but idk its still the read i have

if anyone who has played with him more than me thinks that this take is way off then im willing to reconsider

skitter says she's kinda liking me more

My wife sprained her ankle today so I'll be taking care of the kids more this week so I'll be posting less, @everyone

oh no i hope she's OK!!!

~

also i'm kinda liking fire more now idk
i'm worried i'm townreading someone i shouldn't be

ari has a similar reaction (she was pushing me previously), says i might be right, and offers to sheep skitter

mb fire's just right i dunno now :<

i'll be happy to sheep whatever you decide to skitter <3

brain feel mushy

also would prefer we get a decision in b4 we get 3 days on the clock.

skitter says she's thinking about adding dats to her core

eaving BOTH my scum partner and myself out of the coalition just KNOWING it'll get me so widely townread I end up in the coalition even though one player is tunneling me

tbf i don't think this is crazy - even if you leave yourself out of it now:
- there's enuf people townreading u that u might get it anyways
- approaching deadline you could very easily be like 'uuuuuhhhhh we need a coalition and a lot of people are healing me so i'll add myself'

it's not like you have no chance of getting in it

pedit my brain is mushy too >.>
i think rn i'm healing me/irrel/mena std and am thinking abt adding dats
is there anyone who should be there that isn't / do you strongly oppose to any of these?

ari doesn't oppose that

is there anyone who should be there that isn't / do you strongly oppose to any of these?

I don't have any objections to that.

I think you probably have a better read on mena than I do.

skitter continues with that, and then offers to put ari in

maybe. it's been a while and he's fooled me a few times
but i'm getting Good Vibes rn at least

and i think i townerad him more than i townread a lot of other people here

man this deadline is kinda short

i'd ideally probably want some more time to ruminate but given that we're running low on time given everything we need to do i'm leaning towards me/dats/irrel/std/mena
idk who i'd even go after if that fails tho

pedit @ari

on reflection, i could probably add ari on the condition that if she doesn't like literally solve the game and is alive in elo she gets flipped
(again sorry <3 i have to cover my bases!)

ari wants to consolidate, and doesn't want to be in (in this case dats is being included though)

I have some thoughts on where to push if your coalition fails skitts.

I think its probly best to consolidate and push something through rather than keep waiting?

best case scenario maybe your coalition works and we just win

ok HEAL: dats

if this is wrong let's blame the short deadline

on reflection, i could probably add ari on the condition that if she doesn't like literally solve the game and is alive in elo she gets flipped
(again sorry <3 i have to cover my bases!)

hehe I might actually prefer being out of coalition so if it fails I can be conftowned since mala is probly almost always scum here

near the end, ari is def acting how she prob would if she were partners with datisi -- pushing to end the day on skitter's coalition with datisi in it, saying that she herself wants to be outside of it. but i still think that at the point at which she says she will sheep skitter, skitter has not decided who she wants to add to her core. and i feel like there was at least a chance that she would decide that i had gotten towny enough that she would want me in over ari/dats, both of whom she's suspicious of. she didn't, and ended up putting datisi in, but ari can't know that for sure at the time she says she'll sheep.

does scum ari take that risk? maybe she is just confident that skitter will stick to her earlier plan and put in one of ari/dats. but idk, it just seems like a big gamble to me when it isn't really necessary to do so

[fireisredsir]

to be clear i do think it could be ari there's just points of the game that im having trouble seeing from that perspective and thats holding me back

[fireisredsir]

speaking of ari offering to sheep skitter, im also curious if this is meaningful to you at all (skitter and ari both town here):

Spoiler: from previous game

Subject: Micro 1052: Lake Melancholy [END]

Also i just want to generally say i wasnt really a fan of the overall tone from the past few days

I promise to be extremely nice and sheep you regardless of what this flips

I feel like i swapped ceph and dwlee at some point
I'm probably going to have to figure out if ari belongs in there too i guess

I'm town because if I was scum I would never commit myself to sheeping you

It is terrible for thread control

and this game, ari offers to sheep skitter, and then:

Which is a pretty stupid thing to do if you've dropped Dats!scum from the coalition and you're sitting with Irrel/Mena/STD all town in a coalition and you're just trying to fill the last spot no?

I am literally ceding all form of thread control to you and offering to stick behind with the people I scumread. If at any point you decide hey I want to add ___ to my list wouldn't I pretty much be going along with it there?

not actually very sure what to make of this, i kinda townread it since i was unsure if she would mirror herself that hard as scum but maybe thats dumb

[Aristeia]

I mostly offered to sheep skitter this game because she was nice enough to defer to me in Lake M and me being assertive in that game was unpleasant for both of us.

