Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Aristeia]

VOTE: hem

this is where she starts burying hem

before this he was at 3

post titus he gets to 6 and gives up on the game

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: Why I am convinced the answer is HEM, Math, Ari... but we save Ari until the end in case I'm wrong

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Remember this. We'll be coming back to it.


HEM is a pretty confident universal scumread for everyone. So I'm not going to waste my time there.
Then, we get to Math. His meta is unquestionably strange and hard to put the finger on. I was dealing with the fact Math wasn't pushing theories at all, but he didn't seem to have an agenda. Roden acknowledged this too. Harley Quinn thought it made Math scum, but I wanted to sort out the lack of an agenda.

We're at 1929, I began to get suspicious that Ari was defending a scum!Blade here. Why would Math be suddenly able to play the game after voting out his townread and in an environment where he feels like he cannot give townblocks?

I sat on this for a bit (not long LOL) and discussed HEM + Math together with Roden for a moment. We both observed the same behavior from Math, so that likely meant it was significant and worth exploring. If I could get Ari alone, I could get Ari to articulate a reason to townread Math beyond he'll be useful after HEM flips or he'll give a scumread. I wanted to corner Ari to see if she was actually townreading Math. I didn't predict it to be as illuminating as it was.

In 1945, I start to put feelers out on if Ari is ever willing to vote Math because it does no good to catch Math if the people who have the stomach/fortitude to flip Math are all dead. That's most likely me and HQ. Ari said that she persuaded Math of something which is a rare feat. So Ari would be in that class. So it was worth a line.

In 1952, I claim that scum are going to argue that Math is town because they're a counter to HEM.
Ari immediately does that in the next post.

Ari then starts going back to my old Implo/HEM theory.
I didn't even bother reading the rest of the post for detail once I saw Ari claiming Math's flip spewed him town. I was like nuuhuh biatch.

Ari's post sets out two premises
1) HEM is anti-spew (not 100% sure I agree but I see it and I scumread HEM so ok)
and
2) Math hasn't anti-spew because his flip clears so many.

So that makes me think, was the odd behavior from Math anti-spew?

In 1967, Ari says that when Math sees he's going down that he goes straight into anti-spew and gives a link.

In order to check my theory, I go to the game. I find out who Math is (he's under an alt). I then go to the back of his ISO because that's the most relevant part, establishing how Math sounds when he's anti-spewing. Math's refusal to form a townblock or a cohesive readslist sounds like anti-spew to me.

So I test this theory through a series of questions that I can use no matter the answer. The idea is to get Ari to compare an "unknown" speaker to scum and then compare it to Math's game to see if I can get Ari to defend Math's actual play here or whether Ari would think Math is scummy in a vacuum.

This lets me read Ari to see if Ari is genuinely believing her Math defense and if she is to give her an opportunity to defend the root of the issue, Math's "odd for him" play.

When I posted 1975 asking if the speaker was town or scum, that wasn't the point. No matter what answer Ari gave, I would have told her it was scum that posted. It was a softball designed to have a casual conversation and not inform her that I was actually hunting any particular read in particular since I go off on tangents all the time. That "no tangents" thing might have been ruined but non essential.

Twenty minutes later, Ari says the post is "scum anti-spew". Ari and I both know that Ari has to say it's scum anti-spew. Otherwise, her linking the very game the post comes from is pointless.

Now, unpredicatably, Math comes in and claims ownership of the post in 1994. Now, if I was Ari and a player claimed a known scum post as their own, I'd at least be a little concerned. Instead, Ari is replying to a post from earlier stating she'd be "confused" if Math was scum.

Ari then states that Math stops posting when faced with going down and that's how he "anti-spews". Now, how many of you think that Math can actually stop posting when he gets on a roll? He literally cannot. His anti-spew matches more the text of the post from his micro game that putting in effort isn't worthwhile.

you are talking about one post...

i am talking about the entire iso

math when hes antispewing just shuts up and stops posting

That made me think to compare Math's ISO. Math's tonal irregularities match the last post of that microgame. His ISO is full of it and excuses about why he's not the regular math with theories. No one would listen etc. This isn't a micro game where Math can prod dodge and if he did that would be a scumclaim.

So he just picks fights and never solves.

