Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

[SirCakez]

I townread worst, Ari, Meuh, Marci, skitter, GL
Scumread Gamma and Beat for sure, Titus is sliding in here and I had Isis as scum but I haven't hated her recent posts
Leaving me with the question marks of Pav, TUF

Cakez, when did your marci read change and what posts caused the change?

Like ages ago it was yesterday when she stopped doing things iirc

[SirCakez]

I guess I'm just confused why Meuh decides to unvote where she did because

(1) Pavo didn't do anything townie
(2) the people voting Pavo and joining her weren't being scumread by her?

it's such a weird hop off to me.

I really think its meuh, this just seems so scummy to me

Basically this + my PoE has led me to Marci + Meuh

[SirCakez]

Also I'm trying to figure out where scum were on the Beat wagon

[Meuh]

Spoiler:

Okay so I took a shower and thought about stuff

So Skitter’s play today feels terrible. But I feel like I haven’t properly taken the setup or what the mafia actually need to accomplish into account?
Like I’ve been practically thinking of this day just as “maf need to get a mislim and they win” and while I always knew that was inaccurate it’s not something I questioned extensively
So like, the mafia to both escape and it’s gg.
In this respect Skitter’s play isn’t really sustainable ig? Like it doesn’t help her long term even if she gets me mislimmed

Tbh I forgot about escaping as a mechanic when analyzing people’s play as of late
But like the scummiest mafia member can just… leave.
So now I feel as if there’s likely going to be 1 mafia assigned to 1 role, and one to the other. Both because of the escaping mechanic and the tougher limpool tomorrow (1/4 instead of 2/6), there’s likely gonna be a harsh push from one mafia to just get a townie straight out of here, then they just escape

and then the plan for day 2 is just for the second one to hide in a crowd of less ostentatious players and live?
But if that’s the angle the mafia are playing for I’m not really sure how to look at people’s play today
Like whatever the mafia’s trying to do with who they want to escape now or later it’s tough to actually consider fully

So my mind’s clearer on what scum are actually aiming for here and what to look for but also who the scum are is less clear ???
This gamestate just feels really tough to gauge who’s scum and who’s town in
So ig I should look more back on d1/d2 to parse scum?
Blegh

I'm not really following your train of thought here. If skitter is scum and you're town, then skitter can push for your elim and then escape. That accomplishes her goal and does help her long term. It does depend who her partner is if that would be the strategy they would likely go for, but I think it's possible.

It sounds here like you're saying her play looks surface level scummy to you, but based on setup considerations, it's not as likely to come from scum. I don't see what's bringing you to that conclusion, though.

Yeah. This is why I didn't unvote Skitter, should've explicitly said so at the end
Okay I think I didn't really make this clear but here's how I felt about Skitter's alignment as I thought about this all
At the start I scumread her -> realizing scum need 2 mislims, it feels less likely to play aggressively -> therefore Skitter!town seems likely -> remembering someone gets to escape -> scum will likely go with an aggressive and a passive player, to secure their wincon -> so, Skitter's play could fit within the ideals of the mafia
I'm still leaning scum on her at the moment, it's more my perspective on the way scum could and would play today that's changed.

[Meuh]

@Meuh what's your read on Marci rn?

She's like 62.4% scum
I do think that looking at associatives is more productive in sorting her than just trying to read her on vibes. and those associatives aren't great iirc?
I've flipped back and forth on her vibes a bunch this game and at this point it feels pointless

[The Ugly Fruit]

There's no immediate issue with me staying on Marci? riiiiight?

[marcistar]

I do think that looking at associatives is more productive in sorting her than just trying to read her on vibes. and those associatives aren't great iirc?

do u take issue with my posts

[skitter30]

I guess I'm just confused why Meuh decides to unvote where she did because

(1) Pavo didn't do anything townie
(2) the people voting Pavo and joining her weren't being scumread by her?

it's such a weird hop off to me.

I really think its meuh, this just seems so scummy to me

Basically this + my PoE has led me to Marci + Meuh

Any interest in joining me on meuh? I think the case on her is p compelling
(And i'm still a little uncertain abt marci)

[skitter30]

I thought about this all
At the start I scumread her -> realizing scum need 2 mislims, it feels less likely to play aggressively -> therefore Skitter!town seems likely -> remembering someone gets to escape -> scum will likely go with an aggressive and a passive player, to secure their wincon -> so, Skitter's play could fit within the ideals of the mafia

So you think i'm scum playing aggressively in order to escape tonight?

Ok ... who is my partner in this universe. I think its kinda unlikely i wouod play to escape if i wasnt confident that my partner would be able to endgame

[Meuh]

Spoiler:

Oh I was also thinking about meuh's post

Do you think Pavowski is scummier individually or more vca, flow of the tides.

