Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Roden]

i dunno i think gth it's just roden at this point? but i dunno what to think anymore i just townread everyone else more

I dunno how much more unsure I could be about a scumread than this post

I literally just quoted several posts where you kept saying you think it's me

There's no reason to think you're unsure if you keep repeating the same scum read all game and aren't doing anything to reevaluate

[Save The Dragons]

and aren't doing anything to reevaluate

I kinda think voting for another person yesterday and not voting for you now kinda disproves this

[Roden]

I don't recall you reevaluating me and I don't see it in your ISO.

You also said you only voted Ari because Blood convinced you to.

[fireisredsir]

this is bloodhail's most recent summary of his read on you:

i don't know that it's rock solid, but i have the nagging gut feeling that says it might not be roden

this is the closest he ever came to saying you were town. mostly he originally had you as the main datisi partner left after nk15, and later became "not convinced" it was you. meanwhile he said that std was basically never scum in his eyes, and in 2648 he says "it's not impossible for [fire] to be scum but id be pretty impressed". he did agree to sheep ari at eod but he was kinda blustering before that so eh

regardless

you can stop saying that he townread you now. thanks. at the very least i think it's clear that he townread me and std more, with the exception of where he said he would sheep ari

[fireisredsir]

1) WIFOM to bring two people who I know will vote me vs the one who town read me?
2) I'm sorry, can you explain why I don't take the chance that Blood might not vote me? As opposed to...taking the two people who I know will vote me?
3) Wouldn't scum!STD kill Blood since he had a higher chance of not voting me over you? Also why do you think I'm more likely to vote you over STD?

1) he didn't townread you. and we may or may not be voting you. you know that each of us scumread each other earlier in the game and we may fall back on that
2) WIFOM, or you think you can out-argue me and std and bloodhail is a lot scarier to deal with. he already caught one scum.
3) bloodhail almost certainly votes me or you over std. doesn't matter which one if std is scum. there are multiple paths open to scum!std though, he could also easily kill bloodhail since he's the towniest slot anyway and it sets him up okay in this 3p. and i mostly think you're more likely to vote me bc i think you're scum and i think thats the more viable path for scum!you to take, lol

[fireisredsir]

it also doesn't make a ton of sense for std to kill bloodhail bc bloodhail will vote either me or you over std so keeping him alive is a win unless he reassesses based on the weirdness of killing me/you but he doesn't like to reassess in elo so idk. tbh the kill was probably made bc surface level it makes the most sense for me to make and im the most viable miselim for you

it just seems like you're keeping your options open to see which of us has more of a possibility to turn on the other

These thoughts don't mesh with each other at all.

if it isn't clear, uh, no offense but i think you're not playing very well if you're scum here so what i would expect you to have done originally may not necessarily apply anymore since you are taking a bizarre approach

[fireisredsir]

I wouldn't say I'm treating you both the same though, I still think it's more likely you. There's a low chance it's STD, if only because for STD to be town he'd have to have zero correct reads this entire game and be borderline game throwing with his blind tunnel on me but refusing to vote me yesterday when I offered to be eliminated before ELo.

bc i am with my fam for memorial day and just wanted to check in to say that i will read and think and post in depth later

What if I told you I'm willing to hammer test you

??????????????????

[fireisredsir]

Fire why aren't you questioning STD's abrupt scum read and vote onto Ari?

STD why aren't you doing the same for Fire?

i recommend you drop this point because its not going to go anywhere

me and std yesterday both thought that you were more likely scum, but got convinced by bloodhail to vote ari

we had like the same trajectory p much

at least one of us is confirmed to be town

therefore it is not an inherently scummy trajectory

and therefore, me being town and having had that trajectory, i can understand how town!std could have had the same one. if std is town, he probably has the same experience

[fireisredsir]

will post thoughts on stuff not from this day phase tomorrow, i have a few things i wanna go over from both of you

[Roden]

this is bloodhail's most recent summary of his read on you:

i don't know that it's rock solid, but i have the nagging gut feeling that says it might not be roden

this is the closest he ever came to saying you were town. mostly he originally had you as the main datisi partner left after nk15, and later became "not convinced" it was you. meanwhile he said that std was basically never scum in his eyes, and in 2648 he says "it's not impossible for [fire] to be scum but id be pretty impressed". he did agree to sheep ari at eod but he was kinda blustering before that so eh

regardless

you can stop saying that he townread you now. thanks. at the very least i think it's clear that he townread me and std more, with the exception of where he said he would sheep ari

For the record, I don't think I played badly this game. I'm proud of myself for correctly reading Datisi and helping to turn Day 1 around, and that my original read on NK15 was correct and that my method for reading him is more solid I expected it to be. My presence in a potential ELo is just a detriment, and I don't want to argue with STD if it comes to it.

please don't throw in the towel by selfvoting

have you not seen my posts - i am not at all convinced it is you

i realize you're worried about getting tunneled by std here but let's pick up the pieces and try to figure things out, yeah?

i understand feeling like you're being tunneled can be irritating and you had to deal with very unusual circumstances this game but i'd like it if you tried your best here, all right?

