Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[Rad]

The following are cleared for EVERYONE:

Bella / Rad - Cleared
Bella / Somnus - Cleared
Bella / BBT - Cleared
Bella / Corwin - Cleared
Somnus / Corwin - Cleared
Somnus / BBT - Cleared

So 5 teams fully cleared for everyone

town.Rad's unknown:

BBT / Corwin - last one, so CONFIRMED

town.Corwin's unknown:

Rad / Somnus
Rad / BBT

town.BBT's unknown:

Rad / Somnus
Rad / Corwin

town.Bella's unknown:

Rad / Somnus
Rad / BBT
Rad / Corwin
BBT / Corwin

town.Somnus's unknown:

Rad / BBT
Rad / Corwin
BBT / Corwin

I wrote the list out and thought about it for a couple hours. Tried to come up with some different plans. Came up with nothing. I have no magic path forward.

Obviously Bella's probably considering the fact that I'm in the most of her potential groupings. Somnus could come in and help clear out Rad/BBT and Rad/Corwin but it's whatever. That's putting a lot of trust in me and you may as well just make a vote to actually lim someone instead of jumping through those risky hoops. The main drawback I see now in my plan was that while it improved MY reads (I literally got the solve because of it), it didn't help town's reads all that much. So I traded obvtown points for a better read, putting me in the scum light for town to suicide on, and that was a mistake.

I guess I could go through BBT's and Corwin's ISOs and put together a reasonable case on each, considering I know they're scum so that shouldn't be all that difficult, but honestly I'm pretty fucking burned out at this point. Day 3 has been all consuming for me in terms of how much space it occupies in my brain all day every day. I was determined to make this logic play work, and it did (for me only), and now I'm seeing all that effort actually lead to a loss. That's just a bummer that it's my fault. AtE or whatever, just giving post game thoughts during the game.

[Somnus]

I’m about to go to bed, but I’ll say: I think as far as Day 3 goes at the very least, it would be a massive mistake for Bella to vote for you. That doesn’t automatically clear you for a potential Day 4. I get that. But I think your solve is probably correct, and a town!BlueBlood would objectively know by now that you’re mafia, and yet his vote isn’t there. I’m still going to have to 1 on 1 convo with Bella, but Bella, what we’re seeing here should be pinging some recent memories of syugar. I know the rest of you don’t know what that means, but she does.

[Rad]

Please consider:

Why is scum!Rad so interested in pushing clears? town!Rad thinks he's making the game solve more obvious without realizing it's making him more and more of a probability due to not clearing his pairings as easily. What's scum!Rad's actual goal here before he realizes he traded his obvtown points for nothing? Get more info for pretend town!Rad because...it looks townie I guess? So trade obvtown points for potential townie points is the scum!Rad goal of continuing this play throughout D3. Or is there a better explanation that makes sense to you?

[Rad]

Has BBT/Corwin been interested AT ALL in creating more clears? Are clears good or bad for town? Why are they completely uninterested in more clears at any point?

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, I've already identified bbt as Luke in terms of 'sharing my thinking'

[Bellaphant]

What do you want to talk to me about, somnus? Think I'm delaying the inevitable here.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Vote Count 3.05

Corwinoid (1):

Rad

Rad (1):

Corwinoid

Not Voting (3):

Somnus, Bellaphant, BlueBloodedToffee

With 5 alive, it's 3 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 3 is June 23, 20:10 GMT+8

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-06-23 20:10:00)

[Bellaphant]

Town bbt and town corwin should be shouting for rads death, right? Whereas I am still too cautious of rad and somnus has basically the same odds for everyone.


Why do you feel it's led to a loss, rad?

[Rad]

My play gained town winning knowledge for me but not you. That's a losing move that I didn't realize when I was making it. I was just seeing town clears happening which should be objectively good for town right? Well it cleared into a scenario where rad is the most unknown to 1 of the remaining towns and gives both scum a way to show why they believe in scum!rad. Bbt didn't capitalize on that so that should be a huge red flag but corwin did have a reply to somnus that suggested he realized it. Not sure if he realized before or after somnus question but it's easy for him to suggest he did. I think the play here even if you flip bbt red today is nk somnus and let corwin push you to lim me d4. I'll put together a corwin scum case if we reach that point but tell me now Bella, are you convinced in me scum over corwin or are you still on the fence? If convinced, ok no worries, I don't blame you, but please put us out of our misery after you and somnus have had a chance to talk.

[Rad]

The post I'm referring to is 1439

[Rad]

I'm not seeing anything prior to that post that suggests I'm confirmed scum to town!corwin. I'll take a look when I'm at my computer to see if I can figure out the exact moment I should be considered confirmed scum to him so we can analyze his thought process at that stage.

