Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[BlueBloodedToffee]

And my call out for Cheap being inconsistent had nothing to do with the vote that you're referring to in terms of him being 'easy' today. It was in regards to his read progressions.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

In fact, the amount of finger pointing and lack of action might actually mean Cheap is town

[Corwinoid]

I think corwin's a reasonable vote here

VOTE: Corwinoid

Comes in and places a vote on vasex based on a lie that no one actually cared about anymore. It's the second vote on vasex who doesn't really have any real elim steam, so pretty safe from suspicion and puts a town member just a little closer to a mislim. A good position to take as a scum wanting to elim a town.

In 731 he has a "solid TR on Somnus and you" - you being Cheap. He appreciates the quality of Cheap's posts.

Note here that Cheap's vote on vasex is 727, 1 hour BEFORE Corwin's 731 where he reads Cheap as Town.

In 797, after the flip, he's now got a Scum read on Cheap based on Cheap's vote, which as I noted, happened an hour before his previous Town read.

Let's also note that in 731 Corwin says "I just want Vasex gone; I think he's been completely anti-town and disruptive and it's really hard to think we're just not better off without him--I might be tunneling, but it's genuinely making it harder to read everyone else." which is essentially the same reasoning as Cheap gave in his 727 vote for Vasex.

I genuinely think you guys let vasex off way too easily early on for that, it didn't read like a joke to me at all, and his follow up didn't make it feel like a joke either and essentially amounts to a 'lol defense', and then terrible anti-town flooding the entire day. My position in it is irrelevant because I'd have been slot #1 if Bella hadn't already been sitting on him. I'm looking either off the wagon or deeper on it with the way the actual elim went. The difference here is that I didn't push E-1 with what feels to me like an ATE to get someone to hammer. I had two days to think about that and finish reading the 800 fricken posts in day 1 after that, I think my read is allowed to change and look at behavior.

I care a lot more about what people do and the results than the way I feel about them D1.

I need to catch up on the rest of what's happened in the last 36 hours, I'll be posting more shortly. Re: the shit start to today, I really want to apologize to everyone -- I don't lie about OOG stuff, I think it's unethical to bring non-game things into the game to affect it. Between the sleeping like crap, getting sick yesterday, and then my best friend getting into town earlier than expected for this weekend, I haven't been as active or clear as I'd normally hope to right now and I'm hoping I can fix that today and tomorrow.

[Corwinoid]

Comes in and places a vote on vasex based on a lie that no one actually cared about anymore

If nobody cared about it, why did you jump on the wagon after I made that argument?

[Corwinoid]

Same question to Cheap and BBT. If I was so off on my read and how I felt about that, why didn't you two shut me down instead of eliminating him?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I wanted Vasex gone more than I cared about your reasoning. Until of course he flipped green and then I cared more about your reasoning.

That's how voting/wagons/flips work.

[Rad]

Comes in and places a vote on vasex based on a lie that no one actually cared about anymore

If nobody cared about it, why did you jump on the wagon after I made that argument?

I never really cared about that lie. It was super obvious the way it played out and I felt like once somnus bit, it was actually helpful to get conversation going.

I did care about him spamming everything to hell, slinging shit across everyone with no coherent thoughts, obsessive defense of mq and somnus, and a little bit of OMGUS GTFO of my game. Plus I was feeling pretty down on my reads with no one liking my read on Bella so was settling into the stance that maybe I suck at town reads. So a scum flip on vasex would have been fucking awesome all around, and a town flip on him is at least a relief in that the game can now normalize.

I didn't have a scum read on you until d2 with what I consider a possible scum slip on cheap. You were null. You had just joined, replacing a lurker who had minimal input. I actually kinda liked that the mq replacement came in and voted for vasex lol. I was waiting for mq to be replaced and here you were actually playing the game immediately and making a move. Felt awesome. I almost posted how awesome that was.

[Corwinoid]

I really do feel bad I got hit with so much shit all at once right after too. Replacing in is hard, and that didn't help... I got my strongest overall reaction out there and then it just kind of ran off and it seems like everyone just wanted him gone for shitting things up instead of talking me off the lie/joke (that I *still* don't read as a joke... maybe he's just that unfunny).