Anyway.

[Roden]

1) WIFOM to bring two people who I know will vote me vs the one who town read me?
2) I'm sorry, can you explain why I don't take the chance that Blood might not vote me? As opposed to...taking the two people who I know will vote me?
3) Wouldn't scum!STD kill Blood since he had a higher chance of not voting me over you? Also why do you think I'm more likely to vote you over STD?

1) he didn't townread you. and we may or may not be voting you. you know that each of us scumread each other earlier in the game and we may fall back on that
2) WIFOM, or you think you can out-argue me and std and bloodhail is a lot scarier to deal with. he already caught one scum.
3) bloodhail almost certainly votes me or you over std. doesn't matter which one if std is scum. there are multiple paths open to scum!std though, he could also easily kill bloodhail since he's the towniest slot anyway and it sets him up okay in this 3p. and i mostly think you're more likely to vote me bc i think you're scum and i think thats the more viable path for scum!you to take, lol

1) He did. There are zero universes where I bring STD instead of Blood to ELo.
2) We're not doing this shit again.
3) If it's the most viable path to take then I bring the guy who said he votes you. What the fuck is this back and forth?

[Roden]

Holy shit. Every time I start to feel confident on who it is, the other one jumps in and scums it up.

[Roden]

it also doesn't make a ton of sense for std to kill bloodhail bc bloodhail will vote either me or you over std so keeping him alive is a win unless he reassesses based on the weirdness of killing me/you but he doesn't like to reassess in elo so idk. tbh the kill was probably made bc surface level it makes the most sense for me to make and im the most viable miselim for you

it just seems like you're keeping your options open to see which of us has more of a possibility to turn on the other

These thoughts don't mesh with each other at all.

if it isn't clear, uh, no offense but i think you're not playing very well if you're scum here so what i would expect you to have done originally may not necessarily apply anymore since you are taking a bizarre approach

Maybe it's because I'm not scum?? Literally no action I've taken this game makes sense if I was scum, every post I've made is bizarre and self-defeating if I'm scum. I've been saying this shit all game and even begged to die yesterday to avoid this exact situation.

Like...I seriously don't understand this.

[Roden]

I wouldn't say I'm treating you both the same though, I still think it's more likely you. There's a low chance it's STD, if only because for STD to be town he'd have to have zero correct reads this entire game and be borderline game throwing with his blind tunnel on me but refusing to vote me yesterday when I offered to be eliminated before ELo.

bc i am with my fam for memorial day and just wanted to check in to say that i will read and think and post in depth later

What if I told you I'm willing to hammer test you

??????????????????

What?

[Roden]

Fire why aren't you questioning STD's abrupt scum read and vote onto Ari?

STD why aren't you doing the same for Fire?

i recommend you drop this point because its not going to go anywhere

me and std yesterday both thought that you were more likely scum, but got convinced by bloodhail to vote ari

we had like the same trajectory p much

at least one of us is confirmed to be town

therefore it is not an inherently scummy trajectory

and therefore, me being town and having had that trajectory, i can understand how town!std could have had the same one. if std is town, he probably has the same experience

This logic doesn't pan out at all if you consider both of you took the "anyone but me" approach, which is universal to both alignments.

[fireisredsir]

What?

why would you want to hammer test me if you think its me with a low chance of it being std?

[Save The Dragons]

the kill makes more sense coming from fire, i don't know why roden leaves me alive if his view of the game is i'm heavily scumreading him other than it might look too obvious.

but it's possible that a scum!roden thought bloodhail would come to the correct conclusion and he picked people he thought he could manipulate better. but i don't know.

[Save The Dragons]

why does scum!fire defend ari when she gets heat yesterday

scum!fire probably knows he's going to vote ari if bloodhail and i push it, but he tries to stop it anyway, maybe to look good?