In 2008, Math says he vibes with himself...when he's scum. Like Math could not be waiving a bigger red flag. He then says if it's not this game it's not relevant which is LOL but adorbs.

In 2011, Ari says that she reads Math by volume and

intention

but how can she be reading Math's posts for intention when she "stopped reading" his posts "awhile ago" according to 1998?

After a bit, Math realizes that he should probably 180 on me. He tries to claim my reaching out to him was scummy in 2020 in an abrupt about face. The rationale is laughable.

Ari's response to this conflicting information and sibling fight is to turn back to the implosion read. 2022
Math just tries to copy this theory by adding me with HEM and Implo.

Now remember that question from before...

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Wallflower's wrong post in 2064 is more consistent with what I expect town to do. Wallflower's wrong, but she's defending the read with substance and not deflecting like the repeated attempts to turn to HEM without saying how Math is town. Wallflower says how Math is town. (No Town!Math never does a full reset here, but it's important that Wallflower defended the position and not the accuracy.) Wallflower still has a chance to be scum if I'm wrong about Ari but I fully expect not to be.

also there is like 0% chance scum titus posted this

[Aristeia]

like saying me/hem is s/s after the fight we had d1 is just too moonlogik for me to believe scum!her came up with that

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Why I am convinced the answer is HEM, Math, Ari... but we save Ari until the end in case I'm wrong

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Remember this. We'll be coming back to it.


HEM is a pretty confident universal scumread for everyone. So I'm not going to waste my time there.
Then, we get to Math. His meta is unquestionably strange and hard to put the finger on. I was dealing with the fact Math wasn't pushing theories at all, but he didn't seem to have an agenda. Roden acknowledged this too. Harley Quinn thought it made Math scum, but I wanted to sort out the lack of an agenda.

We're at 1929, I began to get suspicious that Ari was defending a scum!Blade here. Why would Math be suddenly able to play the game after voting out his townread and in an environment where he feels like he cannot give townblocks?

I sat on this for a bit (not long LOL) and discussed HEM + Math together with Roden for a moment. We both observed the same behavior from Math, so that likely meant it was significant and worth exploring. If I could get Ari alone, I could get Ari to articulate a reason to townread Math beyond he'll be useful after HEM flips or he'll give a scumread. I wanted to corner Ari to see if she was actually townreading Math. I didn't predict it to be as illuminating as it was.

In 1945, I start to put feelers out on if Ari is ever willing to vote Math because it does no good to catch Math if the people who have the stomach/fortitude to flip Math are all dead. That's most likely me and HQ. Ari said that she persuaded Math of something which is a rare feat. So Ari would be in that class. So it was worth a line.

In 1952, I claim that scum are going to argue that Math is town because they're a counter to HEM.
Ari immediately does that in the next post.

Ari then starts going back to my old Implo/HEM theory.
I didn't even bother reading the rest of the post for detail once I saw Ari claiming Math's flip spewed him town. I was like nuuhuh biatch.

Ari's post sets out two premises
1) HEM is anti-spew (not 100% sure I agree but I see it and I scumread HEM so ok)
and
2) Math hasn't anti-spew because his flip clears so many.

So that makes me think, was the odd behavior from Math anti-spew?

In 1967, Ari says that when Math sees he's going down that he goes straight into anti-spew and gives a link.

In order to check my theory, I go to the game. I find out who Math is (he's under an alt). I then go to the back of his ISO because that's the most relevant part, establishing how Math sounds when he's anti-spewing. Math's refusal to form a townblock or a cohesive readslist sounds like anti-spew to me.

So I test this theory through a series of questions that I can use no matter the answer. The idea is to get Ari to compare an "unknown" speaker to scum and then compare it to Math's game to see if I can get Ari to defend Math's actual play here or whether Ari would think Math is scummy in a vacuum.

This lets me read Ari to see if Ari is genuinely believing her Math defense and if she is to give her an opportunity to defend the root of the issue, Math's "odd for him" play.

When I posted 1975 asking if the speaker was town or scum, that wasn't the point. No matter what answer Ari gave, I would have told her it was scum that posted. It was a softball designed to have a casual conversation and not inform her that I was actually hunting any particular read in particular since I go off on tangents all the time. That "no tangents" thing might have been ruined but non essential.