To me he's scummy in a circumstantial way if that makes any sense?
The general position he's in, the way he has interacted with others and others have treated him, the feeling of some people being aware of him being scummy, while some seem to prefer ignoring his existence, I guess. It all makes me uneasy.

Who do you think falls into each camp here?

hmmm
I assume you mean the camp of aware vs ignoring?
I'm gonna take a look at people's ISOs to get the accurate picture of it all
Note that ignoring doesn't mean no mention of Pav, it means more so less harsh stances and less attention on him:

Aware: Me, Titus, Ari, Coral, GL
Ignoring: Marci, Fruit, Worstie, Gamma, Isis, Cakez, Skitter
Pavowski: Pavowski

Things that stuck out to me while looking at this:
-Coral and TW have given significantly different amounts of attention to Pav.
-Isis barely mentions him, considering her postcount

-It's even worse for Skitter, who also barely mentions him. From what I can see she literally didn't talk about him until 1691, which is impressive.

This post reminds me about the point I made at the bottom, and I still find Skitter's lack of engagement with Pav shocking. At a second glance she did mention him in 193 (which ctrl + f didn't catch because she called him pawvowski) but I think she actually just does not mention him again until 1691.
1953 once again throwing a question about Pav in a larger post, never ever making Pav the focal point of any of her posts.
I also find that 1691 and like the way scum defends their partners, especially considering her previous mention of him is saying she doesn't like him (193). Skitter's progression on Pav is a scumlean very early on thrown into a pile of other reads. Then she questions the push on Pav, but in a "I don't get it" way more than in a "I think Pav is town" way which I don't like. and the way she words it with "wrong place to be focusing" makes her stance on the Pav wagon being bad hinge on her scumreads on other players. Feels like she's using her scumreads on a multitude of other people as where to shift the blame, instead of taking a comprehensive stance on Pav.
Like 2 posts before in 1689 she makes her vast amount of scumreads known, so that when she has to acknowledge Pav finally, she can make those scumreads the central point of her read on Pav.

She then questions GL's preference for Pav in 1948. (Also how does one SR 2/3 of the game but not Pav???)
...and then follows it up with 1949. She makes sure to discredit GL (who is pushing for Pav to get limmed), while making the focus of this his push on Marci, rather than the push on Pav. and like why isn't she also going after him for the push on Pav? She's making it pretty clear she doesn't like the push, but makes sure to keep it adjacent to the actual focus of her posts.
2066 wooooooooo Pav is the focus of this post! Oh but she still takes a vague stance on him and alludes to the Beat wagon instead. Because all of her stances on Pav have to mention the Beat wagon in some way to keep her read on Pav reliant on it instead of a read on him actually existing. Like Skitter is still not reading Pav, this is not reading. It's just "wagon kinda bad" and "idk this reminds me of Beat..." which I find incredibly suspicious.
and then she decides to try it out in 2075? Skitter I'd love your explanation for this vote because I looked before it and I still have no clue why you placed it there? Just cause Ari brought it up? Like you've called the wagon bad, Pav is seemingly not in the 2/3 of the game you suspect and you place your vote there??? and what about GL, who you apparently had bad feelings for his push on Marci and was the one pushing Pav earlier? Like if you wanted to go somewhere with Ari why not pick someone in your vast pool of scumreads?? From what you've said the Pav wagon should be absolutely horrendous to you but you vote for him out of nowhere with a train of logic I have no clue how to follow, in a situation where it buddies you with Ari? (notice 2084)
What even
Okay I guess 2086 has some sort of hint of her reconsidering her reads which makes this less bad but... she only says this when the inconsistency in her thought process gets called out by Beat, it's not something she decides to tell us herself, it's a response to pressure

The beat and gamma wagons felt kinda similar to me, and i was never convinced either were scum

Where is Pav in this? Earlier it was his wagon that was similar to Beat's and now it's Gamma's?