[Nero Cain]

Vote Count 2.03

Corwinoid (2):

BlueBloodedToffee, Bellaphant

BlueBloodedToffee (1):

Somnus

Not Voting (4):

Corwinoid, Cheapside, whiskey delta, Rad

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is June 15

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-06-16 14:15:00)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Way too many people not voting.

Yucky.

[Rad]

Way too many people not voting.

Yucky.

Pull a Spartan and explain some theory here for me? What's wrong with not voting right now?

We got conversations going. Corwin has replied with reasons that everyone can judge. Somnus promised to return with some new input.

I'm pretty happy with this activity so far but maybe I'm a clueless newbie. Voting is for scum elim and pressure right? Who needs additional pressure on them right now? Or am I misunderstanding how you view the use of voting?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Voting is town's best weapon. How do you know where people's views lie if they don't use their strongest weapon?

Also, when people don't vote and create wahons/pressure

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Ffs, trying to edit. I hate phone posting.

Wagons/pressure it usually leads to flash wagons/flash eliminations which are next to useless in terms of analysis.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

For example; we have 6 hours before deadline and no elimation.

Person A scum reads X and Y but because there are only 6 hours left and there are no viable wagons on either of those reads he has to vote Z and shrug. Person A is scum and is scot free.

[Cheapside]

Not much time today, but questions should be answered.

I really do feel bad I got hit with so much shit all at once right after too. Replacing in is hard, and that didn't help... I got my strongest overall reaction out there and then it just kind of ran off and it seems like everyone just wanted him gone for shitting things up instead of talking me off the lie/joke (that I *still* don't read as a joke... maybe he's just that unfunny).

That's reasonable, I was astonished anyone was willing to replace in to the slot in this thread. Hope your RL stuff goes ok.

Same question to Cheap and BBT. If I was so off on my read and how I felt about that, why didn't you two shut me down instead of eliminating him?

Fair question. The early joke is one of the few aspects of Vasex's play that didn't rub me the wrong way. Even if I hadn't liked it, I doubt it would have been enough to eliminate him. My vote was because I spent hours going through the thread, only to realise the person making 1/3 of the posts didn't actually read people's posts carefully enough to know their reads. (And I'd like to note that while my post betrayed some emotional tone, if anything I'd have been more pissed off as scum.)

At first, I was suspiscious of Somnus for his reaction to the early joke. But then you reacted in a similar vein, and before that, there was BBT's 242 in which he just... takes Vasex completely at face value?

I can in theory sr

three

people for this and assume one is just town gone down a very bad rabbithole. I think the more rational thing to do is to assume that because at least one town genuinely thinks Vasex's joke was a massive red flag, up to three could. So yeah... not going to vote you for that.

--------------

I'm still a bit worried about the issue brought up in 857. I understand that interpretations change and you look more at behaviour, but you appeared to have read the post where I voted Vasex quite carefully, as you picked out a reference to you that wasn't by name. I guess one way of rephrasing the question would be: why

didn't

you see it as an ATE putting us at E-1 and forcing a hammer at first?

[Rad]

Thanks for explaining BBT.

I think we have plenty of time right now. If d2 dragged on another 72 hours, sure, makes sense that it's best if everyone is taking a stance with their vote so we don't hurry ourselves into a mislim based on time running out.

I think an E-1 wagon with intention to hammer is only good right now for a scum team looking to out a doc. I want to give Somnus some time to get his input out there before I commit to another vote. Whiskey also became more active last weekend and here we are entering the weekend again. Cheap is posting more. Everyone is active right now. This is good for town and rushing a lim is not.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I agree, there is no need for a hammer.

There is a need to clearly see where everyone is at right now in the game though. Again, time runs out quickly. 6 hours is an extreme deadline, could quite easily happen with 2 or 3 days left.

[Corwinoid]

> why didn't you see it as an ATE putting us at E-1 and forcing a hammer at first?

