Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[Rad]

I'm not voting corwin over bbt. You can try to get somnus to play along. I think bbt Bella is totally a realistic threat here. I also personally know that somnus corwin is the only potential non-bbt team, and have already concluded that that pairing would have to have failed a win move over and over.

[Rad]

Hey bbt Bella. If you wanna vote corwin, go ahead and put your vote on him so I can clear rad bbt and rad somnus teams. Bella can risk that it's not bbt somnus, which is what she's suggesting anyway. Ty <3

[Corwinoid]

I think that's a bad idea. BBT's been hard bussing Somnus all game. It's the only slot he hasn't switched between buddying/town reading/scum reading back and forth. He's just been hard pushing scum Somnus all game long. Your entire read against me is basically that I'm new player so I'm shit, and making bad mistakes, not that oh I'm new player that's

never been scum

including this game, so I wouldn't even be looking at them as mistakes. For some reason Bella thinks I'm not trying to solve, but I still don't understand 1240... maybe I'm just having and idiot moment and not getting it. I also don't understand why she'd push clears that aren't actual clears and then not explain where she got them from.

[Rad]

Your entire read against me is basically that I'm new player so I'm shit

Just to clarify Corwin, am I the "your" in this? If so, I don't mean to say you're a bad player at all. I'm saying that a Corwin/Somnus team has royally fucked up winning moves multiple times, so I consider you two an unlikely scum team. Yeah you'd be a new scum here, but Somnus isn't, and I doubt you came in without any sort of Somnus driven plan.

There's no reason BBT and Bella shouldn't park their vote on you here so I can clear my name a bit more. If town!BBT and town!Bella want to vote for Corwin, they should. I won't vote for Corwin here, and if town!Somnus pops in to say hi, we'd have all sorts of new good info. A Rad/Somnus team or Rad/BBT team has already fooled town!Bella into pushing for a Corwin vote so the suggestion in Bella's 1348 is doomed in either of those scenarios.

[Rad]

My lowest BBT scum pairing right now is BBT/Somnus. BBT/Corwin and BBT/Bella teams voting Corwin here doesn't matter and just helps town!Rad and maybe town!Somnus if he shows up at the right time. BBT/Somnus fooled town!Bella into voting first for Corwin, so we lose, but I get to point to my big post about BBT/Somnus and feel better about everything

So let's do this Bella. Make your move on Corwin with BBT.

[Somnus]

Alright. I've had a long day, but I had a chance to go through the ISOs of Rad and Corwin to cover my bases. There wasn't really a magical "AHA!" moment that popped up.

The only teams that are full 100% clear are:

Bella-Somnus
Bella-Rad
Bella-Corwin

I know that I'm town, and wouldn't vote for myself anyway, so from my POV, the following teams are also clear:

Somnus-BlueBlood
Somnus-Rad
Somnus-Corwin

So from my POV these last 2 and a half days, I know with 100% certainty that the team is one of the 4 following:

BlueBlood-Bella
BlueBlood-Rad
BlueBlood-Corwin
Rad-Corwin

Seems like I know what the obvious vote by me should be today, right? I'm trying to cover all my bases though.

[Corwinoid]

Rad, this is insane, there's no way this is a town play right? I didn't realize how big of a mistake my vote on BBT was, but I knew your first vote was risky. I was expecting Bella to hammer because everyone's reading BBT as scum, but that didn't happen. Now you're asking the one scum pairing she could possibly be in to put their votes on a third party so "I can clear my name," in the same breath you admit that would have fooled town!Bella into a misvote if I'm town. What in the actual hell are you doing right now?

I'm watching the hockey game, so this is only getting my attention during breaks, but this just seems crazy to me.

[Somnus]

I'm trying to maintain at least a shred of a sense of humor in what has been by far the most frustrating game of mafia I've played so far, so just a flashback to how different this game could have been right now. This is just for laughs and nothing more. Don't read into it.

To everyone else, flip one of me, BlueBlood, or Rad today. Obviously, my preference isn't myself, but it would at least break this game the fuck open and make the solve easier.

