Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[humaneatingmonkey]

i'll be back in 3 hours or so.

[Aristeia]

i think town!implo wouldve written why he was convinced rather than use an excuse like this

Not certain what you mean by "why he was convinced". Like, you think I would have re-explained it? I'd explained it before, why would I re-explain it?

if town implo believes this about hem - i see no reason why he would soften his stance on HEM given that since this post hem has come back and given reads on exactly noone. if anything this makes his antispew point about hem even more salient and should cause him to double down on hem scum and want to yeet hem.

I mean, this is simply wrong? He didn't give reads on exactly no one, he gave reads on Dwlee and on myself, and they were the kind of thing I had wanted out of them, they had analysis behind them. I don't view it as enough to reverse the scumread but it did at least start giving me pause.

Continuing to read through but want to start replying now.

I mean if you were convinced by titus to change your mind and vote mathblade instead of hem, then you would've read some post or some idea that was compelling and convincing to you.

You would cite that post/idea as being what convinced you rather than citing titus.

[implosion]

say what you want about mathblade but that dude is NOT antispewing at all.

mathblade has mixed it up with pretty much anyone who is online

if mathblade flips scum, it spews a ton of different slots green

harley is probly spewed town

dwlee is probly spewed town

gamma is probly spewed town

titus is probly spewed town

im spewed town

this is just of top of my head i havent actually read all of math's interactions.

so its super weird to me that implo can think pivoting to mathblade makes sense if he believed in his initial point against hem

Why do I have to read hem and Mathblade using the same methodology? I view MathBlade as really hard to read using that sort of thing because 1, I don't understand his meta and 2, the fact that his posting has been mostly nonsense to me is hard to read fundamentally. He also anti-spewed people before it seemed like he was potentially going down so the same line of logic doesn't apply - it applies to HEM because HEM never gave reads to begin with.

Earlier I said I was very likely to not get a solid read on MathBlade. I was planning to possibly farm out my read on him to other people, and lo and behold, everyone has their confident pet opinion on MathBlade. And a lot of HQ's points really felt convincing to me, regarding play relative to HEM, and his motivation for voting HEM, etc. But you also have your confident townread on him, and I've also found your points convincing at times.

[Wallflower]

I’m phone-skimming so if this was covered in a post point me to it, but Mathblade, what changed your mind on HEM from thinking them Town to having them as a scumread?

[Aristeia]

say what you want about mathblade but that dude is NOT antispewing at all.

mathblade has mixed it up with pretty much anyone who is online

if mathblade flips scum, it spews a ton of different slots green

harley is probly spewed town

dwlee is probly spewed town

gamma is probly spewed town

titus is probly spewed town

im spewed town

this is just of top of my head i havent actually read all of math's interactions.

so its super weird to me that implo can think pivoting to mathblade makes sense if he believed in his initial point against hem

Why do I have to read hem and Mathblade using the same methodology? I view MathBlade as really hard to read using that sort of thing because 1, I don't understand his meta and 2, the fact that his posting has been mostly nonsense to me is hard to read fundamentally. He also anti-spewed people before it seemed like he was potentially going down so the same line of logic doesn't apply - it applies to HEM because HEM never gave reads to begin with.

Earlier I said I was very likely to not get a solid read on MathBlade. I was planning to possibly farm out my read on him to other people, and lo and behold, everyone has their confident pet opinion on MathBlade. And a lot of HQ's points really felt convincing to me, regarding play relative to HEM, and his motivation for voting HEM, etc. But you also have your confident townread on him, and I've also found your points convincing at times.

ok who do you want to flip today?

[MathBlade]

I’m phone-skimming so if this was covered in a post point me to it, but Mathblade, what changed your mind on HEM from thinking them Town to having them as a scumread?

