Open 854 | Eurybia's Curse | Game Over!

[SirCakez]

I'll even admit that some of Fakers points against Coral do look compelling - esp the interactions between Pav and Worst/Coral don't look good. But I don't want to touch that wagon with a 10 foot pole with so many bad Faker posts.

[SirCakez]

@Gamma I do think Fruit is scum, it was like a half-jokey comment. Sorry. The issue is that I also don’t think my read on him is very compelling because it’s coming from a perspective of the game that most people don’t have. (I townread most players)
My read on Fruit is more of a gamestate read than a Fruit read and I don’t find his ISO particularly compelling

PEdit: VOTE: The Ugly Fruit

And this post is just as bad if not worse then the points Faker is making against Coral

[Coral]

I didn't include the most important part of that which means I'm just going to look at Meuh/Cakez and pick one to vote. If I feel like it I will revisit skitter but I honestly liked her interactions with Aristeia enough to call it quits.

And this is so fake (haha pun haha) like I haven't seen a single Faker post that would make me think they would actually vote Meuh

This is actually a pretty good point!

There's a bit of a disconnect between Faker's posts where she presents the mentality of "at some point soon ill finally have a stance on Meuh vs cakez" and... all of her other ones, where she seems to mostly be strongly casing Cakez and mostly pushing back against scumreads on Meuh. Going from 2861 to mostly keeping Cakez near the bottom of her reads consistently, but never really pushing there hard... it's actually probably exactly how she'd play things as scum who isn't planning to escape. Put most of her focus in this day phase into one slot who looks believably paired with her partner (ari seems to think that I could be paired with Meuh), and then be willing to compromise onto a second scumread while letting her escaping partner do the dirty work of pushing things in that direction. The issue is that her apparent indecision doesn't actually match with any of the points she's presented so far.

[Coral]

Looking back at the Gamma wagon to see if this is even a believable pairing... the posts starting around 302 feel like more aggressive distancing than I would probably expect the scum team to go for? Setting up two leading wagons on scum seems pretty dangerous. Then again, bussing one would be pretty major townpoints for the second. I think that world is believable with 316 and 318: criticize someone for voting Meuh, then somewhat weakly say there's good points against Meuh made by town, and then say the wagon on Meuh is opportunistic and vote the counter. In a world where the planned flip order is Gamma -> Pav -> Meuh, I think that's a strategy they could go for.

355 is a bizarre post and definitely feels like an attempt to make sure that town comes away from recent events with a certain narrative, which does lend some weight to the idea that there was some planning going on behind it.

When the Gamma wagon rises up again, Meuh is actually the one who starts the movement from Gamma to Beat in 1031. Going back to a post that I've thought about a lot, 1918... in this world, it would be an extremely bold post to make, considering she would be the scum that helped move things away from Gamma. I guess she might still be willing if she's still planning to flip last. Obviously, the plan would have changed when Faker arrived.

I think it's possible? I'm not really sure that it's the most likely scenario here but there are things that point that way and I haven't found anything that really feels like it rules it out yet.

[skitter30]

Fwiw i'm also a little confused why you dropped me to vote cakez

It's because Meuh is scum and saw that they could get more traction on me then you and they're probably going to escape after flipping me. It's pretty obvious.

Yes i'm aware i wanted to see if she would have some sort of decent reason for doing so

(Narratoe: she doesnt)

[skitter30]

And where's the scum on the Beat wagon? Why is this being ignored?

I mean technically not every wagon needs a scum on it

But faker that would be a good thing to address actually

[Faker]

I noticed it and didn't care, I don't give a shit about VCA and don't do it. No scum was under threat Day 1.

[Coral]

Also the quick unvotes on Gamma (I did it too but I'm a townie), the way Beat chainsaw defended Pav after I placed my vote there, the way Pav got townread early, despite not doing much to warrant that imo.

While looking back, I found this (and 579, where she boosts up Titus for the theory of Beat chainsawing for Pav). I'm not sure if they've really been brought up, but I think it's a little strange to focus most of her attention on Beat here.

[Faker]

My Meuh/Cakez post was made at the time when I had my preference as Coral->Cakez->Meuh->skitter->marcistar.

