LOST (Game Over)

[T-Bone]

I look good doing this too.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Spoiler: Updated Chart So Far

So Far:

Top Townreads:

Lukewarm - 19 TRs
Rad - 17 TRs
Dunn - 16 TRs - 2 SRs
CSF - 14 TRs
Pooky - 14 TRs


Top Scumreads:

BBT - 12 SRs - 2 TRs
Toad - 11 SRs - 1 TR
Ceph - 8 SRs - 2 TRs


No Consensus:

Bell - 12 TRs - 7 SRs
OTH - 12 TRs - 5 SRs


Mostly Null:

D-Lee 3 TR 2 SR 17 Nulls
Bella 5 TR 1 SR 16 Nulls
C+G 5 TR 2 SR 15 Nulls

[Corwinoid]

T-bone's posting isn't making any sense for anyone paying attention.

Explain?

T-Bone tracks IMO, even if the conclusion is wrong.

What do you read BBT as and why?

Nullish. I can see him doing everything he's done so far as scum or town, and deciding to do it for scum, town, or metablocking reasons.

I think he's barking up the wrong tree here, but I can't put a finger on why I town read you other than "vibe" either.

[T-Bone]

T-bone's posting isn't making any sense for anyone paying attention.

Explain?

T-Bone tracks IMO, even if the conclusion is wrong.

What do you read BBT as and why?

Nullish. I can see him doing everything he's done so far as scum or town, and deciding to do it for scum, town, or metablocking reasons.

I think he's barking up the wrong tree here, but I can't put a finger on why I town read you other than "vibe" either.

Funny enough I agree.

[Bellaphant]

It's actually more interesting that bbt sprung up as the ceph counter, in hindsight.
P-edit I'm going to have to iso Dunn aren't I.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I get the sense Johnny is a low content poster overall. Sorry Johnny.

I mean you're not wrong

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Explain?

T-Bone tracks IMO, even if the conclusion is wrong.

Because it doesn't matter if what I said and what he said is the same thing or not. The premise is the same that what happened outside of this game has absolutely no relevance on what is happening in this game.

Further, he then says that my response is an attempt to manipulate people. Can you explain how my response is an attempt to manipulate people? Because I don't see it.

If anything, his response about Frog and myself is a manipulation of the game state in trying to ensure that two of the leading wagons stay exactly where they are.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

It's actually more interesting that bbt sprung up as the ceph counter, in hindsight.
P-edit I'm going to have to iso Dunn aren't I.

Bella, I really need you to move away from Ceph please.

Can you have a look at Penguin? Or OTH?

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

Let me help you with your vca argument: counterwagons are a fake concept 99 times out of 100

Not true, while obviously not foolproof, they are often far more useful than that.

VCAs for example rarely have two competing scumwagons though it does happen, so in like approximately 78% of cases, if you flip scum. the cw is statistically highly likely to be town.

im not interested in an extended argument about how probability works since it invariably convinces no one of anything, so i will just stop at "that isn't how probability works"

+1 with the exception if anyone here is a stats teacher. I've been persuaded once before using probability by a retired stats teacher.

I have a math degree. I hate explaining math to people. Unless it's incredibly relevant I'm keeping 'real' stats out of my entertainment life.

I thought you were getting run up pretty flimsyily but I do not like this. The last time I saw this argument both players were scum lol. How strange.

Ewwww.

The last time I got wagoned I was town. So what?

Also not how stats works.

@Corwin

You don't have to engage if you don't want to, I know you don't want an extended discussion, but I thought you might want a brief chance to flex. I consider it potentially AI and there is something I'm looking for.

I'm mainly looking to hear if I'm on the right track or I need to retake 101.

My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility", because her results don't indicate to me that the CW slot is any likelier to flip town (78%) than any other random slot after 1 scum is taken out of the pool. Her argument is incomplete at best because she fails to specify what situation she's referring to (limlo? 13 player? 10 town - 5 scum?) and what the random chance to flip town should be if the CW placement has no effect. 78% sounds like a number which can be achieved by random chance anyway, depending on the setup and the Day, which makes me suspicious about her argument.

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway. Her statement being true doesn't provide evidence that her theory about the CW has predictive utility unless a CW has a statistically significant effect on the flip rate compared to the random chance of any other slot, which is something she can't provide meaningful evidence for anecdotally, even if her intuition is ultimately correct.

Do you think I am a stats noob or do you think I retained some information from my psychology courses?

[Bell]

I get the sense Johnny is a low content poster overall. Sorry Johnny.

