Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

[Titus]

My exhusband will be there.

[Faker]

The quotes of Cakez from worst mean zero to me looking at them. Aristeia makes pushes that are genuinely disturbing and have troubling long-term implications to scum players. I would know.

Can you elaborate on this because I have no idea what it means

This is the only comment I am willing to make on the topic. I will not discuss this further than I have already.

Absolutely wild that you can accuse anyone else of handwaving with a straight face. I see little to no reason to believe that the emotions displayed are AI, and cited Aristeia's history with the worst to back it up. We know that worst got sick and tired of how Aristeia plays and how she chose to engage with the worst. I do not think the fact the way the push happened (Which the worst interpreted as "You need to be here every waking moment or else you're scum") is anywhere close to clearing.

I could cite examples of scum players ragereplacing at reasoning they don't like, in PYP we had a case of our very own PookyTheTacticalBear, but I don't think they will persuade you that the worst specifically does. I do think the specific history that this is, at least to my knowledge, the

third time

that worst has absolutely hated playing with Aristeia and replaced out because of her suggests that it is a matter of when, not if, it would happen as SvT.

[Faker]

I would love to hear a more affirmatively-clearing argument from you if you are that concerned about handwaving and not taking your arguments seriously.

It is your claim that Coral is town for them, and while I do make secondary arguments around Pavowski's posting, I have at no point made a claim that the replace-out with Aristeia was itself scum-indicative. I have explained why I do not believe arguments they are near-clearing hold water, and I have had to mostly envision those arguments by myself because in your case, they were never made.

Right now the extent of your posting on worst was "gut", you've repeatedly doubled down on "gut" even when prodded about it, and your extent of writing for why the interactions with Aristeia are clearing was saying "these posts". I am glad that you can be the minimalist to my maximalist, but again consider what is being handwaved.

[Coral]

Honestly, actually, looking back at my thought process here, I'm having a slight moment of worry that Meuh has realigned herself intentionally and I did have it backwards. I'll shelve that idea for now and look at it later.

Following up on this, I want to track how Meuh shifted position and see if it feels natural.

Starting from here:

This is where my head's at rn

Townread: Titus, Marci, GL
Townlean: Ari, Isis, Cakez
Neutral/conflicted: Skitter, Fruit, Worstie
Scumlean: Gamma, Pav
Scumread: Beat

Not interested in a lim in the town tiers. Maybe in the neutral tier, and I'm good with a lim in the scum tiers.

Post flip, she goes onto Pav in 1665, says maybe we should lim Gamma and that there were scum on the Beat wagon in 1675, starts to reconsider things in 1809, and posts 1918, which I still like a lot, actually, although skitter posting 1915 right before where she doesn't like Gamma for scum could be connected. At this point Meuh is now less interested in Gamma, and votes GL in 1921.

One thing that I think is interesting is that based on their positions and the way that Meuh was talking about skitter, at the time I felt like skitter had pocketed Meuh. But looking more closely now, I don't really see a lot of evidence for that. I think there's more cases where Meuh could be following skitter onto things than the other way around.

From here she stays pretty consistent in her positions, following through to here:

Faker/Fruit/Marci are all town tbh...

At least one scum in GL/Titus/Isis, I stand by this

Coral I could also see be scum I guess

Ari's town though, so is Cakez

Pavowski's Pavowski

Skitter uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh idk at this point

Hmm Skitter/GL/Titus/Pav are probably the scummiest players in the game

I should maybe reread stuff though

VOTE: GuiltyLion I like having my vote there, it's very comfortable
Better than on Fruit

At the time I felt like this post was intentional repositioning, because she was previously healing me and Isis, was voting Fruit, and had recently voted Pav, but now seemed to be trying to realign herself. Looking back now, though, I can see how it would track for the most part, the one issue to me is the Fruit read. It really makes it strange to me that she would vote Fruit over Pav earlier, only to townread him once there wasn't any need for a counterwagon because we were doing the town leader thing.

Shortly after this, Isis picks Pav and that's the lim. From here, looking at how she says Skitter/GL/Titus/Pav are the scummiest, two of those end up confirmed town and one flips scum. So from that perspective, it makes a lot of sense that she would go to skitter next.