It wasn’t really any one thing
Roden’s post was I guess the straw that made me really want to reset

I just realized I was under a lot of stress from work and other things and so took a deep breath and asked what if I am dumb

And I kinda liked where that went and then started exploring HEM scum and saw similarities so I sorta just swapped

[implosion]

I mean if you were convinced by titus to change your mind and vote mathblade instead of hem, then you would've read some post or some idea that was compelling and convincing to you.

You would cite that post/idea as being what convinced you rather than citing titus.

I'm so confused by what you mean here. I cited both HQ and Titus and I've mentioned posts from both of them before that convinced me... so like... in what way am I not citing them??? just because I didn't quote the same posts that i've already discussed a second time? I assume i'm misunderstanding you here.

ok who do you want to flip today?

(but that said, I do think i'll jump back on HEM before voting math atm)

[implosion]

Ari, I also think that like. You are just allergic to townreading me on a fundamental level.

[implosion]

I also want to say Ari calling me scum here is like, probably extremely town for her, I think she would just happily continue to have me in her pocket as scum but doing this is extremely not surprising from town her.

[Harley Quinn]

Examples: His push on Dwlee has no substance behind it. He sr Gamma for “not having found town!him yet”, eventhough Gamma played identically in Koba’s mini normal where they were both town. He sr Ausuka for being “nice about maths” or something. When is being nice ever a valid scumtell and especially for Ausuka who - when is she not nice? His progression on STD went from STD lockscum to STD locktown in pretty much the blink of an eye. He posted that if ANY not ALL of Dwlee, Titus, Gamma flip scum, he would then put me or Implosive in hid PoE. However, I am now extremely confident all 3 are town.

And yes, his entire progression on HEM is not what I’ve experienced with town!Math ever. He initially called HEM his top townread but voted HEM under pressure from Aristelia. Town!Math would never allow his arm to be twisted like that to vote a genuine top tr like that. Town!Math is bullheaded and obstinate to a fault. He is also one of the most anti-survivalistic players as town and I don’t recall Math ever being willing to policy anyone. Sometimes town!Math actually gets it right like in Koba’s mini normal and other times very wrong as in White Flag but there is always substance to his reads no matter how outlandish it looks to others. ISO both games to contast them with this one. Town!Math overflows with conviction and is also consistent with his reads. Here, he seems to change his reads on a dime without rhyme or reason. Town!Math doesn’t change his reads easily and definitely never under pressure.

Also he switched his srs on both Ausuka and Ari when they either voted the way he wanted or tr him. He gave me shit for initially not voting but had no issue with bella not voting, eventhough I had the exact same reason for having not voted as she had.

He had STD and Roden as top trs but is now takinv that at least partially back with STD. He did something similar with Gamma. He referred to them both as T/T but now he’s suddenly scum because he couldn’t find town!him early enough.

There are just so many reasons why Math is scum here.

This post helped me see things a bit clearer and it makes me feel better about HQ, having never played with Mathblade before a lot of meta stuff went over my head so I appreciate this clears that up a little bit.

I do like some of the points here. Obviously there's the point about niceness which I already brought up - I don't think the line of questioning I had there is going to go anywhere so I'm left with my original feeling of 'it doesn't seem like a real thought.' it's fair to say people can often be aggro during games but I think being nice to someone who wished you good luck in your exam is fairly obviously NAI?

I will make a mental note to check Math's hem progression when I finish catching up, I feel like I've read both that it's a policy lynch of sorts and that he was pushed into it?

Pedit: Don't underestimate anime

Don’t use the “L” word. <3

[Harley Quinn]

You are enchanted by Aris, and can't see devil.

That is your entire case?

[Harley Quinn]

Hasn't most of HEM's wagon said they townread him ATP

How is he tied with MathBlade

Kind of a question but if you don't want to count this ok

None of those are investigative

How is 1706 not “investigative”?

[Harley Quinn]

Okay show me in 2272 or KTANE where I asked significant investigative questions early in the game

You asked one very significant question but yeah, Matth sr you for not asking a gazillion questions isn’t ai.

