Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[bnuuy]

Do you want to experiment with me on Menalque Flavor?

Uhm…maybe.

This one is a bit scarier for me in the chance I’m wrong on the team, because Menalque is the one in the three I feel I would be wrong in at this point, even though it goes against my VCA.

My gut tells me Menalque is town, my brain says he’s a wolf, my heart says listen to my brain.

That means I’m leaning him wolf, but some things he says, like the “sig this if we ever in a game” line give me pause.

However, him specifically pushing me saying that line is off considering if he thinks I’m scum, it wouldn’t matter for him to sig, which could be TMI him knowing I’m town?

if he knew you were town wouldn't he be mafia?

[bnuuy]

I even had Bnuuy on some of my Day 1 solves.

this is bunk, your sole "push" on me d1 was to dismantle the wagon on me to let catboi go through

I never said I pushed you— I said you were in some of my solves.

solves mean jack all if you don't do anything with them

[Klick]

let's say night 7 starts 3-2-1
the only good outcome is both scum crosskilling
wolves hitting mafia or town and mafia misfiring results in 2-1-1 wolf majority, with the only possible outcomes atp being wolf win or draw
wolves hitting town and mafia hitting a wolf results in 4p kingmaker (which might be more prisoner's dilemma than kingmaker but it's still bad)
even both teams shooting you is not great because atp it's a situation of the mafia needing to townside or the wolves win, and I feel like it's pretty likely someone just gets it wrong and wolves just end the day there, at which point they're all but guaranteed to win

All of this gives us much better odds than winning 4-3 ELo though.

Mafia is much less likely to miss a Wolf in 3-2-1 than the Town is in ELo.

[Menalque]

Let's talk a bit more about 4-3 vs 4-2-1. I think the latter is faaaar better a position for town.

ESPECIALLY if FL actually is mafia. He'll just die to wolves.

SUPER ESPECIALLY because neither of us trusts this town to coordinate.

Like you want this town to enter 'have to agree all together on the scumteam' territory

When we could just rely on the scum doing this for us, when they've shown to be pretty damn good at hitting each other

Basically I'd like anyone who's town to have a really clear read of this and realise that we're probably not winning 4-3, while we very well could win 4-2-1.

Klick, just tell me who to vote bro, whatever

I think you’re conftown right, I’m assuming someone will tell me if I’m wrong about that

[Klick]

I haven't decided yet Menalque. Watch my vote if you want.

(Yes I'm conftiwn)

[bnuuy]

let's say night 7 starts 3-2-1
the only good outcome is both scum crosskilling
wolves hitting mafia or town and mafia misfiring results in 2-1-1 wolf majority, with the only possible outcomes atp being wolf win or draw
wolves hitting town and mafia hitting a wolf results in 4p kingmaker (which might be more prisoner's dilemma than kingmaker but it's still bad)
even both teams shooting you is not great because atp it's a situation of the mafia needing to townside or the wolves win, and I feel like it's pretty likely someone just gets it wrong and wolves just end the day there, at which point they're all but guaranteed to win

All of this gives us much better odds than winning 4-3 ELo though.

Mafia is much less likely to miss a Wolf in 3-2-1 than the Town is in ELo.

I think once one wolf falls the rest come in order
so town only has a 3/7 guess (3/6 for any individual player)
with you around as well, it becomes 3/5 in essence
the odds of a crosskill are 2/5*1/4=1/10
so imo there's 6x better odds to win if we hit mafia today than if we hit wolf+town the next 2 days

[bnuuy]

eh hm
who would you eliminate today + tomorrow if you had your way, klick?

[Flavor Leaf]

Do you want to experiment with me on Menalque Flavor?

Uhm…maybe.

This one is a bit scarier for me in the chance I’m wrong on the team, because Menalque is the one in the three I feel I would be wrong in at this point, even though it goes against my VCA.

My gut tells me Menalque is town, my brain says he’s a wolf, my heart says listen to my brain.

That means I’m leaning him wolf, but some things he says, like the “sig this if we ever in a game” line give me pause.

However, him specifically pushing me saying that line is off considering if he thinks I’m scum, it wouldn’t matter for him to sig, which could be TMI him knowing I’m town?

if he knew you were town wouldn't he be mafia?

why cant wolves know I am town? But this helps me not think that's the case, though.

I was under the impression that it was possible wolves werent entirely sure if I were town or Mafia, while leaning they were leaning towards me being Mafia, but I also think I am a threat to wolves based on my solving, and probably some leftover resent/vengeance getting for Catboi.


Like with you and TicTac, it reeks of Catboi Vengeance.

Menalque must have showered, and put on some cologne, because I can't tell, and there might be a little in there, but they have been on some wagons with you two, so i could see it transferring over.

