Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[tictac]

very well

VOTE: bnuuy

[Klick]

My current read is exactly bnuuy-tictac-Nashville.

Freedom should not be eliminated, ever. They're just town.
I really don't think SoD is scum either.

[Klick]

If bnuuy is town for some reason then it's Menalque-tictac-Nashville. I don't think that's going to happen though.

[Freedom]

bnuuy is hammered now.
FL is a monk which STD confirmed meaning that if bnuuy flips Werewolf, the team is tictac and one of Nashville, Mena and SoD
But I starting to doubt that SoD is a Werewolf and I don't think that Mena is scum so I'm probably misreading Nashville.

[Cephrir]

votecount 6.F

bnuuy (5) | Klick, Freedom, Flavor Leaf, Menalque, tictac

Flavor Leaf (1) | bnuuy
Nashville Dreams (1) | Sword of Ducks

Not Voting | Flavor Leaf, Freedom, Klick, Nashville Dreams, Menalque

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to politely ask someone to leave.

Deadline: (expired on 2022-06-27 08:31:00).

[Cephrir]

bnuuy has been politely asked to leave Day 6. They were a...

Spoiler:

Werewolf Goon

Night 6.

[Cephrir]

No one has died Night 6.

It is now Day 7.

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to politely ask to leave.

[Sword of Ducks]

wheeeee

[Menalque]

Okay, so tictac or Nashville next?

Also you quite possibly get shot tonight so remind ducks not to try and kill me tomorrow

[Menalque]

Oh wait, we need to kill FL now right? Or no?

You still think wolves need to shoot him tonight?

[Menalque]

Uhh

7 alive

Lim tictac, flips wolf, 6 left

If last wolf doesn’t shoot Fl but shoots conftown and FL shoots them wolves lose

If last wolf shoots FL and FL shoots them then town wins

If wolves and FL both shoot different town then it goes down to 2-1-1

Where town win if the scum cross-shoot, if they both shoot town they draw

So I think scum probably have a forced draw if we flip wolf today

[Menalque]

On the flip side, let’s say we flip FL maf today

Go into night and it’s 3-3

We lose

I think town is lost either way, but I guess probably the best is flip wolf today and hope the scum fuck up?

[Sword of Ducks]

At this point scum fucking up can be counted on.

[Menalque]

Mmm

I mean whatever, I’m literally just a second klick as far as mechanics go

[Nashville Dreams]

On the flip side, let’s say we flip FL maf today

Go into night and it’s 3-3

We lose

I think town is lost either way, but I guess probably the best is flip wolf today and hope the scum fuck up?

This is wrong. There are only 2 wolves alive.

[Nashville Dreams]

If we lim FL, we go to 2 wolves in 5 alive. Elo.

[Freedom]

If we lim FL, we go to 2 wolves in 5 alive. Elo.

You do realise that you're part of some people's PoE, right?

[Freedom]

If we lim a Werewolf today, you're most likely to become the next lim with the way people's reads are currently going.

[Flavor Leaf]

If we lim FL, we go to 2 wolves in 5 alive. Elo.

2 wolves, 1 Maf, 2 town to be exact

[Nashville Dreams]

If we lim FL, we go to 2 wolves in 5 alive. Elo.

You do realise that you're part of some people's PoE, right?

If we lim a Werewolf today, you're most likely to become the next lim with the way people's reads are currently going.

Yes, but I can't play like that. The goal has to be lim scum first and hopefully show I am town that way. The goal is to keep us in control.

[Flavor Leaf]

On the flip side, let’s say we flip FL maf today

Go into night and it’s 3-3

We lose

I think town is lost either way, but I guess probably the best is flip wolf today and hope the scum fuck up?

Why do you think this?

I think town’s in a good spot personally. We hit a wolf today, then wolves always shoot me, mafia has a decent chance of shooting the last wolf.

This actively brings us to 4p with a confirmed town in Klick alive going against 1 Mafia. If Mafia miss, then yeah, it also lowers the possibilities.

It makes absolutely zero sense for both scum teams to not go for the other scum here. It’s way too risky, and could auto lose.

Whichever is a wolf in Nashville and Menalque likely always shoots me tonight, and the other gets shot by Mafia.

[Flavor Leaf]

My 2 cents is we go TicTac today because in Nashville, Sword, Menalque there’s the possibility of hitting town, and I just don’t think TicTac is ever town here.

Then wolves down to 1, Maf at 1, i think there’s a good chance at least one of them die. They have to shoot for each other, meaning Klick is likely to live.

I also think I am like a lock to get shot by Wolves tonight.

The danger is that Mafia hits a townie instead of the wolf.

But Menalque, if Mafia, shoots Nashville or Sword, Nashville shoots Menalque or Sword, and Sword shoots Menalque or Nashville. They have a 50/50 chance at face value, but with play and reads, Mafia probably knows where the last wolf is.