[Harley Quinn]

KTANE: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=89120
2272: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=89392

1053: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=89351
2268 (scum): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=89094

Math needs to stop making bad meta reads. Dwlee actually asked way more questions in the scum game than in the town one.

[Wallflower]

Okay I'm preettty sure I'm set at eliminating HEM over Mathblade.

The key things deciding it for me atm:

- Mathblade's talk of resetting and reconsidering his reads here is soooo opposite of what people have already claimed as Math's town-meta here, that I actually think it's more likely to come from town (because let's face it, town can be unpredictable, do random shit that doesn't make sense etc.) than scum who are more likely to try and replicate what they/other people

think

is their town-meta.

- HEM's posts primarily

still

seem to be about Ari's case on them, which at best is just... not contributing anything of value.. and at worst trying to distract from the wagon by... idk.. hoping that they can spin Ari around in enough circles that the case looks bad and everyone somehow forgets about it? okay idk what the goal is but I'm having trouble seeing it from a town mindset.

[Aristeia]

Ari, I also think that like. You are just allergic to townreading me on a fundamental level.

thats probly true sorry >.<

hopefully hem flips scum and i get shot and you wont have to deal with my nonsense ^_^

[Harley Quinn]

look at hems iso and maths iso

they both mutually townread each other

math is incredibly adamant about defending hem and i twisted his arm to vote hem because regardless of how much he wants to defend hem he knows elimming hem is better than elimming himself

hem has not at all defended math and is already angling to maybe vote for him.

if this is T/S i think hem is much likelier to be S than mathblade is.

But HEM doesn’t seem to care at all if he dies. Would scum!HEM really be okay with that? And why wouldn’t town!HEM vote Math after he locktowned him and nevertheless still voted him? Math is pushing other slots but why is he okay with putting HEM in danger then unless he really thinks HEM is scum?

I’ll say it again, HEM flipping scum in a town!Math world makes little sense wrt his play here. I mean it’s obviously possible but anyone have meta on scum!HEM just giving up like this? I’m actually leaning to agree with Titus that HEM could be a possible miselim but either way, I don’t understand why Math is voting him, given that he keeps pushing other slots.

[Titus]

Spoiler: Why I am convinced the answer is HEM, Math, Ari... but we save Ari until the end in case I'm wrong

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Remember this. We'll be coming back to it.


HEM is a pretty confident universal scumread for everyone. So I'm not going to waste my time there.
Then, we get to Math. His meta is unquestionably strange and hard to put the finger on. I was dealing with the fact Math wasn't pushing theories at all, but he didn't seem to have an agenda. Roden acknowledged this too. Harley Quinn thought it made Math scum, but I wanted to sort out the lack of an agenda.

We're at 1929, I began to get suspicious that Ari was defending a scum!Blade here. Why would Math be suddenly able to play the game after voting out his townread and in an environment where he feels like he cannot give townblocks?

I sat on this for a bit (not long LOL) and discussed HEM + Math together with Roden for a moment. We both observed the same behavior from Math, so that likely meant it was significant and worth exploring. If I could get Ari alone, I could get Ari to articulate a reason to townread Math beyond he'll be useful after HEM flips or he'll give a scumread. I wanted to corner Ari to see if she was actually townreading Math. I didn't predict it to be as illuminating as it was.

In 1945, I start to put feelers out on if Ari is ever willing to vote Math because it does no good to catch Math if the people who have the stomach/fortitude to flip Math are all dead. That's most likely me and HQ. Ari said that she persuaded Math of something which is a rare feat. So Ari would be in that class. So it was worth a line.

In 1952, I claim that scum are going to argue that Math is town because they're a counter to HEM.
Ari immediately does that in the next post.

Ari then starts going back to my old Implo/HEM theory.
I didn't even bother reading the rest of the post for detail once I saw Ari claiming Math's flip spewed him town. I was like nuuhuh biatch.