Twenty minutes later, Ari says the post is "scum anti-spew". Ari and I both know that Ari has to say it's scum anti-spew. Otherwise, her linking the very game the post comes from is pointless.

Now, unpredicatably, Math comes in and claims ownership of the post in 1994. Now, if I was Ari and a player claimed a known scum post as their own, I'd at least be a little concerned. Instead, Ari is replying to a post from earlier stating she'd be "confused" if Math was scum.

Ari then states that Math stops posting when faced with going down and that's how he "anti-spews". Now, how many of you think that Math can actually stop posting when he gets on a roll? He literally cannot. His anti-spew matches more the text of the post from his micro game that putting in effort isn't worthwhile.

you are talking about one post...

i am talking about the entire iso

math when hes antispewing just shuts up and stops posting

That made me think to compare Math's ISO. Math's tonal irregularities match the last post of that microgame. His ISO is full of it and excuses about why he's not the regular math with theories. No one would listen etc. This isn't a micro game where Math can prod dodge and if he did that would be a scumclaim.

So he just picks fights and never solves.

In 2008, Math says he vibes with himself...when he's scum. Like Math could not be waiving a bigger red flag. He then says if it's not this game it's not relevant which is LOL but adorbs.

In 2011, Ari says that she reads Math by volume and

intention

but how can she be reading Math's posts for intention when she "stopped reading" his posts "awhile ago" according to 1998?

After a bit, Math realizes that he should probably 180 on me. He tries to claim my reaching out to him was scummy in 2020 in an abrupt about face. The rationale is laughable.

Ari's response to this conflicting information and sibling fight is to turn back to the implosion read. 2022
Math just tries to copy this theory by adding me with HEM and Implo.

Now remember that question from before...

Question: What options are available for someone who genuinely holds a belief and they are presented with conflicting information?

Answer: They double down on their opinion, they change their mind, or they acknowledge the cognitive dissonance.

Wallflower's wrong post in 2064 is more consistent with what I expect town to do. Wallflower's wrong, but she's defending the read with substance and not deflecting like the repeated attempts to turn to HEM without saying how Math is town. Wallflower says how Math is town. (No Town!Math never does a full reset here, but it's important that Wallflower defended the position and not the accuracy.) Wallflower still has a chance to be scum if I'm wrong about Ari but I fully expect not to be.

also there is like 0% chance scum titus posted this

I will reread that section after work.

And lol that’s a hallmark of scum Titus lmao

Look at gunsmith mini normal that just finished

She pushed Scorpious scum theory that was ridiculous.

And FYI I already said I don’t care how I sound

[Aristeia]

you r saying that aus/titus want you dead cuz they r scum

im saying it might just be cuz you sound like scum and they find u susp

[Aristeia]

gonna do a full breakdown of d1 tonight

pls no1 speed lim mathblade just cuz he is a huge hem fan <3 u

[Harley Quinn]

i am feel p sure math/titus is t/t

Why?

I feel Titus + Asuaka is likely S&S

They’re both using the same phrasings in their posts

thats not a reason to think they are ss

It is

Both of them had a planned narrative that I am scum
And won’t move off of me without some kind of confirmation

It reeks of scum plan

Occams razor says that this is unlikely.

[Harley Quinn]

like saying me/hem is s/s after the fight we had d1 is just too moonlogik for me to believe scum!her came up with that

Yeah, that theory’s absurd.

I’m convinced that there’s one scum on his wagon that he set up to look obvtown after he flipped. I have no idea whom yet but find it unlikely he didn’t tell at least one buddy to bus him once he knew he was going down.

[Dwlee99]

Scum don't need to parrot the same thinking if they have options, which an Ausuka Titus team do because bellaphant served up a list of people that they think could be scum

[Dwlee99]

Math initially thought I was scum because I sheeped Ari onto hem and now HEM flipped scum and math still thinks I'm scum

[Harley Quinn]

Math initially thought I was scum because I sheeped Ari onto hem and now HEM flipped scum and math still thinks I'm scum

Math is tunnelled. I just feel like Ausuka’s vote came out of the blue. Was she even sr Math yesterday?

[Titus]

Math initially thought I was scum because I sheeped Ari onto hem and now HEM flipped scum and math still thinks I'm scum

Math has setup spec, omgus, or sheep Ari. If he really thinks Implo scum, I fosed that early. Fake for him to have us both.