[Flavor Leaf]

let's say night 7 starts 3-2-1
the only good outcome is both scum crosskilling
wolves hitting mafia or town and mafia misfiring results in 2-1-1 wolf majority, with the only possible outcomes atp being wolf win or draw
wolves hitting town and mafia hitting a wolf results in 4p kingmaker (which might be more prisoner's dilemma than kingmaker but it's still bad)
even both teams shooting you is not great because atp it's a situation of the mafia needing to townside or the wolves win, and I feel like it's pretty likely someone just gets it wrong and wolves just end the day there, at which point they're all but guaranteed to win

All of this gives us much better odds than winning 4-3 ELo though.

Mafia is much less likely to miss a Wolf in 3-2-1 than the Town is in ELo.

I think once one wolf falls the rest come in order
so town only has a 3/7 guess (3/6 for any individual player)
with you around as well, it becomes 3/5 in essence
the odds of a crosskill are 2/5*1/4=1/10
so imo there's 6x better odds to win if we hit mafia today than if we hit wolf+town the next 2 days

these odds are looking at it from a technical perspective, without looking at the fact that certain slots are less likely to be killed than others.

[Klick]

I think once one wolf falls the rest come in order
so town only has a 3/7 guess (3/6 for any individual player)
with you around as well, it becomes 3/5 in essence

This doesn't happen though, we have different players with different opinions making different choices

Making one correct decision in 7p ELo is not a win, even 3p ELo is very low odds for town and the odds only get worse with more chances to miss

Why does everything go town's way in your calculations for voting Mafia, but everything goes rather scum-sided in your calculations for voting a Wolf?

[Nashville Dreams]

I'll be limited access tmo but may check from time to time.

Klick put me where you need me.

~Titus

[Sword of Ducks]

I'll be limited access tmo but may check from time to time.

Klick put me where you need me.

~Titus

Same here, I won't be here until nightfall in my area. Damn, without MathBlade's thread bloat the whole game can actually have a discussion without it getting heavily interrupted.

[bnuuy]

I think once one wolf falls the rest come in order
so town only has a 3/7 guess (3/6 for any individual player)
with you around as well, it becomes 3/5 in essence

This doesn't happen though, we have different players with different opinions making different choices

Making one correct decision in 7p ELo is not a win, even 3p ELo is very low odds for town and the odds only get worse with more chances to miss

Why does everything go town's way in your calculations for voting Mafia, but everything goes rather scum-sided in your calculations for voting a Wolf?

one correct decision in ELo probably reveals the entire scumteam imo

btw pls answer my earlier question towards you

[Klick]

eh hm
who would you eliminate today + tomorrow if you had your way, klick?

I've already said I'm not sure yet. I'm still thinking

[Flavor Leaf]

I would like everyone to state their 2 biggest wolf reads.

[Flavor Leaf]

I would like everyone to state their 2 biggest wolf reads.

Mine are Bnuuy-TicTac.

[bnuuy]

I would like everyone to state their 2 biggest wolf reads.

Mine are Bnuuy-TicTac.

This is probably one of the worst possible takes you could have listed
I skimmed catboi’s ISO a bit and it felt kinda like he was leaving us open to miselim

[bnuuy]

Mena and Ducks are my 2 strongest wolf reads btw

[Freedom]

I would like everyone to state their 2 biggest wolf reads.

Same as you, TBH.
While I think that tictac's ISO is adequate, I think that tictac feels more quiet than expected.
(Though I'm basing my knowledge of town!tictac on CONTROL, where they seemed quite proactive and involved.)
As for bnuuy, I think that Klick's response to them in 11359 sums up my concerns.

[Menalque]

I'll be limited access tmo but may check from time to time.

Klick put me where you need me.

~Titus

Same here, I won't be here until nightfall in my area. Damn, without MathBlade's thread bloat the whole game can actually have a discussion without it getting heavily interrupted.

You’re somehow still complaining about math, who is dead, when FL has over 1800 posts

[tictac]

votecount 5.F

MathBlade

(6) |

Sword of Ducks

,

Flavor Leaf,

Nashville Dreams

,

Save The Dragons

,

Nero Cain

,

The Keeper

Flavor Leaf

(4) |

MathBlade, tictac, Menalque, bnuuy

bnuuy (1) | Klick

Not Voting |

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to politely ask someone to leave.

Deadline: (expired on 2022-06-20 21:29:00).

wolf reads!
less confident than the maf read tho

[Menalque]

I haven't decided yet Menalque. Watch my vote if you want.

(Yes I'm conftiwn)

Okay just lmk when

I would like everyone to state their 2 biggest wolf reads.

Don’t really have wolf reads

Klick town, i town, Klick thinks ducks town for some reason so sure, you’re maf, I still think wallflower was town from D1 and that Nero was town, therefore wolves are (bnuuy, tictac, ND) by PoE but I don’t really wolfread any of them on play

[tictac]

CONTROL

r u an alt of someone from that game?

[Menalque]

If tictac/bnuuy are wolves tho then I was surprisingly accurate on D1

[Sword of Ducks]

Mena and Ducks are my 2 strongest wolf reads btw

I can see Mena but why me?