If any of the 4 of you still think I'm scum, that's fine.

You can even flip me today

. I offer this as someone who currently has zero votes on them. I don't mind. If we go with me today, once I flip green, flip BlueBlood and Bella back to back days. If I'm wrong, so be it. It's not a game of perfect information. And considering we lost the most OP town power role that exists in Newbie Games due to a quick-hammer on Day 1,

this is about as good of a chance of winning this game as you could ever dream of after that Day 1 debacle.

...

So again, to Corwin, Rad, Whiskey, and Cheap: Do we have a deal?

[Rad]

Rad, this is insane, there's no way this is a town play right? I didn't realize how big of a mistake my vote on BBT was, but I knew your first vote was risky. I was expecting Bella to hammer because everyone's reading BBT as scum, but that didn't happen. Now you're asking the one scum pairing she could possibly be in to put their votes on a third party so "I can clear my name," in the same breath you admit that would have fooled town!Bella into a misvote if I'm town. What in the actual hell are you doing right now?

I'm watching the hockey game, so this is only getting my attention during breaks, but this just seems crazy to me.

BBT Bella voting you is a BBT Bella idea. I disagreed with doing it from the start. Then I thought about it some more and realized how much that helps clear things up if they park their votes and let me and/or somnus say hello. We either gain potentially game winning info with that move, or Somnus/BBT is scum team and we lose (Obv I know Somnus/Rad and BBT/Rad aren't scum teams so I'm not worried about those). So don't pretend this is MY idea. I'm just happily pushing THEIR idea. If BBT Bella was sincere about wanting to vote you, they should do that.

Let's say they push corwin and both me and somnus say hello. Now we're looking at the following:

BBT / Rad - CLEAR
BBT / Somnus - CLEAR
Rad / Bella - CLEAR
Rad / Somnus - CLEAR
Somnus / Bella - CLEAR
Bella / Corwin - CLEAR
BBT / Bella
BBT / Corwin
Rad / Corwin
Somnus / Corwin

Following still?

It's now 3 potential corwin teams, 2 potential BBT teams, 1 Bella team, 1 Rad team, 1 Somnus team

Let's say town hits a scum today. Do you understand how powerful that could potentially be?

Say we flip red BBT in this scenario:

Both Rad and Somnus CANNOT be BBT team. One of us will be NK'd but the other will be confirmed TOWN.

Say we flip red Corwin in this scenario:

Bella gets NK'd because no possible Bella/Corwin team. That leaves me, BBT, and somnus. Let's fucking go.

Say we flip red Somnus:

Town wins.

Say we flip red Rad:

Town wins.

Say we flip red Bella:

Town wins.

Do you understand how powerful this info is? Scum should avoid it at all cost.

There are only 2 teams that make a Bella/BBT vote on Corwin right now a town loss.

Somnus/Rad
Somnus/BBT

Both Bella and myself read Somnus town right now.

Somnus/BBT fooled town, GG, it's just a game, well played. *clap*

Somnus/Rad plays d3 way different from the start, but hey, that's up for town to decide. It's still a risk in this move, and BBT Bella seem to have already thought that through when they said they wanted to vote for Corwin here.

Get it?

[Rad]

Slight correction: 3 teams that end in a town loss with a Bella/BBT vote on Corwin:

Somnus/Rad
Somnus/BBT
Rad/BBT

I would note that Bella is willing to vote with BBT here so she doesn't think Rad/BBT is likely.

If I look at this objectively, Rad/BBT should be pretty scary. But again, Bella's talking to BBT about a Corwin vote so it must not be that scary to her, even if only for her town read on BBT.

[Corwinoid]

YOU ARE STILL ASKING THE CLOSEST PERSON TO CONFIRMED SCUM IN THE GAME TO PUT THEIR VOTE ON SOMEONE AND HAVE EVERYONE JUST *TRUST* THAT YOU AREN'T THEIR PARTNER.

If you want your vote on me do it, but there's no way in hell this comes from town. I understand exactly how powerful the opportunity of having two votes on someone in this situation is.