In the event Math is town, I go Implosion here.

[Harley Quinn]

Math initially thought I was scum because I sheeped Ari onto hem and now HEM flipped scum and math still thinks I'm scum

I don’t know why, I got town pings from your posting. I could be wrong on Implosion though but idk.

[Aristeia]

VOTE: implo

ill write up the case tonight

think this is our best shot at flipping another scum but not like hem level sure

[Harley Quinn]

vote count 1.18

with 14 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-06-14 01:30:00).

yeet

humaneatingmonkey [5]:

implosion, Roden, Aristeia, MathBlade, Bellaphant

MathBlade [4]:

Gamma Emerald, Save The Dragons, Titus, Dwlee99

Dwlee99 [2]:

Ausuka, humaneatingmonkey

Aristeia [1]:

Enchant

Not Voting [2]:

Wallflower, Harley Quinn

mod notes

~ humaneatingmonkey v/la wednesday to friday.
~ Gamma Emerald v/la for a week.
~ dual mod iso.
~ this is mod note.

flavour

vote count 1.19

with 14 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-06-14 01:30:00).

yeet

humaneatingmonkey [5]:

Roden, Aristeia, MathBlade, Bellaphant, Gamma Emerald

MathBlade [4]:

Save The Dragons, Titus, Dwlee99, Harley Quinn

Dwlee99 [2]:

Ausuka, humaneatingmonkey

Aristeia [1]:

Enchant

Not Voting [2]:

Wallflower, implosion

mod notes

~ humaneatingmonkey v/la wednesday to friday.
~ Gamma Emerald v/la for a week.
~ dual mod iso.
~ this is mod note.

flavour

[Harley Quinn]

Examples: His push on Dwlee has no substance behind it. He sr Gamma for “not having found town!him yet”, eventhough Gamma played identically in Koba’s mini normal where they were both town. He sr Ausuka for being “nice about maths” or something. When is being nice ever a valid scumtell and especially for Ausuka who - when is she not nice? His progression on STD went from STD lockscum to STD locktown in pretty much the blink of an eye. He posted that if ANY not ALL of Dwlee, Titus, Gamma flip scum, he would then put me or Implosive in hid PoE. However, I am now extremely confident all 3 are town.

And yes, his entire progression on HEM is not what I’ve experienced with town!Math ever. He initially called HEM his top townread but voted HEM under pressure from Aristelia. Town!Math would never allow his arm to be twisted like that to vote a genuine top tr like that. Town!Math is bullheaded and obstinate to a fault. He is also one of the most anti-survivalistic players as town and I don’t recall Math ever being willing to policy anyone. Sometimes town!Math actually gets it right like in Koba’s mini normal and other times very wrong as in White Flag but there is always substance to his reads no matter how outlandish it looks to others. ISO both games to contast them with this one. Town!Math overflows with conviction and is also consistent with his reads. Here, he seems to change his reads on a dime without rhyme or reason. Town!Math doesn’t change his reads easily and definitely never under pressure.

Also he switched his srs on both Ausuka and Ari when they either voted the way he wanted or tr him. He gave me shit for initially not voting but had no issue with bella not voting, eventhough I had the exact same reason for having not voted as she had.

He had STD and Roden as top trs but is now takinv that at least partially back with STD. He did something similar with Gamma. He referred to them both as T/T but now he’s suddenly scum because he couldn’t find town!him early enough.

There are just so many reasons why Math is scum here.

This post helped me see things a bit clearer and it makes me feel better about HQ, having never played with Mathblade before a lot of meta stuff went over my head so I appreciate this clears that up a little bit.

I do like some of the points here. Obviously there's the point about niceness which I already brought up - I don't think the line of questioning I had there is going to go anywhere so I'm left with my original feeling of 'it doesn't seem like a real thought.' it's fair to say people can often be aggro during games but I think being nice to someone who wished you good luck in your exam is fairly obviously NAI?

I will make a mental note to check Math's hem progression when I finish catching up, I feel like I've read both that it's a policy lynch of sorts and that he was pushed into it?

Pedit: Don't underestimate anime

Oh didn’t remember this, so her vote wasn’t out of the blue but I no longer agree with this.

[Harley Quinn]

I tend to agree with Titus that Math wagon was likely pure because HEM was resigned to his fate, in no way did scum try to save him.