I was strongly townreading skitter's interactions with Aristeia in the 40s page range, particularly when Aristeia backed off and skitter kept going well past the scum-beneficial expiration date. I continued reading, saw good posts by Meuh (the first two votes on Pav+their timings) while skitter's posts were mostly null and I had doubts while driving that the team was not exactly skitter/Coral.

There's no random switchup or dropoff here, you can literally track this yourself. I've not had as strong of a takeaway on Meuh as I wish I would, but the pressure on me to do so has

frequently been put by myself

. The idea I'd just drop the ball and never try to put together some decent read on her as scum here is ?????

[Faker]

I'm sorry, but for the VCA people/wagonomics people, is the argument here that I am scum with Meuh? And this was the triple-scum reaction to a scum wagon?

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Not engaging with my response to GL’s argument at all, not asking me any questions to try sorting me, just echoing what’s already been said.
You have more experience playing with me (and a more accurate history of reading me) than GL and you’ve already seen Marci’s D1 tonal reads on me be very wrong.
The fact you’re willing to just go along with this push and rely on Marci/GL would be more understandable if we had never played together.
But here, I think it’s pretty telling.

I think this is fair and I sense there may be opportunism in the Meuh votes so I'm gonna trust my gut for the moment and see where this goes

VOTE: Gamma

Absolute garbage

[Faker]

I'll even admit that some of Fakers points against Coral do look compelling - esp the interactions between Pav and Worst/Coral don't look good. But I don't want to touch that wagon with a 10 foot pole with so many bad Faker posts.

You literally called this one of the biggest reaches yesterday. What the fuck is wrong with them now in your mind?

[Faker]

Fwiw i'm also a little confused why you dropped me to vote cakez

It's obv Faker x Meuh and that's why Faker suddenly started going all in on Coral and me bc they needed to divert the wagons

HOLY SHIT LMFAO

THIS IS A REAL POST/POINT

HOLY SHIT YES I AM BLOCKING A SKITTER-VOTE AND REFUSING TO VOTE YOU UP UNTIL THE DEADLINE, WHICH LEAVES MY PARTNER AND CORAL AS THE ONLY VIABLE WAGONS

ABSOLUTELY

JUST COMPLETELY THROWING THE GAME FOR ZERO REASON

[Coral]

There's no random switchup or dropoff here, you can literally track this yourself. I've not had as strong of a takeaway on Meuh as I wish I would, but the pressure on me to do so has frequently been put by myself. The idea I'd just drop the ball and never try to put together some decent read on her as scum here is ?????

I don't think you'd plan to never put together a decent read on her. That's not the point at all. I think you've talked about her and engaged with her posts to a suitable level.

What I'm confused about is why you were still portraying it as if you had her and Cakez on relatively equal levels, while at the same time, in the actual fine detail points that you had been making up to that point, there didn't seem to be any reason that they

would

be at the same level

[Faker]

It actually blows my mind what people on this website think passes for a good strategic plan, holy fuck I don't know whether to laugh or be tilted out of my mind

Everything about my play today is practically begging the town to ignore my push on Coral and vote out Meuh and you actually interpreted that as S/S holy shit

[Coral]

HOLY SHIT YES I AM BLOCKING A SKITTER-VOTE AND REFUSING TO VOTE YOU UP UNTIL THE DEADLINE, WHICH LEAVES MY PARTNER AND CORAL AS THE ONLY VIABLE WAGONS

Townblock controls the elimination. I don't believe that your genuine read of the gamestate at this time is that me and Meuh are the only viable wagons.

[Coral]

Everything about my play today is practically begging the town to ignore my push on Coral and vote out Meuh and you actually interpreted that as S/S holy shit

What posts do this, in your view? I have seen nothing from you that gives the impression you want this.

[Faker]

What I'm confused about is why you were still portraying it as if you had her and Cakez on relatively equal levels, while at the same time, in the actual fine detail points that you had been making up to that point, there didn't seem to be any reason that they would be at the same level

I had two players in my town bucket. I had one player in my scum bucket.

I have two players left in the bucket. I lean one over the other but have not been confident in my ability to read either, one because she's proved less transparent than I've expected, the other because he is perpetual limbait.