This brings tomorrow into a 50/50 who the last Mafia between 2 of those 3 with Klick and Freedom alive.


Like no wolf risks letting me live here, I feel.

[Flavor Leaf]

I looked into TicTac/Bnuuy/Menalque posts, and all 3 of them were pushing like it was a foregone conclusion that I was Mafia.

I think that comes from a TMI Wolf POV who knows that they didn't stop any kills.

That means Mafia probably No-Killed on Night 2 and 3, and shot Catboi Night 1.


Night 1 Mafia kills Catboi. Wolves No-Kill.
Night 2 Mafia No-Kills. Wolves Kill Butterchurn.
Night 3 Mafia No-kills. Wolves Kill SPC.

Night 4 Mafia Kills MegAzumarill. Wolves Kill CSF.
Night 5 Mafia Kills Keeper. Wolves Kill STD.
Night 6 Both No Kill.

It's exactly what Titus said that Mafia had to do days back, and it tricked Wolves into legitimately thinking that I was Mafia based on an extra unexplainable missing Night Kill.

So this means Titus is either right that Sword is scum, or is Mafia herself who sit this up knowing that she'd be at the end having to get Sword of Ducks misfaded in final 4, but I'd have to check the math on that to see if that was seeable.

It's hard because both Sword and Nashville have been helping me so I genuinely see townieness in both of them, but one of them have to be scum. It also makes sense why Mafia didn't want me flipped because it immediately opens them back up. Titus opened up Sword and Myself yesterday, so I think I slightly lean Nashville. I don't think she is a Wolf here, though.


Menalque and TicTac are wolves in almost every scenario I'm looking at here. His tone is good and townie the past couple days, but when you look back at some of the stuff in the past, like the hyper defense of Catboi, then push onto Bnuuy and TicTac super hard, but somehow it was his Toogeloo push that went through.

His post saying "look at Bnuuy, that is a scum ISO". He just defended Catboi hard, then distanced against his other two. He also voted Mathblade, and then also went to me, so he was fence sitting, and he coasted throughout.

I'm not saying we fade Menalque here, I actually specifically want TicTac.

And then whoever is Mafia in Sword and Nashville should already see that Menalque is Mafia.

I think going TicTac today gets us to a favorable end game nicely.

This is a good position for town.

People saying town isn't in a good position isn't coming from a town POV, they're trying to act like they're coming from a town POV.

[Flavor Leaf]

Okay, so tictac or Nashville next?

Also you quite possibly get shot tonight so remind ducks not to try and kill me tomorrow

Assuming this is talking about Klick getting shot tonight, this always come from a scum POV, I would say it's almost a 'playing dumb tell' kinda mentality.

Wolves never aim for Klick because they need to take down Mafia.

Mafia never aims for Klick because they need to take down a Wolf.

If I am somehow wrong about Nashville not being a Wolf, I think Menalque is 100% Mafia here, but I truly don't see a world where Menalque is town here.

Their tone and posting

feels

townie, but their actions from early in game, specifically Day 1 and also later perspective on my slot makes me feel Menalque realized that Mafia could sus them out based on the way they were reacting to my slot, then he changed his play thereafter.

Fading TicTac means ScumMenalque always shoots me tonight. Wolves will lose this game going that route.

It's Town or Mafia, 4p elo with a 50/50 on Sword/Nashville. Freedom being scum would be hilarious, but I town read all 3 of their slots, and I don't think WallFlower replaces out in the scenario they were scum getting yelled at by Catboi.

[Flavor Leaf]

ScumMe has no reason to kill Catboi, who was replaced by RCEnigma.

1: the slot was likely to be faded after that Day 1.
2: RCEnigma is one of my closest buddies here on site + it's on record that I can pocket him, and push him while they still town read me.

ScumMe has no reason to kill Mastina Scum Partner immediately after Enchant had died. It makes no sense as a Monk who was likely to get night killed by Wolves. I believe the only reason I didn't get killed was because Mathblade came after me. It's possible that on Night 3 Wolves shot at me, and Mathblade protected me, and then Mafia killed SPC to lower the defense on me, but I really don't see that as more likely than Mafia No Killed to keep the Mathblade-FL drama going, knowing that a Mathblade-FL double misfade was likely. Math and I let scum hide behind our 1v1.

Town has a solid chance at winning this game.

CSF has no reason to have Friendly Neighbored me the night after they did it to Menalque. It does absolutely nothing for a scum partner, and was just there to get CSF more protection from townies. All it did was get them killed by Wolves.

I pushed Mastina Day 1. Pushed CSF Day 2. Shot Mastina Night 2.


Okay, there's my analysis/defense for the day along with my final reads of Menalque/TicTac always wolf. Nashville Mafia over Sword. Not entirely positive on that, but I kinda think it's funny if SwordMafia wins this whole thing, though, but they have gotten the newb pass from me here.