Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Where did he say that? Show me.

[Rad]

I'm on my phone. Go read Spartans early game iso. I dunno why you wouldn't have already done that anyway. Also why not call me out when I made that claim in 864?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

How early are we talking? Because in 576 he talks about one of Bella/myself being scum and pocketing the other as town.

This would imply that he no longer scum read both slots, if indeed he did at all. Further to that, referencing a super early post to create a mid D2 push is beyond awful.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Mentions it even earlier in 307

What the fuck is going on here

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Also, I believe you mentioned Cheap in 864, no? Whereas, in Somnus' case, despite Cheap doing the EXACT same things Bella and myself did he has been COMPLETELY OMITTED.

Why? Why is Cheap so different?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Wow.

You have to go all the way back to 282 to see Spartan considering a Bella/BBT team. Not only this, he posts twice after this specifically asking if one of us could be scum pocketing the other as town.

Wow. I'm blown away.

[Nero Cain]

Vote Count 2.04

Corwinoid (2):

BlueBloodedToffee, Bellaphant

BlueBloodedToffee (1):

Somnus

Not Voting (4):

Corwinoid, Cheapside, whiskey delta, Rad

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is June 15

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-06-16 14:15:00)

[Bellaphant]

The thing I understand least about sonmus' post is why, again, they talk about elim-ing sonmus. They did this day one as well, to prove vasex was scum (which, well, that didn't work).

I don't feel like Spartan ended the day scum reading me.

The other thing I don't get is: why does scum Bella make her doubts about scum!bbt so clear? I know distancing is a thing but like....you've read bbt. Do you not think that, if we're both scum, we don't just agree to town read the fuck out if each other? Plus, I'd never want us this closely linked by vca.

Ugh, somnus's post is so full of bsd takes but I can't work out if they are wxummg bad takes.

[Bellaphant]

....you know, I've been totally gaslit. 'this is what you get when you are on every e-1 wagon': I've just checked my iso and I was on 2. Which may be 'every' , but is also....2. one of which went through foe reasons discussed ad naseum already. I make four vores yesterday: RVs, which I then keep on when I find sonmu scummy and move off when they talk to me, a shitty pressure vote on msq, Spartan, and vasex.

Plus, 282-293 (Ish) are all discussions of the fact that I (and possibly bbt) miscounted the votes on Spartan, as there was still an RVs vote for his replacement.

@somnus: was I lying when I said I had miscounted? In your opinion. Was bbt?

[Bellaphant]

I made the same amount of votes as cheap. The thing is, they has less than ten posts and were also on the two 'big wagons'.

The thing is, I don't actually think somnus thinks I'm scum. I'd like to think they are town and I'm just collatoral damage to their bbt read but I also feel really mis-repped by that post. Like...'bella would have inevitably put me at e-1' while I'm saying there are two people I'd want gone over somnus.

[Rad]

The other thing I don't get is: why does scum Bella make her doubts about scum!bbt so clear? I know distancing is a thing but like....you've read bbt. Do you not think that, if we're both scum, we don't just agree to town read the fuck out if each other? Plus, I'd never want us this closely linked by vca.

WIFOM

Just saying. Scum can play however they want. There's nothing forcing a scum bella bbt team to town read each other openly and no reason for us to believe that's how a scum!Bella would necessarily play here.

....you know, I've been totally gaslit. 'this is what you get when you are on every e-1 wagon': I've just checked my iso and I was on 2. Which may be 'every' , but is also....2. one of which went through foe reasons discussed ad naseum already. I make four vores yesterday: RVs, which I then keep on when I find sonmu scummy and move off when they talk to me, a shitty pressure vote on msq, Spartan, and vasex.

Plus, 282-293 (Ish) are all discussions of the fact that I (and possibly bbt) miscounted the votes on Spartan, as there was still an RVs vote for his replacement.

@somnus: was I lying when I said I had miscounted? In your opinion. Was bbt?

That's not gaslighting, that's stating the truth. Truth can be deceptive though, sure. Is that what you're saying? That he's being deceptive with his claim here? That would be pretty scummy huh. Or is it just an observation?

