Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Datisi]

vote count 1.01

with 14 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-06-14 01:30:00).

yeet

Aristeia [3]:

humaneatingmonkey, Bellaphant, Ausuka

Titus [1]:

Roden

Ausuka [1]:

Dwlee99

Klick [1]:

Gamma Emerald

not voting [8]:

implosion, Harley Quinn, Malakittens, Enchant, Klick, Aristeia, Save The Dragons, Titus

mod notes

~ down the rockefeller street
~ everyone has confirmed!

flavour

[Bellaphant]

I had to double check I'd not written one of ausuka's posts. Them, delete and probably gamma are on my no elim pile for today.

[Roden]

Who's delete?

[Harley Quinn]

Who's delete?

I agree, we shouldn’t delete delete.

[Harley Quinn]

this chart is stolen shamelessly from Andante in the last PYP:

And what does it mean? It’s from different games.

[humaneatingmonkey]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

[Harley Quinn]

I'm townbinning everyone with a number above 100

we are masons as far as I am concerned.

if this turns out to be tragically wrong later it's not my fault

I was looking at earlier drafts from the wiki page to try and win this draft (2 gets picked surprisingly rarely) and I found that people who pick high numbers are scum surprisingly often, like about 50% of the time iirc. In recent games, I think skitter and saskeismyyaoikismesis were the only ones to pick >20 numbers, and both flipped scum. The fact that so many people did it in this game (usually there's only 1 or 2) makes me suspicious

VOTE: Aristeia

Well I am using the chart that Andante posted in the previous PYP game.

It shows that out of 39 scum selections in 13 games - only one time has scum ever picked a number that is above 100 - I do not think the scum team would give up so much picking power to the townside and send more than 1 person to 100+ in number.

As we happen to have 4 players picking numbers above 100, I believe it is likely we have at most 1 scum and possibly none at all and it's a fairly fun way to narrow POE early.

As you noted in a later post, scum might have rarely done this but the same is true for town. I think that this game being so highly unusual makes most sense if it's a result of scum influence, since they're co-ordinating picks. Which is why I'm suspicious of the 'scum wouldn't pick numbers this high' narrative - my best bet is that there's 2 scum among these people, although I wouldn't rule out 3

If true this probably backfired on scum a little, since they were probably betting on town getting more duplicates than we ended up having. If you look at it from the perspective of 'usually there's a lot of duplicates and just not being in a duplicate leaves you fairly high on the list' it makes more sense as a scum strategy

Okay, I think I’m finally getting this. Idk if Ari is scum but I don’t think this analysis is particularily useful. There’s also plenty of town motivation to try to choose early.

[Ausuka]

It's true that town can pick high numbers as well, and we know at least one player did. The reason I'm suspicious of the high numbers is because there's way more of them than usual. Since town pick individually and scum co ordinate, an anomaly like this is likely to be caused by scum, at least in part - you wouldn't expect town choices to be too different in any given game, whereas scum choices are dependent on their strategy. Combine that with Ari bringing up the idea that we should make the assumption of zero or possibly one scum in the high numbers and I think it's reasonable to be suspicious of her.

[Harley Quinn]

It's true that town can pick high numbers as well, and we know at least one player did. The reason I'm suspicious of the high numbers is because there's way more of them than usual. Since town pick individually and scum co ordinate, an anomaly like this is likely to be caused by scum, at least in part - you wouldn't expect town choices to be too different in any given game, whereas scum choices are dependent on their strategy. Combine that with Ari bringing up the idea that we should make the assumption of zero or possibly one scum in the high numbers and I think it's reasonable to be suspicious of her.

I meant that I didn’t view Ari’s analysis as useful, not yours. Yeah, I agree, town doesn’t coordinate but scum is far more likely. Definitely to suggest we auto PoE low choosing numbers is totally whack.

[Aristeia]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

[Aristeia]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

[Harley Quinn]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

I won’t because it still doesn’t make sense to me and I’d just be throwing out numbers at random.

[Harley Quinn]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

Why is that silly?

[Aristeia]

like its

1. counter to their win condition by making their picks likely suboptimal in pick priority

2. counter to their win condition by making their picks stand out and look weird

3. they cant all deepwolf

the fact that people think this is a reasonable strategy for a scum team to do and rely on the town colliding for pick priority is kind of silly and nonsensical to me.

[Ausuka]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

I'm aware scum did something similar in a past run of this setup, open 732, so I don't see it as silly

[Aristeia]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

I won’t because it still doesn’t make sense to me and I’d just be throwing out numbers at random.

