Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[Bellaphant]

No worries, night.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I find it very hard to town read somnus when none of the follow up is there: he's fixated on me being shit town in the last newbie, but the newbie before that we had a 'perfect' game and I was on both scum elims. I've tried talking to somnus about Luk ewarm in my last game, and how it impacts my read on you ..nothing. I've asked them about the e-2 mistake, which I do still think is important - if people want to scum read you for e-1, then they have to decide whether you knew it was e-1, nothing. Even the fact I've bought up he played the elim me gambit for vasex and was wrong... nothing.

This is exactly the same thing that gives me pause as well and I have mentioned it several times. He hasn't engaged with anything in thread for a long time that is outside of his own agenda.

I just think he is bad town stuck in a tunnel. That post felt super town and just big ego (which I can relate to). I've solved the game guys, here comes a super important post and I'm so proud of myself. You know? It could be scum excited about what they feel is a genuine looking push but yeah, just doesn't feel like scum to me.

There have been bits of both cheap and somnus I could town read but then it gets drowned out.

Corwin is still a huge pile of null to me, which is worrying.

Cheap's posting style in general reads town to me. But again, when you look at the thoughts/content behind them there just isn't much consistency or natural flow. His posts feel forced (I think he explained this earlier with his editing posts comment)

Corwin is very likely scum. I can elim him or Cheap today. That's where I'm at right now.

[Bellaphant]

I think any town points got trashes when he spent 100s of words basically calling everyone rubbish - where's the town motivation?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I can't argue against that

[Bellaphant]

So? It's a bit of a nail in the coffin for me, but it feels like you've been trying to move off him ever since that post, which just feels weird.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

What is weird about it?

A number of things have happened since then that I feel I've explained pretty well?

[Bellaphant]

I dunno, feels like the town got behind a somnus elim and then he dropped out of your lim pool. I know you feel differently about that one post but I'm not sure it saves the whole of... everything

[Rad]

Rad and Whisky haven't been under pressure today. Not much I can find that's alignment indicative.

I wandered into cheap's iso and this pinged me.

I get this take for whiskey. He's kinda lurker and swoops in and out randomly and everyone has a town read on him.

But for me? Excuse me, what? I haven't given you enough content to make a read on me? Are you kidding?

What's with this claim that I haven't been under pressure? What more do you want to see? People to think I'm scum? How about you apply some pressure if you believe that's what it will take to read me properly, or are you content to just sit there and complain that no one else is doing it?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I dunno, feels like the town got behind a somnus elim and then he dropped out of your lim pool. I know you feel differently about that one post but I'm not sure it saves the whole of... everything

You're right, it is only one post (well two posts technically) but I just find it very difficult to believe it came from Scum. Having said that, I read his latest Newbie game again where he was scum and it was very good (with plenty of those long winded, content-y posts so :shrug:)

I just think there are better elims than Somnus today

[Cheapside]

...

Rad and Whisky haven't been under pressure today. Not much I can find that's alignment indicative.

I wandered into cheap's iso and this pinged me.

I get this take for whiskey. He's kinda lurker and swoops in and out randomly and everyone has a town read on him.

But for me? Excuse me, what? I haven't given you enough content to make a read on me? Are you kidding?

What's with this claim that I haven't been under pressure? What more do you want to see? People to think I'm scum? How about you apply some pressure if you believe that's what it will take to read me properly, or are you content to just sit there and complain that no one else is doing it?

I haven't found much alignment indicative stuff on you today, because I don't think you've been under that much pressure, and that's usually what it takes to get a read.

I mean, you've posted stuff and participated in the game a lot today, sure, that's content, but you don't seem weak enough for me to have a strong read on you based entirely on that. All I have to go on is your response to the D1 wagon, which isn't nothing, and is what I'm basing most of my tr on you on. It's not D1, I'm not going to put pressure on you for no real reason. This... isn't a big deal.


