Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not saying I can't be wrong.

I think I'm right.

I have all these reasons why I think I'm right.

If you have a better lead somewhere else then make the case.

if you think my case is wrong because of _____ reason then state the reason.

but like you coming and going HEM is town because "gut" literally is meaningless to me.

And doing that with scum you (or town you who has demonstrated that you don’t want to listen) tonight is just going to create more bloat.

Good night

nice dodge

[MathBlade]

I'm not saying I can't be wrong.

I think I'm right.

I have all these reasons why I think I'm right.

If you have a better lead somewhere else then make the case.

if you think my case is wrong because of _____ reason then state the reason.

but like you coming and going HEM is town because "gut" literally is meaningless to me.

And doing that with scum you (or town you who has demonstrated that you don’t want to listen) tonight is just going to create more bloat.

Good night

nice dodge

More like I don’t want another toxic TvT

She wasn’t listening to me and neither was the thread considering y’all recycled my points like they’re new ideas

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Explanation of why HEM is scum and his progression on me makes very little sense and is full of lies and gross inaccuracies/lies

initial vote - no explanation on why the vibes are bad or how they are different from other people.



note the timestamps on this - I really doubt town!hem really thinks I can take everyone's answers and give him numerical analysis because

(a) most people didn't respond or joke responded so I don't even have a data set to analyze

(b) it's like 5 hours between these posts.

(c) I don't think it's reasonable for him to expect me to give him an actual answer here so expecting one is kind of bad faith setting me up to fail and so he can continue his push.



this post is about the large number discussion I am having with Ausuka - he thinks it's not worth discussing because it's not great for reads and he wants to move on which is a kind of signaling. I believe scum!him thinks the context of the discussion is pointless - but this shouldn't actually be how town!him thinks because if he thinks I'm scum - then it should be good that Ausuka/Harley are pushing me on this. Instead he doesn't want them to interrogate me on my thoughts for ??? reasons.



here he's digging back in - now it's good for the number discussion because he sees it as something to use to push me. He tries to consolidate based on a narrative that scum!me was doing "false setup spec" on page 1? There's no discussion of actual motivation - he just finds this a covenient thing to attack with because Ausuka has been pushing me for it - you can tell he doesn't actually believe it because he doesn't really explain how it makes sense for scum!me to pursue this.

Notice the slip here - the second sentence implies that it's "bad town strategy to choose high numbers". As in he's thought about whether it'd be good for town to pick high numbers, he's concluded it's bad and thus I am "scummy" for doing this "bad thing" - except he's picked a even larger number than me - which is why he tries to pick up the slip with the idea that 80085 is personally sentimental and he's fine doing things that are not good strategy.

This feels like something self-conscious scum would do rather than town. because if town concluded that picking bad numbers is actually bad strategy - they would just

not do it

.

Here he seems to think it is bad for town to pick large number so i'm bad for picking a large number but he also has to bend himself into a pretzel to attack me for picking the large number while excusing himself for picking an even larger number.




he voted me for vibes. him forgetting what he voted me for originally and instead hijacking ausuka's argument feels like he never really remembered what he voted for me for in the first place.

implying it was bullshit vote he decided to double down on because it happened to have momentum



this is just pure revisionist nonsense.

he did not vote me for my comment about large numbers - he voted me for vibes. he decided to change what he was pushing me for after he saw Ausuka pushing me for "large numbers" he never even mentioned the large numbers thing until AFTER Ausuka started pushing me for it. He had previously stated in 128 that he didn't think the number discussion about large numbers was even useful so he clearly did not CARE about large numbers. He's now changing his story as if he was pushing me for the large number theory to begin with.



this is the first "read" of someone other than me he's made.

it feels conveniently like scum trying to recruit an ally.

I would imagine he would've gotten reads of at least Ausuka for how she's pushing me about Large Numbers but instead he's basically said nothing about anyone's alignment other than tunneling me up to this point.

It does not feel like something organic




This is the part that really triggered me.

He is making the implication that I have not done enough to persuade people because I do not actually care about getting this information.

It's grossly bad faith because I have tried multiple times to convince people to give me three numbers - 45 57 58 76 80 115 121

I have tried to be nice about this. I do care.

