Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

[Aristeia]

Ari have you ever mislimmed skitter

I don't think so

[Aristeia]

Still see no reason to unvote my Marci vote

im town

does your brother misread you?

[Isis]

Wait I should get my brother to play mafia

[Isis]

Ooooh

[Meuh]

ok so if you scumread Pavo & Fruit - why move from Pavo who you had

good reasons

to vote for and was at 5 votes and viable for elim to move your vote to Fruit who had at that time 0 votes?

What did changed in the game that made you doubt your Pavo vote?

Nothing changed in the game iirc, it was my own thoughts leading me there
I often hit these walls in games of paranoia about the way I'm thinking and end up being wrong and completely doing 180s. Often it's from IRL factors and/or mislims happening, sometimes it happens naturally

I think while the context is a bit different (Fruit was more of a gamestate read and I felt meh about his individual posts), the mentality I have in my read on Greeting in a past game is similar. The general deterioration of my thought process too. If meta isn't compelling to you that's fine but I think this is the best way I can express this.

Spoiler: Self-meta time yay!

So starting off on day 1

Greeting [T]

MegAzumarill [/M]

Strangematter [//M]

I'll get my vote to a more appropriate spot and VOTE: MegAzumarill.

Snipped a bunch but Greeting was my hardest townread at first, and for the entirety of day 1 he kept that spot. That read was correct. I correctly scumread both mafia (Meg + Strange) and voted for one, too.

VOTE: StrangeMatter

Prefer my vote here.

May be wrong on this idea but I feel like Strange's in a position a lot of mafia members are: widely null or slightly scumread with not much radical takes, and without much pressure on them. I think this kind of null or slight scumread is what a lot of mafia members like to read each other, I could see many players be doing this regarding Strange.
Strange is also to me probably the player who has the widest net of possible scum partners (other than Asu I suppose), so that's also something that makes them a correct vote here more often. I suppose this delves into preflip associations which you may not all like but eh
I'll say I've liked Meg's recent posts a bit more than their earlier ones so that also nudges me that way. Not sure how I feel about Hawk's new posts though

Correctly voting for the other scum here.

VOTE: Cabd

POE

I honestly just don't really see many realistic scum teams within the 8 slots that have been active and townread most people so I think Cabd just has to be scum here.
Main issue with this elim would be lack of info from the flip which would kinda suck, but I just don't really know where else we should elim here, none of the options really have me convinced
Maybe Strange is still a better elim just cause it provides more info on flip and I can see that slot be scum but meh, I think mafia Cabd is

significantly

more likely than it is for anyone else

I really think Meg's town here, idk why exactly but their vibes are immaculate at the moment

Remembering this moment, it's a similar mentality I had when voting for Fruit. Despite having scumreads which turned out to be correct, I voted a slot with barely any activity over POE. Doubt over my own reads + me townreading a lot of people are what made me move my vote. I didn't realize my mentality was that similar

Greeting's town. Not voting for him if it can be avoided

Still confidently reading Greeting as town.

*Cabd then gets limmed and flips town*

This is significant because mislims always make those kinds of 180s from me more likely.

*Day 2 starts*

My first thought was 2 scum in Prohawk/Meg/Strange so I’m leaning towards them being on the Cabd wagon

Still an accurate pool, for now.

I was leaning towards ProHawk earlier but I think the way he’s interacted with others makes me doubt he’s scum

To me the elim pool is Strange/Marci/Meg, that’s where I’m willing to go, I don’t think Prohawk/Greeting/Cape should be voted out here

Now my reads are significantly shuffling around for the first time since I made a readslist ages ago. I'm swapping out a townie for another townie in my scumpool, which is fine for now but soon it gets worse. Uncertainty on my reads and feeling just not great in general are a great pairing as always!

My read on Greeting may just be cognitive dissonance

I feel conflicted on the slot but I’m just hanging onto the idea he’s just acted a bit too much like a townie in some posts to be scum

I feel like an idiot right now honestly

Maybe Greeting’s the slot to elim here actually

If Strange flips town I have no clue where to go from there

At least with Greeting there’s some semblance of direction if it’s wrong

Is this just Marci/Greeting? It may be

I’m not voting for Greeting either way cause E-1 makes me uncomfortable

I think leaving the Meg/Greeting thing alone any longer could just cause issues for us

Greeting’s behaviour in the first few posts of this day just seem like scum trying to appeal to a trusted townie in order to reinforce their own place in the game

Don’t like it

Greeting’s behaviour in the first few posts of this day just seem like scum trying to appeal to a trusted townie in order to reinforce their own place in the game

Don’t like it

???