1071 might be. I'm going to have to take a very careful look at that. There's something I don't understand going on, I really expected the Somnus lim to happen.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

VOTE: Somnus

[humaneatingmonkey]

Vote Count 2.10

Somnus (3):

Rad, Corwinoid, BlueBloodedToffee (

E-1

)

BlueBloodedToffee (2):

Somnus, Cheapside

Not Voting (2):

whiskey delta, Bellaphant

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is June 15

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-06-16 14:15:00)

mod note:

i'll fix up the game in my free time. sorry for the state of things.

[Bellaphant]

We still have time to hear from whiskey before the hammer. (intent, again)

[Rad]

Whiskey afk for 40 hours.

Come back whiskey

[humaneatingmonkey]

whiskey delta has been prodded.

[Bellaphant]

There is definitely enough stuff in rad's iso to create a read on them. Like, most of it is town but there's definitely some red flags to which you could apply pressure if you wanted to.

[whiskey delta]

Sorry everyone. Busy weekend but I will get on this today

[whiskey delta]

Okay, I'm caught up. I went all the way back to p32 and reread from there so I'm just gonna thought dump for a bit and then read back again to address any of the stuff that I thought was worth mentioning again.

I was SR Somnus D1 for what I thought were tunnel-y votes (typically find this scummy) and tone. Tone has somewhat improved D2, though I dislike a lot of the grandstanding stuff, and the tunnel is still present. On the surface I want to say I don't think scum gambit in such a manner (I think in a world where it's BBT/Somnus they just thunderdome ITT instead of setting up flip them/flip me arguments) but I do feel the anger is a bit unwarranted. I get that Town got screwed pretty hard by the play of Vasex and their elim, but it's still just a game. There are no real awards for being right or wrong, so in the future maybe don't be so all or nothing when it comes to your approach. BBT/Somnus not M/M as far as I'm concerned, and possibly even T/T. I'm just not convinced of a Somnus red flip even after everything.

Corwin bothers me. The mixup explanation still doesn't make a lot of sense to me because the reason to SR Somnus was correct (he's still tunneling, even now) so I have a hard time wrapping my head around that and how it went from scum!Somnus to notscum!Somnus because Spartan to wagoning BBT because of Somnus to now back to scum!Somnus. I know reads flip but I feel like Corwin is just going with whatever path of least resistance presents itself in a few spots. Scum are creatures of opportunity IME. I'm not sure how to handle the Rad gambit explanation when you consider that Somnus/BBT/Bella had all mentioned some concern but didn't bite on the wagon. Damage control for a bad push?

Rad is still just Town to me. I called this D1 upon reentry and still feel that way. He's doing work, he's solving. He's the right level of paranoid but also confident enough in his own reads to stand his ground. If this guy is scum then I really need to stop playing Mafia for good. Even a few years' rust and I still think this dude is obvTown. Don't agree 100% with his reads but I do trust that I am not being manipulated here.

BBT is still not a bad flip here but I don't think it's impossible they are Town. Earlier I said if they flip red then I would turbo elim Bella next and I still stand by that. I put them at E-1 Saturday partially because I wanted to see how they'd handle the hot seat but also because I think the chances of them being scum are still high (especially considering Rad's meta dive). I unvoted because I figured Cheapside was likely going here, and was right about that, so I do feel justified in that regard otherwise we'd be in N2 already. If there's one thing you have gotten right this game @BBT (if you're Town) it's that read you make on me there. I do tend to TR people who fight their elim hard, which I'm aware of, so I'm trying to temper that some, but I do think BBT has been counter punching well since Somnus dropped his first big BBT/Bella post. It's all WIFOM which makes it hard to analyze, but I feel there was plausible reason for scum to hammer Vasex without fear (doubly so if you consider him not claiming would indicate VT - so no fall out for hammering a PR, oops) and I do believe there is merit to the idea that he was running up wagons for PR reads. Having said that, it's apparent this could just be their play style and finding the subtly between Town/scum make all the difference. This is a lot of words to say null but I think a red flip on Cheap/Corwin clears this slot.

