Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Then again, when someone literally parks a vote on you then there is always a chance you're going to be wagoned.

It seems like I have been wagoned the entire game though and I don't really know what to make of it. Hopefully VCA helps

[Bellaphant]

That is the flip side - you are town And at least scum is basically perma voting you. It's not like any of the wagons were 'pure'

[Somnus]

Hey somnus, let me know when you're around. I got a quick fire question for you if you would humor me.

I’m on now and will be for a little bit. Otherwise, I’ll check in periodically over the next couple hours. I’m not going to be up very late tonight. I’ve got another gaming event I’m leading tomorrow that starts pretty early.

[Rad]

Still on somnus?

[Somnus]

Yes

[Rad]

Thanks somnus. I'm working through a read on you. I don't want to give scum!Somnus a bunch of time to think about why I'm asking these specific questions, and I think town!Somnus can answer them easily. It could lead to nothing but it could also help me in my read. Let me know when you're ready and I'll fire out 3 questions, 1 at a time.

[Somnus]

Go for it

[Rad]

what time did you wake up today?

[Somnus]

Lol. Ok. I operate and sleep at weird hours most days. Days like tomorrow when I have an event going on are different. Got up a little before noon.

[Rad]

what time did you wake up yesterday?

[Somnus]

I don't know?

[Rad]

You can't remember yesterday?

[Somnus]

Around the same time? Like...I can barely remember what I ate for breakfast yesterday.

[Somnus]

If the 3rd question is when I took my last bowel movement, I could go into explicit detail, but I'll spare the thread a response.

[Rad]

Ok thanks. Good enough. You already answered my third question (what time do you usually wake up?). Thanks for playing along I appreciate it. I know they seem like silly questions, but they had to do with when I placed my vote on BBT + your claims about the alerts when you're scum. If you were sleeping when I placed my vote at 8:28 am, it seems reasonable you could have slept through an alert. So this didn't actually help my read on that at all. No biggy, comes out a wash, but I appreciate your time.

[Rad]

I mean, I guess if you wake up at noon, you still have 45min to get a hammer vote in in a somnus/corwin scum team scenario. I dunno. Something I'm thinking about right now. I want to cross that team off my list because once I do it guarantees BBT scum for me.

[Somnus]

I mean, I kinda figured by the 2nd question that that's where you were going with it. I'm not going to ask you and Corwin to risk the game by putting your votes on him just so I can say, "See? I'm not paired with either of you", but no, I've never missed an opportunity to quick-hammer as mafia, and if I continue playing the game of mafia, I probably never will.

[Rad]

Ok I'll be out for a bit. Watching end of peaky blinders with my wife Will be back on later and I'll probably post some stuff I've come up with about somnus.

[Somnus]

Sounds good. I may or may not still be up, depending on what time. Early night for me tonight.

[Rad]

Ok, did some reading last night. Mainly somnus stuff.

I confirmed that somnus did in fact wait like 7 days in 3p elo to hammer vote within 4 minutes. That, for me, confirms his statement about using the alerts in the past as scum. I mean, maybe that was coincidental, but I'll Occam's razor it as proof.

The game he's referring to starts day 4 here (Apr 11): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13328442
and his hammer is here (Apr 18): https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13336932

Somnus is also completely burned out from playing scum. Maybe that causes him, as scum, to pull back and play way differently in order to be able to sustain yet another mafia role pull. If I was scum in his position, maybe I pull back a ton, but do I drop the endgame play? Probably not. I mean, why drop it? He's still in the game so he wants to win. Does scum!somnus stop caring at all when he's in the position to win another scum game based on a quick hammer? The hard part is getting to that point as scum. The easy part is kicking back and waiting for the right time to hammer in a town!BBT game where just about everyone's considering him scum.

In our hammer setup, as a scum team of somnus/corwin, somnus has 4.25 hours to pay attention. I dropped my vote at 8:28am EST and corwin's was on by 12:02pm EST. He had 45 minutes from that point to hammer, and the 3+ hours before that to discuss with corwin a potential hammer. What are the chances scum!somnus just totally botches this opportunity to end the misery of another scum game when all he has to do here is pay attention to a potential hammer?

Now, this certainly doesn't remove a potential BBT/somnus team. In that scenario, he has no reason to interact at all with this wagon. If he pops in there, he actually removes an additional possibility of somnus/corwin and somnus/rad and gives town!Rad and town!Corwin full knowledge that BBT is scum (could still be rad/corwin to town!bella). Not at all saying this makes somnus scum, but scum!BBT teammate scum!somnus probably shouldn't pop into the thread even if he's got alerts set and catches them in time.

On a more pro-town!somnus note, I feel like his play is different here than that game I referenced. He proved he can try-hard-scum in that game, but his try hard there reads very different than his try hard posts here, to me at least.

Somnus's tone has also completely changed here in d3 and that could be a few things, but I have no theories that convince me enough to share them.

While we're at it, let's also note this. Somnus reads from the dead:

Vasex - town
Spartan - town
Cheap - town
Whiskey - town

Bella, what do you think about the possibility of a somnus/corwin team? Does any of this convince you that it's not likely?

[Rad]

Follow up for Bella. If you're now convinced that a somnus/corwin team isn't likely, are you reading me town? If so, the scum team list town!Bella would be looking at points to BBT as scum.

Wanna vote him with me?

[Bellaphant]

I think i want corwin first? Somnus day three, as I said, just looks town. Corwind's questions to me continue to look disinterested in actually solving - especially the 'why are you alive: question.

[Bellaphant]

Bella - Somnus no
Bella - Rad no
Bella - Corwin no
Bella - BlueBlood
Somnus - Rad no
Somnus - Corwin no
Somnus - BlueBlood
Rad - Corwin
Rad - BlueBlood
Corwin - BlueBlood

If we believe somnus about the hammer (I do whether he's town or scum), then our viable teams are -
Bella/bbt
Somnus bbt
Rad corin
Rad bbt
Corwin bbt

Huh. That's a lot of bbt. If in right (I could have gone wrong) then bbt is just 80% likely to flip scum? Even if we take out me/bbt, it's still 75%.

[Corwinoid]

Somnus - Rad no
Somnus - Corwin no

How do you get these? I've got you scrubbed on everyone except BBT, but Somnus could be paired with anyone else still, no?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Will get to the VCA today.

If Rad/Somnus is scum/scum that's some of the weirdest shit I've ever seen. Like, I knew exactly what Rad was doing as soon as he asked the first question. I'm sure Somnus did, too...