Who are you even talking about as a trusted townie? And, what do you mean by trying to appeal to a trusted townie?

Sorry for not being clear, to me it just seemed like the way Greeting approached the start of the day was deliberately to appeal to me (who is one of the more townread players), and by appealing to me, getting his name out of the elim pool for today, or at the very least my vote off of him.
Don’t know if it fully makes sense but I’m paranoid of getting pocketed and I think that might be what Greeting’s been attempting as of late? On a reread Greeting’s early day 2 isn’t that bad in terms of pocketing potential but idk, it felt like all of our thoughts magically lined up and I don’t like that

I feel sad reading back on this

But here, after the mislim and 5 minutes after I replaced ProHawk with Marci in my scumpool, I'm now doubting Greeting's alignment.

Prohawk can be town if its just marcistar and Greeting.
Marci's play today feels s/s with Greeting although I'm not for sure about it.

I mean I’m fine with a Greeting lim, he could be scum with either Marci or ProHawk, I don’t think Marci/ProHawk is S/S

So now

Meuh

is choosing to ignore me and go with

MegAzumarill

. It's a real shame.

Greeting flailing go brrrrr

AtE go brrrrrrrrr

So now I'm besties with scum and openly saying I want to vote Greeting

Very well.

Greeting

is the Town Cop.

I investigated

marcistar

N1 and they’re town.

Greeting claims cop. This is where I stop, right??? Right???

If there’s no scum between Greeting/Meg I’ll actually just cry

I am struggling and scared

We have 15 hours left.

It is time to decide.

I willingly put myself at E-1. Do the deed, then go for

MegAzumarill

and

ProHawk

. And the game, although this may be hard to believe, can still be won.

Well, alright. VOTE: Greeting it’s been done.

...I hammer an unccd cop claim. To be fair he wanted to be hammered but still.

This might be hard to follow since I know meta is hard to fully understand but I hope you can get a glimpse of those sorts of hitting a wall moments for me. While not as extreme, I've hit some this game too, like when voting for Fruit or with my turnaround on GL.
I think explaining my mentality this way just works better at making you understand those moments than explaining my logic behind them. Honestly, logic doesn't play much of a role in those moments, to put it simply.

[Meuh]

Like I don't understand why you think Skitter's vote on Pavo was strange. Like if she never votes for Pavo there, he doesn't really become a thing? You had previously voted Pavo twice and nothing really happened. Skitter voting Pavo caused me to sheep her onto Pavo which she knew would happen before she voted there and that drew more people to Pavo at put him at five. I'm not sure why you think that's something Scum!her does? Like does it make sense for scum!her to defend Town!Gamma from a wagon to instead wagon Pavo her partner?

and this is not the reason why I felt Skitter's vote was weird in the first place.
What feels weird to me is what town!Skitter's reasoning for placing a vote there was in the first place. Reading around it, the vote seems to just lack real justification for being placed there, it feels unnatural in that way.
Of course the outcome of it all was good and it's the most town-indicative thing in Skitter's whole ISO, but that's not really what I was thinking of.

Also, pretty sure I've asked Skitter why she voted for Pav and she didn't answer, unless I missed it. Would still like to know.

[GuiltyLion]

Meuh, what would you say you've done this game that you wouldn't do as scum? what's the strongest point (in your mind) of evidence for you as town?

[SirCakez]

I townread worst, Ari, Meuh, Marci, skitter, GL
Scumread Gamma and Beat for sure, Titus is sliding in here and I had Isis as scum but I haven't hated her recent posts
Leaving me with the question marks of Pav, TUF

Cakez, when did your marci read change and what posts caused the change?

Like ages ago it was yesterday when she stopped doing things iirc

Can you be more specific, please?

not really? there's not like one post where I was like "ya marci is scum here." she just stopped making good posts.

Like it's somehat confusing to me how the conclusion here is: this is indicative of partners with pav

I'm also baffled why if i'm scum with pav i:

Insist there's scum in pav/marci/gamma/tuf
Resist the marci wagon for a while
Eventually join the pav one (as one od the first votes)
And then just sit there till hammer without trying to get any other wagons?

So i'm purposefully trying to bus him
Why again?

Pedit i dont think that was my argument at all?

ya skitts is not scum here

definitely not a fan of 3261 feels like Meuh is trying to fit skitter's posts into a box world where she is scum when she seems pretty transparently town to me? and like Meuh even acknowledges some of skitter's points are fair but just sort of handwaves them away.