Bella's 818 was really good when I looked at it a second time. The basis of Cheap's SR here is that Bella, as an apparently strong player and SE slot, is playing bad/weak. I guess that's fair to say if you have high expectations for SE players (it's literally three games to become SE?) but also feels a bit indefensible from Bella's standpoint. I need to read Bella more closely again because there have been other posts that rubbed me the wrong way. The "Whiskey and Rad are 'the town'" feels pockety if you see a world where it's Bella/BBT and Rad/me are the Townies who are currently helping them. Then again, maybe we've just got it narrowed down correctly and Town is doing the Town thing where everyone second guesses and chases their own tail.

Cheapside still pings me. Opening D2 with reads made before the NK feels a little weird, especially leaving in the part about Spartan. You took the time to mark it out, why not just delete it? Can't really explain my impression other than it feels intentional, like meant to make the post seem more genuine. No way I would make a read on the guy I NK'd, right? As stated above I think their angle for SR Bella is also dubious (stealing your word here) because it relies on the idea that Bella "should" be better if they are Town. Why? What experience do you have with Bella to suggest this? I'm also suspicious of their read on me because it seems they are sort of holding out on making a call, which leaves them a path to call me scum in D3 after presumably Town mislims today again and I don't get killed. For all the talk this weekend about Spartan's reads pointing at BBT, they likewise mention Cheapside quite a bit. There's one even postulating that Cheap/Corwin could be partners and Cheap was early distancing with all the mq.bosco policy elim talk (on like pg7 of the game) which I pointed on D1 as suspect so maybe I (and others) have been chasing the wrong lead.

It's been a wild ride but I think I have come full circle to [Cheapside/Corwin] again.

[whiskey delta]

Corwin is still a huge pile of null to me, which is worrying.

Right back at you Bella.

If you think Cheap/Somnus might be the team then let's go. I really don't like Somnus' "I want out of this game anyway" after his gambit -- that reads exactly like a player who's fed up with playing scum and genuinely wants out.

VOTE: Somnus
Putting my money where my mouth is, I suppose.

Feels bad, man.

Why can't Somnus be Town and be fed up with this game?

[Rad]

UNVOTE:

Yup. Let me think about this more. Since posting my Somnus/BBT case I've been looking harder at the potential of a scum!Cheap.

I still have a scum read on Somnus regardless. But let me think this through.

[Cheapside]

Don't really know what to say to the stuff about Rad. Yeah, I could randomly try to generate pressure on the person that hasn't come under scrutiny today by hunting for and picking out small points and pushing them hard on it. Is that going to actually put them under pressure? Doubtful, unless I saw something that very strongly indicated they were mafia, in which case I'd just try to elim them on it. I wasn't saying I particularly need to see them under pressure anyway, I saw that yesterday.

Yet another wagon U-turn incoming? I imagine Bella and BBT will be very happy to elim in me/Corwin.

Learning that an SE only needs three games... interesting. All our SEs here have substantially more than that, as well as the wisdom that comes with age and years of play though, so doesn't really change my thinking.

-----------------------

Anyway, I don't consider hypocrisy a particular scumtell, but I did wonder about this:

Wait, shit. Is it just Somnus/Corwin?

That whole thing from Somnus came after Corwin starting coming under some serious pressure. It's a bold attempt at a complete flip on the game state.

You flip one of me or Bella and I believe that takes you to ELo for D3, which is obviously not good.

Wow. It's just Somnus/Corwin.

Effort =/= town

Why is it high risk? Somnus has literally tried to derail a Corwin wagon by shifting attention onto me.

Why is it legit town frustration and not legit scum frustration?

Pedit - Can we stop pushing pre flip associations, I fucking hate Newbie games.

(Also 953, 1049, etc)

Can you explain to me what a pre-flip associative tell is?

And then, I guess, either why none of what you've written above counts as using associative tells, or why in your case it's good play?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

@whiskey - that looks good... But where is your vote?

@Cheap - you're right, hypocrisy isn't a scum tell. Moving on.

Also, I'd be absolutely ecstatic to elim between you and Corwin.

[Rad]

Pick one bbt. You're still on somnus, yeah?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

The second someone I want to elim gets to L-1, you better believe I'll be slamming the hammer down.

[Rad]

Lol fair, I believe it