Do you read Somnus as town or scum here?

Are you interested in following through with somnus's plan to lim him to see if he flips green? Is this scum with a master plan of taking you and bbt out or town with a big, confident read?

If he's a town read for you, why are you claiming he's gaslighting you? Why would town gaslight?

Must be a scum read.

Wanna vote him out?

[Bellaphant]

With mine and bbts history though, Its the choice I would make. Course it's wofom but we do have history

I haven't got a clue re: somnus, that's obvious from my response. He's got motivation to do what he did as either, and there's stuff he said that makes sense but an awful lot that doesn't.

I read people better one on one. Id like somnus to respond to my response res

[BlueBloodedToffee]

The nonsense that I quick hammered Vasex needs to stop.

I stated intent to hammer right after Cheap voted (nothing new to learn from Cheap). Then Rad and Whiskey both popped into thread with nothing useful to contribute and then Corwin came into the thread. Including myself, that is 5 players from the player list in thread since I stated intent, which only leaves 3 people who hadn't posted. Bella, Somnus and Spartan.

I gave Vasex a chance for final reads and he wrote 'f u', what else was there to learn? It was nothing even close to a quick hammer and that narrative needs to disppear.

Meaning, so far, Somnus' case is full of shit. Spartan did question a BBT/Bella team but it was VERY early game and he showed two posts AFTER this that indicated he no longer thought that. It was nowhere near his final thoughts on the game state at end of D1.

Has accused Bella and myself of being scum because we were on 2 conf town wagons. So was Cheap... What is the difference?

And says I'm scum for quick-hammering Vasex when it was absolutely anything but a quick hammer.

I'll read and respond to the rest soon enough but this should already show that Somnus' post is just awful.

Also, the whole 'Hey you can elim me first because I'm so totally town I'd be completely OK with that' is scummy.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Somnus acting like scum WKing isn't a thing when he was town reading Vasex. Again, scum could easily avoid that elim and then point to everyone on it about how terrible it was.

Also, 'having his pick of BOTH Corwin or Cheap' to push as a mislim on D2 would require both of them to be town and I don't believe this is the case.

I'd be interested in knowing why scum!Somnus kills BBT though, that's definitely not a thing.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Wait, shit. Is it just Somnus/Corwin?

That whole thing from Somnus came after Corwin starting coming under some serious pressure. It's a bold attempt at a complete flip on the game state. You flip one of me or Bella and I believe that takes you to ELo for D3, which is obviously not good.

Wow. It's just Somnus/Corwin.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I said you can't explain your scum read and have now moved onto a second scum read (Spartan, take note of what I said earlier about scum hunting scum teams) that you likely can't explain any better.

Like, Rad is scum because BBT is scum and BBT is scum because Rad is scum, right?

Sums it all up pretty well?

Also, Somnus was pushing Rad for a long time without any basis for the read. Before switching onto me, without any basis for his read.

Also, please note Somnus' failure to explain pretty much anything which you haven't referenced at all in your read of him.

No-one is saying Somnus should be playing perfect. I'm merely saying that Town!Somnus should at the very least be able to explain his scum reads. He couldn't explain the Rad read and when pushed on it, he switched to me, again with no explanation.

Explaining fabricated reads is difficult for scum.

Secondly, his 'dat timing though' is again off the basis of Scum!Rad defending Scum!BBT which as I am sure you understand, I have a problem understanding.

Find something in Somnus' read that isn't Rad is scum because BBT is scum and vice versa.

If he has given reasons, find reasons for his scum read on me.

Oh, I see. Am I scum with Cheap, now? Doesn't matter who I'm scum with, right? Just so long as you can try to get me out of this game. Is Rad town now?

On the flip side, I felt like Somnus avoided me D1 and now is trying to pair me with anyone, just so long as he gets the wagon through on me.

Somnus has also provided very little throughout the game outside of Vasex obvtown duh, Rad scum (tunnel) BBT scum (tunnel).

I feel like some things get lost when there is a 1 to 1 conversation happening.

