Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

[Isis]

I guess I don't have a confident enough skitter read to disagree with a bunch of conftown

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno I'm still trying to parse out how I feel overall

I think if I had to take a preliminary stab at it I'd go town to scum
marci->Coral->skitt->Meuh->Faker->Cakez

but these are all very close to each other and Faker/Cakez (while not impossible) doesn't quite scream correct solve to me

[Isis]

Game hard

[GuiltyLion]

one thing that I want to pay closer attention to (once I decide I'm done rereading D1) is Faker's evolution from hard pushing Cakez EOD2 to pushing marci today

It could make sense to me as S-S, like, distance enough so that when one escapes tonight it feels implausible that the other is partnered, while not actually actively working to get each other limmed

I'm not absolutely sold on marci!town but people seriously advocating for her lim today need to do a lot more work to sell me on that read

[GuiltyLion]

I will say through page 56 there has not been a single thing that makes me think Cakez and Pav are likely not aligned

[GuiltyLion]

I townread worst, Ari, Meuh, Marci, skitter, GL
Scumread Gamma and Beat for sure, Titus is sliding in here and I had Isis as scum but I haven't hated her recent posts
Leaving me with the question marks of Pav, TUF

like this is Cakez first actual mention of Pav and it's 62 pages into the game

[SirCakez]

not really? there's not like one post where I was like "ya marci is scum here." she just stopped making good posts.

do u even care why or r u just gonna keep drilling the same point over and over again

why? say it then

I guess that comment makes sense if Cakez is assuming scum will escape instead of being limmed today? or did he just forget that limming scum today is autowin? is that more likely to come from town?

I want that post to be a slip in one direction or the other but I don't know if it intuitively makes sense to me which direction it'd be AI

derp I did forget that
I literally always forget setup intricacies I was the game-losing mislim once because of it...

[GuiltyLion]

how is reversing a question that i'd just asked someone else "a good faith question"? like why would i ever be incentivised to answer this when you asked it?

i think gamma's specific brand of explosion is probably town indicative. i don't think that's specifically because of the vote pattern pav was looking at though and i was interested in him expanding.

you're asking him a question which implies you've thought about it yourself if you're town.

you are incentivized to answer me because you want me to sort you correctly

especially

if I get flipped today because in the case that I'm town you want me to slot you correctly. If I don't slot you correctly there's a fairly good chance I can kill you from the grave and that likely leads to a town loss.

i feel zero pressure to be read correctly by you. i don't think you're town here, and i trust 1) actual town to get me right; 2) myself to react to a gamestate where i need to be easier to read. my priority here is to sort other slots. my answering that question explicitly signals to pav what i'm looking for in a response and disallows me to use that line of enquiry to sort a slot i'm not confident on (pav).



pedit: allergic ;(

this is not a complicated or niche situation. this is how sorting people works.

i didn't "fart noise" because i don't want to engage with you. i "fart noise"d to signal that my answering that question would be a misplay on my part. idk, another active player on this site has accused me of being a bully as well so maybe i am just toxic. what you're reading into that response is far from my intention though.

forgot about this post but this is super town IMO in light of Pav scumflip and Ari town

[SirCakez]

I townread worst, Ari, Meuh, Marci, skitter, GL
Scumread Gamma and Beat for sure, Titus is sliding in here and I had Isis as scum but I haven't hated her recent posts
Leaving me with the question marks of Pav, TUF

like this is Cakez first actual mention of Pav and it's 62 pages into the game

ya because I forgot he was in the game LOL

[GuiltyLion]

Also maybe I'm taking crazy pills but I do not find the Marci / Fruit back and forth genuine

does Pav post this if marci is his partner? what's the gain? marci would probably easily win a 1v1 with Fruit here, she doesn't need buddies to help, all this would be doing is shining a light on a scumbuddy who is largely townread at this point

[skitter30]

I think skitter did a similar thing a while ago. At least she acted like she would flip and I would have no information besides what she had just told me about her own alignment all along and "whaoaoao where do you wander from there then Isis?!?!?" Instead of like "I genuinely think Meuh is scum and you will let her escape"

I mean i've said that a few times too and you werent receptive

[skitter30]

(Well actually i forgot escaping was a thing for a bit but once i remembered / ari pointed that out i said that too)

[Faker]

~It's going to be a day for me~ but we'll see how much grinding I can get done at degen hours.