2228 Who? What? Why? Where? When? How? There is no actual progression on this read, the game just moved and Skitter followed.
2232 he's uninspiring? That's all?
2289 of course, a really weird vote on Pav absolves you of all guilt
2291 Feeling like her partner getting limmed is inevitable (this bit may be conf bias but it feels like pessimistic scum thinking more than anything)
2426 Damn Skitter actually finds something Pav did questionable! I'd like this if it was something she came up with, if she added something, and more importantly if it wasn't +1ing something said by someone she's buddying with.
2434 So we're at the 2434th post in the game and the 245th Skitter has made. This is the first instance of her directly engaging with Pav, who is not only yknow another player in the game but someone she's voted for 359 posts ago. Big doubt on her actually trying to sort him here. and this is a very mild post I don't really feel strongly about. It's mainly done to clear up something outright incorrect Pav said.
2448 Questioning Pav's townread on her. Hmm
Neither of these interactions come anywhere near making me think they aren't partnered.
2513 This is the like first post I've seen I actually think is good. Skitter is presented options and goes with the one on scum. Bussing for towncred isn't too likely in this setup so the benefit scum!Skitter gets from doing this doesn't seem too significant. I guess this is much less significant if Marci is also scum because a pivot from Skitter on Gamma or Fruit would look out of the blue here. But also does Skitter/Marci make sense? Like does scum!Skitter spend day 2 focusing her pushes on her 2 partners? It seems very questionable. But then who is she partnered with? Faker? Coral? hmm
2601 Alright. This and the other post are pushing for Pav to be limmed. I'm wondering if she's gotten to a point where she thinks Pav being limmed is inevitable, and therefore supports it so the mafia team doesn't get decimated on D3/D4. Like if a mafia member other than Pav had gotten limmed (Skitter or whoever the third one is if she is), Pav very likely limmed day 3 or day 4. Skitter's said it herself earlier she thinks his (or Gamma's) lim is inevitable. and so she would reluctantly support the wagon on Pav and win the endgame with her other partner, instead of trying to save someone who's doing nothing to help his own case.
2682 WASN'T THE ENTIRE REASON FOR NOT LIKING THE PAV PUSH THAT HE WASN'T ON BEAT? I feel like Skitter would remember it since Pav not being on the Beat wagon was such an integral part of her read on him earlier
2732 the implication of 1 scum in the pool makes me think she's partnered with Gamma here if scum. Especially with the earlier mention of Gamma or Pav being limmed inevitable, it checks out even more with the pessimistic scum mentality I think she had. I'll have to give Faker/Skitter a more thorough look because I recall them interacting in a way that didn't feel partnered earlier?

TLDR: Skitter's progression on Pav perplexes me and I think she's scum.

Pedit: Hmm I'd guess Faker from what I've just seen in your ISO, but I need to everything a second look. Especially with your recent interactions I mentioned earlier. Your focus on Marci D2 seems kind of crazy to have if you/her/Pav are the team. It would make your interactions with Pav make less sense, and your interactions with Marci don't look S/S. Coral and Cakez I actually don't recall there being much reason for you not to be partnered with, so I guess I would have to give them a second glance too.
Marci's lack of equity with you is actually pretty surprising and makes me think I should probably scrutinize people outside of {Skitter, Marci, Faker} a bit more.
Also, I don't think you letting your partner go to endgame over you is unlikely. Coral and Faker I think both can manage well if scum, and Cakez isn't around that much but also isn't really being scumread by many. Marci well, tbh doesn't make sense as partnered with you anymore and this is another reason why. I don't think you really play aggressively with Marci!scum existing.

[Meuh]

I do think that looking at associatives is more productive in sorting her than just trying to read her on vibes. and those associatives aren't great iirc?

do u take issue with my posts

Wdym
I vaguely recall your stance on Pav being partnerlike
I think you’re much less scummy now though cause your partner equity with Skitter is very low and she’s very likely scum

[Aristeia]

ok but why would you think skitter's lack of engagement with Pavo is susp while unvoting Pavo and voting for Fruit?

[Aristeia]

like my issue with 2313

is that you seem to find skitter - pavo relationship susp because lack of engagement

but you're not voting skitter or pavo, you're voting for fruit?

it's not like you're saying weird there's nothing here between skitter and pavo therefore Skitter = scum or pavo = scum or they're both scum together. You're saying actually it should be fruit?

[Meuh]

ok but why would you think skitter's lack of engagement with Pavo is susp while unvoting Pavo and voting for Fruit?

like my issue with 2313

is that you seem to find skitter - pavo relationship susp because lack of engagement

but you're not voting skitter or pavo, you're voting for fruit?

it's not like you're saying weird there's nothing here between skitter and pavo therefore Skitter = scum or pavo = scum or they're both scum together. You're saying actually it should be fruit?

I can scumread more than one person
I was having doubts about my reads and that doubt landed my vote on Fruit
You can find it scummy ig, it wasn’t the most logical vote in the world and I don’t really have much else to say on it
Also the way I interacted with the Pav wagon and the way Skitter did are vastly different and not really comparable
I’ve stated my reasons for my vote already and it does not change that the way Skitter acted around the Pav wagon is very strange, not just from the lack of engagement but everything else I noticed while reading her ISO.