All of these posts are still mighty relevant. I would love to hear Somnus' explain his reasons for scum reading me outside of 'BBT is scum with x'

[Corwinoid]

Spoiler:

I typed most of this this morning before I left when we were floating around post 878. Holding off/not finishing it ended up work out nicely anyway with what I've seen since then. I know it's long, but I'm going to give the thread a chance to breathe for a while after this and I'll be back sometime later tomorrow assuming we're not already in Night 2 by then.

Well this will be fun...Post 864 may have just blown the game wide open, and I think post 871 may have just unintentionally solved the game. Here are my updated reads and likely final reads of the game:

Town: Corwin, Rad, Cheap, Whiskey
Scum: BlueBlood, Bella

The timeline for Day 2 so far:

-Bella states not to rush Day 2 after BlueBlood and I cross-vote.
-Rad posts some VCA and mentions that Spartan had named BBT/Bella as a very possible scum team (I had forgotten this until Rad's 864.)
-Rewind. Spartan is the night-kill Night 1 after parking his vote on BlueBlood and naming BlueBlood/Bella as a scum-team.
-BlueBlood comes in shortly after Rad's VCA post and deposits three god-awful steamers, throwing shit in every direction and hoping it sticks somewhere.
-10 minutes later, Bella, WHO HAS BEEN ON EVERY E-1 WAGON SO FAR ALONG WITH BLUEBLOOD (including on both of the players who have flipped green so far), and barely 24 hours into Day 2 (after saying not to rush the vote), drops in and leaves a naked vote on Corwin to put him to E-1. Despite "not quite willing to give him a town-read yet", has literally followed his every step and been on every wagon with him.

To Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap, regardless of what you think of me as a person/whether or not you think I'm scum, flipping BlueBlood today essentially sorts 3 of the 7 remaining players. It sorts BlueBlood (obviously), myself (unless you somehow think Somnus/BlueBlood has been scum-theater), and Corwin (he'd essentially become lock-town). If Vasex, Spartan, and myself were all wrong about BlueBlood and he has played the most baffling, borderline game-throwing town game ever, so be it. Let me remind you that Vasex was quick-hammered by BlueBlood, Bella parked her vote on Vasex and left it there, not seeming even remotely bothered by the possibility of a quick-hammer (but now wants everyone to take their time on Day 2 despite having just created a very early E-1) and Spartan is now dead. All of this happened after there were no takers by town to hammer Spartan.

If any of the 4 of you still think I'm scum, that's fine.

You can even flip me today

. I offer this as someone who currently has zero votes on them. I don't mind. If we go with me today, once I flip green, flip BlueBlood and Bella back to back days. If I'm wrong, so be it. It's not a game of perfect information. And considering we lost the most OP town power role that exists in Newbie Games due to a quick-hammer on Day 1,

this is about as good of a chance of winning this game as you could ever dream of after that Day 1 debacle.

But to those of you who are still going along with BlueBlood and Bella, I suggest you look at where it has gotten you so far, and if you continue to follow them, you will be the next lemming going over the cliff (fun fact: lemmings don't actually do this, but I digress). They've already set up Corwin and Cheap as the next two/final Day eliminations after it became clear I wasn't going to be a super easy mis-lim today.

Take a quick browse through Spartan's ISO, particularly posts 273, 279, 282, 287 (this is a good one), 289 (another really good one), 294, 296 (this is what ended up happening!), 300, 302, 306, etc.

Look as far back through the game as you're willing to under the pretenses of the exact scum-team being BlueBlood and Bella, and tell me you somehow disagree. Hell, if you don't have it in you to go all the way back to the beginning, at least go to late Day 1 and read from there, and ESPECIALLY read what has transpired so far on Day 2 under the pretenses of the aforementioned team.

Literally THE ENTIRE game makes sense when you look at it through those lenses.

Again, after that, tell me with a straight face that you somehow disagree.

If you still have your doubts about me, you should be on-board with flipping me today and then flipping them back to back, no questions asked, after I flip green

.