The presence of more information is positive because either

1) i can use the information to help solve

or

2) i cant use the information to help solve


there is really no loss here.

I doubt I will endgame here so you will eventually see my flip and understand that my thoughts are coming from a town mindset

it is likely that atp you will see the validity of my process - and if you think it is useless, you are free to ignore it

but saying "oh i dont get it therefore i wont do it" is just helping scum obfuscate.

[Ausuka]

idk if it is; i do want to hear ap's input if possible before deadline since he's a lot better at this than me

i think it has the advantage of completely fucking with associatives (seriously, what scumteam does that???) and people like ruru and maybe sando will spend an insane amount of time going through older games and comparing the draft spread to what happens here and looking for patterns in what numbers scum picked, cept this completely goes outside all patterns and will just give a bunch of false positives that won't actually lead back to us.

like people will spend a lot of time discussing this but it won't actually lead anywhere and they might actually partner-clear us on draft-nomics

And as I mentioned the number of high picks is very unusual in this game

That's not to say it's somehow certain this happened, but I definitely think it's a reasonable starting point for today

[Harley Quinn]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

I'm aware scum did something similar in a past run of this setup, open 732, so I don't see it as silly

Can you link that game for me?

[Aristeia]

idk if it is; i do want to hear ap's input if possible before deadline since he's a lot better at this than me

i think it has the advantage of completely fucking with associatives (seriously, what scumteam does that???) and people like ruru and maybe sando will spend an insane amount of time going through older games and comparing the draft spread to what happens here and looking for patterns in what numbers scum picked, cept this completely goes outside all patterns and will just give a bunch of false positives that won't actually lead back to us.

like people will spend a lot of time discussing this but it won't actually lead anywhere and they might actually partner-clear us on draft-nomics

And as I mentioned the number of high picks is very unusual in this game

That's not to say it's somehow certain this happened, but I definitely think it's a reasonable starting point for today

no scum picked a number higher than 100 for open 732

[Harley Quinn]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

I won’t because it still doesn’t make sense to me and I’d just be throwing out numbers at random.

The presence of more information is positive because either

1) i can use the information to help solve

or

2) i cant use the information to help solve


there is really no loss here.

I doubt I will endgame here so you will eventually see my flip and understand that my thoughts are coming from a town mindset

it is likely that atp you will see the validity of my process - and if you think it is useless, you are free to ignore it

but saying "oh i dont get it therefore i wont do it" is just helping scum obfuscate.

No, no you misunderstood me, I mean I literally don’t understand the exercise. And since I don’t, my contribution would be meaningless.

[Ausuka]

Does it really make a difference if it's 42 or 128? The point is that they picked numbers high enough that they can reasonably expect to 1) be behind other players who weren't duplicated, and 2) be ahead of all the duplicates.

@Harley, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76766 for the game thread, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=76763 for the scum PT which is probably more useful in this instance

[Aristeia]

i am asking each person to tell me if they are running a scum team, which 3 numbers they would pick for their team and to pick from the numbers chosen.

[Aristeia]

Does it really make a difference if it's 42 or 128? The point is that they picked numbers high enough that they can reasonably expect to 1) be behind other players who weren't duplicated, and 2) be ahead of all the duplicates.

@Harley, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76766 for the game thread, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=76763 for the scum PT which is probably more useful in this instance

I think it's fairly clear there is a difference between picking 18/20 and picking something 200+

[Ausuka]

Not really? Read the scum PT I linked, they were explicitly trying to be the highest numbers and succeeded.

[Harley Quinn]

Does it really make a difference if it's 42 or 128? The point is that they picked numbers high enough that they can reasonably expect to 1) be behind other players who weren't duplicated, and 2) be ahead of all the duplicates.

@Harley, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76766 for the game thread, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=76763 for the scum PT which is probably more useful in this instance

Subject: OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y : SCUMZ PT

idk if it is; i do want to hear ap's input if possible before deadline since he's a lot better at this than me

i think it has the advantage of completely fucking with associatives (seriously, what scumteam does that???) and people like ruru and maybe sando will spend an insane amount of time going through older games and comparing the draft spread to what happens here and looking for patterns in what numbers scum picked, cept this completely goes outside all patterns and will just give a bunch of false positives that won't actually lead back to us.

like people will spend a lot of time discussing this but it won't actually lead anywhere and they might actually partner-clear us on draft-nomics

Ari, I think your argument is debunked.