I was seeing red and annoyed by his antics so I wasn't looking. It needed some space to start thinking clearly again. Having night to cool down and come look at it again helped, but I should have waited to say anything at all until I'd slept when D2 opened instead of looking like a complete moron with the name/slot confusion.

[Somnus]

I typed most of this this morning before I left when we were floating around post 878. Holding off/not finishing it ended up work out nicely anyway with what I've seen since then. I know it's long, but I'm going to give the thread a chance to breathe for a while after this and I'll be back sometime later tomorrow assuming we're not already in Night 2 by then.

Well this will be fun...Post 864 may have just blown the game wide open, and I think post 871 may have just unintentionally solved the game. Here are my updated reads and likely final reads of the game:

Town: Corwin, Rad, Cheap, Whiskey
Scum: BlueBlood, Bella

The timeline for Day 2 so far:

-Bella states not to rush Day 2 after BlueBlood and I cross-vote.
-Rad posts some VCA and mentions that Spartan had named BBT/Bella as a very possible scum team (I had forgotten this until Rad's 864.)
-Rewind. Spartan is the night-kill Night 1 after parking his vote on BlueBlood and naming BlueBlood/Bella as a scum-team.
-BlueBlood comes in shortly after Rad's VCA post and deposits three god-awful steamers, throwing shit in every direction and hoping it sticks somewhere.
-10 minutes later, Bella, WHO HAS BEEN ON EVERY E-1 WAGON SO FAR ALONG WITH BLUEBLOOD (including on both of the players who have flipped green so far), and barely 24 hours into Day 2 (after saying not to rush the vote), drops in and leaves a naked vote on Corwin to put him to E-1. Despite "not quite willing to give him a town-read yet", has literally followed his every step and been on every wagon with him.

To Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap, regardless of what you think of me as a person/whether or not you think I'm scum, flipping BlueBlood today essentially sorts 3 of the 7 remaining players. It sorts BlueBlood (obviously), myself (unless you somehow think Somnus/BlueBlood has been scum-theater), and Corwin (he'd essentially become lock-town). If Vasex, Spartan, and myself were all wrong about BlueBlood and he has played the most baffling, borderline game-throwing town game ever, so be it. Let me remind you that Vasex was quick-hammered by BlueBlood, Bella parked her vote on Vasex and left it there, not seeming even remotely bothered by the possibility of a quick-hammer (but now wants everyone to take their time on Day 2 despite having just created a very early E-1) and Spartan is now dead. All of this happened after there were no takers by town to hammer Spartan.

If any of the 4 of you still think I'm scum, that's fine.

You can even flip me today

. I offer this as someone who currently has zero votes on them. I don't mind. If we go with me today, once I flip green, flip BlueBlood and Bella back to back days. If I'm wrong, so be it. It's not a game of perfect information. And considering we lost the most OP town power role that exists in Newbie Games due to a quick-hammer on Day 1,

this is about as good of a chance of winning this game as you could ever dream of after that Day 1 debacle.

But to those of you who are still going along with BlueBlood and Bella, I suggest you look at where it has gotten you so far, and if you continue to follow them, you will be the next lemming going over the cliff (fun fact: lemmings don't actually do this, but I digress). They've already set up Corwin and Cheap as the next two/final Day eliminations after it became clear I wasn't going to be a super easy mis-lim today.

Take a quick browse through Spartan's ISO, particularly posts 273, 279, 282, 287 (this is a good one), 289 (another really good one), 294, 296 (this is what ended up happening!), 300, 302, 306, etc.

Look as far back through the game as you're willing to under the pretenses of the exact scum-team being BlueBlood and Bella, and tell me you somehow disagree. Hell, if you don't have it in you to go all the way back to the beginning, at least go to late Day 1 and read from there, and ESPECIALLY read what has transpired so far on Day 2 under the pretenses of the aforementioned team.

Literally THE ENTIRE game makes sense when you look at it through those lenses.

Again, after that, tell me with a straight face that you somehow disagree.

If you still have your doubts about me, you should be on-board with flipping me today and then flipping them back to back, no questions asked, after I flip green

.