[fireisredsir]

im halfway through writing things up about reasons for town/scum of both std and roden and i just keep finding way more things for scum roden and town std than the other way around

like datisi play d1 makes a lot more sense paired with mala than with std, which i didn't actually fully notice before now

might just post the reasons i have now and leave it at that

[Save The Dragons]

Also the main reason I replaced in was because I saw it was Mala, and I knew from a recent town game of her's that she's been feeling off because of IRL stuff, so I town read the slot beforehand. After reading some of her posts this game, they seem very reminiscent of that game.

this is over explainy. Look at me, i'm town.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

it's interesting you decide on elephant when he's at 3 votes. but then...

i think the poe is probably datisi/mala/nk15 and i lean toward it being the first 2 names

VOTE: datisi

halfway thru the iso but feel confident enough to vote this now. will return to chat more but taking a break for dinner soonish

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

roden says he has similar reads to bloodhail when bloodhail suspects him. it could be handwavey to try and get attention off his slot. i could see this being a planned bus to make roden look good by being an early proponent of datisi's wagon. i think the plan could have changed here. i dunno. it's a weird thing to do if roden is actually partnered with datisi. so maybe roden has a point here?

Me not taking that path and instead resisting it should indicate that we aren't partners, as I would've just voted Elephant and let Datisi hammer.

i don't know how viable this actually is to dump both scum votes onto elephant. i think it would have looked suspicious. i was never voting elephant at that point.

Ngl, I wanted Datisi even before Blood replaced in but didn't think I could ever get him that late into Day 1. He has a better social game than me and is a master of AtE. Tbh I'm shocked he actually got voted out, even just a little bit of support from a team mate would've saved him imo.

That's the main reason I'm reevaluating my read on NK15, because while I think it's possible Fire bussed, I don't think the scum team was prepared for a last minute Datisi elim. I think it's just more likely he didn't get any help rather than him getting bussed.

i don't think this is true, it's clear now he was bussed though i suppose it wasn't clear at the time but if you knew about him being bussed because you did it, you could push this narrative to look less suspicious and cast shade on slots that didn't vote datisi or that voted late.

[fireisredsir]

things that stand out to me, std edition:

town:
1) skitter, irrel, and bloodhail townread him strongly. i think that deserves a good amount of weight. mena scumread him, but i don't think the case was very good, and mena bop'd himself to irrel anyway so i don't think that counts for much

2) the nks were on two of the people who townread him the strongest. he didn't need to keep his poe this wide, so it didn't really benefit him to make both of those kills. he could have left one alive probably

3) i think a lot of the things that he has shown this game are outside the range of what he has previously displayed being capable of as scum. i don't think its impossible that he leveled up his game here, but idk if i want to make that bet

4) he seemed genuinely a little upset that he didn't make it in the coalition, and didn't want to support the coalition that passed. don't expect him to fake that there if he's scum with datisi, since it may have resulted in skitter pushing harder to put him in there too

5) i think he has approached the last few days in a relatively towny way and hasn't felt like he really has a master plan or anything. maybe he doesn't need to bc he could just coast on the people townreading him, but if thats the case then why did he kill them?

scum:
1) i did have an early gutread on him as scum. meh. it went away eventually, but it is in the back of my mind

2) i don't think there's really anything that rules him out as a partner to datisi in their interactions

3) his vote on datisi was fairly late which ig surface level looks somewhat scummy, but i kinda think that if he already waited that long as a datisi partner he probably could just commit to not bussing. don't think its towny but its not that scummy to me imo

[fireisredsir]

things that stand out to me, roden edition:

town:
1) mala wanted to leave datisi out at a time when she was going to be left out. kinda meh, cause nobody was going to listen to her, and someone recently said she was getting decent at antispew

2) the nk on bloodhail is a little weird, i expected scum!roden to kill std and bet the game on bloodhail's willingness to sheep ari. different paths are possible, but im not really sure why he would choose this one aside from wifom or thinking me/std are easier to deal with

3) bloodhail said that mala responded more harshly to people scumreading her when she's town. i think that was somewhat supported by the meta he posted, but there were other elements that i felt were closer to her scum meta, so i don't really think its clearing

scum:
1) roden's switch from aiming towards voting irrel to voting datisi as soon as bloodhail shows up. this is probably the strongest thing for me, i just cannot see the way that switch happened as being town

2) play today is just... v scummy and lacks any cohesive town thought process

3) there are many times now where he has just stated things that are straight up provable lies and its getting harder to see that as being oblivious town, esp when he says that he reread at night