For him to misrep me as "not caring" is a ridiculously bad faith interpretation of my efforts this game. It annoys me because either he hasn't read my posting or he doesn't care about my posting and he's just making up whatever fake narrative he thinks will make me look bad instead of actually examining if I actually care about this number guessing thought experiment.

I thought it would be fun to have everyone guess 3 numbers and see if we could get some info out of it because

(1) scum know what they picked(tmi) and they want to make their guesses look like town guesses
(2) town do not know what scum picked
(3) the information could be useful down the line, it might not be useful down the line, I don't really know but if there's some anomaly that pops up it could be cool to think about.

If nobody wants to do it I'm not going to hijack the thread and just rant about it for like 10 days? I can scumhunt fine without it so I was moving on but he comes back and claims its proof that I'm scum because ????




This is him trying to back away and pretending he was actually sorting in good faith/being nice.

Which is kind of ridiculous because as you can see above, roughly 90% of his posts are just shitpushing me with made up narratives and lies.

him claiming that I am "not motivated to solve the game" when I have double the number of posts of anyone else and I'm literally answering any questions sent to me and talking/engaging with multiple slots is ludicrious and a total lie.

also his line about wanting to "help me squeeze out answers" is complete bullshit - I challenge anyone to pick out a single post in his iso prior to this where he is "trying to help me"



this remark makes very little sense because he's trying to placate me and convince me not to come after him because he's refering to a game where we were T/T and we fought for a while - except

(1) he supposedly thinks im lockscum so why is he even worried about this?

(2) if he thinks i'm town where is the reconsideration/evaluation of my alignment? literally every post up to here is just shitpushing me for made up narratives in his head.



this feels like he's trying to de-escalate to prevent this 1v1 from going full nuclear -

but it doesn't actually make sense for town!him to de-escalate if he thinks I'm mafia

Like I'm right here for him to sort but instead of sorting he's trying to placate me and see if he can get me to back off



more fake narrative nonsense. like I'm literally right there for him to sort but instead of asking me about my thoughts or literally anything game relevant he decides he wants to just try different colors of shade and see what works.



literally nothing in HEM's iso makes me think he is trying to sort me in good faith. literally most of his posts are shit tunneling me and I don't even think any of his reasoning is actually believable - his progression on me is literally a lie.



blaming me for this 1v1 is kind of rich because his entire iso is a shit tunnel of me whereas I'm actually engaging with multiple people so it's just a gross misrep of how we got here.

TLDR:

HEM is a player who enjoys using aggression as scum to get townread and push mis-elims. I do not believe his push of me is in good faith, his progression is mostly made up and there are several glaring inconsistencies/outright lies. I have not felt like he is trying to sort me in good faith at any point during my conversation with him.

I disagree with this assertion.

A good majority of players just don’t do the assessment asks and usually it’s not black and white

A good majority of your content has been some sort of mech/mech derivative.

Him asking you to give some content or conclusions feels fair. Even if you aren’t done, giving something on those that had or something to progress the game is merited there.

I don’t think he’s saying what you’re implying

From what I gain from this naked,unfiltered just dumps are bad, but conclusions themselves are good

I think he doesn’t like the little bits of conclusions you have done, and I tend to agree with him that assigning a generic pool (eg town in high numbers and scum don’t overlap (this one is Titus)) I think is a bad start. When we have a scum flip or two then we can look back

But I don’t like blanket assertions here unless they are backed up by some sort of statistical data here.

I haven’t had the time to run the numbers yet but I would want to see something done in at least three quarters of scum games before I would hold it as likely here.

[MathBlade]

I’d really like if you focused more on reads rather than the setup or if you’re going to do this then do something with some actual backing that scum or town do it consistently and not just your opinion as to what should be done.

[MathBlade]

Damn that's the first time I've ever been scumread for being bad at maths

huh?

I was pissed in general and Ausuka being nice about maths felt out of place tonally so she seemed sus.

[Gamma Emerald]

Aye, purge time.

VOTE: Aris

bad vote

[Gamma Emerald]

Roden still has no drive to solve. HEM should be the lim.

this feels patently false

[Gamma Emerald]

How do you have 3 associative so confidently this early in the game?

He's shopping.

You're literally calling the wagon dying when it very much is not! One person unvoted, and she said she unvoted because she wanted to take a break from the game... not because she thinks HEM is town.

don't think I've seen implosion get this emphatic
anyone else got an example of this somewhere?