I humbly offer to Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap one of the following two options. I obviously can't make you do either, but it would be greatly appreciated and would significantly advance your win-con if you take me up on one of the following:

1.) Flip me today. Again, I don't mind. I'll be green. But after you do,

FOLLOW THIS SOLVE

. Once I flip green, you'll see that I'm not partnered with anyone, have no reason to personally protect Corwin/Cheapside, and that my motivations are clean. The only risk here is that somehow, Bella is town and helped mafia in every single vote and play in this entire game. I don't think that's the case, but it's still technically a risk.

2.) Flip BlueBlood. This sorts his slot, mine, and Corwin, and makes my solve very very likely. If after a red flip here, Bella mysteriously flips town on Day 3 (I don't think she will), it still wouldn't lose the game. Whoever is still alive would have presumably a 3P eLo on Day 4. So even if this somehow is not the exact solve, you have a free ticket to Day 4 eLo unless you want to tell me that there's zero scum in BlueBlood and Bella. After finishing this post and reading back, at the very least from Day 2 and looking at the wagons that have transpired so far,

NO ONE should think that that's a reality.

I believe Rad was "town-binned" to help contribute to mafia winning in eLo via his mis-vote. Same can potentially be said for Whiskey who I'm pretty sure, prior to this post, was going to be killed Night 2, and still might. The same pivot to town-reading Spartan occurred the moment it became clear that town wasn't interested in hammering Spartan (check out 852, Whiskey. This was essentially you marked for dead). How do you go from wanting to hammer someone 7 posts and MAYBE a day into replacing in, to "Spartan is probably town, Bella"? This dude ain't town. And if he is, we were screwed from the start.

As a reminder, as of this post, I have zero votes on me and am in no danger of elimination. I offered myself up as an elimination on Day 1 to blow open the game and didn't receive any takers. With my flip, the scum team's narrative would have been in absolute shambles going into Day 2. Considering how much more information we have now, they probably should have taken me up on my offer. And I'm now offering it again if needed.

If you somehow think I'm doing this to try and save a hypothetical Scum!Somnus partner of Corwin/Cheap despite making the same offer on Day 1, again, I am offering myself as the Day 2 elimination to the 4 of you.

As a further reminder, Corwin started Day 2 saying that the vote today should be between myself and Cheap. He then followed it up later on in the day and mentioned that he had gotten myself and Spartan mixed up when he could have stayed on me. If he had, Bella inevitably would have put me at E-1 or waited for one of the other three of you to put me at E-1 and she would have hammered at some point after. Once it became clear that Corwin was town-reading me and had me mixed up with Spartan and that Cheap was town-reading me, the plan to try and eliminate Somnus on Day 2 quickly vanished. BlueBlood quickly abandoned his vote on me, pivoted to Corwin, and even tried to bargain with me to join him. They've since been putting out feelers for thoughts on Cheapside as well. He and Bella have been lining up Cheapside and Corwin to be the last two Day Eliminations since.

To Bella, if I'm wrong (and even if I'm right), it's nothing personal. But if I am wrong, this is just kind of how it goes when you're on every E-1 wagon, including the two that have both flipped green so far, have very quickly created another one nearly at the start of Day 2, and have been on the same page as BlueBlood every step of the way (despite allegedly not quite being ready to town-read him). Scum often throw their partner right in the middle of their reads and then gradually town-read them. Hell, both of you currently have the EXACT scum-pool of Somnus, Cheapside, and Corwin. What are the odds considering you don't quite town-read him? In order for you to be town in this game, it would now require everyone to assume that you were essentially an honorary mafia member.

There's not a rational conversation I could have with BlueBlood here, so no offense to him personally outside of the confines of the game, but I'm not interested in his thoughts on this post and will not be engaging with his response to this. My bullshit filter is in full effect.

So that leaves 4 other people. For this to happen, 3 of the 4 of you would need to be on-board. Again, I can't dictate or force anyone to do anything. I'm 1 player in the game out of the remaining 7. But since I know that at an absolute bare minimum, 3 of the 4 of you are town (and I'm now pretty sure all 4 of you are), this should be a no-brainer.

So again, to Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap: Do we have a deal?