What's weird to me then is 3047, her first post after the flip. Here she suddenly jumps to eliminating Faker+marci being winning? Part of me feels like this is her having a fear that with multiple slots on the Beat wagon confirmed town, she needs to get out in front of anyone looking for scum there and push the others despite her previous townreads on them. This post has almost zero follow-up, though. As soon as skitter goes onto her, her focus is almost entirely there. GL reminds her of it, and she says she stands by it in 3190 but prefers skitter. She stays focused primarily on skitter for a while, and then there's this:

meuh who do you have as the other scum besides skitter?

Marci makes no sense as a partner so not her.
Faker is like possible but I don't think is very likely.
You or Coral would be it, leaning towards Coral because you've read pretty town to me this game.
Though now I'm starting to doubt Skitter being scum and it's all blegh
but like if she isn't scum who is?
Like 2 of {Coral, Marci, Faker} I guess? Maybe you but I don't find it that likely
Haven't really delved into the associative between those 3 but I don't recall any of them sounding impossible

Her pool of Coral/Marci/Faker, if skitter town, tracks pretty well. But again, there's no follow up on it, and I think that could be because it's not really a viable place to push. Of the uncleared slots those are probably the 3 with the least momentum towards them. She has a few more developments with 3475 and 3479.

Post 3617 set off alarm bells for me and was what made me want to look at all of this in the first place, to see what led her to that place. This really felt to me like she was following the momentum that has been somewhat building towards Cakez. I think it's kinda believable that she could end up here, because she's been throwing out a lot of potential directions and this was one of them. The thing that worries me is that it feels like after she does throw out those possible directions, she tends to only really follow the ones that other people will be willing to pick up and follow. When under threat herself, she doesn't really ever have conviction on a read that wouldn't benefit her to have. She did have conviction on cakez being town, but then as soon as that starts becoming an option, that read falls away.



So! Sorry this was kind of meandering, I didn't really know what I was going to find when I went looking, and I'm not sure I feel that strongly one way or another. Some thoughts:

- I think most of her progression through d2 makes sense, with the exception being the move onto Fruit, which has been talked about at length already
- Her opening to today onto Faker + Marci and then mostly ignoring that direction later kind of feels like she came in with a plan of what to do and then abandoned that once the reception wasn't what she wanted.
- In general, the reads that she pushes and has conviction on today seem to be the ones that would help her

I'm not really sure what to think about all this in the end. There's things about her posts that feel like she's naturally thinking things through, and reading skitter's posts still tends to evoke much more of that gut "this is scum talking" reaction than Meuh's do for me, but the big picture feels different. Meuh in a way feels like she's doing more hunting than skitter because she's more flexible, but the thing that concerns me is that it feels like she's sometimes following where there's momentum (cakez) and disregarding things where there's not (faker/marci). In contrast, it feels like when skitter finds a read that she cares about, even if there's no momentum there she wants to push on it.

I'll keep thinking about what this means, but I'm not as sure that skitter is who I would choose if I had to pick one as scum between skitter/meuh anymore. Then again, I also haven't really thought at all about who Meuh could be paired with if scum. Maybe I'll do that later, this post is long enough already.

[Coral]

I also just want to acknowledge that Faker and Andante have suspicions on my slot, and usually I'd engage with and respond to those, but it seems like most of the suspicions center around actions from the worst, which I don't think it would very useful for me to talk about.

I'm always happy to talk if you have anything you want to talk about from my own posts, though! If I missed anything that you would like a response to, feel free to point me that way!

[Ydrasse]

VOTE COUNT 3.6

[2]

Coral

: Faker, Andante

[2]

Meuh

: skitter30, SirCakez

[2]

SirCakez

: GuiltyLion, Meuh

[1]

skitter30

: Isis

[4]

Not voting

: Aristeia, marcistar, Titus, Coral

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day two ends in (expired on 2022-06-29 23:42:43)

MOD NOTES

• please let me know if there are any errors, i do this by hand.

• GuiltyLion and SirCakez currently V/LA.

• have fun!