[Gamma Emerald]

you accused std of scumreading you because you smoked him too many times as scum

the subtext is that he's town.

I don't think math addressed this yet, I'd like if he would

I did? Or if I follow I don’t know what you’re asking so can’t address it?

I think it’s SOP for StD?

why do you not think StD could be using you as a scapegoat or smth?

[MathBlade]

you accused std of scumreading you because you smoked him too many times as scum

the subtext is that he's town.

I don't think math addressed this yet, I'd like if he would

I did? Or if I follow I don’t know what you’re asking so can’t address it?

I think it’s SOP for StD?

why do you not think StD could be using you as a scapegoat or smth?

I am not sure I should answer that.

I thought that at the time time time but something stood out to me about him that just stuck around.

[Gamma Emerald]

normally I mesh rlly well with town!Titus
I'm not getting that feeling rn, so I'm concerned
I felt similar in mini 2272

I wish people would provide links rather than just numbers, that makes it a lot easier to look them up. But you’re saying, if Titus has different takes than you, that’s somehow scum indicative? Because I don’t think that’s necessarily a great metric to read someone. In reverse yes, mindmelding is usually a good sign but the converse by itself isn’t necessarily. Tone-wise she feels townie to me here.

I don't have to agree with Titus
I just have to feel comfortable about her reads/get her thought process

[Gamma Emerald]

One thing that did make me wonder @Math was her reaction to your theory about her picking the number she did to be vanilla and she said it would be stupid to do that. But I don’t see why anyone picks the number she did, if they’re not hoping to get vanilla, so her response to that didn’t really make a lot of sense while your theory did.

I did this before to take a low priority PR.

I guess that’s possible. Were you successful?

I think so. I can't remember and can't find it.

she was
she picked UB and got it

[Gamma Emerald]

Hq is pretty town

Agreed
I think I wanna shore up my townblock and then do a "crunch time reread" to determine where my overall feelings lie

[Gamma Emerald]

@Math, it's the false hypothesis comment that irks me

That’s literally how science works.

You build a hypothesis and test it.

StD has a hypothesis I am scum.

I know it’s false but unless I allow him to test it then it becomes extremely antitown.

I build hypothesis and test them.

My StD hypothesis was falsified so I think StD is town.

I had a similar hypothesis with you when I was gunsmith.

why do you use the word falsified
that implies intentional action

For any premise to be scientifically valid it must be able to be false, falsifiable.

Eg Does the summer sun cause stained shirts?

This can be falsifiable if we leave a shirt out in the sun and it doesn’t stain.

Instead we learn that it fades, so something else causes the uptick in stained shirts.

They all tend to be sticky too.

So then testing again we can discover more people have ice cream in summer months.

It’s just how to make sure a hypothesis is valid.

Eg are there flying unicorns who exist only outside of space and time can’t be scientific because there’s no way to ever prove it false.

I think my definition of a hypothesis might differ from yours

[Gamma Emerald]

I agree with this. Ari assumes I’m assuming, that because town!her’s first pick would be AC. it would defacto be everyone’s default pick. I agree, it’s totally player dependent.

implosion's take on it was probably pretty similar to mine

[Gamma Emerald]

I hate that y’all are agreeing with me now when I said it to Ari and was treated as being ridiculous

that didn't really seem to be what you were saying tho

[MathBlade]

I hate that y’all are agreeing with me now when I said it to Ari and was treated as being ridiculous

that didn't really seem to be what you were saying tho

Sigh It’s kinda dumb to argue about just know I am frustrated

[MathBlade]

@Math, it's the false hypothesis comment that irks me

That’s literally how science works.

You build a hypothesis and test it.

StD has a hypothesis I am scum.

I know it’s false but unless I allow him to test it then it becomes extremely antitown.

I build hypothesis and test them.

My StD hypothesis was falsified so I think StD is town.

I had a similar hypothesis with you when I was gunsmith.

why do you use the word falsified
that implies intentional action

For any premise to be scientifically valid it must be able to be false, falsifiable.

Eg Does the summer sun cause stained shirts?

This can be falsifiable if we leave a shirt out in the sun and it doesn’t stain.

Instead we learn that it fades, so something else causes the uptick in stained shirts.

They all tend to be sticky too.