I humbly offer to Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap one of the following two options. I obviously can't make you do either, but it would be greatly appreciated and would significantly advance your win-con if you take me up on one of the following:

1.) Flip me today. Again, I don't mind. I'll be green. But after you do,

FOLLOW THIS SOLVE

. Once I flip green, you'll see that I'm not partnered with anyone, have no reason to personally protect Corwin/Cheapside, and that my motivations are clean. The only risk here is that somehow, Bella is town and helped mafia in every single vote and play in this entire game. I don't think that's the case, but it's still technically a risk.

2.) Flip BlueBlood. This sorts his slot, mine, and Corwin, and makes my solve very very likely. If after a red flip here, Bella mysteriously flips town on Day 3 (I don't think she will), it still wouldn't lose the game. Whoever is still alive would have presumably a 3P eLo on Day 4. So even if this somehow is not the exact solve, you have a free ticket to Day 4 eLo unless you want to tell me that there's zero scum in BlueBlood and Bella. After finishing this post and reading back, at the very least from Day 2 and looking at the wagons that have transpired so far,

NO ONE should think that that's a reality.

I believe Rad was "town-binned" to help contribute to mafia winning in eLo via his mis-vote. Same can potentially be said for Whiskey who I'm pretty sure, prior to this post, was going to be killed Night 2, and still might. The same pivot to town-reading Spartan occurred the moment it became clear that town wasn't interested in hammering Spartan (check out 852, Whiskey. This was essentially you marked for dead). How do you go from wanting to hammer someone 7 posts and MAYBE a day into replacing in, to "Spartan is probably town, Bella"? This dude ain't town. And if he is, we were screwed from the start.

As a reminder, as of this post, I have zero votes on me and am in no danger of elimination. I offered myself up as an elimination on Day 1 to blow open the game and didn't receive any takers. With my flip, the scum team's narrative would have been in absolute shambles going into Day 2. Considering how much more information we have now, they probably should have taken me up on my offer. And I'm now offering it again if needed.

If you somehow think I'm doing this to try and save a hypothetical Scum!Somnus partner of Corwin/Cheap despite making the same offer on Day 1, again, I am offering myself as the Day 2 elimination to the 4 of you.

As a further reminder, Corwin started Day 2 saying that the vote today should be between myself and Cheap. He then followed it up later on in the day and mentioned that he had gotten myself and Spartan mixed up when he could have stayed on me. If he had, Bella inevitably would have put me at E-1 or waited for one of the other three of you to put me at E-1 and she would have hammered at some point after. Once it became clear that Corwin was town-reading me and had me mixed up with Spartan and that Cheap was town-reading me, the plan to try and eliminate Somnus on Day 2 quickly vanished. BlueBlood quickly abandoned his vote on me, pivoted to Corwin, and even tried to bargain with me to join him. They've since been putting out feelers for thoughts on Cheapside as well. He and Bella have been lining up Cheapside and Corwin to be the last two Day Eliminations since.

To Bella, if I'm wrong (and even if I'm right), it's nothing personal. But if I am wrong, this is just kind of how it goes when you're on every E-1 wagon, including the two that have both flipped green so far, have very quickly created another one nearly at the start of Day 2, and have been on the same page as BlueBlood every step of the way (despite allegedly not quite being ready to town-read him). Scum often throw their partner right in the middle of their reads and then gradually town-read them. Hell, both of you currently have the EXACT scum-pool of Somnus, Cheapside, and Corwin. What are the odds considering you don't quite town-read him? In order for you to be town in this game, it would now require everyone to assume that you were essentially an honorary mafia member.

There's not a rational conversation I could have with BlueBlood here, so no offense to him personally outside of the confines of the game, but I'm not interested in his thoughts on this post and will not be engaging with his response to this. My bullshit filter is in full effect.

So that leaves 4 other people. For this to happen, 3 of the 4 of you would need to be on-board. Again, I can't dictate or force anyone to do anything. I'm 1 player in the game out of the remaining 7. But since I know that at an absolute bare minimum, 3 of the 4 of you are town (and I'm now pretty sure all 4 of you are), this should be a no-brainer.

So again, to Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap: Do we have a deal?

