Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Dwlee99]

this chart is stolen shamelessly from Andante in the last PYP:

Can I get this in a format I can paste into a spreadsheet

[Gamma Emerald]

this chart is stolen shamelessly from Andante in the last PYP:

825 should be added to that

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I agree titus probably town, less convinced about anyone else in that set

Why are you saying this? You ought to be aware of the last game.

think you'd pick something different as part of a scumteam

[Malakittens]

I am curious why Mala and Aristeia both have large powers of 2 (really it's quite impressive that 9/14 players submitted some power of 2 but almost certainly not meaningful)

I picked it because it’s my ambulance identifier for the agency.

[Klick]

weird how many people won't do a simple thought experiment in good faith

VOTE: ari

I hate numbers

This might be the first time I've laughed out loud at a Mafia game

[Klick]

8, 8, 512

[Bellaphant]

From the chart, it seems like it doesn't seem to matter massively on what numbers/powers specifically the scum team chose (even when scum only has one not blocked, it doesn't seem to massively affect win rate. Town have. Also seemed to win when a lot of numbers cancell out, but that info isn't great without knowing who submitted what choice and knocked each other out first.

I'm not really sure of the point of Ari's numbers question. I guess you can vaguely say 1,2 and 6 are 'scummy' numbers but it mainly feels like noise generation.

[Aristeia]

I'll either do something cool with the information or I won't.

Unless you think I'm going to somehow use this information to reverse engineer your gmail password and hack your back account I'm not sure what's the issue here.

[Aristeia]

like maybe you don't understand what I would do with the information.

That's fine

the scum likely don't understand either.

just do the exercise in good faith.

maybe i'll do something cool with it and maybe I won't. You won't know if you don't try!

[Bellaphant]

It looks like busy work. I hate set up spec at the best of times, it literally gives me anxiety.

But, 1, 7,8.

[humaneatingmonkey]

i want to know where ari will take her though experiment.

[Gamma Emerald]

8, 8, 512

VOTE: Klick
Your lip service shall be punished.

[Gamma Emerald]

I have a cool thought experiment I want to try.

Let's all write down which three numbers we would submit if we were running a scum team.

I will explain after everyone writes down their numbers how this will help us.

I will go first.

1, 3, 13

I would literally ask the scumpartners to pick for me because I'm sure someone else besides me has a winning strat

This is the best non-answer I’ve seen out of the responses, personally

[Aristeia]

It looks like busy work. I hate set up spec at the best of times, it literally gives me anxiety.

But, 1, 7,8.

ty

[Aristeia]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

[Gamma Emerald]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

What’s the difference?

[Ausuka]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

[Ausuka]

Open 853 - Pick Your Power X/Y: Hint of Something_Smart

moderator:

Datisi

|

backup moderator:

GeorgeBailey

|

designers:

Hoopla

,

the worst

,

Something_Smart

player list:

1. implosion
   
   
2. Harley Quinn
   
3. Gamma Emerald
   
   
4. Malakittens
   
   
5. Roden
   
   
6. Enchant
   
   
7. Dwlee99
   
   
8. humaneatingmonkey
   
   
9. Bellaphant
   
   
10. Ausuka
    
    
11. Klick
    
    
12. Aristeia
    
    
13. Save The Dragons
    
    
14. Titus

bold = confirmed, asterisk = prod, strike = replaced

alive players:

Spoiler:

1. implosion
   
2. Harley Quinn
   
3. Gamma Emerald
   
4. Malakittens
   
5. Roden
   
6. Enchant
   
7. Dwlee99
   
8. humaneatingmonkey
   
9. Bellaphant
   
10. Ausuka
    
11. Klick
    
12. Aristeia
    
13. Save The Dragons
    
14. Titus

dead players:

Spoiler:

1. nobody, for now.

events & votecounts:

Spoiler:

1. nothing, for now.

Spoiler: VoteCount Settings

this will exist at some point

if I were to pick the mafia draft I'd go something like 1, 19, 51

[Ausuka]

well actually a town did apparently pick 21 recently I missed that one, I think my point still makes sense though

I think this is actually the fewest number collisions that have ever happened in the draft in this setup - out of the 17 other runs of the game I see one that had 5 people colliding and one that had 6, but this takes the cake with only 4, and most of them had like... in the vicinity of 8-9 people who picked the same number as someone else.

This could theoretically be meaningful in some useful way but probably isn't.

Why do you think it isn't meaningful? I know it's difficult to draw concrete conclusions but isn't it at least worth looking at during RVS? It seems like a major anomaly to me

[Gamma Emerald]

I decided to do a quick check and it was SIMYK who picked 413 that one time
I’m gonna tease him about that a lil if I see him once more
Kinda miss him

[Aristeia]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

What’s the difference?

2-8-14 are numbers that were picked in this game, my previous numbers were not.

[Aristeia]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

Well I am using the chart that Andante posted in the previous PYP game.

It shows that out of 39 scum selections in 13 games - only one time has scum ever picked a number that is above 100 - I do not think the scum team would give up so much picking power to the townside and send more than 1 person to 100+ in number.

As we happen to have 4 players picking numbers above 100, I believe it is likely we have at most 1 scum and possibly none at all and it's a fairly fun way to narrow POE early.

[Aristeia]

I guess if you analyze the data another way, there have only been two large numbers [above 100] picked in 13 games and once it was mafia and once it was town so in a way you could say it's roughly 50/50 from that POV.

However strategically speaking I don't think it makes a lot of sense to have multiple mafia players pick large numbers. I guess it could be wifomy in a way.

[Bellaphant]

If they coordinate picks, then I see no reason why one large number on its own and two small is really worse, considering overlaps and blocking later. Like ...I don't think all three scum picked a big number but I'm not clearing anyone from that pile just based on a number

[Gamma Emerald]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

What’s the difference?

2-8-14 are numbers that were picked in this game, my previous numbers were not.

Why change to numbers that were picked? I don’t think anyone else submitted like that and you’re the one running the exercise. You’re the one making the rules!