Ari's post sets out two premises
1) HEM is anti-spew (not 100% sure I agree but I see it and I scumread HEM so ok)
and
2) Math hasn't anti-spew because his flip clears so many.

So that makes me think, was the odd behavior from Math anti-spew?

In 1967, Ari says that when Math sees he's going down that he goes straight into anti-spew and gives a link.

In order to check my theory, I go to the game. I find out who Math is (he's under an alt). I then go to the back of his ISO because that's the most relevant part, establishing how Math sounds when he's anti-spewing. Math's refusal to form a townblock or a cohesive readslist sounds like anti-spew to me.

So I test this theory through a series of questions that I can use no matter the answer. The idea is to get Ari to compare an "unknown" speaker to scum and then compare it to Math's game to see if I can get Ari to defend Math's actual play here or whether Ari would think Math is scummy in a vacuum.

This lets me read Ari to see if Ari is genuinely believing her Math defense and if she is to give her an opportunity to defend the root of the issue, Math's "odd for him" play.

When I posted 1975 asking if the speaker was town or scum, that wasn't the point. No matter what answer Ari gave, I would have told her it was scum that posted. It was a softball designed to have a casual conversation and not inform her that I was actually hunting any particular read in particular since I go off on tangents all the time. That "no tangents" thing might have been ruined but non essential.

Twenty minutes later, Ari says the post is "scum anti-spew". Ari and I both know that Ari has to say it's scum anti-spew. Otherwise, her linking the very game the post comes from is pointless.

Now, unpredicatably, Math comes in and claims ownership of the post in 1994. Now, if I was Ari and a player claimed a known scum post as their own, I'd at least be a little concerned. Instead, Ari is replying to a post from earlier stating she'd be "confused" if Math was scum.

Ari then states that Math stops posting when faced with going down and that's how he "anti-spews". Now, how many of you think that Math can actually stop posting when he gets on a roll? He literally cannot. His anti-spew matches more the text of the post from his micro game that putting in effort isn't worthwhile.

you are talking about one post...

i am talking about the entire iso

math when hes antispewing just shuts up and stops posting

That made me think to compare Math's ISO. Math's tonal irregularities match the last post of that microgame. His ISO is full of it and excuses about why he's not the regular math with theories. No one would listen etc. This isn't a micro game where Math can prod dodge and if he did that would be a scumclaim.

So he just picks fights and never solves.

In 2008, Math says he vibes with himself...when he's scum. Like Math could not be waiving a bigger red flag. He then says if it's not this game it's not relevant which is LOL but adorbs.

In 2011, Ari says that she reads Math by volume and

intention

but how can she be reading Math's posts for intention when she "stopped reading" his posts "awhile ago" according to 1998?

After a bit, Math realizes that he should probably 180 on me. He tries to claim my reaching out to him was scummy in 2020 in an abrupt about face. The rationale is laughable.

Ari's response to this conflicting information and sibling fight is to turn back to the implosion read. 2022
Math just tries to copy this theory by adding me with HEM and Implo.

Now remember that question from before...

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Wallflower's wrong post in 2064 is more consistent with what I expect town to do. Wallflower's wrong, but she's defending the read with substance and not deflecting like the repeated attempts to turn to HEM without saying how Math is town. Wallflower says how Math is town. (No Town!Math never does a full reset here, but it's important that Wallflower defended the position and not the accuracy.) Wallflower still has a chance to be scum if I'm wrong about Ari but I fully expect not to be.

[Titus]

Ari, I also think that like. You are just allergic to townreading me on a fundamental level.

thats probly true sorry >.<

hopefully hem flips scum and i get shot and you wont have to deal with my nonsense ^_^

The only way you're getting shot is on n3, by a vig.

[Harley Quinn]

Right now, here's my overall feelings in the game.

There is good scum equity in HEM and Enchant. On HEM, I have some trepidation, but less than I do in a usual d1 scumread by a wide margin. On Enchant I have literally no trepidation and I'd happily yeet them at a moment's notice tbh, "proper" play be damned.