P.S: As someone not even in danger of elimination here, I offer you this: Don't you think that maybe, JUST MAYBE, if I'm scum in this game, I easily join the pack and push Vasex through as "a policy vote", get away completely free of blame afterwards (ESPECIALLY based on our early interactions together), and then have my pick of Corwin or Cheap to just go along with on Day 2? If I'm scum, with the way this game has gone, we'd be in Night 2 right now and I could have hammered Corwin or jumped on the suspicions of Cheap. And that JUST MAYBE, I kill BlueBlood Night 1 if he's town?

Instead, out of the three players who were hard town-reading me on Day 1, Scum!Somnus decided it would be a brilliant idea to allow my partner to push through a Day 1 wagon on one of them and then night-kill another (after not pushing Spartan through on Day 1 anyway). Doesn't seem very effective for me to be this damn picky as scum. I also have zero reason as scum to now be presenting Bella as the solve, considering she has no votes on her, and isn't really hard scum-read by anyone else still alive in the game (as far as I know, although it looks like since I started this post this morning, Rad has at the very least referenced his scum-read of Bella from Day 1). There's WIFOM and then there's just "fucking stupid." For me to be scum here, it would definitely fall under "fucking stupid."

P.S.S: As a reminder, a doctor claim by anyone at E-1 is now meaningless. If we're in A1, there will be a counter-claim. In order for the doctor to still have any more value than a vanilla townie (since the cop is already dead), they would have to make TWO saves on night kills to gain an extra mis-lim for town. That is extremely unlikely to happen at this point, and if this solve is correct, we might not even have two more night phases. If we're in C1, all scum would have to do at E-1 is claim doctor (in C1, the only town PR is a cop), and if they're believed, could coast to the end-game under a fake "clear". Only the death of a hypothetical mafia roleblocker at this point would prove that there's a doctor in the game. Otherwise, we're in C1 where it's just a cop. I don't want to open up a discussion on power roles further than that, but I advise you to keep this in mind.

Thank-you for coming to my TedTalk. I'm going to let the thread breathe for a while.

I can buy this. Bella has been my hardest read all game and BBT/Bella makes sense.

Their interactions this game have been... odd

VOTE: spartan



Producing content but I don't get town pings

VOTE: Spartan

Will provide more soon. Glad to see the game is picking up, from a brief skim it looks like everybody is contributing now. Makes the game a lot easier

They did this kind of block voting on me later also, a few more posts apart.

I don't think Bella has tried to pocket me at all. In fact, she has outright questioned a few things that I've done in this game. This might seem arrogant but I don't think scum!Bella would want to draw my attention to her at all. She would pocket me and just kill me.

Can I be town now, Bella?

Probably, but I've got my eye on you. I also like that your ego hasn't changed: here's some wifom, I wouldn't have nk'ed you as scum ;p

This feels incredibly manufactured.

Rad, talk to me about Cheap being the 'easy vote'[/quote]

@rad, explain the cheap thoughts to me? Coz I had a fairly irrational but strong tr on them at the end of the day but then I looked their votes, and then their reads post.

Looking at the reasoning on the votes on vasex is probably somewhat worth it.

@bbt stop thinking my thoughts.

Scum wouldn't be this blatant, right? They wouldn't both pile on at the same time, and re use the literal same words.



Right?

Spoiler:

Omg that's a blast from the past. You ok, mate?

I tell people I haven't been scum In years, I swear the last time was with bbt.

It would be an ironic truth if it was this game, no?

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

Rad, whiskey, are you in?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Ew

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Corwin, why does odd = scummy? Secondly, why are you ignoring Cheap literally block voting as well?

Why is this narrative a thing? Hey, BBT and Bella keep voting the same way. Yeah but so does Cheap. Cheap doesn't fit our narrative though so we're going to ignore that.

What???

You also just quoted 3 posts as if it were a conversation. There were almost 300 posts between the first and second post in the 'manufactured conversation'. Misrep much?

It's Corwin/Somnus. Thank you very much.

[Rad]

941 is incredibly weak reasoning.