Which set of players am I likely to read in? Does having a slight preference for one mean I should not read both?

[Faker]

HOLY SHIT YES I AM BLOCKING A SKITTER-VOTE AND REFUSING TO VOTE YOU UP UNTIL THE DEADLINE, WHICH LEAVES MY PARTNER AND CORAL AS THE ONLY VIABLE WAGONS

Townblock controls the elimination. I don't believe that your genuine read of the gamestate at this time is that me and Meuh are the only viable wagons.

Everything about my play today is practically begging the town to ignore my push on Coral and vote out Meuh and you actually interpreted that as S/S holy shit

What posts do this, in your view? I have seen nothing from you that gives the impression you want this.

Continually stalling out my readthrough to burn deadline time, posts to Isis/Andante were very likely to derail the Coral wagon, not going on Cakez who is the most viable target and not even mustering up a vote on him as the alternative wagon. Right now the game for Faker-scum would be set up for a Coral 1v1 Day 5 but that requires my partner to make it through Day 4 and for the flip to not instantly sink me. Both of these are untrue for Meuh.

Depending on who I want to escape my approach differs in engaging Cakez/Meuh with same outcome. If I want to escape I defuse the 1v1 with skitter and try to sell her on Meuh being town, it's not very dangerous to do so because I will be interpreted as WIFOMing on flip if I'm the one who escapes. The goal is then to shift with her over to Cakez. If I'd rather Meuh escape, I take a more directly aggressive approach to Cakez instead.

[Coral]

What I'm confused about is why you were still portraying it as if you had her and Cakez on relatively equal levels, while at the same time, in the actual fine detail points that you had been making up to that point, there didn't seem to be any reason that they would be at the same level

I had two players in my town bucket. I had one player in my scum bucket.

I have two players left in the bucket. I lean one over the other but have not been confident in my ability to read either, one because she's proved less transparent than I've expected, the other because he is perpetual limbait.

Which set of players am I likely to read in? Does having a slight preference for one mean I should not read both?

I think this is a believable stance to have, but I don't really think it's what's presented by your posts, specifically 3858 and 3894. It seems like you were delaying a pivot onto Cakez until... whatever opportune moment you were looking for to arise.

[Faker]

Literally the name of this game for Faker-scum is to stall the fuck out of the game and force town to make an egregious error wagoning as deadline approaches.

That doesn't work if they default vote Meuh.

[marcistar]

are u buddying me faker

[Coral]

Continually stalling out my readthrough to burn deadline time, posts to Isis/Andante were very likely to derail the Coral wagon, not going on Cakez who is the most viable target and not even mustering up a vote on him as the alternative wagon. Right now the game for Faker-scum would be set up for a Coral 1v1 Day 5 but that requires my partner to make it through Day 4 and for the flip to not instantly sink me. Both of these are untrue for Meuh

I don't think anyone was strongly considering a Faker/Meuh pairing until recently (to my knowledge, I hadn't seen it mentioned and I didn't have it as a top possibility myself) and I don't think Meuh is even the most likely elim at the moment, so I don't think they're both untrue.

Wouldn't going aggressive on Cakez to derail the Meuh wagon sink you faster? Rather than trying to let Meuh do that work herself and let the town head that way only for you to compromise there if necessary once your preferred flip of me isn't viable anymore?

[SirCakez]

The goal for Faker scum is obv to chain lim Coral and me after Meuh escapes tonight

[Coral]

Literally the name of this game for Faker-scum is to stall the fuck out of the game and force town to make an egregious error wagoning as deadline approaches.

That doesn't work if they default vote Meuh.

I don't really think town is default voting Meuh here? GL wants Cakez at last check. Isis probably prefers Cakez to Meuh, to my understanding. Ari, I'm not sure, she used to want Meuh but I'm not sure if that's still the case. Titus hasn't gotten caught up yet, but you may be able to predict where she will go, I have no idea. Andante is unpredictable.

[SirCakez]

It actually blows my mind what people on this website think passes for a good strategic plan, holy fuck I don't know whether to laugh or be tilted out of my mind

Everything about my play today is practically begging the town to ignore my push on Coral and vote out Meuh and you actually interpreted that as S/S holy shit

This literally doesn't make any sense