The only way you could have known that BBT vote was safe is if one or both of you were scum

and

you knew that. I think you were thinking the same thing I was, that Bella would come in, make a mistake and hammer because BBT looks so thoroughly scummy at this point. Now that fell through and you're like "Oh, Corwin making mistakes is obviously because he's newb scum and I get to pretend I thought he was SE to reread that slot! Hey, just trust me guys, I'm town I'm town! Put a couple of votes on someone,

trust me

."

Opportunistic as fuck to push this while you're thinking Bella's willing to just blindly make that mistake.

[Rad]

Corwin you're only making mistakes if you're corwin/somnus team lol. You're playing pretty nicely as a BBT/corwin team IMO. If you're town, well, town is hard man. You should know that.

[Rad]

Also BBT isn't confirmed scum to anyone right now. There's still a potential corwin/somnus team from my perspective. I'm viewing BBT as confirmed scum though because the mistakes in corwin/somnus team are hilariously bad and I don't see somnus fucking up this bad with a 7 day 4 minute master class hammer. Somnus should be guiding you through these difficult times and your blunders suggests he's not, which suggests you're not a scum team. Stop being insulted, unless you're somnus/corwin scum team, then please continue being insulted because LOL.

[Rad]

Also... I'm not asking anyone to trust me. I'm presenting logic. I think town has to determine if I'm town on their own. I can't convince them of that. I don't think I did a great job in d1 or 2 but today, we have potential logic plays presented confidently by confirmed town reads, and I love it.

Let me ask you - who else is trying to solve this game as hard as I am? Is that townie? Is that scummy? Am I bullshitting everyone right now?

Is risk based on confirmed town reads townie? Is it scummy?

Is spotting a potentially strong likelihood where town gains important information townie? Is it scummy?

Town reads are hard.

[Rad]

I really don't want to argue with you here Corwin. I want town!Corwin to sit back and really consider what's going on.

I'm taking and pushing risks that lean heavily on confirmed town reads and logic. I don't have whiskey here to lean on. I admit my reads are weak and newbie. I assure you that my scum play is significantly different. In fact, I think I've fucked my scum play with this town game. My old games are on team liquid, same name.

Should you believe me? Not at face value, no. You should look into what I'm trying to accomplish with d3. What have my moves been? What risks have I taken? Why have I taken them? What information have we gained due to my moves?

Interestingly, you're not upset at all about Bella/BBT talking about flipping you. Why is that? If you're town, we lose. Why are you attacking ME here? Because MAYBE BBT/Rad or Somnus/Rad are scum? What about BBT/Bella pushing a corwin vote? Is that not scary? How dare they? Are you teamed with BBT so this potential bus is considered worth it? Do you see why that is a more important question than anything you've noted so far?

[Somnus]

Fair points, and as someone who hasn't gotten along with you very well this game, I do like your Day 3 here. Even if you're mafia, I like it.

Anyway, goal for tomorrow for me is going through BlueBlood/Corwin interactions.

[Rad]

Fair points, and as someone who hasn't gotten along with you very well this game, I do like your Day 3 here. Even if you're mafia, I like it.

Anyway, goal for tomorrow for me is going through BlueBlood/Corwin interactions.

Thanks. I think it's natural for town relationships to be a coin flip. Everyone is potentially lying to you and trying to manipulate you. Anything that rubs you the wrong way is scummy. I can't help but apologize after a scum game and I noticed you did that too in the scum game I read. High-five whatever your alignment cause this game is fun I know you don't seem to be enjoying it, which isn't AI IMO, but I think we've hit all the essential elements of a good mafia game.

Except vasex. Wtf vasex.

[Rad]

YOU ARE STILL ASKING THE CLOSEST PERSON TO CONFIRMED SCUM IN THE GAME TO PUT THEIR VOTE ON SOMEONE AND HAVE EVERYONE JUST *TRUST* THAT YOU AREN'T THEIR PARTNER.

If you want your vote on me do it, but there's no way in hell this comes from town. I understand exactly how powerful the opportunity of having two votes on someone in this situation is.