I think Meuh going all in on you means she escapes if she's scum and you're town like 99/100 times?

I agree with this and I kinda feel like this makes meuh more likely scum

what even is the use of keeping me around..

this shit is so fake like c'mon!

[Meuh]

Meuh, what would you say you've done this game that you wouldn't do as scum? what's the strongest point (in your mind) of evidence for you as town?

I've taken weird stances, my reads have changed massively over time and there's barely any read I've stuck to this entire game.
I get that's odd to see as town indicative, but I literally can't fake read evolution or hot takes as scum.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=89392
My scumplay is so milquetoast it's sad.

...now I'm starting to feel if I delve deeper into my scum meta, if I do roll scum against you guys I'll get destroyed

[SirCakez]

which is completely nonsensical on several fronts here.

how? I had a tone town read on worst like all game.

[SirCakez]

meuh who do you have as the other scum besides skitter?

[GuiltyLion]

Cakez do you see anything between marci/Meuh that looks partnery? are you more confident on marci?

(also feel free to refer me back to a prior post if you've answered these already, just trying to participate in real time while I'm here and rereading)

[SirCakez]

I haven't looked at links between them, no. I might if one of them flips scum but my SRs are independent of each other rn.

[marcistar]

Still see no reason to unvote my Marci vote

im town

does your brother misread you?

idk i havent played with either of my brothers theyre both too nerdy for me

[marcistar]

not really? there's not like one post where I was like "ya marci is scum here." she just stopped making good posts.

do u even care why or r u just gonna keep drilling the same point over and over again

[Meuh]

meuh who do you have as the other scum besides skitter?

Marci makes no sense as a partner so not her.
Faker is like possible but I don't think is very likely.
You or Coral would be it, leaning towards Coral because you've read pretty town to me this game.
Though now I'm starting to doubt Skitter being scum and it's all blegh
but like if she isn't scum who is?
Like 2 of {Coral, Marci, Faker} I guess? Maybe you but I don't find it that likely
Haven't really delved into the associative between those 3 but I don't recall any of them sounding impossible

[GuiltyLion]

I might if one of them flips scum

:thonk:

[GuiltyLion]

I guess that comment makes sense if Cakez is assuming scum will escape instead of being limmed today? or did he just forget that limming scum today is autowin? is that more likely to come from town?

I want that post to be a slip in one direction or the other but I don't know if it intuitively makes sense to me which direction it'd be AI

[Isis]

I think skitter did a similar thing a while ago. At least she acted like she would flip and I would have no information besides what she had just told me about her own alignment all along and "whaoaoao where do you wander from there then Isis?!?!?" Instead of like "I genuinely think Meuh is scum and you will let her escape"

[Isis]

Fakers twilight posting on the topic was town AI imo

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see a lot of partners for skitter tbh, she feels like she's all alone this game

it's likely not Cakez (blatant D1 buddying/agreeing, doesn't feel S-S), it's likely not Meuh (potential duel to the death today), need to review interactions with marci but I feel like I remember someone v recently saying they're not aligned for some reason, and there was an interaction around Pav I remember feeling really anti-partnery

which just kinda leaves Coral/Cakez?

p-edit: Yah, but that actually maybe feels more town indicative from skitter, like I could see town forgetting about the scum escape mechanic on their townflip, whereas Cakez seems to have a default assumption of either 1) we're not limming scum today or 2) game would continue if scum get limmed. Both are a bit wonky to me but if it was truly genuinely 2 that feels hard to imagine coming from scum

[GuiltyLion]

though I guess I could see it coming from scum!skitter as a not-fully-thought-out-bluff

[Meuh]

Hi yeah I think that was me. I don't really think Marci/Skitter makes any sense at all. Scum!Skitter pushing both of her partners on day 2 in a setup that discourages bussing is ??? and her interactions with Marci don't seem S/S iirc

[GuiltyLion]

which just kinda leaves Coral/

Cakez

Faker

?

EBWOP also this should have been Faker if that wasn't clear

[GuiltyLion]

Skit's whole dialogue and de-escalation with Ari in the 50s-pages feels overall town to me still on reread

Like there was friction between them for a lot of the game leading up to it but I think if Skit had an agenda she would have kept pushing for it in some form or another instead of olive branch reach out in 1251 and 1348? Those posts just feel plain ol pure to me, I don't smell any manipulation

I'd defer to Ari on it if she has a different opinion but personally from the outside it feels like a real TvT