[fireisredsir]

while reading 1195 again i can kinda see your point how if she were scum with datisi it would be important for her to discredit skitter there

but like i also kinda think she successfully discredited skitter there? like i still agree with the post, especially noting that after the earlier progression i quoted (which she talks about), skitter then removes dats, and ari is still willing to sheep her. i think at that point its very believable that i could get towny enough to make it in

[Save The Dragons]

i like the points in 2757

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

i don't know if i like the "scum me would do this" argument but it also seems believable.

roden just giving up seems a little dramatic. i don't know if it's a ploy to get tr or if it's genuine, especially since it seems to be me who's somehow singlehandedly going to off him somehow

fire i'm not sure about just now because ari's going for him and he's not going for her, i could see a scum!fire wanting to follow a bh onto ari but i could also see a scum!fire wanting to try and convince ari to tr him by wking her. but maybe he's town and just doesn't believe in the case against her, i dunno.

i'll try to be less hedgy in the future. i don't think it's bh, i really didn't think it was irrel ever so i think that's the only place i'm not willing to consider.

[bloodhail]

to be clear i do think it could be ari there's just points of the game that im having trouble seeing from that perspective and thats holding me back

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

what i'm paranoid of is this: if ari is scum, this is the last day it's possible for me to catch her. if we vote roden and he's town then ari kills me and gets an f3 she's been setting up for 2 days and probably wins it.

you can say this is overly reactionary or whatever but i know this is something i cant kick the can down the road on.

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

meh, those arguments never do a lot for me unless it's some very specific tactic but i think there were plenty of reasons pushing me in that spot would be akin to suicide for scum

roden just giving up seems a little dramatic. i don't know if it's a ploy to get tr or if it's genuine, especially since it seems to be me who's somehow singlehandedly going to off him somehow

he has reacted to pressure dramatically as town in other games so it's not really out of the question

[Aristeia]

[fireisredsir]

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

meh, those arguments never do a lot for me unless it's some very specific tactic but i think there were plenty of reasons pushing me in that spot would be akin to suicide for scum

what is this referring to? idk how this follows from that quote

[fireisredsir]

ari what are your thoughts on bloodhail's alignment

[Aristeia]

i am fine losing to him if he is mafia

the datisi/relly interactions where relly lost his shit and pressed rep out look very unaligned

[bloodhail]

as time goes on i've been getting more paranoid it's ari. i think she's really convincing though, and i feel i have more reason to tr her than sr her. i'll try to take a closer look.

meh, those arguments never do a lot for me unless it's some very specific tactic but i think there were plenty of reasons pushing me in that spot would be akin to suicide for scum

what is this referring to? idk how this follows from that quote

oh whoops i botched that quote

tha was meant to be in response to this line:

i don't know if i like the "scum me would do this" argument but it also seems believable.

[Aristeia]

not saying the rep out is ai

the interactions right before it look very unaligned

[Aristeia]

i am fairly sure i could push u in that spot

flip you

flip mena next day

and flip skitter for the hat trick

if i were mafia

[Aristeia]

possibly arrogant

but probably true

[fireisredsir]

do you think you would do that? i thought you were all about flipping people who are easy to flip

[Aristeia]

i have to flip in the coalition so i would go by order of easiest to hardest

[bloodhail]

i am fairly sure i could push u in that spot

flip you

flip mena next day

and flip skitter for the hat trick

if i were mafia

r u regretting u didnt

[Aristeia]

I have no regrets

[Aristeia]

I guess I do regret losing my temper with mena at the end there

I do kind of wish that didn't happen.

[Aristeia]

what i'm paranoid of is this: if ari is scum, this is the last day it's possible for me to catch her. if we vote roden and he's town then ari kills me and gets an f3 she's been setting up for 2 days and probably wins it.

I do want to say that if you won't listen to me on fire when i'm alive, you should at least elim me so you can listen to me after I'm dead.

elimming roden here is just icky

[bloodhail]

what i'm paranoid of is this: if ari is scum, this is the last day it's possible for me to catch her. if we vote roden and he's town then ari kills me and gets an f3 she's been setting up for 2 days and probably wins it.

I do want to say that if you won't listen to me on fire when i'm alive, you should at least elim me so you can listen to me after I'm dead.

elimming roden here is just icky

ok

[Aristeia]

ok

[fireisredsir]

bloodhail (or std, or whoever, idc) do you have any thoughts on the coalition forming, and how ari offered to sheep skitter at a time when it seemed very possible that skitter would want to try to leave ari/dats out, and most likely would if she found another town?

do you think its not accurate or that im missing something? do you think she does take that gamble as scum? do you think there wasn't as much risk as i think there was?

[bloodhail]

bloodhail (or std, or whoever, idc) do you have any thoughts on the coalition forming, and how ari offered to sheep skitter at a time when it seemed very possible that skitter would want to try to leave ari/dats out, and most likely would if she found another town?

do you think its not accurate or that im missing something? do you think she does take that gamble as scum? do you think there wasn't as much risk as i think there was?

i need to reread that section to see how it was all going down