I know when I got the solve based on clears I was estatic and wanted to tell everyone.

[Rad]

1411 is me solving the game and 1416 is me spelling it out.

[Bellaphant]

That makes sense. You understand I feel a bit...rail roaded though? But railroading me is your winning move as town and scum.

I'm not even sure what somnus wants to talk about, so I'm waiting til our times align.

[Rad]

The only real "possible" teams remaining are my/bbt, rad/bbt, and me/rad. There are no more hammer tests, and no more safe vote testing. The path to victory is knowing bbt is the common denominator and just eliminating him tomorrow regardless of who he kills tonight.

Me/Somnus -> BBT
Me/Bella -> BBT
Bella/Somnus -> BBT.

Yes, you need to decide between me and Rad here. I'm asking you to seriously look at the player who's done a complete 180 from sheeping town and asking for guidance to driving a narrative, using false information, being misleading, and intentionally doing risky things that would either lose immediately or end in a low information day. Do take your time, look at the play today, look what's happened today -- I'm not the scummy one here.

Corwin. You're so convinced in rad bbt team that you're willing to vote with somnus in a 3p elo bbt corwin somnus.

Put your money where your mouth is and clear somnus rad with me right now. This info will be incredibly helpful to our confirmed town Bella and your proposed plan has you somnus and Bella supposedly guaranteed to win in a rad red flip.

VOTE: bbt

[Rad]

That makes sense. You understand I feel a bit...rail roaded though? But railroading me is your winning move as town and scum.

I'm not even sure what somnus wants to talk about, so I'm waiting til our times align.

Yeah, sorry about this Bella. You're the one who everyone has to convince right now regardless of alignment. All I can do here is try to find convincing evidence in the people I know are scum and present it to you. If corwin clears somnus/rad here, we have 2 confirmed town who get to figure this out, which is at least something

I'd suggest it's actually scummy that corwin didn't already suggest this somnus/rad clear move. town.corwin firmly believes in non-scum somnus, so much as to base his d3 AND d4 strategy on it, yet he claims that "There are no more hammer tests, and no more safe vote testing"

If I was town.corwin, I'd have noticed this move sooner and I'd have pushed for it to happen based on my belief that somnus isn't scum. In fact, I proved that I was willing to do that all of day 3 by gambling on bbt and then on corwin later when I decided somnus was not likely scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm curious why BBT isn't voting me right now even though I'm confirmed scum on town!BBT's list of unknown pairs:

Rad / Somnus
Rad / Corwin

Could it be that he hasn't even analyzed a town!BBT's list of unknowns? Gee, why wouldn't town!BBT be doing that?

This is funny. Here is me confirming Rad is scum...

Somnus/Corwin is clear already, no?

Or am I supposed to lay it out in a simple, easy to read sentence?

Maybe I should scream from the rooftops that you're scum because you're confirmed scum to me, and nobody else, but I should still scream it anyway just because... Right?

I am waiting for Bella to vote as she is effectively the game deciding vote for me. She is confirmed town to me, I need her to vote you to get to D4.

Simple as that really.

[Rad]

There's no guarantee on how someone will react to this knowledge regardless of alignment. But we do know that town!bbt places his vote on confirmed scum rad. There's absolutely no reason not to and bbt is not at all afraid to use his most powerful town tool except when there's a major risk. There's no risk here so scum!bbt scum slipped by not following what we know town!bbt should be doing. He's doubling down here still not voting me to attempt to justify his original lack of vote.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Why is it a risk for scum!BBT to vote?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Sorry, you're saying there is no risk to me voting.

[Rad]

Scum!bbt is probably stuck in the frame of mind that he shouldn't double up with corwin because he's scum team. His play here is to convince bella to vote rad and without that it doesn't even matter. Probably best to let bella solve the wrong solution without pressuring her. He didn't realize that he should place his vote on me if he's town with confirmed scum read. It's not that it's risky for scum!bbt, it's just a mistake.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Voting or not voting makes 0 difference, right?

[Rad]

If this convinces town that bbt is scum, it means that rad corwin and rad somnus should be off the table. It means that scum!rad scum!bbt looked specifically for scum tells in bbt's play and found a good one, and then this interaction has been scum theater while town!corwin just sat there and did no scum hunting at all on bbt. Part of that scum theater is announcing it's scum theater. If that sounds unlikely, it should clear rad bbt which leaves bbt corwin.

[Rad]

Voting or not voting makes 0 difference, right?

This is antithetical to town!bbt's thought process surrounding voting.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Again, D1/D2 is not comparable to ELo

[Rad]

Town!bbt votes confirmed scum rad. There is no risk. Stop trying to justify it.