I'm not voting bbt because Corwin thinks they have interacted strangely. Even if they have, that could still be 1 scum 1 town or even just 2 town that you have a bad read on. I disagree that it feels manufactured. Chit chat back and forth is not scummy or townie, it's null until a red flip that you can use to start trying to find a scum partner.

I'm not voting until I see whiskey and cheap respond here. I'm leaning scum on Bella and Corwin, though that scum team doesn't seem likely, so maybe just one of them.

This is some high effort, high risk play by somnus for it to be Corwin somnus, so I doubt it. His frustration with this game feels legit and that's a townie frustration. Maybe.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Effort =/= town

Why is it high risk? Somnus has literally tried to derail a Corwin wagon by shifting attention onto me.

Why is it legit town frustration and not legit scum frustration?

[Rad]

Effort =/= town

Why is it high risk? Somnus has literally tried to derail a Corwin wagon by shifting attention onto me.

Why is it legit town frustration and not legit scum frustration?

It's high risk because most scenarios set up somnus with us killing him. There's 1 where we kill you instead. That feels overly risky to me. And for what? To save Corwin, really? That's a stretch.

It just feels town to me. "Why isn't anyone listening to meee!?" Is such a newbie town reaction and that's the feeling in getting from him. He was getting frustrated with things earlier and it culminated in his huge gambit. If it's scum it's incredibly try hard and risky.

[whiskey delta]

I read Somnus last night before stepping away for the evening but have been thinking over it sense. My immediate question is simply - well, what if you’re wrong? There’s no way scum play this openly together. And then I start to think about the game, it’s flow, the interactions, the wagons, the NK. And it all does kind of make sense. I was saying yesterday that maybe this was scum!Cheap killing Spartan to put heat on them since all three were on the wagons. The simpler answer is just that what we see is what is really happening. I want to read Spartan’s ISO for myself but off the top of my head he was SRing the wagoners and I was actually SRing Spartan for suggesting they’d be scum together. We were both the most TR players at the end of D1 (maybe?) but he got killed instead. Why? Like I said it wasn’t a PR hunt because he hit E-1 and coolly called everyone out for it but no claim. He flipped VT. Why him over me? My bottom 3 was [Somnus, Cheap, Corwin]. What were his again?

My personal read on Bella was town but I don’t know them so I could easily be wrong. My read on BBT stems more on “no way scum plays like this” but really what has he done that could he said helps Town exclusively? Even wagoning “for pressure” or whatever has benefits for scum. Corwin hitting E-1 that quick feeds into this theory as well.

Thinking all the way back to the first few pages, one the first pings I had was Bella skipping over sus on Italiano and voting mq.bosco instead. It bothered me then because it wasn’t consistent but it makes a lot more sense thru this lens. Couple that with some later interactions “when was the last time you were scum?” “With you actually!” And it all feeds the tinfoil.

I’m not saying Somnus has got it right but holy shit does this thread narrative point to that pairing. But like - what if he really did just nail it?? There is a lot of things that point to it being more than just theory.

[whiskey delta]

Hi, any thoughts on the game?

Somnus v-v-very interesting and - suddenly - make me feel nervous. Don't know why. You, Bella, looks towny. Italiano playing not like another game in which I can see him. Vasex is joking like towny. But I can't say that I have some reasons to give scum-role to somebody at this moment.

i will be later, not today. too lazy and also busy

here is mafia
VOTE: ItalianoVD

Come on man, I was gonna claim scum and now I have to lie about being town!

So no bueno huh? No one picked up on this? Oh well too late.

Yeah I noticed. You were both joking though? :shrug:

Yup and wanted to see who would jump on me.

@rad, considering we've had a no show and replace out, I'm not expecting day one to be hugely busy. Day one is often a crapshoot, you'll learn to roll with it.

I don't really think italiano thinks anyone would jump on that statement, so that whole interaction is weird to me.

VOTE: msq bosco

Here’s the bit I was talking about. I pulled the relevant pre-vote posts as well.

[whiskey delta]

I think back to D2 start where I am showing signs of going after Cheap/Corwin to which I received praise and TRs from BBT/Bella.

Town-binned.

Has anyone asked what reads these two actually have on each other? It’s the only question that really matters tbh.