Kind of unfortunate that everyone else is on too normal of a sleep schedule for me.

[skitter30]

I dunno I'm still trying to parse out how I feel overall

I think if I had to take a preliminary stab at it I'd go town to scum
marci->Coral->skitt->Meuh->Faker->Cakez

but these are all very close to each other and Faker/Cakez (while not impossible) doesn't quite scream correct solve to me

I really, really think meuh should be higher/first on this list

[skitter30]

I guess I don't have a confident enough skitter read to disagree with a bunch of conftown

Who are u agreeing with abt what exactly
- ari thinks i'm town and thinks meuh is scum
- gl is pushing faker/cakez/meuh and just said he thinks me/mari are kinda townie (that's your exact scumteam apparently)
- tuf thinks its marci but also has no idea what's going this game
- idk what titus is thinking tbh

But what conftown am i telling you to disagree with again?

[GuiltyLion]

I think you misunderstood that Isis post, I believe she's saying she's not confident enough on you!scum to disagree with Ari & me townreading you

[skitter30]

Oh fair enuf, i misread it if that's ehat she means

If that is what she means that's a p bad argument imo

[Isis]

Ok im Kobe and I won't unvote you for the rest of the game

[skitter30]

Ok i give up trying to convince u otherwise then

[Isis]

No you encouraged me not to get input from my other townreads, you're ny only allowed source of reading you, so really a lot of responsibility falls on your shoulders now

[Isis]

Like if you were town you would only need me to vote scum and you win

As scum you need me to believe in my heart you're town so you make it two day phase, or you need to undermine my beliefs constantly.

Probably 3391 is just an assinine townpost but it's slightly more scumwincon aligned if you're not escapee

[skitter30]

I ... just think we're completely talking past each other
This is frustrating me and idk how communicate better so i think i'm just going to try to end this convo again, and i guess see how well i can stick with that

[Isis]

I think faker also hinted she has an affinity for arguing at people for townreading her so maybe she will do it some to even things out

[Aristeia]

I guess I don't have a confident enough skitter read to disagree with a bunch of conftown

I'm willing to sheep you !

[Coral]

like let's talk about skitter's plan here if she's actually mafia and gamma/faker is town here.

Mechanically it is a fairly simple play in three parts.

Phase I:

Defend the LHF Town(Gamma) to establish the link
Bus her teammate(Pavo)
Flip Pavo.

Phase II:

Survive the next Day Phase off the Cred from Pushing Pavo.
Flip Someone Else.
Escape

Phase III:

Gamma gets yeeted due to Associatives
Win.


Faker replacing Gamma messed up her plan and now she's pushing.

I mean it's plausible as a line of play but it's not something I expect her to do?

I could always just be wrong. >_>

I think that

a) She may not have had this entire plan in mind from the start. i think that her actions in phase 1 were to incrementally improve the position of the scumteam by repeatedly pushing back on the reads of people of people who were scumreading her partner, Pav (looking back, actually all of the people that i had initially called her out for attacking were scumreading pav. i thought it was about gamma, but i think you're right that it was establishing a fake link). she then has the option of bussing pav if necessary, and it gives her a fairly clean path out. but i think when she voted there she probably didn't expect the wagon to actually go through due to the general apathy and inactiveness of people. the pav lim came from you and isis, not from the votes. my guess would be that she wanted to be on record as voting pav early but actually let him escape

b) Even if she did have the entire plan in mind from the start, i don't see why she wouldn't do it? it seems like a pretty good plan to me