I am over time convincingly seeing scum equity in MathBlade, mostly as a result of HQ's points but also some of Titus's.

I think Aristeia, HQ, Gamma, STD, Titus are all simply town right now. I think Wallflower and Roden feel pretty town, less than the first group. Ausuka maybe is somewhere between those two groups. I am tending to lean more town on Dwlee at this exact moment because their belligerence feels unmotivated, I think the combination of their just sort of refusing to play the way people want them to and the early "selfish" reads (i.e. the "fmpov this is town" thing and one other) paint a picture of town who just genuinely doesn't have all that much investment in how they're perceived.

That leaves I think just Bellaphant who is probably the only player I have at null right now.

Yeah I agree with that. Enchant doesn’t seem to care about if HEM is flipped and is lightly pushing Ari. However, Enchant/HEM don’t look SvS here at all. So I don’t think it makes sense for both to be scum. But Ari is right in what she said right at the beginning of this game, so based off of their play here it seems more likely than not, something could be up if Enchant either doesn’t die or towntell by D3. Either one is sufficient.

[Titus]

I'm going to grab a drink and wait for HQ to catch up. This'll be good.

[Harley Quinn]

look at hems iso and maths iso

they both mutually townread each other

math is incredibly adamant about defending hem and i twisted his arm to vote hem because regardless of how much he wants to defend hem he knows elimming hem is better than elimming himself

hem has not at all defended math and is already angling to maybe vote for him.

if this is T/S i think hem is much likelier to be S than mathblade is.

The way that MathBlade wound up voting HEM was really weird. Twisting his arm is kind of accurate but it also felt very... concessional. HEM never defended math per se but did

hard

townread him early. I'm just not sure I understand Math-town's motivation for that vote, similar to what Titus has said, why should Math town concede it at all? If he's this very belligerent, uncompromising player, shouldn't he not be willing to vote a townread like 3 or 4 days before deadline?

Well that’s what I’ve been saying, town!Math is extremely anti-survivalistic and he clearly isn’t confidently sr HEM so why vote him unless it’s out of self-pres, which is something more likely for scum!Math than town!Math. If I’m misconstruing this Math, feel free to correct me but based on your pushes on both me and Dwlee, it really doesn’t make a helluva lot of sense for you to be voting HEM especially since he’s in actual danger of being flipped.

[Harley Quinn]

I kind of hate how much this game has become so harshly centralized on "here's deep analysis on what happens if HEM is scum or Math is scum or they're both scum". I do scumread both of those slots right now but it still feels like, sort of a lot of rhetorical eggs in one or two baskets.

But alas.

Yeah, you did have to twist Math's arm to vote HEM... but he did vote HEM. Actions speak louder, etc.

To be clear at this moment I'm really undecided on which of the two is the better lim/which one is likelier to be the scum if exactly one of them is scum, just trying to reason it out.

Yeah I’m hoping to get some time to read over the slots and work this out. I agree with Ari that HEM’s check in was not at all inspiring but I disagree with assuming that Mathblade as scum wouldn’t try something new (such as WKing).

@Ari, I have no meta on scum!Math WK town but he has seen RC do it as both alignments. He even wrongly sr RC in a D & D type of setup for saving lhf!Lovebird. That’s obviously not here nor there but thought I’d mention it anyway.

[Harley Quinn]

Wallflower I would need to see a case about tbh.

I really think Dwlee or HQ or Implosion are more likely to hit scum

But I don’t have a hard tr on Wallflower

This is why you don’t get listened to.

[Harley Quinn]

mathblade tried pretty hard to derail the hem wagon he screamed, he was rude, he flung weird moonlogic everywhere - thats a sign of geniune belief imo and makes very little sense for scum!blade to do for town!hem

has hem done anything to derail the mathblade wagon?

HEM has been out of commission

Dude is recovering from painful surgery.