4) datisi went on a mission (around 343) to case std and irrel right after std posted a coalition without datisi/mala and irrel then sheeped it. he also pocketed me a bit when i started questioning irrel as well. clear scum motivation here to break them up a bit if paired with mala. less so if paired with std

5) mala said that she gets stronger as the game goes on as town. she didn't make it in the coalition, and i would expect her to have some new life after that, since she has a narrower poe to focus on and there isn't any immediate pressure on her. she instead lost motivation and didn't really do much. she also switched from scumreading datisi to townreading him as soon as the coalition failed which is super sketchy

[Save The Dragons]

if i'm just going on gut, it's roden

fireisred's vibes just seem townie while roden is more defensive and prickly. i feel like fireisred has done more to move the gamestate forward than roden or mala have.

it bothers me that ari and then bloodhail suggested it could be fire. ari convinced me in the beginning that fire could have been shady but now knowing for sure that was a real read she had and not scum!ari trying to get town!fire out of the coalition as an easy shot to clear the way for her and her partner

if fire is scum he did a good job of convincing me that he's town with his energy in the thread

if roden is scum he did a good job with the kills making them point to fire

i know roden is going to latch onto this and say i'm trying to kill him but i'm really sitting here trying to work it out and assuage my doubts but i don't think i'm going to vote confidently when i do vote.

[fireisredsir]

I think Mena is town.

why?

After reading Mena's ISO and getting a feeling for the game state, I don't think Mena vs Elephant is SvS. Mena switching from "kill STD" to "kill Rella -> Ari" after acknowledging he's the most likely elim today feels like a spew that would be harmful to his scum partner since I don't think it would be either of them in that scenario, which makes me think it's a genuine final reads list from a dying townie. I think their frustration with this Day phase is also genuine. Going back further, though I don't think STD is scum, I do think Mena's case on him came from a solvey mindset.

@Datisi:

Where's your head at? VCs aren't telling me anything about what you're thinking, you stuck to one coalition choice Day 1 and currently aren't voting anyone.

i have an iso >.> but basically, thinking mena is town for [meta reasons that seem to not vibe with anyone other than skitter], ari is town for the way she played d1. have been thinking skitter is most likely scum in the coalition for a while (but i've kinda liked her more recent posting i guess??? jury's still out), and getting increasingly nervous about irrel

outside the coalition, thinking fire is town but fuck if i know about the other three -- std is more likely to be town than the other two i guess but i am v low confidence on all of those

I actually did read your ISO, I just wanted an updated take since EoD is approaching and you've been fence sitting.

NK15 feels obvtown to me, he's too confident and tunneled to be scum, and everyone here is competent enough to coach him to not flail with his reads/solves going into Day 2. Fire is null to me only because they didn't seem to have the spotlight at all so far. I agree with STD likely being town, but disagree with your Skitter scum read, consensus nominations tend to be town and nothing in her ISO sticks out as scummy to me.

I've noticed while skimming that a lot of people think there's at least one scum between you and Ari, and while I agree, I think it's odd that no one really seemed to push you two. It's too late in the day to do it now, but you two should've been leading wagons imo, that would've given everyone plenty of info seeing who would push who and if your wagons would naturally dissipate. If you were both town, I believe scum would see you two as the optimal push on Day 2, and if I'm right on NK15 being town then scum likely would've backed him when he scum cased the two of you. I just don't see how there could be zero momentum towards wagoning either of you if you're both town and part of the coalition.

I think I'm going to end up voting Elephant today, I just want to finish going through his ISO first. If I end up town reading him though then idk.

Oof, I finished going through Elephant's ISO then saw ten more pages crop up and that he replaced out. I came away with a town lean, and after catching up I think his replacement is town. Idk who Bloodhail is an alt of but I like their entrance, and us having similar reads after replacing in feels like a good sign that I'm on the right track.

VOTE: Datisi

Gonna go back and reply to some stuff.

quoting these two posts, again, for emphasis

this is still just really hard for me to see as town.

before bloodhail: vaguely says that there's probably 1 scum between datisi and ari, but wants to vote irrel (and the nk read is still probably tmi lol)

after bloodhail: says that irrel slot is now town, and is glad to see bloodhail agreeing with his reads (??), and votes datisi

that's just not a town progression. that's scum quickly trying to reposition after a replacement massively changes the gamestate

[Roden]

I'll respond when you guys actually talk to and question each other