So scum is either bussing HEM, off both HEM/Math wagons or both.

[Bellaphant]

like saying me/hem is s/s after the fight we had d1 is just too moonlogik for me to believe scum!her came up with that

Yeah, that theory’s absurd.

I’m convinced that there’s one scum on his wagon that he set up to look obvtown after he flipped. I have no idea whom yet but find it unlikely he didn’t tell at least one buddy to bus him once he knew he was going down.

In a perfect world, one on math, one on hem and one off

[implosion]

Are you at all familiar with HEM!scum because dude is a master manipulator and by the EoD1 and post flip, Math looked exactly like a HEM buddy due to the optics. That means he isn’t.

I really don't like this line of logic. It's exactly the line of logic that led Math to conclude that HEM was town yesterday - he's a master manipulator, so if he's being wagoned he must be town.

Everyone with comments like these and comments like "HEM was happy to go down so their buddies must have been in a good spot" are ignoring a very basic important point: HEM was in the hospital for half of yesterday, in particular, the half of yesterday where their wagon picked up steam. They probably had bigger concerns than playing their best scum game, and trying to make conclusive statements on the assumption that their play was good is... very silly.

That said: I still have mixed feelings on Math. I agree with Ari that Titus is simply not scum here (I also agree with whoever was complaining that she's sounding like MathBlade yesterday).

I look forward to being mad at ari (because there is literally no way i will not be).

[Gamma Emerald]

Can scum pick vigilante

Yes

[Gamma Emerald]

We likely get a scum from a jailkeeper/roleblock claim here
Because based on Enchant likely being a cop who checked me
Then roleblock/jailkeep is likely on scum here because it’s probable scum tried to shoot in enchant or Ari.

Enchant would be dead fypov.

Ari doesn't get shot with my post eod.

Figures that was your aim. Probably the only close-to-effective performance I’ve seen for that.

[implosion]

Rough feelings right now are something like this.

Ari, Titus, HQ: town who I don't really imagine ever re-evaluating on.

StD: town who I still feel good about calling town.

Gamma, Ausuka, Wallflower, Roden: town, but due for an audit.

Dwlee: leaning town, not confident.

Bellaphant: next step is to ISO her.

Math: idk.

Enchant: still casually scum.

[Gamma Emerald]

At some point there is deffo scum on the hem wagon, but in the later half I think.

Gamma Emerald, Save The Dragons, Harley Quinn, Titus, Dwlee99 - there's a scum in here, probably Titus/dweelee. I think hem was distancing from dweelee and just vote parked. Like, there's one slot in here I have above 'null'

Maximum EW

[implosion]

Eh there's a lot in the ISO on day one that I just don't have strong feelings on. I don't like her opening today though.

I don't think we should elim math at all

I think we need to go back and work out why it took 80+ pages to elim scum - that was our leading eagon for most of the day but blimey it took a fuck ton of work to get it there. Anyone trying to elim math today is just putting us back to yesterday and it just isn't good for town.

My scum pool has t changed massively.

The math wagon is clearly not pure. Why would you want to drag us back to yesterday? Please don't do this to the thread.

Why has your scum pool changed massively? You were on-wagon on a wagon that flipped scum. Isn't that like, the ultimate situation where you have no reason to change your reads overnight? Did you re-read the game, or did something else spur the massive shift?

Why are you against the thread being "dragged back to yesterday"? Yesterday was pretty great, it led to a scum elimination and had a ton of analyzable content. I think it's very silly to characterize it as "it took 80+ pages to elim scum" - there are lots of good and frankly pretty obvious reasons why the day was so long, among them competing wagons that generated lots of info, some people (like HQ) not being ready for the day to immediately end, and well, above all, the main wagon being in the hospital for like 4 days. I don't see why Bella is casting yesterday in a negative light.

[Bellaphant]

Hey, sorry, that's 'hasnt' - see the rogue t? Yes, we had some good content but I was massively disheartened to see today start with another set of convos that looked like they could just lead to Titus/math blowing up the thread. I also can't believe I signed up for a game this large - I don't play larges because I can't cope with 80 pages: but, also, I feel like there was a lot of consensus that nothing good was coming from the hem slot very early on - we've even mentioned today that Titus buried hem on post 400 and something.