I mean you're not wrong

The difference is that I don’t see much like a desire to solve from them either. Which is AI.

[Bell]

I feel better about corwin

[Bell]

Has malakittens ever claimed a role out the gate like that as scum?
You’d think at least her scum team would stop her. But I understand the concern there.
I know Luke said the roles might be divorced from alignment but can you imagine a more worthless role than a scum player that can talk with the dead?

[Bell]

JF, Penguin, C&g, Taly, Roden.

[Bell]

And I guess enchant but they’re just auto In there tbh. They sound alone though.
Kind of. Just a weird feeling.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I know Luke said the roles might be divorced from alignment but can you imagine a more worthless role than a scum player that can talk with the dead?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13054811

[T-Bone]

If you build it, they will come.

[Bell]

I know Luke said the roles might be divorced from alignment but can you imagine a more worthless role than a scum player that can talk with the dead?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13054811

504. Point not found.

[Frogsterking]

JF, Penguin, C&g, Taly, Roden.

This is your scum list?

[T-Bone]

Spoiler:

Let me help you with your vca argument: counterwagons are a fake concept 99 times out of 100

Not true, while obviously not foolproof, they are often far more useful than that.

VCAs for example rarely have two competing scumwagons though it does happen, so in like approximately 78% of cases, if you flip scum. the cw is statistically highly likely to be town.

im not interested in an extended argument about how probability works since it invariably convinces no one of anything, so i will just stop at "that isn't how probability works"

+1 with the exception if anyone here is a stats teacher. I've been persuaded once before using probability by a retired stats teacher.

I have a math degree. I hate explaining math to people. Unless it's incredibly relevant I'm keeping 'real' stats out of my entertainment life.

I thought you were getting run up pretty flimsyily but I do not like this. The last time I saw this argument both players were scum lol. How strange.

Ewwww.

The last time I got wagoned I was town. So what?

Also not how stats works.

@Corwin

You don't have to engage if you don't want to, I know you don't want an extended discussion, but I thought you might want a brief chance to flex. I consider it potentially AI and there is something I'm looking for.

I'm mainly looking to hear if I'm on the right track or I need to retake 101.

My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility", because her results don't indicate to me that the CW slot is any likelier to flip town (78%) than any other random slot after 1 scum is taken out of the pool. Her argument is incomplete at best because she fails to specify what situation she's referring to (limlo? 13 player? 10 town - 5 scum?) and what the random chance to flip town should be if the CW placement has no effect. 78% sounds like a number which can be achieved by random chance anyway, depending on the setup and the Day, which makes me suspicious about her argument.

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway. Her statement being true doesn't provide evidence that her theory about the CW has predictive utility unless a CW has a statistically significant effect on the flip rate compared to the random chance of any other slot, which is something she can't provide meaningful evidence for anecdotally, even if her intuition is ultimately correct.

Do you think I am a stats noob or do you think I retained some information from my psychology courses?

To be honest, and I'm getting into game theory slightly. This is why I say meta/vca is trash. It's part meme, but also because players can take advantage of that when their scum by providing meta/vca in lieu of game solving.

It's not a commentary on the Puppets at this point, I don't think they've done enough for me to say whether they are faking content or not.

[T-Bone]

I know that was directed at Corwin and tangentially related to what you said, but I think it's a useful consideration while you consider if this in alignment indicative or not.

[Bell]

Nvm, found it. That’s pretty messed up on Sanae.
Well it’s not like it doesn’t make perfect sense for MALA to be the MiB but as someone mentioned, flavor/alignment.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I know Luke said the roles might be divorced from alignment but can you imagine a more worthless role than a scum player that can talk with the dead?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13054811

504. Point not found.

that's a scum role that can talk with the dead.

also another flavor point

Spoiler: Lost Spoilers in Here don't click if you don't want to see show spoilers

The Main Bad Guy in Lost(The Smoke Monster) can manifest as dead people. https://lostpedia.fandom.com/wiki/The_Man_in_Black

[Cat Scratch Fever]

JF, Penguin, C&g, Taly, Roden.

This is your scum list?

I liked PP's interactions with Dunnstral; it felt aggressive enough to be townie for him

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler: Readlists So Far

Highlights so far:

BBT is the most susp'd person - 14 scumreads 0 townreads.
Lukewarm is the most townread person - 19 townreads 0 scumreads.

Does this mean that your gonna try to kill me now pooky?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Corwin -> town
Dancing Puppets -> null
Galron -> null
Taly -> red
Johnny -> red