So then testing again we can discover more people have ice cream in summer months.

It’s just how to make sure a hypothesis is valid.

Eg are there flying unicorns who exist only outside of space and time can’t be scientific because there’s no way to ever prove it false.

I think my definition of a hypothesis might differ from yours

Mine’s the same one from grade school?

[Gamma Emerald]

I think picking ascetic cop is much stronger than picking a jailkeeper/roleblocker type role because ascetic cop can't be blocked in the first place and by picking it you are essentially permanently blocking the cop.

Absolutely.

Mafia players don't always play optimally.

Again, this isn't really

important

, I'm just annoyed that we're basically Contractually Obligated to let Enchant not-play-the-game for 2-3 days.

If someone else was playing like Enchant has this game with top pick, would you have the same attitude towards them?

Enchant was being blatantly scummy and weird in that game Implosion linked. Here he’s just nai for me so far.

thoughts on enchant in relation to chromavalon?
I don't like his Ari vote

[Gamma Emerald]

Activity really isn’t much of a tell either way for Enchant, weirdness otoh is, which is what he was in that game he linked. This is also an entirely different setup, so unless Implosion can find more than one gzme to base that read on, I don’t put much stock in it.

enchant was scum in my last PYP so that would be worth a check

[Gamma Emerald]

That being said HEM Implosion Enchant might be a thing.

I feel like my scumreads currently are potentially like Mathblade/implo, HEM, ?
That's not set in stone at all tho

[Gamma Emerald]

Titus is there any particular reason you've created this weird dichotomy between me and Dwlee? I don't see any particular reason why you would think there's one scum between the two of us. And sorry but it's major stretch to say Dwlee has had an "impact" or that they've tried to, this just feels like typical Day 1 effort Dwlee.

The vibe you're giving off is that since you think one of us is scum that we should be in opposition to each other, but I don't have any particular interest in proving myself to be townier than them. I have zero interest in pursuing them at all today as they're usually a slow burn read for me nowadays. If Dwlee has anything to pursue me on they'll do it of their own accord, not because you trying to nudge us into a fight.

Titus only think Dwlee is town because she SR you and believes 2 scum wouldn't collide picks

[implosion]

A smattering of points on hem. I'm going to do this by just going backwards through his ISO because it'll hopefully avoid common ground with previous cases (plus I think their recent play is worse than their early play). And I will start by re-mentioning this. Their most recent post is very similar, and fit in line with what I described of hem's play being aesthetic rather than material: rather than picking out specific people and targeting them, or trying to appeal to specific people on the wagon, or really making any real effort to use their wagon to find scum... they just say "watch out for people who just rode this wagon". That'd be 8 people if the wagon goes to lim. Not exactly a useful statement. In context, as a last post they're making before they won't be available for a while (and where they think they could be limmed while gone) it feels even scummier; I think natural town inclinations in that situation would be things like a final reads list or a couple specific scumreads, or even something vindictive directed at people on the wagon. But a general "this wagon on me is sus" is utterly useless to the town in the event that hem is limmed.

The closest they got to calling out specific people on the wagon was here. They called out Aristeia for a while but even got shaky on that. I think what speaks volumes on their alignment is what's absent in their ISO, rather than what's present. 122 posts and as far as I can tell they have given exactly two actual reads: a now-retracted scumread on Aristeia that is the focus of roughly half their ISO, and an "I'll die by this read" townread on Mathblade. For most of the game they've been the second-most active player and yet they've left not a trace to tie themself to any other player. This is the brunt of what I mean by asethetic rather than substantive: while they are engaging with the game, they are not making any claims, reaching any conclusions, or, to borrow from MathBlade, creating any hypotheses.

[implosion]

The other weird quirk of this game that I do want to make mention of is this weird conflation of Dwlee and Roden by some people, partially including me. I think I've done this because in my mind they're both "not in the thick of things", though in slightly different ways. It feels like neither has been involved in any major arguments, or been the major person pushing any perspective, etc. I think this weird coupling will become naturally decoupled as they each take more committal stances and have prolonged direct interactions with other individual people, because those are the things I feel are lacking.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gosh golly this is a bad post. Town does not say "This future behavior: if this is what you see in the future, push the people who do it" because scum will just... not do that if they genuinely think it's going to get them caught.

it's not smart to say but why does town never say it?