P.S: As someone not even in danger of elimination here, I offer you this: Don't you think that maybe, JUST MAYBE, if I'm scum in this game, I easily join the pack and push Vasex through as "a policy vote", get away completely free of blame afterwards (ESPECIALLY based on our early interactions together), and then have my pick of Corwin or Cheap to just go along with on Day 2? If I'm scum, with the way this game has gone, we'd be in Night 2 right now and I could have hammered Corwin or jumped on the suspicions of Cheap. And that JUST MAYBE, I kill BlueBlood Night 1 if he's town?

Instead, out of the three players who were hard town-reading me on Day 1, Scum!Somnus decided it would be a brilliant idea to allow my partner to push through a Day 1 wagon on one of them and then night-kill another (after not pushing Spartan through on Day 1 anyway). Doesn't seem very effective for me to be this damn picky as scum. I also have zero reason as scum to now be presenting Bella as the solve, considering she has no votes on her, and isn't really hard scum-read by anyone else still alive in the game (as far as I know, although it looks like since I started this post this morning, Rad has at the very least referenced his scum-read of Bella from Day 1). There's WIFOM and then there's just "fucking stupid." For me to be scum here, it would definitely fall under "fucking stupid."

P.S.S: As a reminder, a doctor claim by anyone at E-1 is now meaningless. If we're in A1, there will be a counter-claim. In order for the doctor to still have any more value than a vanilla townie (since the cop is already dead), they would have to make TWO saves on night kills to gain an extra mis-lim for town. That is extremely unlikely to happen at this point, and if this solve is correct, we might not even have two more night phases. If we're in C1, all scum would have to do at E-1 is claim doctor (in C1, the only town PR is a cop), and if they're believed, could coast to the end-game under a fake "clear". Only the death of a hypothetical mafia roleblocker at this point would prove that there's a doctor in the game. Otherwise, we're in C1 where it's just a cop. I don't want to open up a discussion on power roles further than that, but I advise you to keep this in mind.

Thank-you for coming to my TedTalk. I'm going to let the thread breathe for a while.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

What are the odds Scum!Cheapside asked his scum partner Scum!BBT to remove his vote so that he can join the wagon less suspiciously than if he had hammered out of nowhere. Making it look better with BBT who is aleady on the wagon hammering?

Could it be possible for cheapside to be doing some distancing from his missing teammate? So when they reappeared or replaced he would have already put out feelers of trying to eliminate the slot?

I haven't read all of Somnus' post yet. In fact, I couldn't read past the first paragraph because of the blatant MISREP of Spartan.

Above are the last two posts from Spartan. CLEARLY speculating about a BBT/Cheap team or a Cheap/Corwin team.

So, yeah. That's not a good start at all.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Umm, he states that me and Bella are scum because we were on both conf town wagons...so was Cheap. I'm not sure what the difference is?

I'm not going through the entire post and snipping quotes etc because time. I'll respond where necessary but that post is awful and there is a lot of misrep/flat out false narrative.

[Rad]

Let me sum it up for you BBT. It was a good read but it's easy to summarize too:

BBT + Bella is the scum team. Somnus wants who he considers town to flip him right now, and when he flips green, we go after you and Bella the next 2 days without exception.

So it's a town!Somnus gambit play and we're invited to take part and see if his read is correct.

Or it's a scum!Somnus gambit play that thinks this will give us a town read on him. The scum!Somnus move is super risky because suddenly town believes in Somnus and flips BBT or Bella, who are not likely scum alongside scum!Somnus. Or we buy into his plan and flip him and he's scum. Whoops!

Personally I think there's 1 scum between BBT and Bella and 1 in Somnus's town list. With this post, Somnus is now a town read to me. That option just seems more likely. I'm curious now, particularly, in Whiskey's thoughts on Somnus's post.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Please read my posts Rad.

[Rad]

I did bbt. Spartan did believe you and Bella were scum team. I actually did that research that somnus is referring to. He didn't end the game saying that you two were the scum team, but I think he held that belief earlier in the game.

[Rad]

A bbt Bella scum team has dominated town so hard that I refuse to believe in it.