[SirCakez]

Time to backstab Faker!!!

uhh I mean... no! lol

but for real I like actually agree with Faker here though on the worst/coral. Like, what part of 3677 is ridiculous? I could just say "this wall post from X was terrible" but like, what part of it don't you like?

cause faker said "I legitimately think this is Pavowski feeling bad about a partner being townread for that rage-replaceout."
like pav said "not just because the Duck is my dude, but because the moment you start trying to figure out people's emotional reactions to things it quickly becomes a minefield "

I know when I'm maf and I like get super mad at someone, I'll instantly start feeling bad, and that's where I'll say more "I'd probably do that as maf" as like, a way to NOT be TRed off emotions, and it genuinely feels like that's what Pav's doing in that post, and I don't think Faker made some ridiculous stretch there..

I don't understand why they'd do that though.like just take the free town cred and everyone would understand post game ya?

[SirCakez]

I will write up a more extensive town case for worst coral when I'm off v/la
I never claimed gut as a reasoning for that read

[SirCakez]

And note that I had worst as a townread even before the Ari blowup
I liked how he involved in the RP squad early game

[marcistar]

wgufjdshcn i wanna buy more dresses but i dont wanna go on the hunt for the ones that fit the aesthetic i want iruhsfdc

[Isis]

Idk how dating works I'm gonna become a nun

[Aristeia]

Dating is kind of like mafia except you don't have to convince anyone to vote for him if he's susp.

[Andante]

lol I haven't been here long but I love this game

[Andante]

if yall are deadset on coral town, I'd be ok with meuh first

[Isis]

I don't understand

[Isis]

If faker is 99.9% that she has correctly read worst as mafia and I'm 90% sure I read coral as mafia isnt it most likely that Faker is mafia and the read is a simulation

[Andante]

I thought you were TRing coral?

[Aristeia]

that is what she is saying yes.

[Meuh]

Sircakez more like pancakes because we should flip him amirite???

[Meuh]

Post 3617 set off alarm bells for me and was what made me want to look at all of this in the first place, to see what led her to that place. This really felt to me like she was following the momentum that has been somewhat building towards Cakez. I think it's kinda believable that she could end up here, because she's been throwing out a lot of potential directions and this was one of them. The thing that worries me is that it feels like after she does throw out those possible directions, she tends to only really follow the ones that other people will be willing to pick up and follow. When under threat herself, she doesn't really ever have conviction on a read that wouldn't benefit her to have. She did have conviction on cakez being town, but then as soon as that starts becoming an option, that read falls away.

I legitimately just follow momentum regardless of alignment, if people are saying something and it makes sense to me I'm just like "sure, why not".

It's amplified too since we have a bunch of conf townies to trust here.

Adante's opening thought process I liked a good bit actually and with it ending up with Cakez as a likely scum candidate it resonated with me which made me all the more interested in limming him.

[skitter30]

ok, but then why did all of the next people saying "I'd vote pav" become conf towns? like, why not include skitter with those?

You realizd that if i were scum, and had control over who became conftowned, i a would be aware of such optics, right?

And, again, that i could have just not started said wagon, and could have hopped off fairly easily?

[Coral]

I legitimately just follow momentum regardless of alignment, if people are saying something and it makes sense to me I'm just like "sure, why not".

if that's the case then it does make it difficult to see what are your own original thoughts and what are just reads of convenience. I understand following momentum from conftowns, I think they should be leading the elim for the most part, but I struggle to understand how that impacts your own conviction. if you have a read that isn't widely picked up on, do you tend to feel discouraged and less interested in pursuing that read?

what do you think at this point of your idea that limming faker+marci is a win 90% of the time?

[skitter30]

am vaguely frustrated that Isis is shoving her.

Tell me abt it

[Faker]

My sincerest apologies to Cakez. I have done misrepresented and done him a great disservice by classifying his read on the worst as a gut read. The real reasoning presented was nuanced, rational, and showed extensive death. Gut had nothing to do with it.

For the sake of academic integrity, I will not again try and fail to characterize risk misrepresenting this complex and nuanced argument. I will instead let it speak for itself, quoting here for convenience.

which is completely nonsensical on several fronts here.

how? I had a tone town read on worst like all game.

The worsts interactions right before repping out were so genuine. I can't believe he faked those.

I apologize for ever thinking this was a gut read.

[skitter30]

hmm ok, so if she's town, Pav went over with 0 maf on that wagon? like, I know it's not beneficial AT ALL for maf to lim one of themselves early.. hmm maybe just voting off wagon would work..

Why are we all glossing over meuh again?