Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Gamma Emerald]

Pagetop snipe

[Aristeia]

I just realized my own guess doesnt work because I just wrote down some numbers I'd pick instead of picking which ones are actually valid in the game :>

I would pick 2 - 8 - 14

What’s the difference?

2-8-14 are numbers that were picked in this game, my previous numbers were not.

Why change to numbers that were picked? I don’t think anyone else submitted like that and you’re the one running the exercise. You’re the one making the rules!

I think there's more information for analysis later by picking numbers that were picked

[Gamma Emerald]

That limits thought process tho

[Gamma Emerald]

Also I’m not changing my response to go with the numbers that were actually submitted this game

[Save The Dragons]

Me either

[Aristeia]

it'll be fun to see postgame who got closest to the actual mafia numbers

[Ausuka]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

Well I am using the chart that Andante posted in the previous PYP game.

It shows that out of 39 scum selections in 13 games - only one time has scum ever picked a number that is above 100 - I do not think the scum team would give up so much picking power to the townside and send more than 1 person to 100+ in number.

As we happen to have 4 players picking numbers above 100, I believe it is likely we have at most 1 scum and possibly none at all and it's a fairly fun way to narrow POE early.

As you noted in a later post, scum might have rarely done this but the same is true for town. I think that this game being so highly unusual makes most sense if it's a result of scum influence, since they're co-ordinating picks. Which is why I'm suspicious of the 'scum wouldn't pick numbers this high' narrative - my best bet is that there's 2 scum among these people, although I wouldn't rule out 3

If true this probably backfired on scum a little, since they were probably betting on town getting more duplicates than we ended up having. If you look at it from the perspective of 'usually there's a lot of duplicates and just not being in a duplicate leaves you fairly high on the list' it makes more sense as a scum strategy

[Aristeia]

and you think it's plausible that I am scum, I got my team to pick all high numbers, and then I decided in my first couple of posts to pretend we are all town for having high numbers?

[Ausuka]

Yeah

[Ausuka]

I mean don't get me wrong I see why that seems unlikely, but as you say there's a wifom element to it - 'scum wouldn't be so crazy as to do this, so it's impossible'

The facts are that the draft is highly unusual in a way that was already scum-indicative for high numbers imo, and you've been playing around it in a weird way

[Ausuka]

Outside the whole ari situation, I like Bella and Gamma the most so far - early days but they feel like they're sorting genuinely. Implo is my other scumread currently, he makes pretty good analysis posts about the draft but seems to be constantly playing it down - I can see town not placing much importance in the draft for sure, but something about the combination of insightful analysis and then not doing anything with it or pushing anyone pings me a little bit.

[Enchant]

I claim VT.

[Harley Quinn]

The whole math thing went over my head but I like Asuka so far.

[Gamma Emerald]

Ausuka, what’s your pfp supposed to be?

[Ausuka]

Ausuka, what’s your pfp supposed to be?

Ashe Bradley from Witch's Heart

[Gamma Emerald]

It looks like a Danganronpa character lol
Also what is this “Witch’s Heart”?

[Ausuka]

1, 4, 4

might be a scum claim answer

it's a bit like Danganronpa I guess? It's a murder mystery/visual novel thing

[Gamma Emerald]

Is it on Steam

[Ausuka]

sidenote: I have fat fingers so if you ever see me quote something that doesn't make sense in context I probably pressed Q+ by accident

Also Gamma if you want to talk more about witch's heart we should probably do it outside the gamethread haha

[Enchant]

I have a cool thought experiment I want to try.

Let's all write down which three numbers we would submit if we were running a scum team.

I will explain after everyone writes down their numbers how this will help us.

I will go first.

1, 3, 13

One which i think not be picked by anyone else.

[Klick]

The problem I have with this exercise is that I don't think what I'd pick if I thought about it right now would actually match what I'd pick if I was making the decision with stakes attached

I'm also biased by knowing the results of this draft already and choosing a number after seeing that is inevitably going to affect my choices

[Datisi]

1

[Datisi]

2

[Datisi]

7

[Datisi]

3