The only way you could have known that BBT vote was safe is if one or both of you were scum

and

you knew that. I think you were thinking the same thing I was, that Bella would come in, make a mistake and hammer because BBT looks so thoroughly scummy at this point. Now that fell through and you're like "Oh, Corwin making mistakes is obviously because he's newb scum and I get to pretend I thought he was SE to reread that slot! Hey, just trust me guys, I'm town I'm town! Put a couple of votes on someone,

trust me

."

Opportunistic as fuck to push this while you're thinking Bella's willing to just blindly make that mistake.

You know, I responded to this post, multiple times. But we should really note that it appears to ignore my fire 1358 post. Are you even following the logic here corwin? Do you DISAGREE with the logic? Are you just interested in deflecting from the logic?

Also, I don't think I pointed out that "If you want your vote on me do it" is WRONG. I already noted I don't want to put my vote on Corwin. How did you miss that? I want to put my vote on BBT. That's super clear here. BBT Bella vote on corwin is super useful, if town can get past the idea of a BBT/Rad or Rad/Somnus team. That's TOWN'S call. As town!Rad, I accept the risk of a BBT/Somnus play here that kills town.

[Rad]

Alright, going to sleep. I might respond to something new in the next 30-60 min, but after that zzzzz, if BBT and Bella decide to vote on corwin, please give me and somnus some time to respond. Ideally both me and somnus respond with a no vote which confirms some additional crucial information. I tend to wake up on and off between 7-9am EST lately. Somnus closer to 12pm EST.

This is Bella's play here. town!Bella should consider if she truly reads BBT as town, and if BBT town, is corwin most likely scum or other? If other, obviously you shouldn't do it. If most likely scum!corwin, let's do this.

BBT/Bella scum team will do what they feel is best here. Town (me, somnus, corwin, in this scenario) can judge it after the decision happens.

I think Bella's response here is as important as the actual vote/no-vote. Town Bella should just be honest, don't over-complicate it. Scum Bella will consult with BBT and I can't predict the result.

Here we go

[Corwinoid]

Good God, I'm on my phone right now, but your logic is completely broken if it hinges on people doing something completely not logic based, which is absolutely trusting that you're not duping everyone so you can hammer a slot.

Yeah, Bella, BBT, just set that aside and vote, k? This is entirely what 1358 depends on, and what youre asking them to ignore now, and it's either straight up dumb or scum play.

I hate doing stuff on my phone, ill go over the rest of this when I'm back at my house.

[Rad]

Don't trust me. Read my play. This game is probability based. Town wants to follow probability and Scum wants to manipulate it. Read your own probability here.

Don't trust me. Read me. Read BBT bella play. What is its goal. What is my goal for wanting to see their vote happen. If you're town, what is most dangerous to you? Why are the people doing a dangerous play doing it to you? Why do you think rad has power over the actions of the 2 people who want to vote you when they haven't shown any indication that they will follow Rad's suggestions in the entire game? Why are you, town!corwin so focused on rad when bbt Bella are your immediate town death concerns?

[Rad]

P1: yo p2 we should do this
P2: yeah ok sounds good
P3: yeah you two should do this so x y z
P4: wtf p3 no they shouldn't you must be scum

Literally what happened

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I think that's a bad idea. BBT's been hard bussing Somnus all game.

I genuinely laughed out loud at this. Imagine a world where BBT/Somnus are scum in this game. That's funny.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Rad positioning himself as the towniest of towns is worrying me.

Hey guys, go ahead and vote and I'll show you how town I am. Bella, I need your help. I'm struggling to work this out.

It seems crazy that one of Somnus/Corwin/Rad is town but it seems the most likely town is Somnus?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

But you didn't care about everyone else scum reading BBT as evidenced in your 1002 so that's really not a reason.

Again, you thought both were scum and had a perfectly viable wagon on one of your scum reads. Bella was highly unlikely to be elimmed at that point of the game.

I see no change in your Corwin read to justify getting off that wagon.

Rad, you haven't answered this.