[skitter30]

Meuh a few points:
- i lowkey feel like you decided i was scum, and then went through my iso to find things to support that conclusion

- i find it kinda interesting that you're at one relatively late stage in the preceedings describing me as staying on pav 'due to feeling its inevitable at that point': i was on him for several irl days at that point, ajd had ample opportunity to leave it before that point if i chose, but didn't

- as i explained several times: i found the tuf/marci/gamma/pav(+beat) groupijg to be difficult. I thought there was at least one scum there, but probably just one, and had little confidence that we were going to pick the right one (aside: really easy for my to hop off of pav onto marci, tuf, etc with this stance as his partner), and wanted for something better than just flipping through thr group. At some point or another, i saw something townie from the others, but never from pav, so at the moment i voted him ifelt the worst about him (and felt we were getting stuck on the other alternative wagons), and i never saw a reason to leave

- i had nothing to say to pav for most of the game: he had little content, and people prodding him didnt create more. Unsure what i was meant to add

- wrt potential partners: faker joined eod2, it was gamma before then. I think its unlikely i wouod have played to escape and leave gamma at the helm when he was so wildly suspected, and i wasnt

I covered the bits i want to address, lmk if there's something in particular u want me to respond to

[SirCakez]

I guess I'm just confused why Meuh decides to unvote where she did because

(1) Pavo didn't do anything townie
(2) the people voting Pavo and joining her weren't being scumread by her?

it's such a weird hop off to me.

I really think its meuh, this just seems so scummy to me

Basically this + my PoE has led me to Marci + Meuh

Any interest in joining me on meuh? I think the case on her is p compelling
(And i'm still a little uncertain abt marci)

If not Marci who is the other scum?

[skitter30]

I'm not sure, i'm going one at a time

[skitter30]

(Aside, it is p surprising to me that coral wasnt cleared)

[SirCakez]

Meuh why aren't u voting for skitter if u think she's so scummy?

[Coral]

(Aside, it is p surprising to me that coral wasnt cleared)

It was surprising to me too, and I've been thinking about why. Some reasons I've been considering:
1) Scum don't want my reads to be given the weight and influence that comes from being in the townblock (this fits with scum wanting Ari as queen over me)
2) Scum think that I look like a possible partner to whoever they plan to have escape first
3) Scum thought my noncommittal play around Pav would be enough to make people paranoid

The problem is that the first two reasons point to different people as scum, though, I think. Which makes it hard for me to figure out what I should be taking away from it

[Coral]

She then questions GL's preference for Pav in 1948. (Also how does one SR 2/3 of the game but not Pav???)
...and then follows it up with 1949. She makes sure to discredit GL (who is pushing for Pav to get limmed), while making the focus of this his push on Marci, rather than the push on Pav. and like why isn't she also going after him for the push on Pav? She's making it pretty clear she doesn't like the push, but makes sure to keep it adjacent to the actual focus of her posts.

I saw this as well, I think it's a pretty good point!

That could be what I was seeing earlier, where she attacked GL but focused on the Marci read as a reason for her pushback. My original thought was that she was doing that to hide that she was protecting Gamma, but I think it actually fits just as well for her to be protecting Pav.

[Coral]

The way people position themselves around her gives me the impression she's someone scum want as a lim at some point.

This is surprising to me! I didn't really get that impression, I thought it was mostly Isis who was scumreading her right now. What names were you thinking of here?

Following along with Ari's post, and I'm reminded of this, which I think got lost in the shuffle a bit with the responses to my longer post about skitter. I don't think I ever got a response here. Meuh, do you remember who you were referring to with this? I remember thinking it was kind of an odd thing to say

Meuh, I'd still like an answer to this. Who did you feel was positioning around skitter in this way? Do you still agree with that earlier thought?

[Coral]

I townread worst, Ari, Meuh, Marci, skitter, GL
Scumread Gamma and Beat for sure, Titus is sliding in here and I had Isis as scum but I haven't hated her recent posts
Leaving me with the question marks of Pav, TUF

Cakez, when did your marci read change and what posts caused the change?

Like ages ago it was yesterday when she stopped doing things iirc

Can you be more specific, please?

[skitter30]

I'm just gonna say that i'm entirely baffled how people think ly play is partner-indicative with pav

you guys are both ignoring the context of about 10 posts prior where gl said he was sus of both pav and marci, and i was asking him why he settled on voting *marci* instead of pav (i.e. i was questioning the vote he made *instead* of voting pav) see: 1942

Like yes if you gloss over relevant context, sure, i'm protecting pav there ...
(Fwiw i find cherrypicking quotes and taking things out of context to support an argument to be fairly scummy...)

[Faker]

I'm just gonna say that i'm entirely baffled how people think

Well well well...How the turn tables....